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Jan 24, 2021 | 03:16 1 Reading a few marketing forums tonight.

Despite this weeks moves canadian and usa farmers are super bullish.

EU/UK forums not quite so bullush but leaning that way.

I kinda struggle to see new highs unless usa canada have full blown drought and shes a big place.

Wouldnt wish drought upon anyone weve had our share.

So thinking ive gotta change my attitude and become perma bull.

Sask and jazz always bullish.

Saw this wheat chart.

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Last edited by malleefarmer; Jan 24, 2021 at 03:19.
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Jan 24, 2021 | 08:03 2 Still about 100 days of weather to happen before seeding here so lots could happen. BUT water table is below normal and forcasts starting to call for little moisture for next few months through western Canada. One massive snow storm I think would rattle markets. If pastures get rough start look for $100 round bales in Manitoba again! Reply With Quote
LEP
Jan 24, 2021 | 10:20 3 I subscribe to two weather newsletters. Both are calling for dryer growing season in North America. One says there is a potential for multi-year dryness. But alittle early to say accurately.

One thing for sure is ending stocks of canola, durum and lentils which are the crops that I grow are set to be tight which should help carry better pricing into the next crop year.

Just in time for StatsCanada and Agriculture Canada to call for a massive crop coming in July. Reply With Quote
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  • Jan 24, 2021 | 10:21 4 The bigger concern is at the present crush and exports pace canola and soybean stocks will be at 0 by July, market prices have to go up to ration demand. Reply With Quote
    Jan 24, 2021 | 10:25 5
    Quote Originally Posted by Old Cowzilla View Post
    Still about 100 days of weather to happen before seeding here so lots could happen. BUT water table is below normal and forcasts starting to call for little moisture for next few months through western Canada. One massive snow storm I think would rattle markets. If pastures get rough start look for $100 round bales in Manitoba again!
    We're about there now in this area. A dry start to the growing season crimped the 1st cut hay supply.

    Currently .08 to 12 cents a pound.

    New crop pricing opportunity will make plowing up that older hay field pretty tempting. Reply With Quote
    Jan 24, 2021 | 13:19 6
    Quote Originally Posted by Sodbuster View Post
    The bigger concern is at the present crush and exports pace canola and soybean stocks will be at 0 by July, market prices have to go up to ration demand.
    Not sure about canola substitution and forward demand but with regard to soybeans, demand will shift to SA in the near future. That will change the picture.
    But I do agree, right now there are few stocks left in the US. If sales were to continue at the present clip the States would be sold out in 4-6 weeks(with almost half a marketing year left to go) In the end actually shipped is all that matters.
    Prices could rise some more to accomplish that but maybe not as much as you think. The poor Real value has made domestic prices in Brazil reach record highs by a huge margin Reply With Quote
    blackpowder's Avatar Jan 24, 2021 | 13:49 7 I'm moderately bullish for the next six months. Inventories tight, politics the risk?
    Anything past July I wont even guess. 60% new crop sold by then. And yes, we will need timely rains as that will be the new crops only supply. Reply With Quote
    Jan 24, 2021 | 13:58 8 Not bullish mallee, I am just negative on Canada and the spread between the two economies.

    If you could see the wealth that has been squandered in this country you would be too. Hundred of billions in projects toasted by our govt and hundreds of billions in lost investment fleeing the country. Plus hundreds of billions in debt added now too. Canada is literally $2T poorer than 5 years ago. Reply With Quote
    Jan 24, 2021 | 14:06 9 Mallee a bit off but what are lamb prices there. The daughter sold the last of her lambs last week 85# 4.40$ per 100 weight. live weight ,cull ewe 130# 2.60$per 100 weight.
    Cant believe what the consumer must be paying,be nice if that is the new normal. On a 5 to 1 ratio to cows and 175% lamb crop thats $2800 per cow. Reply With Quote
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    LEP

  • Jan 24, 2021 | 14:13 10 I think it was Canola crazy that called this rally at or before harvest .
    Thumbs up 👍 for the heads up Reply With Quote
    Jan 24, 2021 | 14:23 11
    Quote Originally Posted by Horse View Post
    Mallee a bit off but what are lamb prices there. The daughter sold the last of her lambs last week 85# 4.40$ per 100 weight. live weight ,cull ewe 130# 2.60$per 100 weight.
    Cant believe what the consumer must be paying,be nice if that is the new normal. On a 5 to 1 ratio to cows and 175% lamb crop thats $2800 per cow.
    Lamb $8 per kilo dressed mtton older sheep $6.50 dressed per kg Reply With Quote
    Jan 24, 2021 | 14:24 12 Guess point of post weve had a fair shake down last week and many expect it to go backntonhighs some as quick a two weeks before going higher Reply With Quote
    Jan 24, 2021 | 14:41 13 What other marketing forums do you follow Mallee? Or anyone else.
    Do I read correctly that you found info from UK forums?
    Marketing posts on NAT are getting few and far between. Reply With Quote
    Jan 24, 2021 | 15:16 14 This is my main one, marketing info and discussion hits saturation point at times.........theres a dose of monday morning sarcasm......... Reply With Quote
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  • Jan 24, 2021 | 16:02 15
    Quote Originally Posted by malleefarmer View Post
    Lamb $8 per kilo dressed mtton older sheep $6.50 dressed per kg
    That would make our lamb price like $9.70/kilo live or over $20/kilo dressed , at about 48/50 % yield .guess better enjoy ,cant see the price staying that high..
    Water bowls froze here ,guess you dont have that to worry about. Reply With Quote
    Jan 24, 2021 | 16:58 16 Live price here $170 to $230 depending on weight Reply With Quote
    Jan 24, 2021 | 17:01 17 From my market commentator this morning over 900,000 metric tonne added to Russia 20/21 wheat will weigh heavily on market with it without taxes.

    Didn’t realize this missed it on market wires Reply With Quote