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Sep 8, 2020 | 08:33 1 This is getting serious . . . NASDAQ now in steep fallout . . . crude oil (king of commodities) under-siege.

The watch now will be on credit markets . . . . Everything is leveraged to-the-nines and painful margin calls will create forced liquidation. Gold may break below $1,900 per oz once again as weak longs get blown out.

Even give-away money won't stop this outflow (IMO) . . . . Reply With Quote

  • Sep 8, 2020 | 09:00 2
    Quote Originally Posted by farmaholic View Post
    And grains? Fall in sympathy?
    Canola, look out above! Reply With Quote

  • GDR
    Sep 8, 2020 | 09:16 3
    Quote Originally Posted by errolanderson View Post
    This is getting serious . . . NASDAQ now in steep fallout . . . crude oil (king of commodities) under-siege.

    The watch now will be on credit markets . . . . Everything is leveraged to-the-nines and painful margin calls will create forced liquidation. Gold may break below $1,900 per oz once again as weak longs get blown out.

    Even give-away money won't stop this outflow (IMO) . . . .
    So Errol where is the money gonna go? Guys aren't gonna sit on cash are they.

    Oil drop should be good for grain basis shouldn't it? Reply With Quote
    Sep 8, 2020 | 09:17 4
    Quote Originally Posted by farming101 View Post
    Canola, look out above!
    Cdn dollar breaks uptrend on crude washout. 75 cent support? Frost, lack of grower pricing, higher soyoil and short covering all contributing to today's rally.

    January $500 put options traded under $5/MT today . . . offers about $11.20/bu floor minus basis. Reply With Quote
    Sep 8, 2020 | 09:31 5 Resistance in Jan canola at 519.50, then 530 or so. The wild west has returned Reply With Quote
    Sep 8, 2020 | 11:26 6 What has stimulated the equity markets in the last few months is fairly simple: the drop in interest rates back to zero. But like a long term heroin addict, each new fix is never as potent as the previous ones, so the dosage must get progressively higher over time. If the central banks want to avoid a repeat of the action a few months ago, they are going to have to cut rates below zero.

    The return to falling commodity prices is a natural consequence of the falling interest rate cycle in fiat currencies. We have been in this down cycle for 40 years now, and no one in authority is seriously interested in reversing it. If they wanted to challenge this policy, they would have to challenge the whole idea of a monetary system based on irredeemable free floating fiat money. That's a big step for most of those in charge of monetary policy, given that 99% are Keynesians.

    Look out below! Reply With Quote
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  • Sep 8, 2020 | 12:27 7 Soybean price chart since 1970.

    https://www.macrotrends.net/2531/soy...cal-chart-data

    Dad bought this 100 acre home farm on which I park my carcass for $10,500 in 1964. Soys were - what - $2.50 - $3.00? (None grown around here then)

    Then in 9 years they climbed to $11.51. and the farm was worth maybe $15 - $20,000.

    Today Chicago is $9.60 and the same dirt under me is likely worth $1,500,000.

    Farms pay. Right?
    Last edited by burnt; Sep 8, 2020 at 12:36.
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    Sep 8, 2020 | 12:53 8
    Quote Originally Posted by GDR View Post
    So Errol where is the money gonna go? Guys aren't gonna sit on cash are they.

    Oil drop should be good for grain basis shouldn't it?
    Very good question . . . real estate may be a target. This cheap money may snap up properties above market ask despite poor economy. Home renos (property improvements) may be a way of parking money.

    We are all in a very strange economic environment. Reply With Quote
    Sep 8, 2020 | 14:26 9 Tesla lost 21% today, the worst single day loss in history . . . . Reply With Quote
    Sep 11, 2020 | 22:43 10 Commodity markets remain at a high risk (IMO) of a setback heading into the fall . . . .

    Dr. Copper may have a say as fundamentals now point lower as the global economy slows. Also, crude oil is now in a decisive downtrend. These are commodity price leaders . . . .

    As for hot lumber, quite overbought. A lot of jobless heading into the winter market. A setback might be severe. We are likely in for some interesting price moves and re-alignments heading into the fall in some of these key commodity markets.

    Keep your marketing guard up . . . . Reply With Quote
    biglentil's Avatar Sep 12, 2020 | 15:41 11 I think your missing the 🐘 in the room. China is dumping 200B US treasuries on the market and stockpiling commodities especially copper. The fed and central banks were once the buyer of last resort for bonds and treasuries now they are the only buyer left. Canada's Central bank is committed to $5b a week in monetization. We've seen one of the deepest bear markets in gold from 2011 till 2018. We are now in a bull market in commodities and the price reversal of commodities like silver, nickel and copper has been stunning. Errol you've been bearish on gold since $900 an ounce, even hard-core gold bashers like Warren Buffet are selling banks and buying stakes in gold miners. Pension funds are starting to move into gold as well.
    Last edited by biglentil; Sep 12, 2020 at 16:57.
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    Sep 15, 2020 | 07:26 12
    Quote Originally Posted by biglentil View Post
    I think your missing the 🐘 in the room. China is dumping 200B US treasuries on the market and stockpiling commodities especially copper. The fed and central banks were once the buyer of last resort for bonds and treasuries now they are the only buyer left. Canada's Central bank is committed to $5b a week in monetization. We've seen one of the deepest bear markets in gold from 2011 till 2018. We are now in a bull market in commodities and the price reversal of commodities like silver, nickel and copper has been stunning. Errol you've been bearish on gold since $900 an ounce, even hard-core gold bashers like Warren Buffet are selling banks and buying stakes in gold miners. Pension funds are starting to move into gold as well.
    Right now, it's all about the fallout in the U.S. dollar. The China Yuan has been steadily strengthening against the dollar. If the USD begins to rebound, gold drops pure and simple. Commodities drop.

    Crude oil is struggling, copper is vulnerable . . . those are two key sister ships. Right now, this whole show right now is on the USD (IMO). Reply With Quote
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  • Sep 15, 2020 | 07:35 13
    Quote Originally Posted by errolanderson View Post
    Right now, it's all about the fallout in the U.S. dollar. The China Yuan has been steadily strengthening against the dollar. If the USD begins to rebound, gold drops pure and simple. Commodities drop.

    Crude oil is struggling, copper is vulnerable . . . those are two key sister ships. Right now, this whole show right now is on the USD (IMO).
    On a breakdown, key support for gold appears technically @ $1,840 per oz (IMO). We will all see . . . . Reply With Quote
    Sep 15, 2020 | 08:07 14 The USDX was lower than it is now for 11 years in a row starting in 2003. Could certainly go lower.
    Technically gold could be a sell, but looks iffy right now. Would need a really big margin acct Reply With Quote
    Sep 15, 2020 | 08:19 15
    Quote Originally Posted by farming101 View Post
    The USDX was lower than it is now for 11 years in a row starting in 2003. Could certainly go lower.
    Technically gold could be a sell, but looks iffy right now. Would need a really big margin acct
    Pension funds buying gold is a warning sign in-itself . . . . Reply With Quote
    biglentil's Avatar Sep 15, 2020 | 11:04 16
    Quote Originally Posted by errolanderson View Post
    Pension funds buying gold is a warning sign in-itself . . . .
    😄 🤣 😂 That made my day thanks for the good laugh. Reply With Quote
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    GDR

  • Sep 15, 2020 | 12:59 17 Ignorance is bliss.

    It's why I'm so happy.... Reply With Quote
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  • Sep 15, 2020 | 17:03 18
    Quote Originally Posted by farmaholic View Post
    Ignorance is bliss.

    It's why I'm so happy....
    Why worry about things beyond your control. I’m too surrounded by poo (literal and otherwise) to concern my limited grey matter with stuff like this. Now if only this swather header could pick up this badly lodged barley without plugging all the time.............. Reply With Quote
    biglentil's Avatar Sep 15, 2020 | 19:09 19
    Quote Originally Posted by woodland View Post
    Why worry about things beyond your control. I’m too surrounded by poo (literal and otherwise) to concern my limited grey matter with stuff like this. Now if only this swather header could pick up this badly lodged barley without plugging all the time..............
    Think of it as insurance. Position yourself properly and you can weather the storm. Or you can ignore the financial mess central bankers have created but you will not be able to ignore the consequences. Reply With Quote
    Sep 15, 2020 | 19:34 20 I see little consensus of "opinion" on this website.

    "Financial Planners"(Advisors) are nothing but parasites... just keep depositing. "Never try to out guess the market" .....is lazy and passive investing. They're afraid to be wrong.... "buy and hold"...... sure.

    It's hard to know where to be.

    I hate the financial services Industry.

    I know people who lost money investing in start-up gold mines.

    I had been investing in GIC's when I started saving,until the wheels fell off the rates. Then into stinking mutual funds....useless. Then into ETF's.... not much better. My portfolio should be way further along than it is for the amount of time I've been investing. Seems my parents never saw as many market "corrections" as I have.

    Should have invested MORE into farmland and some into real estsate. Reply With Quote
    Sep 15, 2020 | 19:36 21
    Quote Originally Posted by biglentil View Post
    Think of it as insurance. Position yourself properly and you can weather the storm. Or you can ignore the financial mess central bankers have created but you will not be able to ignore the consequences.
    THe thing is, if things get as bad as the doomsters are prophecising, the critters that are making the poo that Woodland is surrounded by are likely one of the best forms of insurance anyways, provided he has the means to protect them. Reply With Quote
    Sep 15, 2020 | 19:38 22
    Quote Originally Posted by AlbertaFarmer5 View Post
    THe thing is, if things get as bad as the doomsters are prophecising, the critters that are making the poo that Woodland is surrounded by are likely one of the best forms of insurance anyways, provided he has the means to protect them.
    That "insurance" needs to eat and can get sick. Reply With Quote
    Sep 15, 2020 | 19:49 23
    Quote Originally Posted by farmaholic View Post
    That "insurance" needs to eat and can get sick.
    But it is edible, keeps indefinitely through all seasons while on the hoof, makes milk, duplicates annually, (100% annual return on paper) etc. Might not want to keep all 4000 if feeding by hand without access to diesel fuel or electricity though. Perhaps barter a few hundred in exchange something else, like weapons, or friends to help guard the livestock.
    I cannot find any good recipes for gold or silver or TSLA stock. Reply With Quote
    Sep 15, 2020 | 21:04 24 Reply With Quote

  • biglentil's Avatar Sep 15, 2020 | 21:05 25
    Quote Originally Posted by farmaholic View Post
    I see little consensus of "opinion" on this website.

    "Financial Planners"(Advisors) are nothing but parasites... just keep depositing. "Never try to out guess the market" .....is lazy and passive investing. They're afraid to be wrong.... "buy and hold"...... sure.

    It's hard to know where to be.

    I hate the financial services Industry.

    I know people who lost money investing in start-up gold mines.

    I had been investing in GIC's when I started saving,until the wheels fell off the rates. Then into stinking mutual funds....useless. Then into ETF's.... not much better. My portfolio should be way further along than it is for the amount of time I've been investing. Seems my parents never saw as many market "corrections" as I have.

    Should have invested MORE into farmland and some into real estsate.
    Every dog has its day and so does every investment. Real estate and farmland has already had its day imo. The junior resource sector is just off all time lows and has entered into a new bull market imo. I look for under the radar and undervalued projects. If you look hard enough gold can be bought in the ground in the best mining district in the world for $10 an ounce. For example one that ticks all the boxes for me is Lincoln Gold Mining trades under the symbol LMG on the TSX-V. Lincoln has a 500k ounce 43-101 compliant proven gold resource in Nevada and California with bluesky potential to expand on the current resource. The CEO Paul Saxton is a seasoned geologist that has put 6 other projects into production he plans to do the same in 2021 with Pine Grove Nevada. The 2014 Production and Economic Assessment report (PEA) gave the Pine Grove project a NPV(5%) of $55m USD at $1400 gold, at $1900 gold it would be well over $100m. Its at a lowly $5m market cap canadian with shares trading at 21 cents currently. I think its a solid bet and worth a speculative position in ones TFSA trading account where gains are tax free. However this is not investing advice and mining stocks are inherently risky and not for the faint of heart. Do your own due diligence.

    Here is the website with corporate presentation. http://www.lincolnmining.com
    Last edited by biglentil; Sep 15, 2020 at 21:55.
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  • Sep 15, 2020 | 21:49 26 Thanks Biglentil but kinda out of my comfort zone. Maybe not too big a deal for one annual TFSA deposit.

    Might be approaching the age where cash under the mattress is in my comfort zone...lol. just kidding.

    Agree on the farmland, the huge appreciation in Sask farmland is probably over. Ten or more ìyears ago would have been a good time to buy. Even housing.

    Maybe thats why I can't break the Ghetto cycle(according to wiseguy). Reply With Quote
    Sep 18, 2020 | 23:19 27 Another rough week for the tech sector. Since record highs in NASDAQ set on Sept 2nd, NASDAQ now off 12 percent in past 2 1/2 weeks. Gold is off about 6 percent from recent highs. Comments from Fed this week that interest rates will stay low for years cooled precious metals. Translation: Inflation is not a concern.

    Currency and precious metal traders now eyeing USD for market direction. USD has yet to break its downtrend.

    Grain sector has been the star of the show. Fallout in the USD has been a contributing force. China’s Sept buying spree in the grain sector ie: soybeans has taken the market somewhat by surprise. As long as china buying holds, prices may go higher, but technicals screaming overbought.

    Southern Ab feedlot barley bids recovering quickly off harvest lows. Lethbridge traded $242/MT today delivered, up $40 from late August. Yellow peas showing a little life.

    Loonie now hovering @ 76 cents U.S. USD break higher could quickly knock the Cdn lower with support now seen @ 75 cents.

    Soy complex, veg oils, corn are the star of commodities right now. Corn recovery (pulled by the ears) by beans though appears overbought. Wheat futures heating on Europe dryness.

    But looking over my shoulder at weakness of equities.This could spill into commodities as we head into October. An opinion . . . . Reply With Quote
    Sep 18, 2020 | 23:57 28 US dollar heading Stronger from here

    China holds only $1T in US treasuries while American people are going to flee to the safety of the dollar to the tune of 3-5x that

    There is no good alternative to the USD and until there is it will remain king Reply With Quote
    Sep 20, 2020 | 16:20 29 This is NOT a comment about covid19 being real or perceived don’t give a rats toss bag in context of question.

    Errol if the second wave of covid19 happens across northern hemisphere again it’s not a Covid comment per say, markets could indeed be under pressure in coming weeks?

    Can’t help but think grain may get caught in downswell? Or will fundamentals rules the roost which appears to happening at moment Reply With Quote
    Sep 20, 2020 | 19:06 30
    Quote Originally Posted by malleefarmer View Post
    This is NOT a comment about covid19 being real or perceived don’t give a rats toss bag in context of question.

    Errol if the second wave of covid19 happens across northern hemisphere again it’s not a Covid comment per say, markets could indeed be under pressure in coming weeks?

    Can’t help but think grain may get caught in downswell? Or will fundamentals rules the roost which appears to happening at moment
    Mallee, grains are fundamentally strongest of the commodity world. A second wave COVID would be a threat against industrials and energies. Believe crude and copper would be vulnerable to losses. The NASDAQ is simply a casino right now with limited fundamental backup to justify valuations.

    Technically, beans, soyoil, meal corn and canola are now overbought. A setback over the next few days, why not? But China wants to feed its people. Tariffs are simply politicing. They will fade into the rear view mirror due to ineffectiveness.

    Barley, canola, flax are very well supported with buyers. Yellow peas are finally showing some life, durum appears solid. High protein wheat was heavily oversold and now starting a recovery. The farming industry is now much healthier than most sectors of the economy.

    Should round 2 COVID occur, global growth would again be staggered, but grains will be fairly stable (IMO). Selldowns would likely met with buyers once again. An opinion . . . . Reply With Quote