Seasonal Canola

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Seasonal Canola

Sep 11, 2020 | 17:40 31
Quote Originally Posted by checking View Post
A bit sauer (sour) for a Friday.

As Bart would say to Moe. I'd like to speak with Hugandkiss, first name Amanda. Always ended with, you little rat bastard, but poisonous snakes, really!

I'm waiting for beans in the teens to develop. I'll take that to the bank.
Not much late rain around here to help the soybean fields. Some guys say they're quitting growing them.

Probably would have done better with canola. Reply With Quote
Sep 11, 2020 | 21:15 32
Quote Originally Posted by Kraut View Post
Welcome analytical thoughts from the curmudgeon who doesn't grow it. I will take this insight right to the bank! Then I will hug and kiss some poisonous snakes.
Call me what you want....I would be a seller between 11.75 and 12....

The system is empty ....every elevator looking for canola....it froze and what you think canola is worth 9 bucks? Reply With Quote
Sep 11, 2020 | 22:04 33 Just got into some today. Yeilds look to be down 10bu from last few yrs. Just too much late season heat, warm nights and no rainfall for the month of august.

But good news, its dry this time. Should be easy to store for whatever market signal you want to wait for. If its $11 off the combine it will be $14 in the spring. Reply With Quote
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  • Sep 12, 2020 | 00:57 34 Everyone says the bpa is off and no where near the expectation of what they put in for groceries ....

    20 mmt becomes 18mmt pretty quick with the cuts most have talked about...

    Everyone can listen to Neil Townsend estimate from mid July if they want. ...he was/is wrong.... Reply With Quote
    Sep 12, 2020 | 06:03 35
    Quote Originally Posted by jazz View Post
    Just got into some today. Yeilds look to be down 10bu from last few yrs. Just too much late season heat, warm nights and no rainfall for the month of august.

    But good news, its dry this time. Should be easy to store for whatever market signal you want to wait for. If its $11 off the combine it will be $14 in the spring.
    .......so much for the premium on already priced Speciialty canola. Reply With Quote
    Sep 12, 2020 | 06:59 36
    Quote Originally Posted by farmaholic View Post
    .......so much for the premium on already priced Speciialty canola.
    The last time I grew nexera. ...years ago....by the time I got to haul it , regular canola was worth more.....


    That was the end of growing specialty canola .....just a phuck around..... Reply With Quote
    Sep 12, 2020 | 07:10 37
    Quote Originally Posted by bucket View Post
    The last time I grew nexera. ...years ago....by the time I got to haul it , regular canola was worth more.....


    That was the end of growing specialty canola .....just a phuck around.....
    It can happen. But I have lots left to price yet.

    Beans will probably determine where canola prices will end up. Reply With Quote
    Sep 12, 2020 | 07:34 38
    Quote Originally Posted by farmaholic View Post
    It can happen. But I have lots left to price yet.

    Beans will probably determine where canola prices will end up.
    It's been over a decade since I grew it. ....I am sure yield drag and pricing are better now....I can not participate in the rich man's game of growing any canola. ....too much money involved.... Reply With Quote
    Sep 12, 2020 | 08:45 39 Kraut...

    Here are few factors to consider.....

    1. The derecho event affected 37 million of farmland
    2. Its been dry in the states...bad for soybean yields
    3. Canola is priced off soybeans and they are moving higher...
    4. There has been a hard frost on many acres of canola.
    5. the yields are not proving out on canola this year...
    6. Elevators are focusing on canola deliveries for the next couple of weeks in the southern prairies....
    7. Provincial crop report put canola at 35 BPA... lower than previous expectation of 41 BPA...thats a reduction of nearly 20 percent...


    Positive or negative?????/ Reply With Quote
    Sep 12, 2020 | 08:58 40 Bucket, there may be some near term bump in canola trying to entice selling but that tells me they are trying to get ahead of a problem down the road. I suspect the trade is playing us here. Best thing we could do is to starve it for 6 months. There is no alternative supply of that crop. We hold the hammer and this is the yr we should use it. Reply With Quote
    Sep 12, 2020 | 09:08 41
    Quote Originally Posted by jazz View Post
    Bucket, there may be some near term bump in canola trying to entice selling but that tells me they are trying to get ahead of a problem down the road. I suspect the trade is playing us here. Best thing we could do is to starve it for 6 months. There is no alternative supply of that crop. We hold the hammer and this is the yr we should use it.
    Agreed....forgot to mention the backlog of vessels on the west coast waiting for canola since mid august?

    I think the graincos trying to pull southern canola is for their benefit of blending at west coast for the impending wreck up north... Reply With Quote
    Sep 12, 2020 | 09:15 42
    Quote Originally Posted by bucket View Post
    Agreed....forgot to mention the backlog of vessels on the west coast waiting for canola since mid august?

    I think the graincos trying to pull southern canola is for their benefit of blending at west coast for the impending wreck up north...

    How can there be vessels waiting on coast when crop isn't even in the bin yet? Thought that only happened when the railroads didn't deliver now that the CWB is gone and it isn't their fault any more. Must be farmers fault for not getting the crop off and selling already. Reply With Quote
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  • Sep 12, 2020 | 09:20 43
    Quote Originally Posted by wmoebis View Post
    How can there be vessels waiting on coast when crop isn't even in the bin yet? Thought that only happened when the railroads didn't deliver now that the CWB is gone and it isn't their fault any more. Must be farmers fault for not getting the crop off and selling already.
    The paper carryover hasn't materialized into the physical carryover.....everything looks good on paper....Neil Townsend is a perfect example.....spends zero time on a combine but still believes his 42 BPA estimate on canola....35bpa published by Saskag take another 2 percent off for dockage....
    Last edited by bucket; Sep 12, 2020 at 09:41.
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  • Sep 12, 2020 | 09:31 44
    Quote Originally Posted by bucket View Post
    Agreed....forgot to mention the backlog of vessels on the west coast waiting for canola since mid august?

    I think the graincos trying to pull southern canola is for their benefit of blending at west coast for the impending wreck up north...
    If canola is at port by mid-August this would have to be old crop canola. Reply With Quote
    Sep 12, 2020 | 09:34 45
    Quote Originally Posted by Oliver88 View Post
    If canola is at port by mid-August this would have to be old crop canola.
    Exactly and the boats are now waiting for new crop....the carryover wasn't there and statscan has 2 years to doctor the numbers....at the expense of farmers...

    I am no expert and will gladly admit it but when farmers north of Edmonton are not growing their 50bpa plus crops ....where are you going to average the crop to what the experts are predicting...this is all really simple math....it for sure is not rocket science like statscan and guys like Townsend try to make it...

    Disclaimer....I have never seen my yield average higher at the end of a field than when I start it....even though through out the field I see triple digits.....at the end its always lower...and then when delivering to the elevator which is the only yield monitor that matters ...lower yet...
    Last edited by bucket; Sep 12, 2020 at 09:44.
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  • Sep 12, 2020 | 10:57 46 West Coast ship count 41 as of Sep 6

    Parked up out to Cowichan Bay Reply With Quote
    Sep 12, 2020 | 11:04 47
    Quote Originally Posted by farming101 View Post
    West Coast ship count 41 as of Sep 6

    Parked up out to Cowichan Bay
    Is there a listing of who ordered them and what they are waiting to load? How about Quorum Corp or other grain monitoring. Reply With Quote
    Sep 12, 2020 | 11:14 48
    Quote Originally Posted by wmoebis View Post
    Is there a listing of who ordered them and what they are waiting to load? How about Quorum Corp or other grain monitoring.
    Mandatory sales reporting would help take care of a lot of issues hiding in the weeds and the Friday family tea party in Winnipeg.... Reply With Quote
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  • Sep 12, 2020 | 11:18 49
    Quote Originally Posted by wmoebis View Post
    Is there a listing of who ordered them and what they are waiting to load? How about Quorum Corp or other grain monitoring.
    Not that I am aware of.

    Ships will sometimes broadcast what they are in port for generally. "Agricultural Commodities"
    Also , shipping agencies are tagged to ships in port, but not to a designated terminal. Until of course the ship docks Reply With Quote
    Sep 12, 2020 | 11:24 50
    Quote Originally Posted by farming101 View Post
    Not that I am aware of.

    Ships will sometimes broadcast what they are in port for generally. "Agricultural Commodities"
    Also , shipping agencies are tagged to ships in port, but not to a designated terminal. Until of course the ship docks
    Question.....do you think the exporters get away with this kind of bullshit in the US?

    Sales are reported by weeks end and large sales by days end....

    In Canada SFA....and the new ag critic for the conservatives helped make the mess in Canada according to her bio.... Reply With Quote
    Sep 12, 2020 | 11:45 51
    Quote Originally Posted by bucket View Post
    Question.....do you think the exporters get away with this kind of bullshit in the US?

    Sales are reported by weeks end and large sales by days end....

    In Canada SFA....and the new ag critic for the conservatives helped make the mess in Canada according to her bio....
    doubt it. Too bad for sure. Reply With Quote
    Sep 12, 2020 | 11:47 52
    Quote Originally Posted by bucket View Post
    Question.....do you think the exporters get away with this kind of bullshit in the US?

    Sales are reported by weeks end and large sales by days end....

    In Canada SFA....and the new ag critic for the conservatives helped make the mess in Canada according to her bio....
    Why was this not implemented when Marketing Freedom came in effect. What is being hidden and why? Farmers wanted CWB to report sales and price but not when others market. Reply With Quote
    Sep 12, 2020 | 11:58 53 Intel in warfare is important, the stealthy grain buyers know this and lobby the government accordingly.

    Wouldn't it be nice if we knew where the grain cos artillery was and how many rounds they had left.

    When it comes to marketing, farmers in Canada are at a disadvantage and simply out-gunned. Reply With Quote
    Sep 12, 2020 | 12:13 54 If reporting sales doesn't matter, why does tracking production?

    Just think of all the data Crop Insurance and Agstability and AgInvest has.
    That Boots on the ground gathers.
    SaskFarmer's Friday Crop Report on a Thursday.
    Satellite imagery.
    Precipitation records.

    Why do Inland Terminals want to know how much grain is represented in submitted samples? Reply With Quote
    Sep 12, 2020 | 12:18 55
    Quote Originally Posted by wmoebis View Post
    Why was this not implemented when Marketing Freedom came in effect. What is being hidden and why? Farmers wanted CWB to report sales and price but not when others market.
    It is simple...who was Liane Rood Yerry Ritz and David Anderson listening to?

    Farmers or the guys that wanted an American system without the check and balances put in place...none of those guys will admit their failings....but. ...it's starting to show .... Reply With Quote
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  • Sep 12, 2020 | 12:32 56 Twitter world has 25% of western Canada canola production that will be impacted by the frost.

    What tonnage and quality will be interesting. Reply With Quote
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  • Sep 12, 2020 | 12:51 57 Here is a sarcastic remark.....maybe Neil Townsend could run the numbers and make a public statement like he did first week of August and a monster crop...except this time numbers regarding the frost.....

    Cost every canola grower 15 bucks an acre with his stupid call...and worse yet he stands by it.... Reply With Quote
    Sep 12, 2020 | 13:03 58
    Quote Originally Posted by bucket View Post
    Here is a sarcastic remark.....maybe Neil Townsend could run the numbers and make a public statement like he did first week of August and a monster crop...except this time numbers regarding the frost.....

    Cost every canola grower 15 bucks an acre with his stupid call...and worse yet he stands by it....
    There's a strong direct inverse correlation between the number of suits you own and accountability in this country. Reply With Quote
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  • Sep 12, 2020 | 17:48 59
    Quote Originally Posted by bucket View Post
    Agreed....forgot to mention the backlog of vessels on the west coast waiting for canola since mid august?

    I think the graincos trying to pull southern canola is for their benefit of blending at west coast for the impending wreck up north...
    Graincos must have presold that massive July31 carryout that wasnt there. now the boats wait. Reply With Quote
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  • biglentil's Avatar Sep 12, 2020 | 22:38 60 If you have targets move em up or pull em completely. They are short and China is hungry if we all band together and refuse to sell we could move the market to its fair value in the $13-14 territory. This harvest happy hour bullshit needs to stop imo.
    Last edited by biglentil; Sep 12, 2020 at 22:41.
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