Bumper Canola Crop

[Guest]

Just about every one was saying this until a week or two after combines were rolling
Lots were trusted advisors
Why dont they have to answer for this ?
Why doesnt anyone even ask ???

[Rareearth]

Are you kidding, driving by the beautiful flowering yellow crops, they looked awesome, best ever, etc (sarcasm). Only JD had the best , most reliable information live and in real time to trade or sell. It’s a beautiful concept at what cost, and who’s expense?

[the big wheel]

Just about every one was saying this until a week or two after combines were rolling
Lots were trusted advisors
Why dont tgey have to answer for this ?
Why doesnt anyone even ask ???

Excellent point how many farmers got burned by this info as in selling for 2 bucks or more under what they maybe should have been? The price was set based on those numbers.

But first let’s take care of last years screw job.

[Guest]

And after they realized the gig was up , they tried to tell us 35 BPA was a bumper crop when it takes near 40 to break even

[bucket]

Just about every one was saying this until a week or two after combines were rolling
Lots were trusted advisors
Why dont tgey have to answer for this ?
Why doesnt anyone even ask ???

Because they are experts....

Why doesn't a politician have to answer for their lies and corruption????

Same deal....

Advisors make money either way ...they don't care ...they are there to comfort your decision...if questioned about it...they will turn it on you and say you were comfortable with your decision .

Disclaimer ....I dont grow canola but is there really 19mmt canola crop in 2020????my guess is somewhere between 18-18.5mmt

[Guest]

and too many people repeat this drivel without getting in their car and checking some fields when the "big bumper hoax" is taking place
"another record crop on the prairies"
"sell some canola, its only going one way"

and all the while all the farmers knew in the middle of july after the heat wave and no rain

tweety is right on how fk-n stupid we are

[blackpowder]

There is a boots on the ground wheat tour in the US. Can't be hard.

[bucket]

There is a boots on the ground wheat tour in the US. Can't be hard.

Yup...many organizations do crop tours and also allow for adjustments like a derecho event...

The US farmers also have sales reporting to help measure those adjustments...

In canada you have a guy like Townsend make a prediction before the canola crop was done flowering and stuck with it...

Although no reporter questioned the fact either...and since the WP received liberal money they were sort of caught up in the nonsense....

[GDR]

There is a boots on the ground wheat tour in the US. Can't be hard.

Canola might be a bit trickier to predict than wheat. There was lots of talk here how good the canola was gonna be until the combines rolled. I have been pleasantly surprised by what looked like a short thin crop and have also checked where the leak in the combine might be with a swath so big it was hard to harvest.

[farming101]

Farm yield here this year was just under 92% of 2019

[jazz]

and all the while all the farmers knew in the middle of july after the heat wave and no rain

tweety is right on how fk-n stupid we are

I can only surmise the reason why as many farmers fall prey to marketing disinformation and have no patience to see they marketing year play out, is there are so many of them stretched for cash flow. Its become sort of a cash churn business now.

They just have to sell, no matter the price. Rental payments, no equity and rolling leases coming due all the time. Many of my BTO neighbors are filling and emptying bags at the same time at harvest.

Any BTO should be able to get a couple million dollar line of credit shouldnt they? Park expenses for 6 months. I mean interest rates are 2.5%. Thats peanuts to service until spring.

Then there is another group working to take leverage over the market where they can. I was on some guys farm this summer who had been storing durum for 5 yrs. tax problem? maybe.

[bucket]

CEBA has zero interest and a 33% grant at the end currently...

Why doesnt cash advances have at least a zero interest rate....and then a grant at the end ...and a two year term???????????

Maybe the rocket scientists disguised as farm representatives missed those announcements about CEBA....maybe didn't notice how quickly they were set up....

Politicians have been arguing about agristabilty for years and any adhoc takes months...

[Rareearth]

The question Growers don’t ask often enough or at all, crop inputs( new products, export sales etc)
“Show me the data”
real data, verifiable, Third party, western canada, CGC, etc

[Guest]

Farm yield here this year was just under 92% of 2019

average around here i bet is 75-80%, and probably 60-70% of 2013 , the last true bumper
and this is canola country

[Guest]

There is a boots on the ground wheat tour in the US. Can't be hard.

less than bumper crop is not permitted in the news until after the fact