Canola

[farmaholic]

One of these times the Funds won't be able to help themselves.

[beaverdam]

Don't have a chart to post, but my memory is telling me that canola as a rule turns soft around mid Dec and normally stays that way till the second week of Jan. With all the strong buying during the last couple weeks, maybe the slump will come a week earlier?

[farmaholic]

RSN21 had a $15/tonne swing today.

[beaverdam]

RSN21 had a $15/tonne swing today.

I'm a bit nervous about holding till July this year, even though some years in the past, we've done very well holding to July. But I also know there are years they won't chase bin bottoms and small amounts, rather than keep bidding it up, they'll drop the price like a rock and shut down for maintenance, if your still holding expect it to drop fast. JMHO
I don't think we'll be holding anything till July this year, last rally might be Mar-Apr this year.

Not making any recommendations. as cottenpickin would say,,, DYOD!

[LEP]

Hope it rains in May.

I would bet 75% of the current year, (20/21) crop has been delivered or contracted.
This is in the first 25% of our crop year.
Record rail movement and shipping

I believe there is down side risk yes, but how far and for how long? Not long. This would creat even more grower selling. Prices are related to supply and demand, if every one sells early, this leaves more time for price strength

Once Sask farmer comes clean and lets us know when he is selling I’ll consider selling the remaining balance on our farm. I assume his vision, savvy, cash flows are as good and better than most.

Hmm, I don't know. If it's like his land where it's worth $2,500 and he wants $4,700. He may be holding out for $23.50 even though the price is $12.50.

[Rareearth]

Hope it rains in May

[farmaholic]

Am I supposed to be bullish again?

Yoyoaholic

[farming101]

Be aware, a number of grain markets are now showing signs-of-cracking . . . including corn, soybeans, soymeal (all trending lower). Wheat futures remain in-a-downtrend.

Demand has to hold or else; soyoil and canola will feel-the-impact (IMO). This is a global market . . . .

Not sure corn is weakening just yet. New highs for spot corn in China

[Rareearth]

Thank you 101, I needed that.

How things change, canola used to be focused on Japan. I haven’t heard a peep about them all fall.


Sounds like there is a new soybean crush plant in the USA that’s going to exclusive new high protein soybeans. Not sure on the agronomics of the new varieties (yields, disease, etc)but this could/would be a evolving game changer in future years(not good for canola or peas). Have to assume with new plant breeding techniques this will happen faster than we have seen in the past.

Another question, are there nematodes that are harmful to canola (yield and quality)in western Canada? Soybeans have SCN, soybean cyst nematodes, would or could they become a factor in the future?
Anyone monitoring ?
Hope it’s not another surprise chick pea type issue, would the best way to monitor this be in the screenings at cleaning plants?

[LEP]

Does that mean there is no money in bins this year?

I don't know, has the price changed from September? (Sarcasm intended.)

[bucket]

I don't know, has the price changed from September? (Sarcasm intended.)

I get the sarcasm that prices have moved but the bins are probably holding grain that is well over 75% priced ....the last little bit guys probably bit at a 25cent special...so the bins are not ROI right now for many but some guys are doing very well with them and having 2 or 3 years worth of grain sitting for the buck or two increases...

Flax paid to put in a bin....BUT I do not like storing flax....even dry flax....

[bucket]

Guys are probably contracting canola at 11.50 for september 21 ...historically a good price...problem is what percentage of expected crop does a guy price with current soil conditions...

Its not a wreck in december thru april...but rainfall is the only thing that will grow a crop right now during the growing season....around a good portion of southern Saskatchewan it is record or near record dry...

[farming101]

Some suggestions:

Go to 80% on crop insurance

Second, it's a given, we are going into spring dry. Right now we are back in the stark reality that on the prairies we still experience the remnants of the last ice age for up to 6 months of the year. Look out your window if you don't believe me.
So, it's gonna be dry in early spring till we see what rains come. I think we have till then to start pricing next crop with out too much penalty. Pricing it outright at this point is too expensive and risky.
However, I would suggest that besides crop insurance and any other insurance you might want to try it would be advisable to look at some type of market protection provided by options. No, options will not fully protect you from price erosion unless you really load up on them but they do cushion the blow and can put you in the black even if the crop turns out poor. Besides that you leave your delivery options open and you do not risk having to cover a delivery contract when there's nothing to deliver.

[farmaholic]

Over $20 inverse RSF21 to RSN21.

A while back I was harping about the benefit of my specialty canola basis contract. The positive basis and the carry as an added benefit. Well the carry went Inverse. I'm still doing Ok but not as Ok.
Negative basis still takes it's toll on generic commodity canola.

[farming101]

New high in Jan and continuous Bean Oil chart today. CAD advancing...