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Stats Canada Canola

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Dec 3, 2020 | 08:23 1 Canola Production at 18.7 mmt. At low end of traders estimates. Average yield 40 bu/ac. Market is strong again this morning. Reply With Quote
SASKFARMER's Avatar Dec 3, 2020 | 08:28 2 Yep and all along after my crop tour, I said it was an average over Saskatchewan with some less and some just a bit more. No bumper just a nice low-end crop for 2020.

Maybe trust a farmer instead of experts that know jack shit. Reply With Quote
Dec 3, 2020 | 08:29 3
Quote Originally Posted by crusher View Post
Canola Production at 18.7 mmt. At low end of traders estimates. Average yield 40 bu/ac. Market is strong again this morning.
My guess a while back was 18-18.5mmt Reply With Quote
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  • Dec 3, 2020 | 08:58 4 Saying in the states goes....small crops get smaller....big crops get bigger.....In 2 years the 2020 crop will be closer to my prediction ....statscan has some time to adjust it...maybe with a better 2021 crop they can keep their numbers....


    But eventually they have to start reporting accurately and more timely...

    Farmers are told to report every aspect of their operation in a timely and accurate fashion through free data...yet statscan has 2 years to adjust....
    Last edited by bucket; Dec 3, 2020 at 09:01.
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  • Dec 3, 2020 | 09:09 5
    Quote Originally Posted by bucket View Post
    My guess a while back was 18-18.5mmt
    Interesting to note that Neil Townsend’s prediction was for 20.2 million tonnes, turns out he was a bit optimistic! Reply With Quote
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  • Dec 3, 2020 | 09:13 6
    Quote Originally Posted by Hamloc View Post
    Interesting to note that Neil Townsend’s prediction was for 20.2 million tonnes, turns out he was a bit optimistic!
    The only problem with Townsend's prediction was he was too stupid to revise it....

    My guess came from talking to neighbours and working the math from averages....it isn't rocket science... Reply With Quote
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  • Dec 3, 2020 | 09:23 7 Statscan future stats or adjustments would be based on real data, the way it should be vs best guess.

    Every one has data from the big exporters, crop insurance, private insurers, John deer, etc data that is traded on to make there businesses function better and or for more profitability.

    Farmers don’t have that opportunity, they are always leveraged by businesses. Can farmers hedge and make informed, risk management decisions. Not really. Winnipeg commodity exchange , remember when the big company squeezed the other big company because they were short, and canola prices exploded higher. Canola futures are risky and don’t always reflect the market, the same for usa wheat futures.

    Again important reason for farmers to have sales data to make important farm management decisions. Maybe don’t need agri stability, or ... Reply With Quote
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  • Dec 3, 2020 | 09:28 8
    Quote Originally Posted by Rareearth View Post
    Statscan future stats or adjustments would be based on real data, the way it should be vs best guess.

    Every one has data from the big exporters, crop insurance, private insurers, John deer, etc data that is traded on to make there businesses function better and or for more profitability.

    Farmers don’t have that opportunity, they are always leveraged by businesses. Can farmers hedge and make informed, risk management decisions. Not really. Winnipeg commodity exchange , remember when the big company squeezed the other big company because they were short, and canola prices exploded higher. Canola futures are risky and don’t always reflect the market, the same for usa wheat futures.

    Again important reason for farmers to have sales data to make important farm management decisions. Maybe don’t need agri stability, or ...

    Good points ...sales data would help the entire system ....that and the ability for graincos to order the cars they need when contracts are signed....

    As an example if a grainco signs up a 100 cars worth of canola on a september 2021 delivery and do those in February 2021....they can not order the train to ensure movement...archaic backwards system...
    Last edited by bucket; Dec 3, 2020 at 09:32.
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  • Dec 3, 2020 | 09:35 9
    Quote Originally Posted by Rareearth View Post
    Farmers don’t have that opportunity,
    Honestly rare, if the commodity traders can make bank holding paper, then the guys holding the actual commodity should be able to make out like bandits merging the two holdings.

    Not to get into a discussion about the CWB, but it should have morphed into a true trading and marketing arm for canadian ag. One part trade missions and finding new markets and price discovery, second part helping farmers leverage their positions on paper.

    We are cut off from the second part of the equation. We dont even know what these ships in the bay in vancouver are waiting for. We are storing on our own dime trying to out wait an empty ship sitting in the harbour.

    Very little transparency. Reply With Quote

  • Dec 3, 2020 | 09:38 10
    Quote Originally Posted by jazz View Post
    Honestly rare, if the commodity traders can make bank holding paper, then the guys holding the actual commodity should be able to make out like bandits merging the two holdings.

    Not to get into a discussion about the CWB, but it should have morphed into a true trading and marketing arm for canadian ag. One part trade missions and finding new markets and price discovery, second part helping farmers leverage their positions on paper.

    We are cut off from the second part of the equation. We dont even know what these ships in the bay in vancouver are waiting for. We are storing on our own dime trying to out wait an empty ship sitting in the harbour.

    Very little transparency.
    Good comments but the people in charge a few years back had zero vision for agriculture relating to farmers and implementing transparency which is the foundation of an open market... Reply With Quote
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  • Dec 3, 2020 | 09:45 11
    Quote Originally Posted by crusher View Post
    Canola Production at 18.7 mmt. At low end of traders estimates. Average yield 40 bu/ac. Market is strong again this morning.
    It’s still to high Reply With Quote
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  • Dec 3, 2020 | 09:47 12
    Quote Originally Posted by Hamloc View Post
    Interesting to note that Neil Townsend’s prediction was for 20.2 million tonnes, turns out he was a bit optimistic!
    Why isn’t he brought to the fire and made to stick his feet in
    Look at the the free airtime that he got and didn’t have a clue
    Who in **** would hire that outfit Reply With Quote
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  • Dec 3, 2020 | 09:49 13 Anyone have a link? Only thing I can find requires a subscription. Reply With Quote
    Dec 3, 2020 | 12:24 14
    Quote Originally Posted by caseih View Post
    Why isn’t he brought to the fire and made to stick his feet in
    Look at the the free airtime that he got and didn’t have a clue
    Who in **** would hire that outfit
    BE NICE! Treat everyone like you would want to be treated . . . who says Stats Can is right anyway? Reply With Quote
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  • Dec 3, 2020 | 12:54 15 Farmers are mushrooms with the appropriate comments that are tagged with them

    Errol, you are the humus that bind us. Reply With Quote
    Dec 3, 2020 | 13:09 16
    Quote Originally Posted by errolanderson View Post
    BE NICE! Treat everyone like you would want to be treated . . . who says Stats Can is right anyway?
    Bullshit
    You have to ask him why he didn’t go for a drive or know that you can’t grow bumper canola with a hot dry spell like that
    Or maybe listen to a farmer
    You have to ask yourself why all these “experts” pushed this horseshit long after even the most out of touch people knew
    I’m sick and tired of these games they are playing with our livelihoods just so some leach can bleed us a little more
    Anyone that thought there was a bumper canola crop by the second week of august is sadly out of touch or has his own agenda
    And no this stats can report is definitely not right as is obvious by the price being offered
    You see the people that need to know , know exactly what there is , just us mushrooms are kept out of the loop
    And stats can has a real problem with the bullshit report from last year , now they can’t use this “bumper” crop to make it work on paper two years down the road
    And by the way , what’s wrong with asking a “self described expert” where he was coming from , him and a whole bunch more ????
    Last edited by caseih; Dec 3, 2020 at 13:20.
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  • Dec 3, 2020 | 17:24 17 And to be fair I’m a farmer, I had no idea ( greed - hope - fear - panic) what our yield was going to be.

    When early yield reports (gossip, rumours) of the early seeded, outstanding germination, early crop development, that some what beat the heat/dryness I knew it wouldn’t be big. I considered our crops and area average this year. That’s 75 mph scouting, I recognize heat blast pale yellow, blank tops, etc plus no moisture to fill.

    I think the big story could be the dryness going into the fields in late April, and there will be no carry over stocks, terminals will be shut down for maintenance July 1

    I’m not a pessimist, try to focus on opportunities with realistic assessments. Reply With Quote

  • Dec 5, 2020 | 04:56 18 I sometimes wonder if terminals know any more than farmers, and all they really know is that they accept the lowest farmer targets that get their next train filled. I only say this because I would rather deal in cash prices, but that is always limited tonnes, at limited times.

    I had a harvest B of canola with a disabled tractor. It wasn't important to get it going until after harvest conclusion. Fixed the problem in later September, and decided rather than find a bin for the load I'd try a terminal which was at around $11, and save the hassle. The response was, "oh no, we can't take it. We have lots of undelivered client contracts coming in this week to fill our next train".

    Now its, thanks for the extra $4,000.00. I'll bin bin loads all day for that.

    Again, do they know any more than us mushrooms that are all in the humus bed, other than the five second advantage the humus might have in getting the nutrients to the mushrooms. Reply With Quote
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  • Dec 5, 2020 | 05:31 19 People who profess to be experts offer themselves up to be targets. They should get in the game, do the research, walk the walk or face the music. Farmers’ returns are damaged by these self-proclaimed prophets. I remember full well how we struggled and squirmed like wet mice to try to get the special crops industry going. Trouble is there are vested interests who control and we allow it, even pay them.
    Last edited by sumdumguy; Dec 5, 2020 at 06:00.
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  • Dec 5, 2020 | 06:43 20
    Quote Originally Posted by checking View Post
    I sometimes wonder if terminals know any more than farmers, and all they really know is that they accept the lowest farmer targets that get their next train filled. I only say this because I would rather deal in cash prices, but that is always limited tonnes, at limited times.

    I had a harvest B of canola with a disabled tractor. It wasn't important to get it going until after harvest conclusion. Fixed the problem in later September, and decided rather than find a bin for the load I'd try a terminal which was at around $11, and save the hassle. The response was, "oh no, we can't take it. We have lots of undelivered client contracts coming in this week to fill our next train".

    Now its, thanks for the extra $4,000.00. I'll bin bin loads all day for that.

    Again, do they know any more than us mushrooms that are all in the humus bed, other than the five second advantage the humus might have in getting the nutrients to the mushrooms.

    IMHO ...if you cant deliver spot....the system isn't working to find price discovery...if they are a month behind in contracts then the system is backlogged and thats how they are controlling the price for their benefit... Reply With Quote

  • SASKFARMER's Avatar Dec 5, 2020 | 06:55 21 Again I did a provincial tour and knew the crop wasn’t what they were saying.

    Just one stupid farmer who knows crops that likes to see Saskatchewan. If you grow crops you can easily know the difference from a 60 plus to a 25. It’s not rocket science stop take a piss and look.

    It wasn’t a bumper it was a 18.2 all along.

    But the guy who guessed way wrong should of admitted he was a fool and maybe he would of got some credibility back. Sticking to his big crop was a crock of shit. Reply With Quote
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  • Dec 5, 2020 | 07:38 22 Some experts are just weatherman....pats on the back for the right call and excuses for the wrong one....


    There will be BUT BUT BUT ...coming from Neil Townsend if media ever asks him why the shit call on production considering he toured the crops and had weather services to help as well... Reply With Quote
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  • Dec 5, 2020 | 08:26 23 Checking,
    The process the terminals favor is :
    - no unscheduled deliveries ( they assume every farmer has bin storage) at harvest if you have a larger than expected crop, put a target in at a big discount under the market for delivery in the monthly system. That’s the gravy the terminals usually get ( not you)
    - basis is determined some what the the mix of supply and demand ( plus other factors) if the terminal has extra capacity(or the exporter) they will lower the basis and increase the net price to the farmer, and vice versa. BUT they strive to maintain a full delivery schedule or bookings and this tends to lower or stabilize price offerings from the exports if its a rising market ( if the market buyers aren’t buying then exporters lower the price offering to slow farmer selling down, lowballing for several month out deliveries (allows exporters to buy under the market and make sales) it’s easy to make sales when you have something to sell below market prices, try and sell at a premium you better have premium or expect big problems.

    That is way shorter explanation than it should have been.

    Basically target pricing favours exports and lowers grower returns. Reply With Quote
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  • Dec 5, 2020 | 08:38 24
    Quote Originally Posted by errolanderson View Post
    BE NICE! Treat everyone like you would want to be treated . . . who says Stats Can is right anyway?
    Here are two articles, both quoting Neil Townsend: producer.com/news/farmers-prepare-for-bumper-crop.
    producer.com/news/canola-estimate-feels-the-heat.

    In the first article he predicts bumper crops, in the second after it has become obvious canola yields are lower than expected he doubles down on his opinion of good yields. Read both and form your own opinion. Reply With Quote
    Dec 5, 2020 | 08:41 25
    Quote Originally Posted by Rareearth View Post
    Checking,
    The process the terminals favor is :
    Basically target pricing favours exports and lowers grower returns.
    Name:  0.png
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    Blackpowder told Mallee that he shouldn't read Agriville for how the Canadian grain market works.

    There is no way to cap wheat prices! No ceilings. No grain pre-sold by GrainCos that might need to be filled under market prices..... can't-won't-hasn't ever happen.....impossible. Reply With Quote
    Dec 5, 2020 | 08:58 26 It’s just another example of how captive farmers are in the “new open market system” .

    Price targets, are a type of market price fixing, collusion, etc no one would ever accept that terminology or methodology - explanation. Take it for what it really is. Interesting how specials show up when grain isn’t available to fill cars.

    The system needs more price discovery and delivery alternatives, (infrastructure for processing of food, feed, fuel - smaller independent exporters etc) this would creat a competitive environment to benefit all tax payers and citizens. Reply With Quote
    Dec 5, 2020 | 09:10 27 Do you think if you are not in a claim position with crop insurance ...farmers report actual yields or do they increase them to help their individual farm yields...


    What does it matter if your guarantee is 25bpa and you grow 35 but report 40?

    The closer your boots are to the ground the better the knowledge....I have no understanding why farmers trust a guy like Townsend when farmers are in their fields to know better...

    Why do farmers sell themselves short on the knowledge they have....and then give it away for free....


    If Townsend showed up at the side of the road near any of my fields and wanted to walk them ...he would be told to phuck off quickly and buy his own farm for information....
    Last edited by bucket; Dec 5, 2020 at 09:14.
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  • Dec 5, 2020 | 09:14 28
    Quote Originally Posted by bucket View Post
    Do you think if you are not in a claim position with crop insurance ...farmers report actual yields or do they increase them to help their individual farm yields...


    What does it matter if your guarantee is 25bpa and you grow 35 but report 40?
    Time for an Agristability forensic audit! Reply With Quote
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  • Dec 5, 2020 | 09:16 29
    Quote Originally Posted by farmaholic View Post
    Time for an Agristability forensic audit!

    Why???? You ever see a physical audit from agristabilty...most large farms that are extracting money from the program...have bin yards in different areas and so many companies the dummies at agristability just rely on the MNP masters for info anyway. Reply With Quote
    Dec 5, 2020 | 09:16 30 Wise guy that is true.

    For effective markets, price increases or decreases should be steady upward or downward slopes (vs knee jerk limit up for a week or down).

    - What were the foreword sales again, to where ? We don’t have to name the exporters, the information will be aggregated to protect their business interests. Wish we could protect ours. Under a sales reporting system total revenues might actually be higher for taxation needs of government.

    - what % of the current crop for all grains has been sold?

    - farmers really don’t have the full picture of “supply and demand”

    Our farm is at significant risk, for price collapse ( is skippy doesn’t shut up with India politics, or now again Chinese wawae and the two Dave’s), or inability to participate in capture strong market pricing opportunities- using supply and demand analysis with fundamentals.

    How many tons have been committed for sale ( export and domestic) ? Reply With Quote