Canola

[Rareearth]

Hope it rains in May.

I would bet 75% of the current year, (20/21) crop has been delivered or contracted.
This is in the first 25% of our crop year.
Record rail movement and shipping

I believe there is down side risk yes, but how far and for how long? Not long. This would creat even more grower selling. Prices are related to supply and demand, if every one sells early, this leaves more time for price strength

Once Sask farmer comes clean and lets us know when he is selling I’ll consider selling the remaining balance on our farm. I assume his vision, savvy, cash flows are as good and better than most.

[Guest]

i dunno
we have no canola thanks to hail
but its early dec. , long time until combines roll here
there will be lots of speculators with pants around ankles and sore red arses
i don't buy it , that the high may be in , too much panic buying going on
remember , the people doing the buying , have all the info , they're plainly scared shitless
ask yourself the last time that 75% of the entire canola crop was spoken for in early dec.? and i happen to believe thats a logical guess

[errolanderson]

Be aware, a number of grain markets are now showing signs-of-cracking . . . including corn, soybeans, soymeal (all trending lower). Wheat futures remain in-a-downtrend.

Demand has to hold or else; soyoil and canola will feel-the-impact (IMO). This is a global market . . . .

[TASFarms]

Panic is right, offering new crop for $11.50 in December

[Guest]

Wheat futures may be meaningless with feed wheat testing $7 in many places
And once the barley is all gone ....
Nearly is now

[farming101]

March 2021 chart
Just one nearby resistance line and a bunch of support lines. (All lines below closing price are support)
Black lines are boundaries for the recent trend higher. I should take them out because they are no longer in focus but it shows where prices have come from. As of today's close March is still outperforming the previous trend higher boundaries.
Bout all the chart watchers can do now is see what happens this evening...
Should add, significant volume today indicating rolling out of Jan contract but also price weakness.

[farming101]

Commitment of Traders Dec 1, 2020
Yes that's right, I think, zero managed money traders short..

[Rareearth]

Is it possible that with the exporter ports at full capacity for next, well let’s just say 60 days, and the importers fully booked and their ports at maximum capacity, that they can relax chasing the market higher as everything logistics is maxed out?
I think so, now they will focus deferred purchases, other country origins as harvests progress, and nearby futures can soften(a little).

With no carry in the deferred months, farmers will sell for current nearby delivery, no incentive for growers to wait till June (usually premiums)cost of carry, storage risk, summer holiday can be planned , etc

[bucket]

Is it possible that with the exporter ports at full capacity for next, well let’s just say 60 days, and the importers fully booked and their ports at maximum capacity, that they can relax chasing the market higher as everything logistics is maxed out?
I think so, now they will focus deferred purchases, other country origins as harvests progress, and nearby futures can soften(a little).

With no carry in the deferred months, farmers will sell for current nearby delivery, no incentive for growers to wait till June (usually premiums)cost of carry, storage risk, summer holiday can be planned , etc

Does that mean there is no money in bins this year?

[farmaholic]

Are we headed for a bit of a sell off. Its been quite a run.
Covid Xmas doldrums ahead.

I'm down/off about thirty cents a bushel from the peak. This is where I dig my heels in and ride it all the way to the bottom. Schtoopit thing is if I went to 100% sold from 60% I would still be higher priced on the 40% than "most" of what I already have priced. I told you guys obstinance and greed aren't good marketing qualities, now if I would only heed my own advice.

I wonder what a good general April rain would do to prices. I think the cupboard will essentially be bare by then. Everything priced may not be delivered but I doubt there will be much left to price.

Go to 80% old crop sold?

Use any spring rally, if there is one, or continued rise in futures to price newcrop? But as dry as it is in the Ghetto now, that would be a gargantuan display of hope and faith and possibly topped with a thick layer of schtoopitity.

[errolanderson]

Are we headed for a bit of a sell off. Its been quite a run.
Covid Xmas doldrums ahead.

I'm down/off about thirty cents a bushel from the peak. This is where I dig my heels in and ride it all the way to the bottom. Schtoopit thing is if I went to 100% sold from 60% I would still be higher priced on the 40% than "most" of what I already have priced. I told you guys obstinance and greed aren't good marketing qualities, now if I would only heed my own advice.

I wonder what a good general April rain would do to prices. I think the cupboard will essentially be bare by then. Everything priced may not be delivered but I doubt there will be much left to price.

Go to 80% old crop sold?

Use any spring rally, if there is one, or continued rise in futures to price newcrop? But as dry as it is in the Ghetto now, that would be a gargantuan display of hope and faith and possibly topped with a thick layer of schtoopitity.

Flash drop at the opening tonite . . . . March tested a low of $567 per tonne. Commodity markets are as solid as demand holds.

[farmaholic]

Flash drop at the opening tonite . . . . March tested a low of $567 per tonne. Commodity markets are as solid as demand holds.

Could technicals soon determine nearby direction rather than fun-da-mentals?

[TASFarms]

Flash drop at the opening tonite . . . . March tested a low of $567 per tonne. Commodity markets are as solid as demand holds.

Didn’t the same thing happen when it hit $550

[errolanderson]

[ATTACH]7190[/ATTACH]

Could technicals soon determine nearby direction rather than fun-da-mentals?

Combo of both (IMO) . . . . Corn now appears rolling over due to fallout in ethanol, then technicals kick in to drive selling. Funds have the hammer both up and down.

Remember, canola has already rallied $100 per tonne.

[farmaholic]

Combo of both (IMO) . . . . Corn now appears rolling over due to fallout in ethanol, then technicals kick in to drive selling. Funds have the hammer both up and down.

Remember, canola has already rallied $100 per tonne.

The second comment is probably at the forefront of speculators thoughts as well.