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Wheat what do you read into comments like this?

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Jan 13, 2021 | 19:53 1 In Egypt, the country’s minister of supply and internal trade said that its current state wheat reserves are sufficient for the next five months.

5 months time they are hoping prices will be lower?

5 months time prices might go higher as nations look for wheat and may be in short supply.

Its hard to join the dots when your a amateur like me.

Information overload at times.

Another from last night was something like “wheat mixed overnight as lots of fund technical manoeuvring took place”

Howvthe heck are farmers meant to know what technical manoeuvring is farming101+ macdon errol etc might be up to speed but im in the back corner of the class or out in the corridor doing time out.

Ps were done harvesting more pics in a few days Reply With Quote
  • 1 Like


  • Jan 13, 2021 | 20:00 2 curious mallee , how many hours do you put on your combine every year? Reply With Quote
    Jan 13, 2021 | 20:01 3 as to your question , i wonder how wheat can be at 1970 prices when everything else has gone up Reply With Quote
  • 2 Likes


  • Jan 13, 2021 | 20:07 4
    Quote Originally Posted by caseih View Post
    curious mallee , how many hours do you put on your combine every year?

    Will check. Our main issue this year was recieval standards, moisture.

    Our elevator system has 13.5% moisture wheat.

    End users and container market has 12.5% we had grief for almost two weeks, did stuff all.

    Cold harvesting weather to be honest most days between 24 and 32c not ideal for wheat.

    Re prices yeah dunno the solution old story you get paid less to produce more one of the few industries that has reverse economics Reply With Quote
  • 1 Like


  • Jan 13, 2021 | 20:26 5 mallee, the trade is trying ever trick in the book to get wheat out of the bin without paying up for it. They know whats coming.

    Egypt is a huge food importer. They are playing with fire here imho Reply With Quote
  • 1 Like


  • Jan 13, 2021 | 20:34 6
    Quote Originally Posted by caseih View Post
    as to your question , i wonder how wheat can be at 1970 prices when everything else has gone up
    Seeded wheat acres will be down in 2021 in North America with high corn, feed barley, oilseed prices. Reply With Quote
  • 2 Likes


  • Jan 13, 2021 | 21:52 7 Got I text from the guy at the local Richardsons’s asking if I had any unsold wheat left and how much? I told him I wasn’t interested in selling any right now. He texted back saying “ ok I wasn’t really looking to buy just wanted to know what you had left” Reply With Quote
    SASKFARMER's Avatar Jan 13, 2021 | 22:14 8 Yea they are snooping around. Reply With Quote
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  • Jan 13, 2021 | 22:28 9
    Quote Originally Posted by seldomseen View Post
    Got I text from the guy at the local Richardsons’s asking if I had any unsold wheat left and how much? I told him I wasn’t interested in selling any right now. He texted back saying “ ok I wasn’t really looking to buy just wanted to know what you had left”
    Planning a schedule to fill a train? Reply With Quote
    Jan 13, 2021 | 22:33 10
    Quote Originally Posted by seldomseen View Post
    Got I text from the guy at the local Richardsons’s asking if I had any unsold wheat left and how much? I told him I wasn’t interested in selling any right now. He texted back saying “ ok I wasn’t really looking to buy just wanted to know what you had left”
    I woulda text back their pricing its evident they aren’t looking to buy.... Reply With Quote

  • LEP
    Jan 13, 2021 | 22:42 11
    Quote Originally Posted by malleefarmer View Post
    In Egypt, the country’s minister of supply and internal trade said that its current state wheat reserves are sufficient for the next five months.

    5 months time they are hoping prices will be lower?

    5 months time prices might go higher as nations look for wheat and may be in short supply.

    Its hard to join the dots when your a amateur like me.

    Information overload at times.

    Another from last night was something like “wheat mixed overnight as lots of fund technical manoeuvring took place”

    Howvthe heck are farmers meant to know what technical manoeuvring is farming101+ macdon errol etc might be up to speed but im in the back corner of the class or out in the corridor doing time out.

    Ps were done harvesting more pics in a few days
    Not sure but Eqypt often makes a wrong move on the market.

    China is a much better at market reading or leading the market. Reply With Quote
  • 1 Like


  • Jan 13, 2021 | 22:58 12
    Quote Originally Posted by SASKFARMER View Post
    Yea they are snooping around.
    They always want the very important bushel number on the sample bag. Reply With Quote
  • 1 Like


  • Jan 14, 2021 | 01:44 13 Some of you guys really see the market as your enemy.

    Myself here sitting on 800 t of wheat.

    Sold out of barley did i get the top at harvest no, but within 10%.
    Foward sales of barley did i get the top no but close. Combine the two fair price.

    Wheat similar story.

    Last 800t have a target price 3 buyer's i deal with mostly know the target. Basically has to rise another $18 per tonne.

    If and when it gets there will be executed done and dusted. If prices keep rising i will swing to pricing new crop nov dec delivery no science here. Brokers saying i should sell wheat now and replace on paper if i want to capturevthe $18 rise. Each to there own.

    Im sure some of you no way would you let buyers know tonnes and price wanted. Just the way we do it here.

    I many many farmers tell buyer i want x dollars gets to 3 bucks near it they ring buyers say nope no deal i know want x plus 5 get close to target rinse repeat. Buyers just dont deal with dickheads here. If ya wanna play that game dont tell buyers your price wanted. Often those guys market collapses there left selling $40 below the best offer they had.

    Im fast learning we sure do things differently here. Dont mevyou guys are wrong at all just mindset different. Reply With Quote
    Jan 14, 2021 | 07:11 14
    Quote Originally Posted by rumrocks View Post
    They always want the very important bushel number on the sample bag.
    I aways give them the same answer when they ask ,you know ( a couple of loads ). I guess farmers get a little paranoid when everything they buy has gone up 3 or 4 times in cost but they still receive the same price from 20 or 30 years ago. Reply With Quote
    GDR
    Jan 14, 2021 | 08:56 15
    Quote Originally Posted by malleefarmer View Post
    Some of you guys really see the market as your enemy.

    Myself here sitting on 800 t of wheat.

    Sold out of barley did i get the top at harvest no, but within 10%.
    Foward sales of barley did i get the top no but close. Combine the two fair price.

    Wheat similar story.

    Last 800t have a target price 3 buyer's i deal with mostly know the target. Basically has to rise another $18 per tonne.

    If and when it gets there will be executed done and dusted. If prices keep rising i will swing to pricing new crop nov dec delivery no science here. Brokers saying i should sell wheat now and replace on paper if i want to capturevthe $18 rise. Each to there own.

    Im sure some of you no way would you let buyers know tonnes and price wanted. Just the way we do it here.

    I many many farmers tell buyer i want x dollars gets to 3 bucks near it they ring buyers say nope no deal i know want x plus 5 get close to target rinse repeat. Buyers just dont deal with dickheads here. If ya wanna play that game dont tell buyers your price wanted. Often those guys market collapses there left selling $40 below the best offer they had.

    Im fast learning we sure do things differently here. Dont mevyou guys are wrong at all just mindset different.
    I'm sure there are differences, but I think the sentiment towards buyers on agriville is exaggerated and doubt the individuals are as cranky with the buyers as they like to portray.

    I have good relationships with buyers I work with, honestly believe they try to help me out when I need it. If I don't like their price or terms I find an alternative, of which there seems to be more options every year. Reply With Quote

  • GDR
    Jan 14, 2021 | 09:05 16
    Quote Originally Posted by rumrocks View Post
    They always want the very important bushel number on the sample bag.
    I understand the resistance to volunteering info. However do think it helps them plan, which helps us. They are not gonna book a train and post a decent price for a specific spec if its not available locally. If they think they can match both a sale and purchase thats when basis narrows. Reply With Quote

  • Jan 15, 2021 | 19:02 17
    Quote Originally Posted by GDR View Post
    I'm sure there are differences, but I think the sentiment towards buyers on agriville is exaggerated and doubt the individuals are as cranky with the buyers as they like to portray.

    I have good relationships with buyers I work with, honestly believe they try to help me out when I need it. If I don't like their price or terms I find an alternative, of which there seems to be more options every year.

    No huff and puff and bravado here we all just do business.

    Sell when ya wanna sell hold when ya wanna hold.

    Read a report this morning attica grain brokers i think out of EU somewere there suggesting record world stocks when its finally collated. Not sure when that is end of jan feb?

    Errorl farming 101 when does wheat tonnes year start and end?

    Harvest still going on in HRZ areas of vicotoria and tasmania. Another 3 weeks and australia done. Reply With Quote
    blackpowder's Avatar Jan 15, 2021 | 19:32 18 Now I'm wondering if its just western Canada farmers.
    Complain and distrust. ?? Reply With Quote
  • 1 Like


  • Jan 15, 2021 | 19:56 19
    Quote Originally Posted by blackpowder View Post
    Now I'm wondering if its just western Canada farmers.
    Complain and distrust. ??
    Wasnt a shot at ya sorry.

    Just today saturday mid morning a lull in cash pricing , one a weekend two harvest 99% done in my state so quite market wise.

    So only 8 buyers operating today $12 spread between top and bottom. Reply With Quote
    Jan 15, 2021 | 19:59 20 Edit all it is a quick clik of computer screen and job done no need to ring company or broker. Enter your tonnes and grade hit accept pour your coffee come back to computer usually donevthat quick.

    Payment between 3 ans 19 days depends buyer.

    If ya dont like the price come backnext week or next month pick you buyer and quatity again rinse repeat.

    Next week might get a leg up here currency down futures up Reply With Quote
    blackpowder's Avatar Jan 15, 2021 | 20:07 21 Wasn't taken as such.
    An honest question albeit a little tongue in cheek.
    Not sure of percentage but I do feel it's part of the culture here.
    I've always said I'm a piss poor farmer cause i try not to bitch.
    I don't see the market as out to get me either.
    Your info always appreciated. Reply With Quote
  • 1 Like


  • Jan 15, 2021 | 20:13 22
    Quote Originally Posted by blackpowder View Post
    Wasn't taken as such.
    An honest question albeit a little tongue in cheek.
    Not sure of percentage but I do feel it's part of the culture here.
    I've always said I'm a piss poor farmer cause i try not to bitch.
    I don't see the market as out to get me either.
    Your info always appreciated.
    Wish i could get into trump cl8mate change debate more but at times as interesting as soiled underwear.

    I did dabble with covid this morning.

    Its almost 99% normal here except air travel in were most issues come from and out is my son ever gonna get to canada or usa..... Reply With Quote
  • 2 Likes


  • blackpowder's Avatar Jan 15, 2021 | 20:45 23 My feeling is plan for 2022 unless we get another one.
    2021 will be a right off. Reply With Quote
  • 1 Like

    LEP

  • Jan 15, 2021 | 20:59 24
    Quote Originally Posted by malleefarmer View Post
    No huff and puff and bravado here we all just do business.

    Sell when ya wanna sell hold when ya wanna hold.

    Read a report this morning attica grain brokers i think out of EU somewere there suggesting record world stocks when its finally collated. Not sure when that is end of jan feb?

    Errorl farming 101 when does wheat tonnes year start and end?

    Harvest still going on in HRZ areas of vicotoria and tasmania. Another 3 weeks and australia done.
    My understanding is the WASDE report takes into account the various marketing years of various nations.
    US wheat year is June - May
    EU, Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, China and NZ is July - June
    Canada is August - July
    Australia, Argentina is October - Sept Reply With Quote
    LEP
    Jan 15, 2021 | 23:32 25
    Quote Originally Posted by malleefarmer View Post
    Wasnt a shot at ya sorry.

    Just today saturday mid morning a lull in cash pricing , one a weekend two harvest 99% done in my state so quite market wise.

    So only 8 buyers operating today $12 spread between top and bottom.
    So do you sell most of your grain at harvest? Or are you only selling because of good prices? Reply With Quote
    Jan 16, 2021 | 00:15 26
    Quote Originally Posted by LEP View Post
    So do you sell most of your grain at harvest? Or are you only selling because of good prices?
    Both.

    Hypothetical plan 2021 harvest is nov dec, Usual plan is foward price up to 30% of wheat and barley if opportunities occur in feb march april may june when ever but have about 30% of expected production sold. Prior to harvest some have balls and do 50% plus.

    Then harvest maybe another 30/40% remainder in the jan feb march period.

    As i sent earlier in week our shipping window finishes as your harvest is cranking up.

    I try to sellmostly directly to feedlots mills get a premium often.

    But pre seeding sales are usually export sales.

    If pricing opportunities dont occur sit tight.

    Currently new seasons nov dec 21 is $285 per tonne on farm or $315 port roughly.

    My target there is $330 port or $300 on farm if it gets there incremental sales will occur in hopefully rising market until my 30% is hit. Might get 10% sold and market sentiment changes i might stand aside and do other 20% later.

    Seems you guys opposite getvthe grain first then do yourvtarget incremental selling kinda the same but you sell post harvest we do pre harvest harvest and post.

    Canola is nearly always done pre harvest or at harvest never held. Our canola shipping window is narrow and competes directly with you.

    Storage also different here we all have maybe half our production in store at elevators.

    No one way is right or wrong.

    Best prices here for 20 harvest occured in april may some guys foward sold at $330 on farm i was $12 under that so be it.

    Other guys sell swaps futures options rather than physical grain foward. Reply With Quote
  • 2 Likes


  • LEP
    Jan 16, 2021 | 13:54 27
    Quote Originally Posted by malleefarmer View Post
    Both.

    Hypothetical plan 2021 harvest is nov dec, Usual plan is foward price up to 30% of wheat and barley if opportunities occur in feb march april may june when ever but have about 30% of expected production sold. Prior to harvest some have balls and do 50% plus.

    Then harvest maybe another 30/40% remainder in the jan feb march period.

    As i sent earlier in week our shipping window finishes as your harvest is cranking up.

    I try to sellmostly directly to feedlots mills get a premium often.

    But pre seeding sales are usually export sales.

    If pricing opportunities dont occur sit tight.

    Currently new seasons nov dec 21 is $285 per tonne on farm or $315 port roughly.

    My target there is $330 port or $300 on farm if it gets there incremental sales will occur in hopefully rising market until my 30% is hit. Might get 10% sold and market sentiment changes i might stand aside and do other 20% later.

    Seems you guys opposite getvthe grain first then do yourvtarget incremental selling kinda the same but you sell post harvest we do pre harvest harvest and post.

    Canola is nearly always done pre harvest or at harvest never held. Our canola shipping window is narrow and competes directly with you.

    Storage also different here we all have maybe half our production in store at elevators.

    No one way is right or wrong.

    Best prices here for 20 harvest occured in april may some guys foward sold at $330 on farm i was $12 under that so be it.

    Other guys sell swaps futures options rather than physical grain foward.
    I may be the exception, but I am not opposed to selling some prior to harvest. My experience has been some good, some bad.

    Then the rest is marketed throughout the rest of the crop year. Anywhere from 3 to 5 increments. Depends on grades, moisture and prices

    Not the best marketer, but definitely not the worst. Reply With Quote