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The Death of Inflation

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Feb 2, 2021 | 13:55 31 Commonly refered to as keeping it all up front. Reply With Quote
ajl
Feb 2, 2021 | 14:36 32
Quote Originally Posted by Taiga View Post
Absolutely, look at this cluster-*** insolvency, banks are/were just handing money out with very little regard to profitability. I guess the shine wears off every OYF eventually.

https://www.bowragroup.com/kalcofarms
Farming has been pretty nasty in this area for the past 5-6 years. Used to be one counted on 50-60 bu canola routinely but the average has likely slipped under 40 from the past five years due to ongoing poor weather. (That is why canola is $16) There has been a lot of unseeded acres, drying costs and spring harvests ongoing in this area and these guys were farming a lot of rented land as I only counted 10.5 quarters on the asset list. A lot of land was bought by speculators in the industrial heartland around Ft Saskatchewan and that was a lot of their land base, Rented land has not been profitable for years but some of it is now after the price rally if you did not have to sell last fall to catch up on rent payments. Reply With Quote
Feb 2, 2021 | 19:31 33
Quote Originally Posted by Taiga View Post
Absolutely, look at this cluster-*** insolvency, banks are/were just handing money out with very little regard to profitability. I guess the shine wears off every OYF eventually.

https://www.bowragroup.com/kalcofarms
I can't say if I am laughing or not but it is truly funny that this is the farm that makes the cover of every Ag publication. Twitter account probably even a website that say how they "grow food to feed the world". All fake and show, absolutely disgusts me. Reply With Quote
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  • helmsdale's Avatar Feb 2, 2021 | 19:51 34
    Quote Originally Posted by Richard5 View Post
    I can't say if I am laughing or not but it is truly funny that this is the farm that makes the cover of every Ag publication. Twitter account probably even a website that say how they "grow food to feed the world". All fake and show, absolutely disgusts me.
    Being a 2013 OYF alumni they really bought into the mantra. Their website has ALL the catch phrases.

    Heavy emphasis on:
    -scale
    -efficient
    -innovative
    -sustainable
    -technology
    -education
    -networking
    -"partnering for growth"

    -" We are constantly searching for opportunities to partner with others through innovative relationships or investments."

    Each to their own... Reply With Quote
    Feb 2, 2021 | 20:49 35 and "lean management" Reply With Quote
    Ab7
    Feb 3, 2021 | 01:32 36
    Quote Originally Posted by caseih View Post
    and "lean management"
    Those interest rates seem pretty steep Reply With Quote
    blackpowder's Avatar Feb 3, 2021 | 09:39 37 I can't say if having a positive attitude is a bad thing.
    But it is when you don't learn from being kicked in the gonads or are kicked too late.
    It can become a dangerous bias. Reply With Quote
    Mar 4, 2021 | 13:09 38 Fed Chair Powell stated this morning . . . "Economic reopening cause inflation to pick up temporarily"

    These few, simple words have created quite a knee-jerk reaction and equities and commodities. Stock investors appear running for the exit door once again on just-the-thought of rising bond yields.

    Metals are getting crushed, which is not a sign-of-inflationary risk (IMO). Copper after soaring to near decade highs recently is now getting hammered. Gold prices are breaking below $1,700 per oz. Silver is in a dive. This reaction suggests the case for inflation is weak at-best. Deflation may again be licking on the doorstep (IMO) and the greatest fear of the central banker.

    Moral of any market story . . . when everyone is on one side of the ship, it's time to be on the other side. Reply With Quote
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  • Mar 4, 2021 | 13:34 39
    Quote Originally Posted by errolanderson View Post
    Fed Chair Powell stated this morning . . . "Economic reopening cause inflation to pick up temporarily"

    These few, simple words have created quite a knee-jerk reaction and equities and commodities. Stock investors appear running for the exit door once again on just-the-thought of rising bond yields.

    Metals are getting crushed, which is not a sign-of-inflationary risk (IMO). Copper after soaring to near decade highs recently is now getting hammered. Gold prices are breaking below $1,700 per oz. Silver is in a dive. This reaction suggests the case for inflation is weak at-best. Deflation may again be licking on the doorstep (IMO) and the greatest fear of the central banker.

    Moral of any market story . . . when everyone is on one side of the ship, it's time to be on the other side.
    Errol I challenge you to find someone in North America that has experienced deflation throughout their lifetime.
    Things do correct but overall have always inflated over time. Reply With Quote
    Mar 4, 2021 | 13:43 40
    Quote Originally Posted by jwab View Post
    Errol I challenge you to find someone in North America that has experienced deflation throughout their lifetime.
    Things do correct but overall have always inflated over time.
    Talk to any cattle feeder . . . . Reply With Quote
    Mar 4, 2021 | 15:36 41 Markets could be a hair-trigger away from potential mass asset deflation (IMO) . . . .

    The recipe mix is a break in the stock market held-up by overly-abused central bank money printing (stimulus) and overly-abused free money policies. Investors know valuations are excessive, but that has been little concern as the Fed has-their-back. But any hint of rate hikes and/or ideas the Fed has actually lost control of the bond market will have an immediate impact . . . Equities appear already experiencing symptoms. The NASDAQ has turned negative for the year . . . today.

    Should equities break, commodities are also exposed due to global credit risks. Money printing doesn't solve credit risks. Also, central bank intervention is very long-in-the-tooth and may not be enough to rite-a-sinking-ship the next time around (IMO). Velocity-of-money has slowed considerably . . . translation: money printing is having less and less of an impact holding the market glue together.

    My opinion: this begs of potential incoming deflationary risks that could surprise investors and impact markets quickly. Realize, central banks rely on inflation and inflation talk, but those days are over (IMO).

    My opinion . . . realize that many Agrivillers do not agree. Reply With Quote
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  • Mar 4, 2021 | 16:05 42 I for one agree with you Errol. I just can't figure out how to profit from this information. Without a timeline, how does one put this to use? Waiting for the inevitable deflationary event would have put an investor on the wrong side of history for as long as I have been hearing about it.

    And when it does occur, it will be so spectacular, wide ranging and swift, that I'm not sure we even could prepare for it. Reply With Quote
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  • biglentil's Avatar Mar 4, 2021 | 16:19 43
    Quote Originally Posted by errolanderson View Post
    Markets could be a hair-trigger away from potential mass asset deflation (IMO) . . . .

    The recipe mix is a break in the stock market held-up by overly-abused central bank money printing (stimulus) and overly-abused free money policies. Investors know valuations are excessive, but that has been little concern as the Fed has-their-back. But any hint of rate hikes and/or ideas the Fed has actually lost control of the bond market will have an immediate impact . . . Equities appear already experiencing symptoms. The NASDAQ has turned negative for the year . . . today.

    Should equities break, commodities are also exposed due to global credit risks. Money printing doesn't solve credit risks. Also, central bank intervention is very long-in-the-tooth and may not be enough to rite-a-sinking-ship the next time around (IMO). Velocity-of-money has slowed considerably . . . translation: money printing is having less and less of an impact holding the market glue together.

    My opinion: this begs of potential incoming deflationary risks that could surprise investors and impact markets quickly. Realize, central banks rely on inflation and inflation talk, but those days are over (IMO).

    My opinion . . . realize that many Agrivillers do not agree.
    If money printing does not cause inflation why not print a quadrillion?
    Last edited by biglentil; Mar 4, 2021 at 16:24.
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    Mar 4, 2021 | 17:40 44 A falling interest rate trend in fiat currency is primarily deflationary. Retail prices can rise due to non-monetary factors like supply disruptions and regulatory compliance measures. So price rises are not all due to what is usually called "printing" money.

    The gold price is falling simply because it has an inverse relationship to interest rates. Because debt levels have exploded over the past year (and for many years prior to that) no one should be surprised that there is tension in the capital markets as borrowers try to find buyers for their debt. It looks like the central banks are resisting the urge to buy that debt, but it won't last.

    If central banks did not intervene, interest rates would climb like a homesick angel. Governments are petrified of that because then the days of easy deficit financing would be over in an instant, so they will pressure central banks to get into the bond market.

    If you want to see inflation, just look at asset prices, which rise in an inverse manner to interest rates. My friend in Vancouver knows someone who just bought a dump there to tear down and put up a duplex for $1.3 million. Two weeks after the purchase, the contractor offered $1.8 million.

    Being able to buy a cheap TV is not necessarily a sign of economic progress. Being able to purchase a house at reasonable cost and save for retirement are what denotes progress. The latter are under threat right now. Reply With Quote
    biglentil's Avatar Mar 4, 2021 | 18:04 45
    Quote Originally Posted by Austrian Economics View Post
    A falling interest rate trend in fiat currency is primarily deflationary. Retail prices can rise due to non-monetary factors like supply disruptions and regulatory compliance measures. So price rises are not all due to what is usually called "printing" money.

    The gold price is falling simply because it has an inverse relationship to interest rates. Because debt levels have exploded over the past year (and for many years prior to that) no one should be surprised that there is tension in the capital markets as borrowers try to find buyers for their debt. It looks like the central banks are resisting the urge to buy that debt, but it won't last.

    If central banks did not intervene, interest rates would climb like a homesick angel. Governments are petrified of that because then the days of easy deficit financing would be over in an instant, so they will pressure central banks to get into the bond market.

    If you want to see inflation, just look at asset prices, which rise in an inverse manner to interest rates. My friend in Vancouver knows someone who just bought a dump there to tear down and put up a duplex for $1.3 million. Two weeks after the purchase, the contractor offered $1.8 million.

    Being able to buy a cheap TV is not necessarily a sign of economic progress. Being able to purchase a house at reasonable cost and save for retirement are what denotes progress. The latter are under threat right now.
    Falling interest rates are deflationary? I don't think the Austrian School of thought and Von Mises would agree with you. Reply With Quote
    Mar 4, 2021 | 19:06 46
    Quote Originally Posted by biglentil View Post
    Falling interest rates are deflationary? I don't think the Austrian School of thought and Von Mises would agree with you.
    They don't for the most part. Von Mises subscribed to the quantity theory of money and I have to disagree with him on the rising quantity of money=inflation theory.

    I follow the theory of lesser known Austrian economists like Carl Menger (who actually started the Austrian School) and, in particular, Antal Fekete. Fekete held that the main driver of commodity price inflation is interest rates. The 70s were a period of rising interest rates, hence rising commodity prices. We are now in the falling cycle, so commodity prices will trend downward.

    Fekete grew up in Hungary but taught at Memorial University here in Canada for many years.

    Although deceased, Fekete's writings are still up on his website: https://professorfekete.com/ Reply With Quote
    biglentil's Avatar Mar 4, 2021 | 19:38 47
    Quote Originally Posted by Austrian Economics View Post
    They don't for the most part. Von Mises subscribed to the quantity theory of money and I have to disagree with him on the rising quantity of money=inflation theory.

    I follow the theory of lesser known Austrian economists like Carl Menger (who actually started the Austrian School) and, in particular, Antal Fekete. Fekete held that the main driver of commodity price inflation is interest rates. The 70s were a period of rising interest rates, hence rising commodity prices. We are now in the falling cycle, so commodity prices will trend downward.

    Fekete grew up in Hungary but taught at Memorial University here in Canada for many years.

    Although deceased, Fekete's writings are still up on his website: https://professorfekete.com/
    Interest rates rise as a delayed reaction by CB's to cool inflation. Volcker raised rates to 20% to cool inflation in the early 80's. That option doesn't exist this time around without bankrupting nearly all of mainstreet. Its no wonder why there is terrible demand for government bonds. As long as real interest rates (nominal-inflation) are negative commodities are a better place to park money. All the jawboning in the world by the fed won't save the bond market, the market is recognizing that inflation is running hot. The repo market needs more bailing out. Hyperinflation however has virtually nothing to do with the quantity of money and everything to do with confidence in money.
    Last edited by biglentil; Mar 4, 2021 at 20:13.
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  • Mar 4, 2021 | 20:20 48
    Quote Originally Posted by errolanderson View Post
    Talk to any cattle feeder . . . .
    Cattle prices are lower than 20-30-40-50 years ago??

    Even if the 80’s repeated long term things still likely to go higher unless the “great reset” changes the way things have historically gone.
    Last edited by jwab; Mar 4, 2021 at 20:25.
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    Mar 4, 2021 | 20:29 49
    Quote Originally Posted by AlbertaFarmer5 View Post
    I for one agree with you Errol. I just can't figure out how to profit from this information. Without a timeline, how does one put this to use? Waiting for the inevitable deflationary event would have put an investor on the wrong side of history for as long as I have been hearing about it.

    And when it does occur, it will be so spectacular, wide ranging and swift, that I'm not sure we even could prepare for it.
    Short the stock market, hold for 10 years and see where you’re at. After all the stock market is the sign of how the economy is doing.

    I think the market is a sham but I bet in 10 years you’d have been better to invest in it not short it. Reply With Quote

  • biglentil's Avatar Mar 4, 2021 | 20:38 50 Reply With Quote
    biglentil's Avatar Mar 4, 2021 | 22:48 51 Reply With Quote
    Mar 5, 2021 | 07:55 52
    Quote Originally Posted by biglentil View Post
    Hard to know which way things will go next. Lots of opinions and theories. All interesting but not sure I'd put too much faith in any of them.
    But I certainly agree that CPI is no longer a relevant indicator of inflationary pressure. Outdated methodology and irrelevant to many Canadians.
    Regarding the fed, we can probably all agree that central bank will continue to look for ways to manipulate the economy and avoid a big crash at all costs. Trillion dollar question is: Are they up to the task?
    When other monetary policies fall short of delivering intended outcomes, its probably reasonable to expect more direct stock market manipulation and other forms of QE, central bank intervention in commercial credit markets.
    Used in tandem, the fed might be able to nurse along the sick economy for a long time yet.
    But the time bomb seems to be ticking.
    Somewhere down the line, you'd have to think there will be a day of reckoning.
    Then again, my track record for predicting economic outcomes is 50/50 at best.
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/2020/06/23/will-the-market-crash-now-that-the-fed-stopped-pumping-the-stock-market/?sh=51e1408055f4 Reply With Quote
    jazz's Avatar Mar 5, 2021 | 08:23 53 If you think there is no inflation, look at the price of houses or cars. You cannot get a sub $30k vehicle anymore in any trim level. Anything close to that range would be a subcompact.

    We have to stop looking to the CPI numbers. They are a mirage. The real inflation is in assets and services not consumer goods...yet. But that could change now that we have wider inflation taking hold and new ESG and wealth taxation coming our way.

    The average joe has no idea whats coming their way. Many will be crying to be put on the govt dole permanently and just shelter in place forever.

    To keep china exporting the rest of the world needs to see a commensurate increase in COL so we never ever try to think that we can make anything here, except fiat debt.
    Last edited by jazz; Mar 5, 2021 at 08:25.
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  • Mar 5, 2021 | 08:52 54 i think most on here would agree that central banks have been kicking the can of raising interest rates to manage monetary policy down the road has been happening for years. an earlier poster said trying to guess timing and make money off it is the problem. i agree with that. look at the toronto and vancouver housing markets. we've been told that they have been overheated for years, and yet if you live there and haven't jumped on the bandwagon, you look like an idiot. same with farmland. how many of us have said "i'll never pay the price, i can't make any money at it." one thing i do believe. the longer central banks don't have the guts to tighten monetary policy and stop protecting stock investors, house speculation etc, the quicker and more painful the crash will be. Reply With Quote

  • biglentil's Avatar Mar 5, 2021 | 13:01 55 Looks like the complete opposite of "Death of Inflation" to me. Inflation searches way up according to Google trends signaling a significant shift in sentiment. Confidence in the purchasing power of the dollar is clearly waning. Expectations of inflation tend to create price inflation as people tend to buy today as they anticipate it will cost more tomorrow. Currency becomes a hot potato that no one wants to hold, velocity.

    Last edited by biglentil; Mar 5, 2021 at 18:11.
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    Mar 5, 2021 | 13:26 56
    Quote Originally Posted by jazz View Post
    If you think there is no inflation, look at the price of houses or cars. You cannot get a sub $30k vehicle anymore in any trim level. Anything close to that range would be a subcompact.

    We have to stop looking to the CPI numbers. They are a mirage. The real inflation is in assets and services not consumer goods...yet. But that could change now that we have wider inflation taking hold and new ESG and wealth taxation coming our way.

    The average joe has no idea whats coming their way. Many will be crying to be put on the govt dole permanently and just shelter in place forever.

    To keep china exporting the rest of the world needs to see a commensurate increase in COL so we never ever try to think that we can make anything here, except fiat debt.
    shit, look at everything
    just about all is 50-100% higher than a year and ahalf ago Reply With Quote
    biglentil's Avatar Mar 5, 2021 | 19:19 57
    Quote Originally Posted by caseih View Post
    shit, look at everything
    just about all is 50-100% higher than a year and ahalf ago
    In the Austrian school of econ we are in the crack up boom phase where the populace notices prices of everything rise. In the next phase the populace realizes that it's actually their dollars losing purchasing power. Reply With Quote
    Mar 5, 2021 | 20:01 58 Are economies heading into an inflationary depression?

    The Fed is hanging onto markets by the skin-of-their-teeth right now. If Powell says the word ‘inflation’, stock markets immediately tank. If Powell continues with current abusive money printing, markets will tank with failed money velocity (IMO).

    And if markets tank, the price of tractor tires and land prices triggering upside down mortgages won’t follow?

    Pick your poison . . . . Reply With Quote
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  • Mar 5, 2021 | 20:41 59
    Quote Originally Posted by errolanderson View Post
    Are economies heading into an inflationary depression?

    The Fed is hanging onto markets by the skin-of-their-teeth right now. If Powell says the word ‘inflation’, stock markets immediately tank. If Powell continues with current abusive money printing, markets will tank with failed money velocity (IMO).

    And if markets tank, the price of tractor tires and land prices triggering upside down mortgages won’t follow?

    Pick your poison . . . .
    Just enjoy the ride Errol. 🙂 Reply With Quote
    Mar 7, 2021 | 23:53 60 The U.S. Senate approved another $1.9 trillion in money printing on Saturday for unemployment benefits and and another round of free cheques and helicopter money.

    Stock markets not performing well given the mass gravy train was greased again this weekend.

    Economics and central bank policy at-its-absolute worst (IMO). This will not end well . . . .
    Last edited by errolanderson; Mar 8, 2021 at 00:00.
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