Test The trouble with statistics..... Test

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The trouble with statistics.....

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Dec 5, 2020 | 08:21 1 ......is that you need to understand a lot more than how to add.

I am always surprised by the jolt it gives you when you look at the numbers and realize, "I missed something here. This is wrong. Or, I am using this to prove something that was not the focus of the original statistic.

Take for example COVID-19 stats that are being published in reams every day. Where do you start? What do they mean? Does it tell us where we are headed? How bad is it?

A lot of "excess death" statistics are being published now. CDC data.....

The stats are provisional. check the footnotes
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*Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction and cause of death.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Neglecting to drill down gives you things like this:
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Other examples are crop reports, harvest yield reports etc. Statistics are open to revision and even interpretation. Garbage in - Garbage out, Take it with a grain of salt and of course Lies, damn lies and statistics come to mind....
More and more it seems we are making decisions based on news and reports with statistics attached. Which new variety to try, which bull to buy, how much canola to sell, where should I invest. Due diligence has never been more important.... Reply With Quote
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  • helmsdale's Avatar Dec 5, 2020 | 21:38 2 My biggest issue is time... when I pour into something I want to truly understand the root of it. And that takes time that 3 young kids, a bunch of antique farm equipment, and a feather light bank account doesnt afford.

    I find myself, more now than ever, *feeling* manipulated on all sides with partial realities, inaccurate representations of incomplete data, and foaming at the mouth partisans with agendas.

    When time was more plentiful I could wade through the shit, but now I find myself simply pushing away from the table and focusing on that which I can immediately understand, or which i must understand. Reply With Quote
    Dec 11, 2020 | 09:37 3
    Quote Originally Posted by helmsdale View Post
    My biggest issue is time... when I pour into something I want to truly understand the root of it. And that takes time that 3 young kids, a bunch of antique farm equipment, and a feather light bank account doesnt afford.

    I find myself, more now than ever, *feeling* manipulated on all sides with partial realities, inaccurate representations of incomplete data, and foaming at the mouth partisans with agendas.

    When time was more plentiful I could wade through the shit, but now I find myself simply pushing away from the table and focusing on that which I can immediately understand, or which i must understand.
    I am certainly not a psychotherapist, but I would advise you to just stop, exhale and think about what you have. After all, you have much more than many. Your children are your main treasure, they are your inspiration and your goal in life. After all, in the end, you do everything for the good of your family. I understand that you would like more, but almost everyone wants it. Those people who do not want to achieve more - something is wrong with them. So, stop and do not perceive everything that surrounds you as a growing problem. Think of it as a problem that you need to solve. Think about what you would need to invest money in, consult with your wife. You can find a way out. I say this from my own experience. When I changed my attitude to what I have, it became more clear to me where to move on. And for 2 years there have been significant changes for the better. Believe in yourself. Reply With Quote
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