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Warm December for PNW, northern plains and rockies

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Nov 28, 2020 | 23:09 1 https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/2020-11-24-december-2020-temperature-outlook-forecast-the-weather-company?cm_ven=hp-slot-1

What Changed This Forecast? It's Not La Niña.

Heading into winter, a strengthening La Niña is expected to last through spring and could become strong, according to the latest outlook from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

This periodic cooling of sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean can influence weather conditions across the globe.

La Niña winters are typically chilly and wet in the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies and chilly in the northern Plains. Conversely, in the South and parts of the East, La Niña most often delivers warm and dry conditions.But La Niña isn't the only factor that can shape the atmospheric pattern.

The forecast for early December indicates a large northward bulge of the jet stream over the western U.S. and western Canada, rather than over the north Pacific Ocean, and a pronounced southward plunge over the southern and eastern U.S.

This pattern, known to meteorologists as the positive phase of the Pacific-North American (PNA) oscillation, would bring cooler, wetter weather to the South and East and warmer, drier weather to the Northwest and northern Rockies.

This type of pattern could also bring the possibility of wintry precipitation in parts of the South and storms to the East Coast.
"It's a pattern that more closely resembles something you might see during mid-winter in a strong El Niño," said Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist at The Weather Company.

Crawford said this strong positive PNA pattern is being triggered by warmer than average Indian Ocean water producing more tropical thunderstorms farther west than is typical in a La Niña.

Where these thunderstorms are more numerous and persistent – and where they're more absent – can impact the weather pattern over the Pacific Ocean and over the United States.

As to how long this non-La Niña pattern may hold into December, it's a tricky call.

"We do expect the early month pattern to flip to a more typical La Niña pattern by the latter half of the month," Crawford said.

Average December Temperatures

Highs in December are typically in the 30s or colder along most of the northern third of the U.S. from the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies to the northern Plains, upper Midwest, Great Lakes and interior Northeast.
Last edited by TOM4CWB; Nov 28, 2020 at 23:13.
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  • Nov 28, 2020 | 23:15 2 This past week or so has been warmer than much of October, and forecast is for even warmer yet. Not even freezing some nights. Highs in the high single digits supposedly coming. Might yet finish the last dribble of harvest.
    I'd rate the snowmobiling as poor right now though. Reply With Quote

  • Nov 29, 2020 | 07:57 3 A few inches/feet of fresh snow would be sweet for ski-dooing 👍 Reply With Quote
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  • Nov 29, 2020 | 13:19 4
    Quote Originally Posted by AlbertaFarmer5 View Post
    This past week or so has been warmer than much of October, and forecast is for even warmer yet. Not even freezing some nights. Highs in the high single digits supposedly coming. Might yet finish the last dribble of harvest.
    I'd rate the snowmobiling as poor right now though.
    A few sleds are going here but when the quad gets around anywhere yet I don’t think it’s a very smooth ride. Cows and I are loving this weather so far. Looks to continue as well.

    Very nice for building fence as well👍 Reply With Quote
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  • Nov 29, 2020 | 13:24 5
    Quote Originally Posted by sumdumguy View Post
    A few inches/feet of fresh snow would be sweet for ski-dooing 👍
    careful what you wish for
    she's 2.5 ' here in the trees Reply With Quote
    fjlip's Avatar Nov 29, 2020 | 13:41 6
    Quote Originally Posted by caseih View Post
    careful what you wish for
    she's 2.5 ' here in the trees
    Better get at the trails! Get healthy, immunity, etc...

    Name:  Snow mo cal.jpg
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Size:  92.3 KB Reply With Quote
    GDR
    Nov 29, 2020 | 14:01 7
    Quote Originally Posted by woodland View Post
    A few sleds are going here but when the quad gets around anywhere yet I don’t think it’s a very smooth ride. Cows and I are loving this weather so far. Looks to continue as well.

    Very nice for building fence as well👍
    Are you still pounding posts? I did a bunch earlier and am pretty well caught up building. Haven't tried but would think there is too much frost now. Reply With Quote
    Nov 29, 2020 | 18:17 8
    Quote Originally Posted by GDR View Post
    Are you still pounding posts? I did a bunch earlier and am pretty well caught up building. Haven't tried but would think there is too much frost now.
    Can’t push them in with the loader but we have vibrator mounted on the hoe and that can go through 2 feet of frost. There’s very little frost in the sod and none in the bush or worked ground since it’s quite dry with snow cover. This summer the fencing was done in mud, mosquitoes, and +30*c............ not sure which is easier?

    Enjoying it anyway. Sure saves on feed with the corn not getting buried deep and bedding too. Reply With Quote
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