Harvest has now pretty well wrapped up across the majority of SA, with just a few growers in the South East still to finish off the last paddocks. Significant harvest pressure hit in all markets in mid-December when harvest reached its peak. As a result, we saw wheat pricing dip well below $300/MT in the Outer Harbour zone. We have since seen pricing find support from tightening global balance sheets and lack of significant rainfall in the NH. Now that crops in the Black Sea and US have entered dormancy the main focus of the market is South American weather. Russia has seen decent falls over the past 3 days, which has helped the alleviate some concerns over the crop. Whilst South America does have some rainfall forecast over the next 14 days, it isn’t expected to hit to key corn and soybean growing regions. We are very much in a weather driven market at the moment!
The other factor which has heavily been influencing pricing is the AUD. We have seen a game of Tug-O-War between futures pricing and the AUD. The Aussie has continued its march higher over the last month, and has now reached 77.7 cents. Since Dec 1 we have seen the AUD rise by 5.41%, and since the COVID lows of March 2020 the AUD has risen by a massive 41.02%. Many banks are forecasting the Aussie to reach 80 cents by the middle of the year. The recent rise can be attributed to a weakening USD, rising iron ore prices and also hopes of additional US stimulus packages this year.
Looking at the shipping stem we can now see what shipments are on the stem out until the end of Feb. All port zones remain extremely busy, with very little capacity available until June. This does mean there is very limited capacity for grain buyers to add to their shipping position. The diversity in the number of buyers with shipments on the stem has increased since our last report, Glencore do hold the majority of capacity (44%). There are still only two boats for canola on the stem for both Outer Harbour and Port Lincoln. We have started to see some competitive pricing return to the canola market as marketers look to fill these boats; currently decile 9.09 pricing. Interestingly, there is another 25,000 tonnes of lentils added to the stem to be shipped out of Port Giles in February. For those who have lentil tonnes warehoused in Port Giles it could potentially provide an opportunity to sell.
There are multiple grain buyers with wheat and barley boats on the stem over the next couple of months. We would expect that most shipments for Feb have already been covered, however providing buyers have not already purchased what they need to fill boats into March and beyond we can expect to see multiple buyers competing for tonnes. Australian FOB prices remain extremely competitive on the global stage. Margins being made by traders did increase significantly in mid-December as pricing tumbled due to harvest pressure. We did advise clients to ride out the period of harvest pressure because of this reason. As a result of lack of grower liquidity, we have seen pricing rebound and the margin traders are making has come back into a normal range. The main drivers of price moving forward will be weather driven along with the AUD.
The other factor which has heavily been influencing pricing is the AUD. We have seen a game of Tug-O-War between futures pricing and the AUD. The Aussie has continued its march higher over the last month, and has now reached 77.7 cents. Since Dec 1 we have seen the AUD rise by 5.41%, and since the COVID lows of March 2020 the AUD has risen by a massive 41.02%. Many banks are forecasting the Aussie to reach 80 cents by the middle of the year. The recent rise can be attributed to a weakening USD, rising iron ore prices and also hopes of additional US stimulus packages this year.
Looking at the shipping stem we can now see what shipments are on the stem out until the end of Feb. All port zones remain extremely busy, with very little capacity available until June. This does mean there is very limited capacity for grain buyers to add to their shipping position. The diversity in the number of buyers with shipments on the stem has increased since our last report, Glencore do hold the majority of capacity (44%). There are still only two boats for canola on the stem for both Outer Harbour and Port Lincoln. We have started to see some competitive pricing return to the canola market as marketers look to fill these boats; currently decile 9.09 pricing. Interestingly, there is another 25,000 tonnes of lentils added to the stem to be shipped out of Port Giles in February. For those who have lentil tonnes warehoused in Port Giles it could potentially provide an opportunity to sell.
There are multiple grain buyers with wheat and barley boats on the stem over the next couple of months. We would expect that most shipments for Feb have already been covered, however providing buyers have not already purchased what they need to fill boats into March and beyond we can expect to see multiple buyers competing for tonnes. Australian FOB prices remain extremely competitive on the global stage. Margins being made by traders did increase significantly in mid-December as pricing tumbled due to harvest pressure. We did advise clients to ride out the period of harvest pressure because of this reason. As a result of lack of grower liquidity, we have seen pricing rebound and the margin traders are making has come back into a normal range. The main drivers of price moving forward will be weather driven along with the AUD.
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