Where did all the "bumper" crop experts go all of a sudden?????????????

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Where did all the "bumper" crop experts go all of a sudden?????????????

Sep 16, 2020 | 07:51 31
Quote Originally Posted by bucket View Post
Fuel wise per tonne ...one would think rail would be lower....but if the crusher at lethbridge needs canola....the rail would be too slow even though there are few stops. ..50 cars would be 100 trucks....this system we have is insane.
Yes well thought out plan. Suppose they can't pick up 10 cars from P&H, 5 from Viterra, 3 from PIO etc. Always said grain should be delivered to one elevator and buyers from each grain company have an office in the elevator buying and shipping. Ever been to cattle stock yards? Reply With Quote
Sep 16, 2020 | 07:57 32 Well the canola just ran 42 on our place and most crop in the area seem to be in the same boat. Groceries in for 55, didnt happen. A quarter was even switched out to durum after the beatles ate it. Heat, flooding, frost. I would say Mr Townshend has been in the office too long. Reply With Quote
Sep 16, 2020 | 08:07 33
Quote Originally Posted by Goodtime View Post
Driving by the crushers in Yorkton the last few days I doubt there is going to be any canola left in the bins by spring.....wow line ups like I have never seen all the way up to highway 16.
that $10 carrot dangling this summer caught a lot of rabbits
although no-one will admit to it now Reply With Quote
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  • Sep 16, 2020 | 08:09 34
    Quote Originally Posted by jazz View Post
    Well the canola just ran 42 on our place and most crop in the area seem to be in the same boat. Groceries in for 55, didnt happen. A quarter was even switched out to durum after the beatles ate it. Heat, flooding, frost. I would say Mr Townshend has been in the office too long.
    you did good jazz , beat us
    haven't saw under 50 here for a generation Reply With Quote
    Sep 16, 2020 | 08:17 35
    Quote Originally Posted by jazz View Post
    Well the canola just ran 42 on our place and most crop in the area seem to be in the same boat. Groceries in for 55, didnt happen. A quarter was even switched out to durum after the beatles ate it. Heat, flooding, frost. I would say Mr Townshend has been in the office too long.
    Grain stats are Kinda like weather forecasters can be constantly wrong and cost everyone big time but still never lose job. Reply With Quote
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  • Sep 16, 2020 | 08:19 36
    Quote Originally Posted by wmoebis View Post
    Grain stats are Kinda like weather forecasters can be constantly wrong and cost everyone big time but still never lose job.
    but lotsa people we trust and listen to were repeating the BS Reply With Quote
    Sep 16, 2020 | 08:38 37
    Quote Originally Posted by Horse View Post
    Just mabey its time to quit buying your crop and just grow what you can,give supply and demand a chance.
    With all the tech out there nowadays the grain cos and machine cos all know what you have to sell before you do and can set prices accordingly.
    Horse exactly! And farmers are doing all they can to make sure that data gets more and more accurate.

    Are farmers bills too high because too many decisions have too low of an ROI? How is spending your way to profitable crop production working out?

    Gotsta get me that X11 and the 80' header - maybe 2 of them, it'll improve my productivity AND make my neighbors jealous. Reply With Quote
    Sep 16, 2020 | 08:45 38
    Quote Originally Posted by wmoebis View Post
    Yes well thought out plan. Suppose they can't pick up 10 cars from P&H, 5 from Viterra, 3 from PIO etc. Always said grain should be delivered to one elevator and buyers from each grain company have an office in the elevator buying and shipping. Ever been to cattle stock yards?
    What about learning something from Australia:

    The total cost of a typical export grain supply chain in Canada is around $107 per tonne, including on-farm storage. By contrast the equivalent supply chain in Australia has a total cost of around $87 per tonne.• In Canada, the transport distance from upcountry storage to port is about six times longer than occurs in Australia, so the transport cost is higher: $49 per tonne for Canada versus $28 per tonne for Australia. However, the per tonne kilometre cost of rail freight is almost five times lower: 0.03$/NTK in Canada versus 0.14$/NTK in Australia.• On-farm storage costs on a per tonne basis are higher in Australia than in Canada, but only a small proportion of the grain bound for export is stored on farm in Australia. Most is stored in much cheaper warehouse storage. In Canada, nearly all grain is stored on farm so the total cost of the storage task is higher: $18 per tonne in Canada versus $9 per tonne in Australia.• Port receival, handling and vessel charges in Canada are two thirds of the equivalent charges in Australia for the same service: $14 per tonne in Canada versus $21 per tonne in Australia. This difference can be partly explained by higher throughput volumes at Canadian ports allowing for economies of scale and reduced regulation that enables more flexibility in loading vessels

    Good info to ponder. https://www.aegic.org.au/wp-content/...ull-Report.pdf Reply With Quote
    Sep 16, 2020 | 08:46 39
    Quote Originally Posted by tweety View Post
    Are farmers bills too high because too many decisions have too low of an ROI? How is spending your way to profitable crop production working out?

    .
    Just curious which inputs you would forgo? Around here cutting back fertility would make a 50 bu canola crop become 30bu. 30bu doesnt pay the bills either especially when buying high priced seed.

    IMHO the only reason Canadian ag still exists is that farmers were able to hit these higher yeilds consistently. I dont think there is any profit in going back to half those yeilds either.

    If you are landowner, the biggest savings right now is a refi on your loan.

    I agree on transport costs, we should let the Americans take it all out on their system instead of banging our heads against the rockies. Reply With Quote
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  • Sep 16, 2020 | 20:36 40
    Quote Originally Posted by caseih View Post
    that $10 carrot dangling this summer caught a lot of rabbits
    although no-one will admit to it now
    I sold some specialty canola I wish I hadn't.

    Very respectable prices but the spread is narrowing.

    Hindsight marketing.....always 20-20. Reply With Quote
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  • LEP
    Sep 16, 2020 | 21:18 41
    Quote Originally Posted by farmaholic View Post
    I sold some specialty canola I wish I hadn't.

    Very respectable prices but the spread is narrowing.

    Hindsight marketing.....always 20-20.
    I sold some canola at $10. A few loads to get cashflow. Didn't realize there were so many homerun hitters here. I try to bat for an average. Never sell too much at once. Just when you think you have it figured out the market bites you in the ass.

    Oh also sold some reds for .28 and durum for over $8 but again still trying to bat for an average. Reply With Quote
    LEP
    Sep 16, 2020 | 21:20 42 Wasn't directed any ill will your way farma just commenting the same general thought. Nobody hits homeruns all the time. Reply With Quote
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  • Sep 16, 2020 | 21:31 43 I try. And I hate leaving money on the table.

    Sometimes I calculate "the difference between what I got and what I could of had". The difference is staggering sometimes. I image what I could do with those coulda woulda shoulda dollars.

    Not recommended. Reply With Quote
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  • Sep 16, 2020 | 21:33 44
    Quote Originally Posted by jazz View Post
    Just curious which inputs you would forgo? Around here cutting back fertility would make a 50 bu canola crop become 30bu. 30bu doesnt pay the bills either especially when buying high priced seed.

    IMHO the only reason Canadian ag still exists is that farmers were able to hit these higher yeilds consistently. I dont think there is any profit in going back to half those yeilds either.

    If you are landowner, the biggest savings right now is a refi on your loan.

    I agree on transport costs, we should let the Americans take it all out on their system instead of banging our heads against the rockies.
    You would have to look at your soil test and find out what the percentage you are likely to get 50 bu. I'm guessing it's less the 20% Reply With Quote
    LEP
    Sep 16, 2020 | 21:38 45
    Quote Originally Posted by tweety View Post
    You would have to look at your soil test and find out what the percentage you are likely to get 50 bu. I'm guessing it's less the 20%
    I don't know the percentage for Jazz but I think I know the general area that he farms in and it is capable of big crops.

    Kinda like where Sask3 farms with alittle less rain. Reply With Quote
    Sep 16, 2020 | 21:41 46
    Quote Originally Posted by tweety View Post
    You would have to look at your soil test and find out what the percentage you are likely to get 50 bu. I'm guessing it's less the 20%
    Rain rain rain. Without even a modest amount the rest is just spent money.

    We are so tapped out of moisture now. 2021 could be very scary... we don't need a foot of rain to grow a crop but just some timely rains. In the meantime.... feel the stress.

    So for go... Reply With Quote
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    LEP

  • Sep 16, 2020 | 22:03 47
    Quote Originally Posted by farmaholic View Post
    Rain rain rain. Without even a modest amount the rest is just spent money.

    We are so tapped out of moisture now. 2021 could be very scary... we don't need a foot of rain to grow a crop but just some timely rains. In the meantime.... feel the stress.

    So for go...
    its so dry here that seldom is not even saying there is too much rain , lol Reply With Quote
    Sep 16, 2020 | 22:52 48 I hate rain!!! Reply With Quote
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  • Sep 16, 2020 | 23:56 49 Sask 2020 average estimate for canola is 35 bpa. You're doing really well at 50. Reply With Quote
    Sep 17, 2020 | 06:04 50 I always get a kick out of yield talk ...when they promote a new fungicide where XYZ farmer got 6 bpa more using it but on average it was 3 bpa ...that means to average 3 bpa increase with the guy who got 6 bpa more....someone got zero benefit and wasted his money....

    Now the 50 bpa canola crop to average to 35 bpa that means someone offset that 50 bpa with the equivalent 20bpa....50 + 20 = 70 / 2 = 35 bpa ...and it is happening...


    See Neil Townsend uses a computer program with algorithms to make his bold predictions but really its just acres x yield all added up and divided by total acres....a two cent calculator does it....


    I have met guys from crop insurance that measure bins....he doesnt name names and doesnt have to....he comment was no one get 50bpa canola yields across the board on their fields in this general area...

    If they say it thats fine but their records show its not happening...

    Sheldon's fun with flags.....Bucket's fun with math....lmao
    Last edited by bucket; Sep 17, 2020 at 06:38.
    Reply With Quote
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  • Sep 18, 2020 | 21:56 51 and all of a sudden, just like that , all the canola yield experts , have gone silent , and no one is asking them SFA?????????!!!!!!!!! Reply With Quote
    Sep 18, 2020 | 22:34 52
    Quote Originally Posted by caseih View Post
    and all of a sudden, just like that , all the canola yield experts , have gone silent , and no one is asking them SFA?????????!!!!!!!!!
    They probably have some explaining to do to their clients that pay for good advice. Not dart throwing. Reply With Quote
    Sep 19, 2020 | 08:11 53
    Quote Originally Posted by bucket View Post
    They probably have some explaining to do to their clients that pay for good advice. Not dart throwing.
    Anyone know what percent sold recommendations they gave to their 'clients' prior to harvest? Reply With Quote
    Sep 19, 2020 | 08:13 54
    Quote Originally Posted by MBgrower View Post
    Anyone know what percent sold recommendations they gave to their 'clients' prior to harvest?
    Oops looks like no bonus this year. Lmao! Reply With Quote
    Sep 19, 2020 | 08:26 55 Wonder how Townsend will attract new clients.....and his speaking fees should be falling like yields have in western canada...

    You would think a guy like that would put out a statement to correct his prediction....although statscan will play with numbers for two years...

    The industry is borrowing off new crop to make the numbers work....they are hoping for another monster crop next year....

    There is no moisture in the ground for next year....I know its a long ways off but an inch this fall won't cut it it... Reply With Quote
    Sep 19, 2020 | 08:28 56
    Quote Originally Posted by MBgrower View Post
    Anyone know what percent sold recommendations they gave to their 'clients' prior to harvest?
    Like Jim Cramer.......sell sell sell !!!!!!!!! Reply With Quote