Scare tactic

[ALICIA]

I don't know if its just a scare tactic or not but word in the east is that in the fall we are only going to get 30 cents for a top steer calf.
If this is true I am trying to get my self into a position that if that is the case I have a nuff feed for my cattle and I sure hope you's do to.
It looks to me like we already have to hope for next year to be better.

[cowman]

I'm going to take my "beating" next week on my yearlings. Doesn't really even bother me anymore! I think one of the guys in the grain section expressed it very well when he told me basically"When you are in a losing market, accept the fact that this is the reality of that market, eat the loss and move on"! Can't hold them forever, so take the loss, and try not to get screwed again!
The sad fact is we all are in a situation, where we can expect to lose for a minimum of another year...that is very probable? Now there might be a miracle and suddenly the border will open...but I truly doubt it? Not this year?
If Kerry wins the fall elections I doubt we will see the border open for at least a couple of years or probably longer?
I know a lot of people say I am a pessimist! But a wise man once told me there are three kinds of people...optimists, pessimists, and realists! I do believe I am a realist?

[kato]

We've noticed that in this market, to start talking about a crash will make it happen.

Remember in the winter when things hit bottom? That was preceded by a bunch of doom and gloom talk, then guys got scared, and started selling as fast as they could, flooded the market, and made the predictions true.

A few weeks later, some came to their senses, and it calmed down and improved a bit.

It takes nothing to flood the market any more. In normal times, a scare will drop prices by increasing marketings, but now, in abnormal times, it is exaggerated by tenfold.

Keep an eye on who is predicting the bad prices. Could they be in the market for some feeders? I would guess that there are some out there who have figured this little game out and are going to try and use it to make a buck.

If everyone keeps their heads, and doesn't jump on the panic bandwagon, we will all be better off in the long run.

[grassfarmer]

Surely we can see that hoping "next year will be better" is obviously not going to work. We have got to get organised, off our backsides and create a better and brighter future. If we do the sky is the limit, if we don't we will permanently be in hock to a few transnational corporations. I wouldn't hang about waiting for them to "give" us a "better year."

[kato]

I'm not saying hang around waiting for a better price, I'm saying try and keep it orderly, because our supply/demand thing is so precarious.

Let's avoid underfinished and overfinished and sell them when they're right. Take the lickin, and hope for an average.

It's such a fine line to walk that we can create our own wrecks without a lot of effort.

Let's just don't get in a panic and dump a lot of cattle at once that we wouldn't normally be selling.

[BFW]

Kato, those are wise words and as a buyer of feeder cattle I believe that ranchers must avoid flooding the market with feeder cattle in an effort to support prices. However, you must also be flexible in your marketing plans and be prepared to take a better price when it becomes available even if it is somewhat below your target. You have often mentioned the $40.00/cwt that cattle were selling for in February. The reality is very few if any QUALITY animals sold at that price although some sold in the high 50's to mid 60's for a brief period of time before moving much higher (85.00-100.00) later in the spring. Still some people are holding on claiming they would not sell for $40.00/cwt when the fact is the market gave them an opportunity to do much better. There is a saying that the markets operate on greed and fear..., how true.

[grassfarmer]

Kato, I wasn't referring to your comments but those of Alicia who posted the original thread.
BFW - thanks for highlighting some truths about the $40 last winter. Too often these myths become legends when they go uncorrected.

[ALICIA]

I'm just doing what I nomally do every year, sell what I have to sell to make sure I have the feed for the rest.
Do you see the National tonight, they run a story something about the human form of mad cow, came right out and said it was caused from eatting beef that had the disease. The reported should be fired and tv station sued. As far as I've been told they still have never proved that this is the case. Inocent until proven guilty. I know innocent lives are at stake, well our life is at stake if the bad report is false.

[cowman]

I saw that story too, Alicia. Good thing the CBC is doing everything possible to help finish us off?
This is balanced reporting?