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Nov 16, 2020 | 07:31 1 ................ Reply With Quote
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  • Nov 16, 2020 | 08:26 2 This is a rich mans crop....when a neighbour is depressed with a 36bpa canola crop because he realizes he will not make money after planning and spending for a 45bpa ....then a heat wave hits with no smoke ....chances are you need deep pockets and mother nature to love you... Reply With Quote
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  • GDR
    Nov 16, 2020 | 08:34 3
    Quote Originally Posted by bucket View Post
    This is a rich mans crop....when a neighbour is depressed with a 36bpa canola crop because he realizes he will not make money after planning and spending for a 45bpa ....then a heat wave hits with no smoke ....chances are you need deep pockets and mother nature to love you...
    More is always better but 36 x 12 is still $432. That's a pile of groceries.

    I sold last week for $12.25 dec. There were specials to $12.70 for spring. I bet there is upside potential yet but gotta pull the trigger at some point. Reply With Quote
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  • Nov 16, 2020 | 08:37 4
    Quote Originally Posted by GDR View Post
    More is always better but 36 x 12 is still $432. That's a pile of groceries.

    I sold last week for $12.25 dec. There were specials to $12.70 for spring. I bet there is upside potential yet but gotta pull the trigger at some point.
    I think guys poured the groceries to it for 45bpa and priced at 10 bucks a bushel because that looked OK. .

    Some were short/ emptied out on the contracts which is why the increase in prices....

    With a normal rainfall 10 bucks would have been the high... Reply With Quote
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  • Nov 16, 2020 | 08:49 5 I would expect an increase in our production cost also. Equipment and repairs, fuel,
    Seed chemical all due to virus related production
    Problems legitimate or not. Reply With Quote
    GDR
    Nov 16, 2020 | 08:58 6
    Quote Originally Posted by bucket View Post
    I think guys poured the groceries to it for 45bpa and priced at 10 bucks a bushel because that looked OK. .

    Some were short/ emptied out on the contracts which is why the increase in prices....

    With a normal rainfall 10 bucks would have been the high...
    Yes I guess that would suck, especially if they had to buy some contract back. Reply With Quote
    Partners's Avatar Nov 16, 2020 | 09:05 7 At 12 bucks plus lots should be priced now. Reply With Quote
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  • Nov 16, 2020 | 09:22 8
    Quote Originally Posted by Partners View Post
    At 12 bucks plus lots should be priced now.
    Holding for spring. I am betting a buck higher at that time once the bins are emptied. Gotta make up those lost heat blasted bushels somehow. Reply With Quote
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  • Nov 16, 2020 | 15:43 9
    Quote Originally Posted by jazz View Post
    Holding for spring. I am betting a buck higher at that time once the bins are emptied. Gotta make up those lost heat blasted bushels somehow.
    Who needs Vegas? Gotta a have a couple of bins to “play” with. Got 3/4 of the crop sold which is very unusual for us so the rest gets to sit and see what happens............ probably plummet like cattle prices but there’s only one way to find out. Reply With Quote
    Nov 16, 2020 | 16:52 10
    Quote Originally Posted by woodland View Post
    Who needs Vegas? Gotta a have a couple of bins to “play” with. Got 3/4 of the crop sold which is very unusual for us so the rest gets to sit and see what happens............ probably plummet like cattle prices but there’s only one way to find out.
    Are cattle prices rebounding? Reply With Quote
    blackpowder's Avatar Nov 16, 2020 | 18:20 11 Highest cost crop to grow here.
    Highest margin potential too. Reply With Quote
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  • Nov 16, 2020 | 20:41 12 Feeders up 75 dollars a head from two weeks ago...maybe woodland will get a stronger market yet . Reply With Quote
    Nov 16, 2020 | 20:41 13 LMFAO..... better book your canola seed or the new and improved varieties will be sold out!

    I am so over that sales pitch. Let the high testosterone farmers compete for and drive up the price on stuff that in some cases only gets a name change!

    If we don't see some soil moisture replenishing rains next April it will be pretty hard to get excited about spending big money on the high cost and risk of getting canola established in dust. Reply With Quote
    Nov 16, 2020 | 21:33 14 Jan 21 crush margin at $123.55, $36.84 higher than a month ago.

    Jan soybeans gapped higher tonight(barely) and is leaving behind resistance. Jan bean oil closing in on 38/cwt

    Nov Canola basis as bad as -46 wow. Bills to pay.... Reply With Quote
    Nov 16, 2020 | 21:39 15 Thanks won oh one. Reply With Quote
    Nov 16, 2020 | 22:07 16 I’m hoping to see basis drop to under -15 in the April to July period assuming crushing and exporting continues at current rate., barring any blockages or strikes. Reply With Quote
    Nov 16, 2020 | 22:13 17 5 under for May del self haul to the plant. Have sold a bit into that Reply With Quote
    Nov 16, 2020 | 22:16 18 Name:  Black Swan Instagram.jpg
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    I didn't think canola could transmit Covid-19 Reply With Quote
    Nov 16, 2020 | 22:37 19
    Quote Originally Posted by farming101 View Post
    5 under for May del self haul to the plant. Have sold a bit into that
    Some components of what made up my specialty canola premium over commodity canola are shrinking.
    Difference in basis between the two, the locked in positive basis is set in stone but the usual negative basis of commodity canola might shrink as the marketing year continues. And there isn't much carry in the futures out to July which my basis is locked in against.

    I don't think I hit it yet

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    Not that I know of. Reply With Quote
    Nov 16, 2020 | 22:43 20 The basis is fixed? You don't add a basis premium to whatever the regular basis is at the time? Reply With Quote
    Nov 16, 2020 | 23:05 21 My contract: fixed basis over July contract. No adding positive and negative basis to net positive. Only positive!!!

    How I see it as being even better:

    Fixed basis, add the usual negative commodity canola basis plus the carry in the market between nearby and July.

    $500 futures. Let's say the fixed basis is positive $50. A regular basis is usually a negative value, say $30. And lets give the market $10 in carry.

    Early(Oct to Dec) commodity canola pricing:

    $500 - $30 = $470

    Late(July) specialty canola pricing:

    $510 + $50 = $560

    A difference of $70.

    I kinda see the negative basis in commodity canola as a gain in specialty canola pricing because it isn't deducted off specialty pricing( debatable theory) And carry is a given fact.....until there is very little or an inverse which we are seeing now.

    Clear as mud?
    Last edited by farmaholic; Nov 16, 2020 at 23:09.
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    Nov 16, 2020 | 23:16 22 Think so....
    Cargill specialty canola has the basis premium as an addition to whatever their basis for the day is for generic.

    Just add the premium to the price of the day.
    Example: April delivery is +56 so today the April price is 553.90 + 56 = 609.90 Reply With Quote
    Nov 16, 2020 | 23:23 23 I think Richardson's specialty crush is the same as you describe.

    But only a schtoopit foolaholic would want to be in a Clearfield Nexera program like I am, unlike Richardson's or Cargill's Reply With Quote
    Nov 16, 2020 | 23:29 24 Figure this out:

    April del 9 under May
    May del 5 under May
    June del 25 under July
    July del 23 under July

    Either they know something or they are going to shut the generic line down for the summer or someone is asleep at the wheel

    Exports are 1,112,100 tonnes ahead of last year at this time
    Last edited by farming101; Nov 16, 2020 at 23:33.
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  • Nov 16, 2020 | 23:44 25 Some GrainCos can choose to export their purchases or crush them domestically. I would think they would do what was more profitable. Those numbers make it look like they WANT IT NOW. ALSO, take into account there is an inverse or very little carry in the market and it screams that "WANT IT NOW" even louder.

    S/U appear to be heading quite low. Pipeline supplies? Reply With Quote
    Nov 17, 2020 | 06:38 26 Name:  Screenshot_20201117-063632.jpg
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    Looks good Reply With Quote
    Nov 17, 2020 | 08:57 27
    Quote Originally Posted by wiseguy View Post
    Sold all the canola off the combine

    Good luck to all !
    Did you buy back paper? Reply With Quote
    Nov 17, 2020 | 09:01 28
    Quote Originally Posted by wiseguy View Post
    No never !

    Took the money and ran !
    Well ...WTF....Mr. Wisenheimer ...you are not following the experts advice????

    sarcasm...just in case you missed it. Reply With Quote
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  • Nov 17, 2020 | 09:22 29
    Quote Originally Posted by wiseguy View Post
    Had a very dry year

    No July rain

    Yields were well below average

    All canola was sold off combine

    End of sad story !
    But you can make it up with agristability or pulling your agri-invest along with the CEBA.... right?

    Just poking with more sarcasm. Reply With Quote
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  • Nov 17, 2020 | 09:23 30 Canola looking to go inverse
    May -July already inverse
    Soybeans already inverse
    Buyers are wanting soybeans and canola now, just need demand to remain stable to see prices in the teens. Reply With Quote