Test $ 8.00 wheat Test

Commodity Marketing

Tools

$ 8.00 wheat

Test
Jan 12, 2021 | 15:30 61 Rough calculation wheat here in aussie dollar terms rose about $11.60 with futures move.

My guess prices here today up $2 to 3 Reply With Quote
Jan 12, 2021 | 15:33 62
Quote Originally Posted by farmboy44 View Post
Great. You understand what coverage and position is for your needs, so you should see why a grain company uses the same mentality with their needs.
Just funny how they all seem to do it. Coverage of all the graincos happens at the same time/day..... Reply With Quote
Jan 12, 2021 | 16:35 63
Quote Originally Posted by Bowerpower View Post
Just funny how they all seem to do it. Coverage of all the graincos happens at the same time/day.....
Yes, like on days the futures contract that they ALL use goes up 20 cents per bushel.

Are you even aware that today the most important usda report of the year was released? It’s historically one of the most volatile days of the year. Yet you have the audacity to claim collusion because they all bought a lot of grain today as anyone would’ve expected them to given how friendly the report was forecasted to be. Did you sell any today?

And we wonder why we are labeled as a bunch of complainers.. Reply With Quote
  • 1 Like

    GDR

  • Jan 12, 2021 | 16:51 64
    Quote Originally Posted by Bowerpower View Post
    Always happens. Graincos never give the full futures rise on wheat bids. Wheat is a one f’d market. Collusion.....
    Hey bower what’s your analysis on the collision these same companies are partaking in as they all improve their basis on canola as futures continue to rise? Reply With Quote
    Jan 12, 2021 | 17:11 65
    Quote Originally Posted by farmboy44 View Post
    Hey bower what’s your analysis on the collision these same companies are partaking in as they all improve their basis on canola as futures continue to rise?
    First off I’m not complaining. It’s just the way it is. Very rarely do local cash bids get the full benefit of a futures rally in wheat. Canola basis improving. Well a lot more domestic use. Way more crush plants help basis. Far less processing in wheat. Yes I am foolish not to think grain co have my best interest in mind. By the way I have five terminals within 100 km. And unless some special pops up they are usually within 10 cents of each other... Reply With Quote
    Jan 12, 2021 | 17:25 66 Collusion......Delusion........

    Farmers and grain marketers have similar trade patterns just always on opposite side of the ledger in rising markets and falling markets.

    Cant have a market without buyers sellers marketers and volatilty and basis.

    Amazing over years read all the USDA haters they know jack shitz etc etc not a peep from them this morn8ng even praise.

    Ps not referring to this forum.

    End of rant. Reply With Quote
  • 2 Likes


  • Jan 12, 2021 | 17:34 67
    Quote Originally Posted by Bowerpower View Post
    First off I’m not complaining. It’s just the way it is. Very rarely do local cash bids get the full benefit of a futures rally in wheat. Canola basis improving. Well a lot more domestic use. Way more crush plants help basis. Far less processing in wheat. Yes I am foolish not to think grain co have my best interest in mind. By the way I have five terminals within 100 km. And unless some special pops up they are usually within 10 cents of each other...
    Your surprised that a handful of different entities marketing the same product in the same area with basically the same fixed and variable costs to the same buyers have similar prices? Please tell me why they should be more than 10 cents apart? Reply With Quote
    Jan 12, 2021 | 18:18 68
    Quote Originally Posted by farmboy44 View Post
    Your surprised that a handful of different entities marketing the same product in the same area with basically the same fixed and variable costs to the same buyers have similar prices? Please tell me why they should be more than 10 cents apart?
    Silly me. They all must make the same sales to the same buyers for the same amount and need to fill the boats at the same time. Reply With Quote
  • 1 Like


  • Jan 12, 2021 | 21:59 69
    Quote Originally Posted by Bowerpower View Post
    Silly me. They all must make the same sales to the same buyers for the same amount and need to fill the boats at the same time.
    Are you suggesting their buyers, timelines, and prices aren’t similar on the other end of the transaction? I can’t tell if your even serious right now Reply With Quote
    Jan 12, 2021 | 22:18 70
    Quote Originally Posted by farmboy44 View Post
    Your surprised that a handful of different entities marketing the same product in the same area with basically the same fixed and variable costs to the same buyers have similar prices? Please tell me why they should be more than 10 cents apart?
    Same Grainco at different points within 70 miles of farm is 29 cents difference for #1 13.5 wheat. It pays to follow local bids. You don't know what you don't know.... Reply With Quote
  • 1 Like


  • Jan 13, 2021 | 04:49 71
    Quote Originally Posted by farming101 View Post
    Same Grainco at different points within 70 miles of farm is 29 cents difference for #1 13.5 wheat. It pays to follow local bids. You don't know what you don't know....
    Not sure but 70 miles probably equates to 15-20c in rail freight alone. If they are on different rail lines difference could be 29 but that seems like a lot. I’d hope most understand why their wheat is worth more in lethbridge in January than Moose Jaw

    Agree with you though Reply With Quote
    SASKFARMER's Avatar Jan 13, 2021 | 06:23 72 Wheat up .24 cents yesterday in Min.

    Grain companies in Canada did zero increase.

    Why because we have zero info from them on what they sell our product at the coast and to who. Reply With Quote
    Jan 13, 2021 | 06:56 73 Hmmm won't have many snowbirds to give reports on North Americas winter wheat conditions this year. Our local guys seem concerned, no snowcover ,no moisture,cold weather coming. Reply With Quote
    Jan 13, 2021 | 07:01 74
    Quote Originally Posted by SASKFARMER View Post
    Wheat up .24 cents yesterday in Min.

    Grain companies in Canada did zero increase.

    Why because we have zero info from them on what they sell our product at the coast and to who.

    Being almost all privately held means we won’t see much into their financials

    Ceres is one that is public. Their fins not pretty lol Reply With Quote
    Jan 13, 2021 | 07:02 75 2009 was a dry year....2010 only seeded a 25% of the farm because it was so wet ...and glad i didn't seed more...

    It took 10 years to get a 4 quarter block back into full production..I am not complaining about dry ...nervous ..absolutely ...but have lived through it before....being dry just seems that a guy can accomplish more at a relaxed pace... Reply With Quote
    Jan 13, 2021 | 09:23 76 Everyone take those stupid $7 wheat targets out and ask yourself how in **** wheat can be $6.50 when feed wheat is $7 and barley is near $6 and oats are $4-$4.50 and canola is $16 and flax is $19 and canary is $15 ........ ? Need I go on
    Like I said last spring there would be lots of speculators with their pants around ankles and sore red arses ?
    Well $15 canola is hurting their arses
    We all knew it wasn’t there the surplus ?
    Like someone else said on here there is probably a 1-2 month supply of anything in the world
    They’re playing us on wheat still cause it’s the easy one Reply With Quote
    Jan 13, 2021 | 09:34 77 Wheat is one of the few crops that is harvested in every month of the year somewhere around the globe. Reply With Quote
  • 1 Like


  • Jan 14, 2021 | 09:27 78 Wheat $8.03 this morning, think we still have a bit more upside left. Reply With Quote
    Jan 14, 2021 | 11:17 79 Spring wheat leading today, up12 cents U.S.D. Reply With Quote
    fjlip's Avatar Jan 14, 2021 | 11:21 80
    Quote Originally Posted by Sodbuster View Post
    Wheat is one of the few crops that is harvested in every month of the year somewhere around the globe.
    I've heard EVERYDAY somewhere wheat is being harvested... Reply With Quote
  • 1 Like


  • Jan 14, 2021 | 14:34 81 Feed wheat above $7 tells me there is a shortage of feed?

    What are the Alberta feedlots using barley, wheat or corn? Reply With Quote
  • 1 Like


  • Jan 14, 2021 | 20:49 82 Far out, you guys exporting wheat at a frantic pace i seethis morning.

    Maybe your supplies will be exhausted come july august just in time for harvest.

    Bodes well.

    Other interesting thing china india hold 61% of reserves of wheat.

    India also has shitloads ofvthere own wheat cant follow things at times Reply With Quote
    Jan 15, 2021 | 04:01 83
    Quote Originally Posted by Oliver88 View Post
    Feed wheat above $7 tells me there is a shortage of feed?

    What are the Alberta feedlots using barley, wheat or corn?
    $5+US/bus corn, $6.50 feed barley or $7.50/bus feed wheat delivered to Lethbridge. All expensive. Don't know how they're staying in the black. Local rancher nearly fell over when I told him what feed barley was. He was looking for more to get through winter, but was going to weigh his options. Reply With Quote
    Jan 15, 2021 | 08:08 84 Been hearing feed barley as high as $318 / tonne for July delivery to Lethbridge now. Reply With Quote
    GDR
    Jan 15, 2021 | 08:26 85
    Quote Originally Posted by zeefarmer View Post
    $5+US/bus corn, $6.50 feed barley or $7.50/bus feed wheat delivered to Lethbridge. All expensive. Don't know how they're staying in the black. Local rancher nearly fell over when I told him what feed barley was. He was looking for more to get through winter, but was going to weigh his options.
    Who says they are in the black. You can't stop feeding just because of negative margins. As much as I like these prices if we lose feeding capacity it is not coming back and is detrimental to long term grain prices. We all need to be successful because we are integrated. Reply With Quote
  • 2 Likes


  • Jan 15, 2021 | 09:27 86 8.30 1 cwrs 13.5 contract picked up overnight. Reply With Quote
  • 1 Like


  • Jan 15, 2021 | 09:31 87
    Quote Originally Posted by GDR View Post
    Who says they are in the black. You can't stop feeding just because of negative margins. As much as I like these prices if we lose feeding capacity it is not coming back and is detrimental to long term grain prices. We all need to be successful because we are integrated.
    Serfas feedlot has to be a moneymaker....they grew their own feed on the 50000 acres...and will be buying calves at a reasonable price....past the winter weather....they should have a good start... Reply With Quote
    Jan 15, 2021 | 09:41 88
    Quote Originally Posted by mcfarms View Post
    8.30 1 cwrs 13.5 contract picked up overnight.

    Alberta price? Reply With Quote
    Jan 15, 2021 | 10:04 89
    Quote Originally Posted by GDR View Post
    Who says they are in the black. You can't stop feeding just because of negative margins. As much as I like these prices if we lose feeding capacity it is not coming back and is detrimental to long term grain prices. We all need to be successful because we are integrated.
    I've been told that feedlots lose money almost as often as they make money. As long as it averages out to profit in the long run it all works out. With the tax bill, staff that need to be kept busy, fixed overhead, home grown silage/feed that needs to be used, apparently better off keeping the pens full regardless of cost or loss. Reply With Quote
    Jan 15, 2021 | 10:55 90 Used to be lots of deferred income tax money trapped going around and around in the feedlots.
    Is that still happening? Reply With Quote