• You will need to login or register before you can post a message. If you already have an Agriville account login by clicking the login icon on the top right corner of the page. If you are a new user you will need to Register.

Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Canola

Collapse
X
Collapse
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

    #46
    Originally posted by Rareearth View Post
    Woodland singles are good, home runs matter.

    Locking in profits, difficult to get ahead when you have cost of production numbers that never trigger a profit. 3 bad years and 1 good then locking in or limiting upside is not appealing to me.

    Marketing, selling, hedging, storing, etc and timing is about:
    - the trend
    -basis
    - most importantly fundamentals , ill wait and make my decisions with best information I can gather at the time. Seems very little to no risk with waiting right now
    - cash flow
    At least with grain you can lock the bins and sit if your cash situation allows it. Nothing like feeding a bunch of yearlings as the price keeps sliding when nobody expected it. After putting 6 more months of feed in them you finally have no choice but to get taken out behind the woodshed and get less per head than at the start. Sure leaves a sour taste behind. Must not have been too horrible since we’re still doing it.

    And waiting for the price to come back again currently. Kinda was looking forward to selling this year as there’s 15% more heads but the gross is looking to be less than last year which was ......... ok.

    Next year country baby🍀

    Comment


      #47
      Did one thing right got a decent basis a while back on Jan for dec delivery. 13 is in sight. Now I finally did something right.

      Ha will sell at 12.85 or higher not waiting for 13. Don’t want to jinx it.

      Comment


        #48
        from "Seasonal Canola" thread;

        farming101, "December could move to nearly 38/cwt based on today's strength. It would be ripe for a pullback at that level.
        And remember, as usual the reality may turn out to be somewhat different"

        Seeing we're at 38.48, any revised thoughts, or tidbit of news that is going to keep this thing rolling?

        Comment


          #49
          Dec hit 38.73 so far today moving through 38 with great aplomb

          Jan basically is the front month now as Dec contract begins to wind down quickly next week

          Watching for close above 37.95 on Friday - positive

          39.57 Jan will knock out the latest short term downtrend pattern

          40.69 is super long term resistance

          Also today, 562.20 taken out in July 21 Canola

          Comment


            #50
            Pretty common to be 40 cents or a lot higher between 2007 and the first half of 2014.

            My chart shows the highest close on monthlys at 68.15 cents

            https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/ZLZ20/interactive-chart https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/ZLZ20/interactive-chart

            Comment


              #51
              Originally posted by beaverdam View Post
              Pretty common to be 40 cents or a lot higher between 2007 and the first half of 2014.

              My chart shows the highest close on monthlys at 68.15 cents

              https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/ZLZ20/interactive-chart https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/ZLZ20/interactive-chart
              Bought some Dec bean oil 55 puts on June 26 08. The closing price that day was 67.46

              May 5 2014 price went under the median line and hasn't been above it since, so if it goes over it will be notable, but not historic
              Last edited by farming101; Nov 18, 2020, 16:14.

              Comment


                #52
                Don't often see canola green, while beans and oil are both red.

                Comment


                  #53
                  Originally posted by beaverdam View Post
                  Don't often see canola green, while beans and oil are both red.
                  Sign of it being topped out for now ?

                  Comment


                    #54
                    Beans and bean oil now turning green.

                    Comment


                      #55
                      2nd chart commitment of traders - number of traders active by week, total and by type

                      Click image for larger version

Name:	OpenIntN17.jpg
Views:	1
Size:	53.0 KB
ID:	770414
                      Click image for larger version

Name:	Icecanolatradertotals.jpg
Views:	1
Size:	82.7 KB
ID:	770415

                      Comment


                        #56
                        Miss the odd day whens the last time had a fall of more than $

                        Comment


                          #57
                          Nov 16 Jan went down $1.20
                          UP something like 27/39 days

                          Comment


                            #58
                            All markets here getting decidely toppy. Wheat barley canola beans lupins basically range bound now in @ $5 to $10 range depending on commodity.

                            Aussie crop is darn huge.

                            Internationally maybe market is similar.

                            All eyes on corn for direction some think here

                            Comment


                              #59
                              World canola/-apeseed stocks and stocks to use ratios
                              Click image for larger version

Name:	World Canola stocks.jpg
Views:	1
Size:	80.2 KB
ID:	770447
                              Click image for larger version

Name:	2020 21 World Canola forecasts.jpg
Views:	1
Size:	56.6 KB
ID:	770448

                              Comment


                                #60
                                Industry/Buyers probably doesn't like to see the light at the end of the pipeline!


                                At what price, will price ration demand?

                                Any 2021 production problems could make markets interesting.
                                Last edited by farmaholic; Nov 26, 2020, 15:28.

                                Comment

                                • Reply to this Thread
                                • Return to Topic List
                                Working...
                                X

                                This website uses tracking tools, including cookies. We use these technologies for a variety of reasons, including to recognize new and past website users, to customize your experience, perform analytics and deliver personalized advertising on our sites, apps and newsletters and across the Internet based on your interests.
                                You agree to our and by clicking I agree.