Test Canola Test

Commodity Marketing

Tools

Canola

Test
Nov 26, 2020 | 18:04 61 Like I said in an earlier post, a big correction is on its way. Having sold to get to 55% into May/June was the best thing I did and recommended to others.

Absolutely no guarantee its going to have a leg up further than it has reached so far. Soon other countries production prospects come out and most likely don't have enough time to cause a continued increase.

Even with vaccine news, this covid thing is going to drive everything downward for a while especially stocks of many companies. Sold some of those also, one should never be greedy. Reply With Quote
  • 1 Like


  • Nov 26, 2020 | 18:52 62 We are at 60% sold and shipped on canola and 30 % new crop already ... good / bad or otherwise, won’t judge anyone else’s position but I agree with you Richard , this current situation makes me nervous . Add to rumours of China potentially canceling soybeans just helped push us to that point . I can see a run again later as canola will be nearly out by spring . Just an observation at this point could be wrong , been wrong lots before
    Barley continues to move , feed barley targets hitting at $4.75 next fall already
    Locals are having a very hard time even finding barley already and it’s still November. Barley will be extremely scarce in the new year imo .
    Tremendous amount sold and shipped already .

    Wheat will be the only thing left in bins come spring that will be available.
    Well and good Fabas apparently lol .
    Last edited by furrowtickler; Nov 26, 2020 at 18:55.
    Reply With Quote
  • 2 Likes


  • blackpowder's Avatar Nov 26, 2020 | 18:59 63 Not sure how to deal with a marketing thread.
    Good reminder thanx, gonna sell some more.. Reply With Quote
  • 2 Likes


  • Nov 30, 2020 | 12:38 64 Pretty much an outside day lower in BO today. The monthly will still be painting a big green bar which helps the picture a lot. Still I would expect some sideways to lower activity for a while. Offers prices are still seeping lower but seem to be getting picked up.(Weak longs not liking today)
    Appreciation in the CAD might stop any Canola advances till competing oils say different Reply With Quote
  • 1 Like


  • Nov 30, 2020 | 13:35 65 Hope it drops a other $20 a tonne and get some more sales in, than this summer when supply starts to become scarce we could see a real run up in prices.


    Name:  D1CE8E17-3344-473F-A25E-FE047A85F843.jpg
Views: 1292
Size:  13.8 KB

    Houston we have lift off. Reply With Quote
    biglentil's Avatar Nov 30, 2020 | 13:50 66
    Quote Originally Posted by Sodbuster View Post
    Hope it drops a other $20 a tonne and get some more sales in, than this summer when supply starts to become scarce we could see a real run up in prices.


    Name:  D1CE8E17-3344-473F-A25E-FE047A85F843.jpg
Views: 1292
Size:  13.8 KB

    Houston we have lift off.
    Hold! Reply With Quote
    Nov 30, 2020 | 14:41 67 My market manager got picked up Friday noon.was a bit over posted price right then but dropped since. Reply With Quote
  • 1 Like


  • Nov 30, 2020 | 16:52 68 Talked to a freind of mine that works at a crusher about where they are shipping.
    Says all North America.
    He thinks huge demand increase by home use same as the flour. Reply With Quote
    Dec 1, 2020 | 08:03 69 Heads-up . . . bearish key reversal on 'King corn' yesterday . . . open interest declines. Massive long fund position. Reply With Quote
    Dec 1, 2020 | 09:22 70 When is the last Time That the high for the crop year occurred at this time of year?
    What is our closest analogous year right now? Reply With Quote
    Dec 1, 2020 | 12:38 71 Hedgers note: New Crop Canola Protection . . . November $515/MT put options traded for $15/MT today. This guarantees $500/MT canola for next fall - delivered basis without production or delivery obligation.
    No risk of margin call . . . . Reply With Quote
  • 1 Like


  • Dec 1, 2020 | 12:55 72
    Quote Originally Posted by errolanderson View Post
    Hedgers note: New Crop Canola Protection . . . November $515/MT put options traded for $15/MT today. This guarantees $500/MT canola for next fall - delivered basis without production or delivery obligation.
    No risk of margin call . . . .
    For that $15/tonne of price insurance, how would this compare with January and March futures? Reply With Quote
    ajl
    Dec 1, 2020 | 14:01 73 Sold poor quality HRS and a bit of new crop canola today. Canola was at 11.50 Oct/Nov 2021. Hesitant to pre price because weather has been so insane in this area around Edmonton for a number of years now but 11.50 off combine couldn't pass up. Who knows what will happen. Wheat has issues with sprouting and frost damage so feed wheat price same as gradable and no discounts got it done. Think it makes more sense to price '21 canola than old crop now. Reply With Quote
  • 1 Like


  • Dec 2, 2020 | 04:49 74 Canola here eased about $20 last week 10 days.

    Today pulled back another $7

    Buyers pulled bids from lunchtime till late afternoon only about 2 operating.

    Got a mate who works at a huge family farm that has been buying up abandoned dairies. These guys have expected canola crop of 8,000 tonnes. Mind boggling. Just started would be all contracted at 5he highs.

    4 combines then another 8000 acres barley after that.

    All go Reply With Quote
    Dec 2, 2020 | 07:57 75
    Quote Originally Posted by malleefarmer View Post
    Canola here eased about $20 last week 10 days.

    Today pulled back another $7

    Buyers pulled bids from lunchtime till late afternoon only about 2 operating.

    Got a mate who works at a huge family farm that has been buying up abandoned dairies. These guys have expected canola crop of 8,000 tonnes. Mind boggling. Just started would be all contracted at 5he highs.

    4 combines then another 8000 acres barley after that.

    All go
    Buckle-up . . . Improved South American rainfall . . . now larger Brazil soybean / corn production estimates. Reply With Quote
  • 1 Like


  • Dec 2, 2020 | 08:00 76 One does have to wonder what sales have been made, and what % of the crop is unsold?

    Mallee do you guys have any such stats? Reply With Quote
    Dec 2, 2020 | 09:09 77 While percentage sold is good to know; it is also good to perceive whether demand is intensifying or waning.
    If demand gets covered and buyers back off it matters not that farmers have some left to sell. Reply With Quote
    Dec 2, 2020 | 09:15 78 I'm 85% sold on a 60% of normal crop. A little drop will help me buy back some hedges put on a long time ago. I mean a short time ago but a long way down. Reply With Quote
    Dec 2, 2020 | 13:41 79
    Quote Originally Posted by Rareearth View Post
    One does have to wonder what sales have been made, and what % of the crop is unsold?

    Mallee do you guys have any such stats?

    Probably find out.

    My guess would be mostly sold some of the later huge yielding areas are just starting but I’m sure they foward contracted when prices were $600 plus base price Reply With Quote
    Dec 2, 2020 | 15:04 80 I agree 101,

    I’m certain that there has been big farmer selling into the deferred months ( for the price premium and cash flow needs later, seed, fert, land payments etc) so Grain companies will have some coverage. The grain companies will tell us they always hedge sales, some how I don’t believe this (currency probably). Are they net long or short? Big sales over normal or not, that’s the true measure of demand, show us the data.

    It’s easy to talk about demand, record shipping volumes, excellent railway cooperation, etc.

    If our May rainfall is half of the rain we received in July and August, expect 12,000 MT canola production. The domestic crushers might need to switch to soybeans, or...... ...? This is the missing narrative today. Yes it’s early, that record snow fall blew into Minnisota, we can see black dirt in our fields. Snow contributes to sloughs - Not field surface or subsoil moisture! Snow is a pain, we live and survive with growing season precipitation.

    We do live in interesting times ( not the curse) Reply With Quote
    Dec 2, 2020 | 15:06 81 No lack of data in regards to Covid. Reply With Quote
    Dec 2, 2020 | 15:28 82 8am here.

    Live bids for all grains start at 5.30 am

    Not a single bid today for canola other than a feed mill about $25 below the market.

    Not sure if buyers are waiting watching or they have accumulated all canola needed for moment in marketing programmes.

    All we know is ships of canola going out , to se Asia apparently. Reply With Quote
    Dec 3, 2020 | 15:44 83 Uncharted waters. When was the last time January was inverse to July to the tune of 17.60 on this date?
    How about never. I might be wrong. Someone find it please.

    Name:  Jan jul spread.jpg
Views: 827
Size:  43.3 KB Reply With Quote

  • LEP
    Dec 3, 2020 | 16:01 84
    Quote Originally Posted by malleefarmer View Post
    8am here.

    Live bids for all grains start at 5.30 am

    Not a single bid today for canola other than a feed mill about $25 below the market.

    Not sure if buyers are waiting watching or they have accumulated all canola needed for moment in marketing programmes.

    All we know is ships of canola going out , to se Asia apparently.
    Difference between your market and ours is that you have had a good run up and are alittle ahead of us. I expect they will be buying once we catch up pricewise. But in the mean time no one feels the need to be any more long than they are now at harvest, with a bumper crop coming off. Reply With Quote
    Dec 3, 2020 | 16:33 85 Funny today overnight moves in futures put canola up $8 but cash prices down $6.

    Was down $3 at 6 am with live prices come off another $3 since only two buyers at moment.

    Mine all priced and delivered except May 30 to 40 t yet to be harvested was miles away. Reply With Quote
    Dec 3, 2020 | 23:00 86 Well we are only about $10/ tonne away from $600!

    Only thing is, I didn't think RSF21 would get there before RSN21.

    About a $17 inverse at the moment. Reply With Quote

  • Dec 4, 2020 | 06:35 87 Looking at ICE Futures, I would describe the canola market as being in "the here and now"

    What signals are you getting for delivery or pricing?

    I imagine basis may widen as futures continue to climb, just taking a bit bigger piece of what has been a growing pie. Unless someone is short and really needs supply.

    If there are Western Canadian production problems will we see carry in the market again until supply becomes "adequate"?

    At what point do growers consider locking in some tonnes for new crop? If there is a production problem, look out. We will be ending the current marketing year with a bit of light at the end of the supply pipeline.

    My goodness, it's only been 2- 1/2 to 3 months since new crop supplies were available and look where we are....with a long way to go to Sept 2022 when new crop becomes more widely available.

    What could possibly go wrong!?!?!?!?!?!?
    Last edited by farmaholic; Dec 4, 2020 at 06:47.
    Reply With Quote
    Dec 4, 2020 | 07:00 88 Your saying you see more up side than down side?

    How about dollars?

    I'll say less than $1.50 down side worst case.

    Maybe $5.00 up side if plants have to idle back?

    But I don't have any skin in the game. I can say anything with no concerns! Reply With Quote
    Dec 4, 2020 | 07:09 89 I was just posting food for thought.

    $5 upside seems unrealistically high,
    $1.50 downside seems more realistic but I am not saying it's going to happen any time soon. But I am not a "fortune" teller. Reply With Quote
    Dec 4, 2020 | 07:19 90
    Quote Originally Posted by farmaholic View Post
    My goodness, it's only been 2- 1/2 to 3 months since new crop supplies were available and look where we are....with a long way to go to Sept 2022 when new crop becomes more widely available.

    What could possibly go wrong!?!?!?!?!?!?
    You mean 2021 right farma?

    As a former flax grower, I have found that prices can be explosive when supply and demand get out of whack. There have been yrs where flax has sold for $5 more a bushel than historically. Its there right now.

    Typically also when tarrifs and penalties are applied like China tried to do, that dissuaded some production and then you get a weather wild card like we just had 2 yrs in a row.

    Whatever supply problems exist, will Canada be able to make it up in a single season? The odds would be low.

    There is something hidden in the canola complex, who is the urgent buyers (probably china through the back door) and what is the real shortage.

    Not locking in. Reply With Quote
  • 1 Like