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Status of Keystone XL?

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helmsdale's Avatar Jan 20, 2021 | 20:49 1 Can report that the majority of the steel is in the ground from Hardisty to the SK/AB border.

The border crossing is complete:
https://www.tcenergy.com/operations/...ing-completed/

Questions that I'm struggling to find info on:

1) How much of the US side pipe is in the ground?
2) How much of the SK/AB border to SK/MT border is complete? Is there anyone along the right of way in SK that has an idea as to how things are going?

There is still a decent amount of money that is going to have to get spent remediating the right of way.

Workers went to work today from Oyen, but we'll see in the next couple days whether the parking lot continues to fill up every morning or not. Im thinking pink slips will be going out for the majority of the workforce. Wouldn't surprise me if they lift the camp right out of Oyen, and leave the remediation work to private companies.

Perhaps this is nothing more than, "the art of the deal"? Biden slams the door, drags TC to the bargaining table, gets concessions that he can sell to the green wing of his party, then eventually let it go through? Reply With Quote
helmsdale's Avatar Jan 20, 2021 | 20:57 2 Im seeing that Saskatchewan mainline construction activity isn't supposed to start until Q3 2021?

https://www.tcenergy.com/siteassets/...-xl-canada.pdf

Galaxie500 or anyone else in that burstall to val-marie corridor know if that's the case? Reply With Quote
Jan 20, 2021 | 21:06 3 That section Hardisty to Sk border is paralleling the original keystone project so that line might have some use after all as a loop or even just storage. I am sure TC had some expectation of this happening.

Isnt there a major rail upgrade happening at Oyen? Some synergies possible. Thats too much investment to walk away from. Maybe a co-located tank farm and rail it out. Reply With Quote
Jan 20, 2021 | 21:12 4 If it is just the border crossing that requires presidential approval, and the product is still in demand at the final destination, then who stops them from loading from pipeline into train cars at the border, then back into a pipeline on US side, and continues the trip unimpeded?

Dumber things have been done to work around bureaucracy. Most of the EU functions like that. Reply With Quote
LEP
Jan 20, 2021 | 21:18 5
Quote Originally Posted by jazz View Post
That section Hardisty to Sk border is paralleling the original keystone project so that line might have some use after all as a loop or even just storage. I am sure TC had some expectation of this happening.

Isnt there a major rail upgrade happening at Oyen? Some synergies possible. Thats too much investment to walk away from. Maybe a co-located tank farm and rail it out.
The size of that pipe you could load multiple trains a day running the pipeline on an idle.

Oyen to Saskatoon line has many 5 to 10 mph speed limit sections. It’s in need of some work.

No rail from Oyen west anymore.

Secure has a multi million dollar oil loading rail spur at Beadle Sask that hasn’t had much use in a couple years. Reply With Quote
ajl
Jan 20, 2021 | 21:27 6
Quote Originally Posted by jazz View Post
That section Hardisty to Sk border is paralleling the original keystone project so that line might have some use after all as a loop or even just storage. I am sure TC had some expectation of this happening.

Isnt there a major rail upgrade happening at Oyen? Some synergies possible. Thats too much investment to walk away from. Maybe a co-located tank farm and rail it out.
Alberta government is fronting the cash to do the AB section. Will likely be the only part built now. Reply With Quote
helmsdale's Avatar Jan 20, 2021 | 21:31 7
Quote Originally Posted by jazz View Post
That section Hardisty to Sk border is paralleling the original keystone project so that line might have some use after all as a loop or even just storage. I am sure TC had some expectation of this happening.

Isnt there a major rail upgrade happening at Oyen? Some synergies possible. Thats too much investment to walk away from. Maybe a co-located tank farm and rail it out.
They haven't done any "upgrades" at Oyen yet... CN hasn't exactly pumped alot of money into the stretch especially from Kindersley to Oyen. As far as sidings at Oyen are concerned, there is a plan to punch an additional siding in to unload wind turbines. Yes, god's country is going to get plastered with the largest wind turbines in Canada.

The Sharphills project halfway between Oyen and Consort is approved for 71 4.2MW nacelles. 300MW installed.

Lanfine project is expected to be ~90 3.2MW nacelles for ~290MW installed. Reply With Quote
Jan 20, 2021 | 21:42 8 Maybe all it takes to deal with sleepy Joe is someone appointed to the board with lots of experience with convenience payments like say maybe Hunter.

Lots of experience and proven untouchable. Reply With Quote
Jan 20, 2021 | 22:51 9 Trudeau will be smiling as he knows Alberta is getting screwed over by sleepy Joe.

Canada can sue the US government due to the USMCA. Reply With Quote
Jan 20, 2021 | 23:06 10
Quote Originally Posted by Oliver88 View Post
Trudeau will be smiling as he knows Alberta is getting screwed over by sleepy Joe.

Canada can sue the US government due to the USMCA.
I thought they could but read the article from Geoffrey Morgan in the Sun.
Think they may be screwed.

https://calgarysun.com/commodities/t...8-46b03c830bc5
or the most pertinent point
The amended presidential permit Trump signed on July 29, 2020, specifically states Keystone’s “permit may be terminated, revoked, or amended at any time at the sole discretion of the President, with or without advice provided by any executive department or agency.”
Last edited by mcfarms; Jan 20, 2021 at 23:09.
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SASKFARMER's Avatar Jan 21, 2021 | 05:50 11 This whole thing shows how Stupid Democrats really are.


59000 jobs will be created building the USA portion.

The money will be paid to ranchers and farmers along the way.

Follow the money.

Buffet and his toy train empire will reap the rewards and who does the old fool support.

Our idiot sits back and did nothing because if you haven't figured it out yet we mean nothing to Canada. Reply With Quote

  • Jan 21, 2021 | 07:32 12 Energy will be just like covid. Create a scenario where the people demand action due to fear or pain. its the easiest way to bring in policy.

    So you will see sleepy Joe ban fracking next probably. That should send crude higher. Then a nice little side deal with the Saudis to not add barrels. Add in a war probably in Syria this time with the US in there for real. And poof pain at the pumps and shortages too.

    People get freaked, demand change, we want renewables, now. Make some $10T debt laden crash program to start it.

    This is all basically the equivalent of wartime spending without the war (yet).

    But the average dude on the street has no idea of the realities of this change. We are talking doubling infrastructure and electric metal production to make this switch to renewables facilities that only have a 20yr life. Thats going to take a lot of oil to do and then it will have to do it again in 2040 to replace it all. Reply With Quote
    Jan 21, 2021 | 10:42 13 Will Skippy put tariffs on the USA or do any retaliation measures on the USA now that they are attacking our oil industry? Or will he say that he tried and Alberta should go to hell?

    Recall what he did when Ontario/Quebec aluminum & steel industry was attacked. Also look at how many laws Trudeau broke to help the scandal ridden SNC-Lavalin. Reply With Quote
    Jan 21, 2021 | 11:10 14
    Quote Originally Posted by Oliver88 View Post
    Will Skippy put tariffs on the USA or do any retaliation measures on the USA now that they are attacking our oil industry? Or will he say that he tried and Alberta should go to hell?

    Recall what he did when Ontario/Quebec aluminum & steel industry was attacked. Also look at how many laws Trudeau broke to help the scandal ridden SNC-Lavalin.
    Well Enbridge L5 could be the next target which supplies Sarnia feedstock and gasoline for Ontario and Quebec and jet fuel for Toronto. Michigan gets lots of supply from it as well.

    Eastern canada would have to bring products in from offshore in the maritimes which we could tanker there through transmountain via Panama. No wonder Alberta was adamant about getting at least that pipeline built. Opens up a lot of flexibility.

    No new pipelines will ever be built again but trying to shut down existing ones is a new game from the left. Reply With Quote

  • Jan 21, 2021 | 13:33 15
    Quote Originally Posted by Oliver88 View Post
    Will Skippy put tariffs on the USA or do any retaliation measures on the USA now that they are attacking our oil industry? Or will he say that he tried and Alberta should go to hell?

    Recall what he did when Ontario/Quebec aluminum & steel industry was attacked. Also look at how many laws Trudeau broke to help the scandal ridden SNC-Lavalin.
    The PM will aggressively attack the US with jaw dropping tariffs on their products entering Canada because he stands behind each and every Canadian.

    This means a 22% tariff on all illegal guns and a 24% tariff on all US flags entering Canada.

    And if that doesn't change their mind on Keystone he will hit them with a 3% tariff on office staples sold outside of Quebec .

    Please vote responsibly.
    Last edited by rumrocks; Jan 21, 2021 at 14:24.
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  • fjlip's Avatar Jan 21, 2021 | 14:18 16 Please vote responsively. or responsibly? Half of US and 60% of Canadians are irresponsible and like being on the Gov TIT! Swallow any bullsh*t left dumps in their ears. Fear and repeating lies really do work. Reply With Quote
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  • Jan 21, 2021 | 14:27 17
    Quote Originally Posted by fjlip View Post
    Please vote responsively. or responsibly? Half of US and 60% of Canadians are irresponsible and like being on the Gov TIT! Swallow any bullsh*t left dumps in their ears. Fear and repeating lies really do work.
    Fixed it, maybe that will trigger a recount in the next election. Reply With Quote
    GDR
    Jan 21, 2021 | 18:31 18
    Quote Originally Posted by jazz View Post
    Well Enbridge L5 could be the next target which supplies Sarnia feedstock and gasoline for Ontario and Quebec and jet fuel for Toronto. Michigan gets lots of supply from it as well.

    Eastern canada would have to bring products in from offshore in the maritimes which we could tanker there through transmountain via Panama. No wonder Alberta was adamant about getting at least that pipeline built. Opens up a lot of flexibility.

    No new pipelines will ever be built again but trying to shut down existing ones is a new game from the left.
    I know Line 5 shutting down would be bad for the west also and for refinery workers out east but boy it might be the wakeup call that is needed for Ontario and Quebec. Did hear an expert say today that because it goes through a couple other states besides Michigan that its Governor wouldnt be able to stop it by herself, becomes a federal issue. Reply With Quote
    Jan 21, 2021 | 19:10 19 Biden has every right to shut down Keystone, I don’t really agree with him signing a executive order, should of been put thru the house and senate but at the same time he should be made to pick up all costs associated with shutting it down. We will see what happens, but at the very least if the US won’t pick up the tab numb nuts should provide compensation for the project, someone is liable. Reply With Quote
    Jan 21, 2021 | 19:23 20 Xiden just getting warmed up.

    This is just a precurser to banning fracking and maybe banning drilling. Our PM ***uts is watching intently.

    Biden halts oil and gas leases, permits on US land and water

    By Associated Press | January 21, 2021 at 3:20 PM CST - Updated January 21 at 6:29 PM
    BILLINGS, Mont. (AP) — The Biden administration announced Thursday a 60-day suspension of new oil and gas leasing and drilling permits for U.S. lands and waters as officials moved quickly to reverse Trump administration policies on energy and the environment.

    The suspension, part of a broad review of programs at the Department of Interior, went into effect immediately under an order signed Wednesday by Acting Interior Secretary Scott de la Vega. It follows Democratic President Joe Biden’s campaign pledge to halt new drilling on federal lands and end the leasing of publicly owned energy reserves as part of his plan to address climate change.
    Last edited by jazz; Jan 21, 2021 at 19:26.
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    Jan 21, 2021 | 23:50 21 I suppose the pipe line could be completed then we could sell them water, that should be Green enough! Reply With Quote
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  • Jan 22, 2021 | 07:45 22 I wonder why the taps are not being closed on the existing pipeline until someone like Biden understands the value of a North American energy industry....

    One thing is for sure this will raise the price of fuel in canada even though there is an obvious oversupply domestically when you are talking about close to a million barrels a day that pipeline was to move...

    So where is that oil going? and why isn't Canadians getting a cut in fuel prices?

    What is the current discount of WCS and heavy oil now? Reply With Quote
    Jan 22, 2021 | 07:55 23
    Quote Originally Posted by bucket View Post
    I wonder why the taps are not being closed on the existing pipeline until someone like Biden understands the value of a North American energy industry....

    One thing is for sure this will raise the price of fuel in canada even though there is an obvious oversupply domestically when you are talking about close to a million barrels a day that pipeline was to move...

    So where is that oil going? and why isn't Canadians getting a cut in fuel prices?

    What is the current discount of WCS and heavy oil now?
    He going “green deal man “ , he is terrified to oppose the squads demands .
    He is forcefully invested in the green energy industry, so will be adventurous to watch this play out as he goes in complete opposite direction of Trump, good or bad .

    We will never get a cut in fuel prices again , it’s a new world .
    I am in , I bought an electric ice auger 👍
    Works good ...... as long as it’s charged and I don’t leave it out in the cold very long .............. like any battery 🔋 Reply With Quote
    Jan 22, 2021 | 08:01 24
    Quote Originally Posted by furrowtickler View Post
    He going “green deal man “ , he is terrified to oppose the squads demands .
    He is forcefully invested in the green energy industry, so will be adventurous to watch this play out as he goes in complete opposite direction of Trump, good or bad .

    We will never get a cut in fuel prices again , it’s a new world .
    I am in , I bought an electric ice auger 👍
    Works good ...... as long as it’s charged and I don’t leave it out in the cold very long .............. like any battery 🔋
    I too like my electric chainsaw for opening ice for the animals...much quieter ...and no issues with gas line deterioration .... Reply With Quote
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  • Jan 22, 2021 | 08:21 25
    Quote Originally Posted by jazz View Post
    Well Enbridge L5 could be the next target which supplies Sarnia feedstock and gasoline for Ontario and Quebec and jet fuel for Toronto. Michigan gets lots of supply from it as well.

    Eastern canada would have to bring products in from offshore in the maritimes which we could tanker there through transmountain via Panama. No wonder Alberta was adamant about getting at least that pipeline built. Opens up a lot of flexibility.

    No new pipelines will ever be built again but trying to shut down existing ones is a new game from the left.
    "President Biden issued a blizzard of executive orders on his first day in office, including a diktat to revoke the permit for the Keystone XL pipeline. This is a slap at Canada, and it sends a message to investors that playing by U.S. rules provides no immunity from arbitrary political whim.

    TC Energy (formerly TransCanada) has been stuck in the quicksand of American politics for more than a decade. A 2004 executive order requires the State Department to approve cross-border projects. In 2008 TC applied for a permit to transport up to 830,000 barrels of crude per day from the Alberta oil sands to U.S. refineries on the Gulf Coast.

    The Obama State Department found five separate times that the pipeline would have no material impact on greenhouse gas emissions since crude would still be extracted. Shipping bitumen by rail or tanker would result in 28% to 42% higher CO2 emissions and more leaks. No matter. President Obama in 2015 rejected the permit as an oblation to the Paris Climate accords.

    President Trump gave the right of way, but legal challenges by anti-fossil fuel groups marooned the pipeline and ran out the clock on the Trump years. Now Mr. Biden is yanking Keystone’s permit and rejoining the Paris agreement. Neither action will matter to the climate.

    Since 2000 the U.S. has led the world in energy-related emissions reductions as natural gas from shale hydraulic fracturing has replaced coal in power production. China’s Paris commitment doesn’t require it to cut emissions for another decade. Russia’s are set to rise for years. Last November Russian oil giant Rosneft launched a massive exploration project in the Arctic. “Mineral resources will remain a competitive advantage of Russia’s economy, and will determine the place and role of the country in the world,” Russia’s strategic mineral plan says...."

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/bidens-keystone-pipeline-kill-11611184519?mod=trending_now_pos4 Reply With Quote
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  • Jan 22, 2021 | 08:53 26
    Quote Originally Posted by furrowtickler View Post
    He going “green deal man “ , he is terrified to oppose the squads demands .
    He is forcefully invested in the green energy industry, so will be adventurous to watch this play out as he goes in complete opposite direction of Trump, good or bad .

    We will never get a cut in fuel prices again , it’s a new world .
    I am in , I bought an electric ice auger 👍
    Works good ...... as long as it’s charged and I don’t leave it out in the cold very long .............. like any battery 🔋
    After all, it's not like you would ever need to use an ice auger in cold weather, or outdoors... Reply With Quote
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  • Jan 22, 2021 | 09:00 27 With Enbridge line 3 and the TMX in the works it isn't clear whether the Keystone was going to be a good investment in the long run considering that demand for oil sands oil is likely to decline significantly during the lifetime of the pipeline.

    So why would Kenney invest 1.5 billion in Keystone during an election year when there was a good chance that Biden was going to get elected and kill the permit? What was the thinking behind this? That 1.5 billion could have been invested somewhere else to help create jobs instead of being wasted. Reply With Quote
    Jan 22, 2021 | 09:20 28
    Quote Originally Posted by GDR View Post
    I know Line 5 shutting down would be bad for the west also and for refinery workers out east but boy it might be the wakeup call that is needed for Ontario and Quebec. Did hear an expert say today that because it goes through a couple other states besides Michigan that its Governor wouldnt be able to stop it by herself, becomes a federal issue.
    Personally I think it would give Ontario a taste of what losing a pipeline feels like. There are 4 refineries in Ontario that depend on Line 5. They would probably have to close putting many out of work. The price of gasoline, diesel, aviation fuel and propane would all rise. It would be good for Ontario to see what it feels like in Alberta imo. Reply With Quote
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  • Jan 22, 2021 | 09:31 29
    Quote Originally Posted by chuckChuck View Post
    With Enbridge line 3 and the TMX in the works it isn't clear whether the Keystone was going to be a good investment in the long run considering that demand for oil sands oil is likely to decline significantly during the lifetime of the pipeline.
    Based on what? 2 different scenarios, The frac'ig revolution continues unabated in the US, in which case the glut of light sweet crude will require increasing amounts of heavy oil sands oil for blending to keep the refineries functioning, since they were all designed/retrofitted to much heavier grades.
    The other option, the looney left bans frac'ing, the US returns to being a significant importer and needs oil sands oil, since they are already set up to refine it. As you may have noticed, they have basically removed all troops from the middle east, importing oil from there is not currently part of the long term plan. Reply With Quote

  • Jan 22, 2021 | 09:57 30 Most oil companies are currently looking at the higher cost and higher carbon emissions of oil sand production and investing in lower cost production areas and diversifying into other energy sources all together.

    Most investors are asking, are the oil sands going to be competitive in a carbon constrained world? Reply With Quote