Seasonal Canola

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Seasonal Canola

Sep 4, 2020 | 07:45 1 Definitely a counter seasonal year. Where are we going? If I knew that I would only go farming on sunny warmish days with a light breeze. The rest of the time the hired help could slug it out.
Short crop long tail does come to mind. The second chart shows that in 2002 and 2010(both lousy years) crop prices peaked late in the calendar year, Nov 27 and Dec 22 respectively, and then in the new calendar year the peak price was attained early in the year, Jan 8 and Feb 9 respectively.
So, looking at prices now and the news that there is demand for canola, realize that the demand will be filled or the demand will go away at some point. Where will prices be when that happens. I have no idea. This flash drought/extra heat for some parts has the trade concerned about the crop right now.
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  • Sep 4, 2020 | 07:56 2 Thanks for putting up that first chart again
    It is following the trend .
    That first time you put that up confirmed what some of us have been saying . Lots of unknowns but looks ok for now 👍 Reply With Quote
    Sep 4, 2020 | 08:00 3 Interesting 101,
    Bottom chart showing higher highs, with resistance at roughly 510ish close to where we are now, then next resistance 600 ???
    As for demand getting filled, it’s hand to mouth and the tummy’s are empty with USA soy, canola, and other oils not have a great production year. The question should be who or what country is next in the production cycle can produce a above average crop to elevate the need for higher prices, I thinks it’s South America, so what are there production prospects? I’m sure many will suggest bumper, record production etc we will find out once they start harvesting and shipping. If prices continue to firm then we will be in for a good ride. After South America soy harvest where is the next oil seed harvest of any significance? Canada next sept, usa next oct? Reply With Quote
    Sep 4, 2020 | 08:28 4 Thanks for posting 101.
    Basis is another factor though, steadily widening the last ten days.
    Kicking my self real hard for not locking in basis, but my canola is still a week away and with all this wind, I'm still not sure what I'll be able to deliver as we're already losing some to shelling in the standing, and the swaths have also blown around.
    Timing for me, if it would have came in sooner, I might already be hauling it out, especially the straight cut grain. Reply With Quote
    Sep 4, 2020 | 08:37 5 https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/...eTwoWeeks.aspx

    midwest continues to dry out, little rain forecast for next two weeks. Is the small seeded/smaller yield canola driving canola higher or is it the whole veggie oilseed market? Can't see many beans harvested in our area, no rain in July and no rain in Aug. Reply With Quote
    Sep 4, 2020 | 08:41 6 Still looks to me like canola bins were empty, or all sold waiting delivery for August just prior to new crop. So the stocks that were remaining should be the new floor that crushers require prior to new crop. Reply With Quote
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  • Sep 4, 2020 | 12:50 7 good thread
    wonder why chuck never comments on these? Reply With Quote
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  • Sep 4, 2020 | 12:59 8
    Quote Originally Posted by caseih View Post
    good thread
    wonder why chuck never comments on these?
    Far too worried about trump and fabricated climate charts Reply With Quote
    Sep 8, 2020 | 19:28 9 Frost pushed November canola up $7/tonne today.

    Will it continue? Reply With Quote
    Sep 8, 2020 | 19:31 10 Possibly,
    Short covering, shorting farmers, with a short crop Reply With Quote
    Sep 8, 2020 | 19:38 11 lots of speculators got caught with pants down
    everyone on here knew there was no carryover
    elevators all over couldn't fill trains
    sooner or later it had to catch up with their creative accounting Reply With Quote

  • Sep 8, 2020 | 21:19 12 11$ targets got picked up here in Manitoba this morning. Crops looking not too bad but just barely started into the canola. Over a dollar higher then last fall, hard not to just say screw it and truck it straight to town. Reply With Quote
    Sep 9, 2020 | 07:21 13 Brazilian Soybean Shortage Upends Seasonal Marketing: A Brazilian soybean shortage has flipped the seasonal marketing pattern upside down. DTN lead analyst Todd Hultman tells Brownfield the soybean market is challenging its highs for the year when it normally bottoms out going into harvest. “Typically Brazil has plenty of soybean supplies coming off a big harvest as they had earlier this year, and we would expect them to keep exporting at least deeply into the fall. But that wasn’t the case. They actually ran low on supplies earlier than usual, and that was signaled by the higher prices that we saw in Brazil in late July.” He says there is still a lot of downside risk and encourages producers to consider both old and new crop sales. Hultman says while Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans are surging, China is still woefully below targets set in the phase one trade agreement. Reply With Quote
    Sep 9, 2020 | 07:30 14 Jan canola challenging resistance this am. Closes over 519.50 needed.
    RSI14 @ 79.99
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  • Sep 9, 2020 | 10:54 15 Thank you for keeping on track on this commodify marketing thread 👍👍 Reply With Quote
    Sep 9, 2020 | 11:00 16 You and Errol provide much appreciated info
    Not like half the garbage posted on this marketing thread .
    Keep focused guys , Including myself lol , lots Going on right now in markets .
    Canola jumped to $10.90 locally...... finally Reply With Quote
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  • Sep 9, 2020 | 11:24 17 They already know there’s a shit storm coming. Crops are ok in our area. No bumpers but other areas I drove thru yesterday that usually have big crops are very poor. Whether it was hail or drought. The crushers in Yorkton are gonna be suckholing for product this winter! Reply With Quote
    SASKFARMER's Avatar Sep 9, 2020 | 11:34 18 A month ago big specials 10.40 deliver now and today they have 11.

    Con artists and the Bullshit big yields and carry over. Canada has a fu led up system of crop info. Reply With Quote
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  • Sep 9, 2020 | 12:36 19
    Quote Originally Posted by furrowtickler View Post
    You and Errol provide much appreciated info
    Not like half the garbage posted on this marketing thread .
    Keep focused guys , Including myself lol , lots Going on right now in markets .
    Canola jumped to $10.90 locally...... finally
    yes thanks guys ,this is very good insight for a marketing challenged fellow like myself , also!!
    11$ immediate here yesterday
    tech analyst also !
    Last edited by caseih; Sep 9, 2020 at 12:39.
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  • Sep 9, 2020 | 14:42 20 Looking for something to thresh. Took a sample of canola. No screaming hell. Hope it’s not indicative of the rest. ADM jumped harvest basis from 25 to 30. Said they have enough. BS Reply With Quote
    Sep 10, 2020 | 07:09 21 Malaysia palm oil stocks 'still pretty tight' - thanks to weak Indonesia output

    Official data show Malaysian inventories failing to show their typical seasonal rebuild, as the end of an importer restocking drive hits less hard than forecast Reply With Quote
    Sep 11, 2020 | 07:43 22 DTN's Cliff Jamieson commentary on canola basis.

    In addition to what is highlighted in the article, my observation is that higher grain prices are often accompanied by wider basis. Doesn't matter if there is a shortage of product or not.

    Not always but often. Also, there will be lots of canola to fill the fall shipping season. Lots.
    Not saying we are in for a price collapse because as some of the posts have highlighted, there is a bit of concern as to global veg oil feedstock levels.

    One other thing that has happened is that some of the spring threshed stuff was not good. Was not there to get the system through till new crop comes in


    https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/we...asis-weakening Reply With Quote
    Sep 11, 2020 | 07:54 23 Seems RSN21 butts it's head against $530/tonne. If it breaks that where is the next level of resistance?

    Maybe my focus should be on support? But is there any reason for the current rally to reverse? Reply With Quote
    Sep 11, 2020 | 08:07 24 No one should be signing new canola contracts for less than 11.75 right now.....

    The very least the industry could do is ask before they phuck farmers with their big crop nonsense....

    Elevators in the southern prairies all going hard to find dry good canola ...why....to blend off the wreck up north at the coast....

    Disclaimer.....I don't grow canola ....and have no skin in that game....
    Last edited by bucket; Sep 11, 2020 at 08:20.
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    Sep 11, 2020 | 08:24 25
    Quote Originally Posted by farmaholic View Post
    Seems RSN21 butts it's head against $530/tonne. If it breaks that where is the next level of resistance?

    Maybe my focus should be on support? But is there any reason for the current rally to reverse?
    I don't know. Your idea of watching support and not letting it slip too far is a good one. Likely need to wait till Nov or so to get a clearer picture of resistance levels for RSN21.

    Support: First alarm bell would ring about 517.10. Sept 14 update: raise that to 518.20. Expect support levels to continue to rise for a while yet
    Last edited by farming101; Sep 14, 2020 at 08:23.
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  • Sep 11, 2020 | 12:52 26 In light of recent events.....let's move that target price to 12 bucks. Reply With Quote
    Sep 11, 2020 | 13:12 27 I love "moving" targets.... Reply With Quote
    Sep 11, 2020 | 13:18 28
    Quote Originally Posted by bucket View Post
    In light of recent events.....let's move that target price to 12 bucks.
    Welcome analytical thoughts from the curmudgeon who doesn't grow it. I will take this insight right to the bank! Then I will hug and kiss some poisonous snakes. Reply With Quote
    Sep 11, 2020 | 13:29 29
    Quote Originally Posted by Kraut View Post
    Welcome analytical thoughts from the curmudgeon who doesn't grow it. I will take this insight right to the bank! Then I will hug and kiss some poisonous snakes.
    Chuck, did your GERMAN shepherd eat your meds again. Reply With Quote
    Sep 11, 2020 | 16:44 30 A bit sauer (sour) for a Friday.

    As Bart would say to Moe. I'd like to speak with Hugandkiss, first name Amanda. Always ended with, you little rat bastard, but poisonous snakes, really!

    I'm waiting for beans in the teens to develop. I'll take that to the bank. Reply With Quote