Test Cost-of-Gain Surging Test

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Cost-of-Gain Surging

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Oct 15, 2020 | 09:56 1 With corn and barley prices all-fired up, these are difficult times for the feeding industry. Bottomline . . . China, China, China . . . . China demand is the sparkplug. Southern Alberta feedlot delivered barley prices are now breaking above $250/MT ($5.44/bu) delivered for deferred movement. U.S. corn futures have roared with the December contract surging from $3.20/bu to above $4/bu now.

China appears to have booked Cdn barley at lower levels weeks ago. Those sales must now be covered for export movement. The question now is; will China demand hold into winter? In the meantime, the margin squeeze is on our domestic feeding market. Reply With Quote
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  • Oct 15, 2020 | 10:05 2
    Quote Originally Posted by errolanderson View Post
    With corn and barley prices all-fired up, these are difficult times for the feeding industry. Bottomline . . . China, China, China . . . . China demand is the sparkplug. Southern Alberta feedlot delivered barley prices are now breaking above $250/MT ($5.44/bu) delivered for deferred movement. U.S. corn futures have roared with the December contract surging from $3.20/bu to above $4/bu now.

    China appears to have booked Cdn barley at lower levels weeks ago. Those sales must now be covered for export movement. The question now is; will China demand hold into winter? In the meantime, the margin squeeze is on our domestic feeding market.

    When did farmers see those sales reports of barley to china ?

    Oops that's a secret. Reply With Quote

  • Oct 15, 2020 | 14:48 3
    Quote Originally Posted by errolanderson View Post
    With corn and barley prices all-fired up, these are difficult times for the feeding industry. Bottomline . . . China, China, China . . . . China demand is the sparkplug. Southern Alberta feedlot delivered barley prices are now breaking above $250/MT ($5.44/bu) delivered for deferred movement. U.S. corn futures have roared with the December contract surging from $3.20/bu to above $4/bu now.

    China appears to have booked Cdn barley at lower levels weeks ago. Those sales must now be covered for export movement. The question now is; will China demand hold into winter? In the meantime, the margin squeeze is on our domestic feeding market.
    And dangnabbit we are excluded supposedly.

    China buying aust barley via 2nd party apparently Reply With Quote
    Oct 15, 2020 | 15:35 4 Argie shaved another million tonnes off estimates Reply With Quote
    Oct 15, 2020 | 17:33 5 Canada still excluded on all Saudi barley tenders thanks to our former foreign affairs minister and her big mouth. Oh well, at least she got a big promotion. Reply With Quote
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  • BFW
    Oct 15, 2020 | 18:18 6
    Quote Originally Posted by MBgrower View Post
    Canada still excluded on all Saudi barley tenders thanks to our former foreign affairs minister and her big mouth. Oh well, at least she got a big promotion.
    somebody buying this barley guys. Maybe just end user panic but corn will come in soon because cattle and hogs need to be fed. Reply With Quote
    GDR
    Oct 16, 2020 | 08:11 7 So what are everyone's thoughts on fall calf prices. Calf run starting later here with ample grazing, this weeks weather may change that. Prices appear to be down from the last couple years. Will the market be pressured further this fall? Reply With Quote
    Oct 16, 2020 | 13:28 8 It was a tough week for the cattle board. Feeder cattle weakened steadily on ongoing corn price strength. January feeder cattle tested a low of $128.35/cwt today . . . a nasty $14/cwt decline over the past two (2) weeks. Meanwhile, December corn tested an amazing high of $4.09/bu today. More rumblings of China stockpiling.

    The rising cost of gain may be be felt in-the-heart of the fall calf run (IMO). U.S. corn may be shipped into southern Alberta to cover barley shortages this winter, but landed U.S. prices will be much higher.
    That will remain a challenge for feeders particularly in these COVID times.

    For what it's worth, technicals are now oversold for feeder cattle and overbought for corn. But does it matter as long as real grain demand holds? What can trigger a sell-down in grains is; 1. Rain 2. China cancellations. Both will occur at some point. But for now, enjoy the strength in the local cash grain market, but don't let your marketing guard down. Bull markets are known throw curve balls. Reply With Quote
    Oct 16, 2020 | 13:55 9 Corn basis is really good for farmers as well (corn in the usa), I think I heard $1.00 bu over futures. That just doesn’t happen in Canada. Reply With Quote
    Oct 18, 2020 | 22:40 10 got 410.25 for Dec20 corn. Very close.
    Above that major resistance around 4.34 Reply With Quote
    Oct 19, 2020 | 08:15 11 Risk managers note: For corn (feedgrain) growers that want to guard the recent runup in prices as a protective hedge . . . .

    A December $4.10 (deep-the-money) put option traded under 16 cents/bu today. Dec corn now trading between $4.00 to $4.05/bu. FYI . . . . Reply With Quote
    Oct 19, 2020 | 22:34 12 Feeder cattle cracked under the strain of rising corn today. November feeders slammed $5/cwt limit down approaching $130/cwt at the closing bell.

    The shake across the cattle board is apt to pressure cash cattle bids into late October (IMO). In the fed market, packers are said to be well covered. Western Cdn basis levels are weakening on record heavy carcass weights. Fed price recovery is possible in November as packers gear up for the Xmas demand season, but for now . . . .

    Apparently, Brazil has had difficulty exporting corn on supply concerns. This amazing demand-driven grain rally appears the strongest seem since 2014. Reply With Quote
    Oct 20, 2020 | 21:45 13 Corn above 410.25 tonight. Continued support for feed barley and wheat.

    Lethbridge corn quoted at 6.84 last week Reply With Quote
    Oct 21, 2020 | 19:07 14
    Quote Originally Posted by farming101 View Post
    Corn above 410.25 tonight. Continued support for feed barley and wheat.

    Lethbridge corn quoted at 6.84 last week
    Lethbridge barley as high as $6/bu delivered for March movement. Battle between export market and domestic is on. But serious losses for cattle feeders.

    Grains now overbought, but where is the rollover peak? China has the controls . . . . Reply With Quote
    Oct 21, 2020 | 19:40 15 China spot corn 11.77 CAD/bu. Jan21 futures on the Dalian exchange even higher

    Until there is some clear retreat from these levels I think the pedal will be down quite firmly Reply With Quote

  • Oct 23, 2020 | 06:51 16 https://in.reuters.com/article/china-corn-imports/exclusive-china-likely-to-issue-more-corn-import-quotas-buy-millions-of-tonnes-of-crops-sources-idUSKBN2780WS Reply With Quote
    SASKFARMER's Avatar Oct 23, 2020 | 06:58 17 Or are countries actually worried they are going to need food if wave three hits. China has lots to feed.

    Really would be nice to know what they actually pay our grain companies for grain. Reply With Quote
    Oct 23, 2020 | 07:03 18
    Quote Originally Posted by SASKFARMER View Post
    Or are countries actually worried they are going to need food if wave three hits. China has lots to feed.

    Really would be nice to know what they actually pay our grain companies for grain.
    .........thats none of your business, they will pay you just enough to make you want to do it again. Reply With Quote

  • Oct 23, 2020 | 07:04 19
    Quote Originally Posted by SASKFARMER View Post
    Or are countries actually worried they are going to need food if wave three hits. China has lots to feed.

    Really would be nice to know what they actually pay our grain companies for grain.
    I am not too worried about price ...it would just be nice to know in advance when the sales are being made....the price will follow...

    Right now western canadian farmers are deep in the dark shit of not knowing anything... Reply With Quote
    Oct 23, 2020 | 07:11 20
    Quote Originally Posted by farming101 View Post
    China spot corn 11.77 CAD/bu. Jan21 futures on the Dalian exchange even higher

    Until there is some clear retreat from these levels I think the pedal will be down quite firmly
    Agree , I just find it odd that hardly anyone talked about the grave position China has been in since early summer .
    And now it like some big deal .
    Glad to see everyone waking up lol .
    Hopefully this keeps markets strong all winter Reply With Quote
    Oct 23, 2020 | 07:25 21
    Quote Originally Posted by furrowtickler View Post
    Agree , I just find it odd that hardly anyone talked about the grave position China has been in since early summer .
    And now it like some big deal .
    Glad to see everyone waking up lol .
    Hopefully this keeps markets strong all winter
    Where do people think the record grain movement by the railways has been going?

    Ports have space and there are 45 boats waiting for grain.... Reply With Quote
    Oct 23, 2020 | 07:31 22
    Quote Originally Posted by bucket View Post
    Where do people think the record grain movement by the railways has been going?
    Yup I get it .
    Thing is prices were depressed way too long after it was a known fact that China was in big trouble cause no one will tell the truth on that and the fact that Canada never did have a big carryover of canola , or anything really .
    It cost farmers millions going into harvest with depressed prices from where they should have been
    Like you have said many times Bucket , and I agree .... we are Totally left in the dark here in regards to sales reports and the market manipulation here in western Canada is sickening lately . Reply With Quote
    SASKFARMER's Avatar Oct 23, 2020 | 07:40 23 Brazil will import Soy and Corn. Argentina is dry and has piss poor wheat yields.

    Russia and Ukraine are bone dry.

    Oh, wait Canada is an oasis and we have a great chance at a bumper crop in 2021. Yea we are ****ing dry as well.

    The USA is going to be very dry this winter.

    When grain companies come out and say we have a premium for the grain you know by the time you haul it will be that high or higher. Targets are the stupidest thing in the world.

    Here is where we will give you the grain. Wow shooting fish in a barrel. Reply With Quote
    Oct 23, 2020 | 07:49 24 I am a little embarrassed but I will tell you what I did this fall....

    I had low protein wheat ...I knew it because it was piebald ....I sold it for 5.85 a month ago to make bin space for flax....

    I wanted to haul my flax direct while combining but no takers and I would have been happy at the price of around 14.50 for flax...


    No one within a reasonable distance would take it off the combine...so I filled what I had and built a couple more bins ...price is now at 17.25 for december ...who would have thunk it..

    Did I mention there is an empty 10000 tonne concrete elevator owned by Viterra at Eyebrow , saskatchewan sitting empty that Viterra could have bought my flax for 14.50???? 20 minutes away. Reply With Quote
    Oct 23, 2020 | 07:51 25
    Quote Originally Posted by bucket View Post
    I am a little embarrassed but I will tell you what I did this fall....

    I had low protein wheat ...I knew it because it was piebald ....I sold it for 5.85 a month ago to make bin space for flax....

    I wanted to haul my flax direct while combining but no takers and I would have been happy at the price of around 14.50 for flax...


    No one within a reasonable distance would take it off the combine...so I filled what I had and built a couple more bins ...price is now at 17.25 for december ...who would have thunk it..

    Did I mention there is an empty 10000 tonne elevator owned by Viterra at Eyebrow , saskatchewan sitting empty that Viterra could have bought my flax for 14.50???? 20 minutes away.
    Their "loss". Reply With Quote
    helmsdale's Avatar Oct 23, 2020 | 09:41 26
    Quote Originally Posted by farmaholic View Post
    .........thats none of your business, they will pay you just enough to make you want to do it again.
    Living the Dream!™️ Reply With Quote
    Oct 23, 2020 | 13:19 27 Corn closed right at the daily and weekly high. Be interesting to see where it is Oct 30 to close out the month...meanwhile SK Fd Bly is on a mission
    Name:  SKFdBly102120.jpg
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  • Oct 23, 2020 | 15:48 28 China’s wheat imports across the first nine months of 2020 have jumped 168% higher year-over-year, my calculations was 5.8 million metric tonne

    See Egypt and Algeria both bought Russian wheat in latest tenders.

    Russian cupboard must be getting low all good just means have to buy elsewhere. Reply With Quote
    Oct 23, 2020 | 15:52 29
    Quote Originally Posted by bucket View Post
    I am a little embarrassed but I will tell you what I did this fall....

    I had low protein wheat ...I knew it because it was piebald ....I sold it for 5.85 a month ago to make bin space for flax....

    I wanted to haul my flax direct while combining but no takers and I would have been happy at the price of around 14.50 for flax...


    No one within a reasonable distance would take it off the combine...so I filled what I had and built a couple more bins ...price is now at 17.25 for december ...who would have thunk it..

    Did I mention there is an empty 10000 tonne concrete elevator owned by Viterra at Eyebrow , saskatchewan sitting empty that Viterra could have bought my flax for 14.50???? 20 minutes away.
    Also 10,000T of empty concrete storage for Viterra 120 kms SW of Eyebrow at Hodgeville Reply With Quote
    Oct 23, 2020 | 15:56 30
    Quote Originally Posted by Kraut View Post
    Also 10,000T of empty concrete storage for Viterra 120 kms SW of Eyebrow at Hodgeville
    Why don’t end users or farmers buy the facilities from Viterra?

    Happens here key start operation but no labour. Reply With Quote