Seasonal Canola

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Seasonal Canola

Sep 12, 2020 | 22:57 61
Quote Originally Posted by farmaholic View Post
.......so much for the premium on already priced Speciialty canola.
yep , our $12.75 hi acid don't look so good now
but the $14 two years ago sure was good Reply With Quote
Sep 12, 2020 | 23:06 62
Quote Originally Posted by bucket View Post
Kraut...

Here are few factors to consider.....

1. The derecho event affected 37 million of farmland
2. Its been dry in the states...bad for soybean yields
3. Canola is priced off soybeans and they are moving higher...
4. There has been a hard frost on many acres of canola.
5. the yields are not proving out on canola this year...
6. Elevators are focusing on canola deliveries for the next couple of weeks in the southern prairies....
7. Provincial crop report put canola at 35 BPA... lower than previous expectation of 41 BPA...thats a reduction of nearly 20 percent...


Positive or negative?????/
our marketing adviser was still telling us 2 weeks ago to cash in on rally, as were others ,biggest crop ever ,
how in the **** can all these experts be dead wrong ?????????????????????????????????????????????
SCIC comes out every year to do big game damage on crops and always amaze me when they get yield f-kn near right on
canola yield down 25 % here plus a massive hail strip of SFA
we've been played again
there is absolutely fu-k all for canola left in bins , this is gonna come back to haunt these fu-kers real soon
we have zero regular canola , first time in life
anyone that has it , put it under lock and key
$15 is right around the corner
Last edited by caseih; Sep 12, 2020 at 23:31.
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Sep 12, 2020 | 23:12 63 Farming 101 posted the best graph 1 month ago , and he was spot on 👍 Reply With Quote
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  • Sep 12, 2020 | 23:15 64
    Quote Originally Posted by furrowtickler View Post
    Farming 101 posted the best graph 1 month ago , and he was spot on 👍
    i should be paying him a subscription
    he has sure helped me Reply With Quote
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  • GDR
    Sep 13, 2020 | 00:45 65 Swathing canola today. From the excess rain drown outs and wet conditions disease load, then the hot and dry finish gonna be severe yield drop on my farm. Will know in a couple weeks but I'm expecting half of normal yields. Looked way better from the road or edge of field. Glad I havent pre sold any. Reply With Quote
    Sep 13, 2020 | 06:43 66
    Quote Originally Posted by caseih View Post
    i should be paying him a subscription
    he has sure helped me
    Canola was sold out back in May. A good chunk of last yrs crop was garbage.

    It was when my savvy old dad slipped a load of garbage in to RP and got No. 1 for it, I knew the canola complex was running on fumes and hoping for a big new crop.

    That disappeared around here after the first week or so in August after we got a week of 30+. I suspect it disappeared for the northern guys after that frost.

    No bags in the canola fields this yr. Reply With Quote
    Sep 13, 2020 | 06:48 67 canola yields down 20-25 % here
    again , where is this monster crop on the prairies?
    apparently it needs water after all ? Reply With Quote
    Sep 13, 2020 | 06:58 68
    Quote Originally Posted by caseih View Post
    canola yields down 20-25 % here
    again , where is this monster crop on the prairies?
    apparently it needs water after all ?
    This is coming off so far at 6-7% moisture. I can store that without worry well into next spring.

    We could have the trade by the balls if we wanted to.

    Guys who usually bag it are hauling it home to bins, maybe thinking the same thing. Reply With Quote
    Sep 13, 2020 | 07:13 69
    Quote Originally Posted by caseih View Post
    our marketing adviser was still telling us 2 weeks ago to cash in on rally, as were others ,biggest crop ever ,
    how in the **** can all these experts be dead wrong ?????????????????????????????????????????????
    SCIC comes out every year to do big game damage on crops and always amaze me when they get yield f-kn near right on
    canola yield down 25 % here plus a massive hail strip of SFA
    we've been played again
    there is absolutely fu-k all for canola left in bins , this is gonna come back to haunt these fu-kers real soon
    we have zero regular canola , first time in life
    anyone that has it , put it under lock and key
    $15 is right around the corner
    And your marketing advisor got paid for the advice?

    Zero skin in the game ...and probably listens to people like Townsend. ...

    Ask him if there is a refund for bad calls that cost you money?

    Seems to me they always remind you of the money they made you not what they lost you.....

    I walk in my fields to clear my head....count heads or bolls or pods....advisors look at graphs and others commentary...

    Farmers live the NDVI in real time. ...advisors study it a week later...

    Just some perspective... Reply With Quote
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  • Sep 13, 2020 | 07:23 70
    Quote Originally Posted by bucket View Post
    I walk in my fields to clear my head....count heads or bolls or pods....advisors look at graphs and others commentary...

    Farmers live the NDVI in real time. ...advisors study it a week later...

    Just some perspective...
    Actually, I think these guys are relying on satellite imagery and that is steering them wrong. They cant possibly get a good feel for the entire crop without hundreds of in field visits every few weeks and most cant afford to have a staff like that other than USDA.

    I wouldnt pay for any service like that. Reply With Quote
    Sep 13, 2020 | 07:33 71
    Quote Originally Posted by jazz View Post
    Actually, I think these guys are relying on satellite imagery and that is steering them wrong. They cant possibly get a good feel for the entire crop without hundreds of in field visits every few weeks and most cant afford to have a staff like that other than USDA.

    I wouldnt pay for any service like that.
    Nope.... but there are farmers that offer up the info for free or worse yet pay for it through a fieldview or being direct linked with their equipment....


    Now if someone was willing to pay me for information ...that would be different topic....although I doubt they could afford it...

    Every week from May to september a weekly crop report comes out for free to the industry just to ram us a little harder.....last week they gave yield data....free....the industry won't even report publicly what they are doing and don't have to....its like pulling hens teeth to find out when the next train is coming and what they are buying after it... Reply With Quote
    Sep 13, 2020 | 07:50 72 Most experts guessing yields have about as much a clue about crop yields as the retired school teacher hail adjusters ...... nearly zero .
    A good example of how very little they know about plant growth.......
    After the big hail storm hit this area the damage was very evident on most crops . I could tell within two days what damage was going to be .
    Later when the three wisemen from Coop hail came out and did their assessment based on their acute knowledge based on science lol , we had a discussion. That’s where they got taught a lesson about real life agronomy . They did not like it but I was not backing down . They left here not happy going across 20 1/4’s a second time .
    They still came back a bit low , but I proved my point and signed off .
    Point is when the combines got going , the yield data shows exactly what we seen as damage from day one . Yields drop off Nearly exactly as the plant damage showed within days of that hail. They felt they paid too much , well they were dead wrong , they were still 10% low on average so far .
    Point is not everyone is an “expert” as they claim and as many have pointed out here , realities in the combine are proving that .
    Yes some areas have very good yields , but that’s the same as every year. But there are many areas where as seen by on here that prove Mother Nature has taken a lot off the yields the past two months. But that gets pushed aside by experts and the focus remains on the pockets of good yields Reply With Quote
    Sep 13, 2020 | 07:51 73
    Quote Originally Posted by jazz View Post
    Actually, I think these guys are relying on satellite imagery and that is steering them wrong. They cant possibly get a good feel for the entire crop without hundreds of in field visits every few weeks and most cant afford to have a staff like that other than USDA.

    I wouldnt pay for any service like that.
    The crops in this part of the province looked PHEnominal all summer, after a slow start due to being very dry until mid-July. The first cut hay was off some because of it.

    Soys were very tall, some up to my waist.

    However, in mid August our soy agro guy started saying that guys who think they have a huge crop might be in for a surprise when they hit the fields at harvest - low pod set, some pods that set 2 beans instead of 3...

    This is a chap that keeps tabs on hundreds of his customer's fields across a really big chunk of south-western Ontario for the company we sell IP beans to.

    In general the emergence and population was the highest he had ever see - at the start of the growing season. Ours were around the 180M+ mark when fully emerged.

    So next week will tell the tale as the early fields start to come off. Looks to be average, but not the bin buster that we thought we were looking at. Some fields will be exceptional, depending on who got that extra 1/2" when they needed it...

    The corn, however, is absolutely astounding around here. Looks to easily be a record crop. There could be storage issues. Reply With Quote
    Sep 13, 2020 | 08:05 74 I remember seeing this article 6 weeks ago. That didnt age well. Or was it a marketing ploy to entice some pre booking. China mentioned.

    Another frost in NC sask last night.

    I never prebook. Thats a losing proposition imo. Could have prebooked lentils for 23 cent, they are 26c after harvest.

    'Like gold': Canadian canola prices spike as shippers find back door to China
    Last edited by jazz; Sep 13, 2020 at 08:08.
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    Sep 14, 2020 | 08:31 75
    Quote Originally Posted by farmaholic View Post
    Seems RSN21 butts it's head against $530/tonne. If it breaks that where is the next level of resistance?

    Maybe my focus should be on support? But is there any reason for the current rally to reverse?
    Support at 518.20 now. Expect to rise for a while yet, perhaps at a slower rate Reply With Quote
    Sep 14, 2020 | 09:14 76
    Quote Originally Posted by furrowtickler View Post
    Most experts guessing yields have about as much a clue about crop yields as the retired school teacher hail adjusters ...... nearly zero .
    A good example of how very little they know about plant growth.......
    After the big hail storm hit this area the damage was very evident on most crops . I could tell within two days what damage was going to be .
    Later when the three wisemen from Coop hail came out and did their assessment based on their acute knowledge based on science lol , we had a discussion. That’s where they got taught a lesson about real life agronomy . They did not like it but I was not backing down . They left here not happy going across 20 1/4’s a second time .
    They still came back a bit low , but I proved my point and signed off .
    Point is when the combines got going , the yield data shows exactly what we seen as damage from day one . Yields drop off Nearly exactly as the plant damage showed within days of that hail. They felt they paid too much , well they were dead wrong , they were still 10% low on average so far .
    Point is not everyone is an “expert” as they claim and as many have pointed out here , realities in the combine are proving that .
    Yes some areas have very good yields , but that’s the same as every year. But there are many areas where as seen by on here that prove Mother Nature has taken a lot off the yields the past two months. But that gets pushed aside by experts and the focus remains on the pockets of good yields
    What never comes into consideration for hail damage. There is increased weed pressure for the next couple of years. Usually hail happens after the incrop herbicide window closes, but even if it is before the crop just doesn’t compete the same after. Reply With Quote
    Sep 14, 2020 | 09:40 77
    Quote Originally Posted by farming101 View Post
    Support at 518.20 now. Expect to rise for a while yet, perhaps at a slower rate
    The carry between Nov and July is now only $12/t.

    Hmmm... Reply With Quote
    Sep 14, 2020 | 14:43 78 Up another $5/tonne. Talk of record crop has been minimal recently. Reply With Quote
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  • Sep 14, 2020 | 19:24 79 Some people will enjoy both stellar crop yeilds AND real good grain prices. It happens.

    Sask-ahem-farmer-ahem-3-ahem.

    😉👍 Reply With Quote
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  • Sep 15, 2020 | 06:42 80 China spot price for ****seed oil set a new high today...China ****seed oil futures inverted out to July 21 contract. No carry Reply With Quote
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  • Sep 15, 2020 | 07:06 81
    Quote Originally Posted by farming101 View Post
    China spot price for ****seed oil set a new high today...China ****seed oil futures inverted out to July 21 contract. No carry
    I wonder if Canadian canola futures will get inverted yet. Reply With Quote
    Sep 15, 2020 | 07:25 82
    Quote Originally Posted by wiseguy View Post
    **** the futures !

    What are you waiting for !

    Sell er theys just playing with yous !
    Huh?

    Don't pay attention then. Reply With Quote
    Sep 15, 2020 | 07:29 83
    Quote Originally Posted by wiseguy View Post
    The futures mean **** all its the net price they pay you !

    A click of the computer can make er 11.75 instead of 10.75 !
    Agreed but it's definitely a part of the equation.

    Especially if you already have a locked in basis on committed tonnage. Reply With Quote
    Sep 15, 2020 | 08:31 84
    Quote Originally Posted by wiseguy View Post
    The futures mean **** all its the net price they pay you !

    A click of the computer can make er 11.75 instead of 10.75 !
    Good tool to use for sure. Reply With Quote
    Partners's Avatar Sep 15, 2020 | 09:24 85 Don't expect prices to sky rocket.
    I am sure turdo will piss someone off. Reply With Quote

  • Sep 15, 2020 | 09:30 86
    Quote Originally Posted by Partners View Post
    Don't expect prices to sky rocket.
    I am sure turdo will piss someone off.
    Prices will rise for the middleman handling our grain between the west coast and the end users. ... Reply With Quote
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  • Sep 15, 2020 | 20:11 87
    Quote Originally Posted by biglentil View Post
    If you have targets move em up or pull em completely. They are short and China is hungry if we all band together and refuse to sell we could move the market to its fair value in the $13-14 territory. This harvest happy hour bullshit needs to stop imo.
    Ah yes, the infamous targets. Just hanging there in LIMBO on the sacred tree of Target Prices....where all the low hanging fruit gets picked first. Then the higher fruit is left to the fate of a staring contest.

    It's a fùcken schtoopit one sided deal.

    Increase the target well above the current market or pull them.

    On another topic stated above. "GrainCo pre-sold grain", be it old crop carry forward or new crop. How can you sell something you don't physically own? Would hate to be on the wrong side of that. Could hurt, or at least they can "try" to pass the pain onto growers with below market price values.

    This commentary is worth exactly what you paid for it, nothing....its just an opinion. Reply With Quote
    Sep 16, 2020 | 10:37 88 Where are we at with this thread....canola at 532 for january...wasnt 519 resistance? Reply With Quote
    Sep 16, 2020 | 14:12 89 ADM LLOYD BIDS: RSX UP $9.30/MT: SEP/OCT $11.34...NOV $11.57...DEC/JAN $11.72...FEB/MAR $11.87...APR/MAY $11.98...JUN/JUL $10.97...SEP/OCT/NOV FALL OF'21 $10.96

    Farma your charts are showing their teeth 👍 Reply With Quote
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  • Sep 16, 2020 | 22:14 90
    Quote Originally Posted by bucket View Post
    Where are we at with this thread....canola at 532 for january...wasnt 519 resistance?
    Ya 519.50, next was the Sept 14 high of 530.90.

    Next could be around 542.30. Resistance is just that, resistance. It is not a target to shoot for to make the next sale. Reply With Quote