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Farm Solar Scam

Aug 11, 2020 | 20:38 1 Haha, 25 yr payback? Guys admits his pet virtue project hasn't even recouped half of its installation value after 12 yrs. 1% efficiency loss per year. Probably never pay itself off. Even replaced with the most cutting edge tech would still require 12 yr to pay it back.

$17,000 thrown right down the hole. $17,000 invested in the S&P 500 would be worth almost $50k now.

What a crock this whole green energy scam is. Doesn't work at any at scale. Just a big guilt project.



Last edited by jazz; Aug 11, 2020 at 20:42.
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  • Aug 18, 2020 | 17:49 2 Chuck, any comments on the rolling blackouts California is enjoying during this heat wave?
    It just doesn't make sense does it, since solar is a great fit in climates requiring AC, yet at 6:30 PM, till 10:00 they are blackouts, to prevent "risk ‘collapse of the entire system of California and perhaps the entire West."

    Couldn't be related to the time of day when the sun predictably goes down could it?

    What progress humanity has made, can't even run AC or use lights in the year 2020. Reply With Quote

  • fjlip's Avatar Aug 18, 2020 | 18:22 3 One of the three biggest SCAMS, Virus, Climate Apocalypse, Green shift(shit)... Reply With Quote
    Aug 18, 2020 | 20:01 4 Summary of solar power:
    -Unreliable
    -Expensive, brings cost up in grid
    -Leads to periods of no electricity
    -Used panels are very hazardous to the environment
    Last edited by Oliver88; Aug 18, 2020 at 22:33.
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  • Aug 18, 2020 | 21:26 5 Say it isn’t so 🤦🏻*♂️ Reply With Quote
    Aug 19, 2020 | 06:56 6 So do we know the entire story in California? Or are we going to put the entire blame on solar? California had trouble with power supply in 2001 before solar became a significant source. We have already heard from Australia that they can manage up to 70% of their supply from renewables so perhaps there are management issues in California? But don't let the facts get in the way of blaming solar for "everything" LOL

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/worl...d-heat-wave-2/

    "The last time the state ordered rolling outages was during an energy crisis in 2001. Blackouts occurred several times from January to May, including one that affected more than 1.5 million customers. The cause was a combination of energy shortages and market manipulation by energy wholesalers, infamously including Enron Corp., that drove up prices by withholding supplies."

    In 2001 it was all solar's fault? right A5? LMAO
    Last edited by chuckChuck; Aug 19, 2020 at 07:23.
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    Aug 19, 2020 | 07:20 7 ISO requested power outages following Stage 3 Emergency declaration; system now being restored FOLSOM, Calif. –The California Independent System Operator (ISO) declared a Stage 3 Electrical Emergencyat 6:28 p.m. on Saturday, Aug. 15, due to increased electricity demand,the unexpected loss of a 470-megawatt (MW) power plant,and loss of nearly 1,000 MWof wind power.The load was ordered back online 20 minutes later at 6:48 p.m.,as wind resources increased. A Stage 3 Emergency is declared when demand begins to outpace available supply, and grid operators need to tap electricity reserves to balancethe grid. Rotating power interruptionsof about 470 MWwereinitiated across the state.Extreme heat throughout the West has increased electricity usage, causing a strain on the power grid. All available resources are needed to meet the growing demand. The California ISO is working closely with California utilities and neighboring power systems to manage strain on the grid and to restore the power grid to full capacity. As portions of the grid are restored, local utilities will restore power in a coordinated fashion. Although a Stage 3 Emergency is a significant inconvenience to those affected by rotating power interruptions, it is preferable to manage an emergency with controlled measures rather than let it cause widespreadand more prolonged disruption.Click hereto learn more about System Alerts, Warnings, andEmergencies. Reply With Quote
    Aug 19, 2020 | 07:23 8 From the NY Times

    Rolling Blackouts in California Have Power Experts Stumped

    Managers of the electric system argue that a lack of power prompted the decision to enact blackouts, though demand this weekend fell short of the state’s peak years.

    By Ivan Penn, Aug. 16, 2020

    As temperatures began to rise in California on Friday and again on Saturday, the manager of much of the state’s electric grid called on utilities to cut power to hundreds of thousands of customers.

    But the rolling blackouts on those days left some of the state’s energy experts bewildered. They said that the utilities had plenty of power available and that the blackouts weren’t necessary. The grid’s capacity may be tested in coming days as temperatures are forecast to reach into the triple digits again in some places.

    “They set it up like this is a historic event,” said Bill Powers, a San Diego engineer who provides expert testimony on utility matters before the state’s regulators. “This should not have triggered blackouts.”

    The California Independent System Operator, the nonprofit entity that controls the flow of electricity for 80 percent of California, said it acted after three power plants shut down and wind power production dropped. It also cited a lack of access to electricity from out-of-state sources.

    “We understand rolling outages are not easy, and we do everything we can to avoid them,” said Anne Gonzales, a spokeswoman for California ISO. “The reason for the energy shortfall is high heat and people naturally wanting to stay cool.”

    The sweltering weather has smothered California, while wildfire season has started earlier than usual.

    The energy experts noted that the peak electricity use over the weekend fell below peaks in other years, when utilities were able to handle the demand. They also said the operating reserves of power available to the utilities were higher than the 3 percent level where California ISO has traditionally ordered a reduction in electricity use.

    The first rolling blackouts this time occurred on Friday, as temperatures reached 10 to 20 degrees above normal in California and other parts of the West. At 6:36 p.m., California ISO ordered its “Stage 3” action, where the utilities that are part of its electric grid network — primarily California’s three investor-owned power providers, Pacific Gas & Electric, Southern California Edison and San Diego Gas & Electric — cut power to some customers.

    On Saturday, as temperatures returned to triple digits, the grid operator again began its emergency procedures.

    The first-stage alert began at 6 p.m., when California ISO’s operating reserves stood at 12 percent, said David Marcus, an energy consultant and former adviser at the California Energy Commission. Its standard for the first stage had been 8 percent, according to the grid operator’s 2019 resource assessment.

    The second stage began at 6:25 p.m., when its operating reserves stood at 9.59 percent, Mr. Marcus said. California ISO listed that stage in its assessment at 6 percent.

    The final stage, 3, the rolling blackouts, began at 6:30 p.m., when operating reserves dipped to 8.9 percent but still above the 3 percent level that the operator listed last year, Mr. Marcus said.

    “It’s just misleading to say that it was because it was a hot day,” Mr. Marcus said. “I think they were being overly cautious.”

    Saturday’s peak demand, according to Mr. Marcus, reached 44,947 megawatts, much lower than the 46,797 he saw on Friday. But both of those amounts fell below the peak year for electricity use, 2006, when demand reached 50,270 megawatts, followed by 2017 with 50,116, according to data from California ISO.

    As California ISO began taking its emergency actions on Saturday, electricity wholesale costs jumped on its energy market. The prices fluctuate based on how much electricity must pass through the wires. The more electricity that must get through a particular line, the higher the price, much like increased toll prices on a highway during traffic congestion.

    Prices in locations near the Tahoe area across the state line to Reno and Carson City, Nev., spiked into the thousands of dollars per megawatt-hour, far above the typical costs of under $100.

    Ms. Gonzales said the electric grid manager did not have an immediate response to questions about the energy prices because officials were responding to the emergency.

    “But the ISO isn’t saying it’s congestion,” said Loretta Lynch, a former president of the California Public Utilities Commission. “They’re not saying a wire got burned down. It’s saying it’s a lack of power.”

    In particular, California ISO said two natural gas power plants shut down on Friday and, on Saturday, a wind farm and another gas plant stopped producing power.

    The state is currently reviewing proposals to extend the operation of old natural gas plants in Southern California. Environmentalists want the plants to remain closed because they use fossil fuels and are cooled using seawater, endangering marine life.

    “It makes for a compelling story” if you have blackouts because of a lack of power plants, Mr. Powers said. “We know there is no capacity problem,” he said. “Something odd happened.”

    What happens in the days ahead will continue to test Californians and the electric grid as California ISO forecast electricity demand Monday at near all-time peak levels.

    “If there’s really a problem and not just the ISO jumping the gun, it’s going to manifest tomorrow,” Mr. Marcus said. “Tomorrow evening, the wolf arrives.”

    Ivan Penn is a Los Angeles-based reporter covering alternative energy. Before coming to The Times in 2018 he covered utility and energy issues at The Tampa Bay Times and The Los Angeles Times. @ivanlpenn Reply With Quote
    Aug 19, 2020 | 07:56 9 Does California still have a day ahead futures market? If so there lies the problem. Reply With Quote
    Aug 19, 2020 | 08:08 10 Its a deregulated market but not sure. Reply With Quote
    blackpowder's Avatar Aug 19, 2020 | 08:59 11 Can anyone find a NY Times or Globe and Mail article that can explain why I should take money costing me 4.5% and invest a larger sum in a 25 yr project just to break even? What's the FV of $15k after 30 years?
    It's a prestige product. Reply With Quote
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  • Aug 19, 2020 | 10:20 12 Thanks for finding an expert to explain it Chuck.
    "Expert stumped"
    Having admitted defeat at explaining the laws of physics to you, I will move on to a simpler set of laws, the laws of holes, perhaps you will find them more intuitive.

    The first law of holes states
    "If you find yourself in a hole, stop digging"
    You have been calling on the infallibility of experts all this time, perhaps it would have been better to just stay out of this one, than to quote an "expert" who can't figure out why an electrical grid which has removed fossil fuel powerplants, then replaced them with 19% solar, would result in generation shortages when the sun starts setting.
    Perhaps you should have found one of the multitude of experts who have been warning California that this was inevitable, And that it will only get worse With more natural gas and nuclear plants scheduled to be decommissioned. Reply With Quote
    Aug 19, 2020 | 10:55 13 3 electricity plants shut down and imports from other states weren’t available
    but it is still all the fault of solar? LMAO. Apparently you know more than the California Operator!
    From the alleged “engineer” who said “carbon is just soot”. Reply With Quote
    Aug 19, 2020 | 10:56 14
    Quote Originally Posted by AlbertaFarmer5 View Post
    Thanks for finding an expert to explain it Chuck.
    "Expert stumped"
    Having admitted defeat at explaining the laws of physics to you, I will move on to a simpler set of laws, the laws of holes, perhaps you will find them more intuitive.

    The first law of holes states
    "If you find yourself in a hole, stop digging"
    You have been calling on the infallibility of experts all this time, perhaps it would have been better to just stay out of this one, than to quote an "expert" who can't figure out why an electrical grid which has removed fossil fuel powerplants, then replaced them with 19% solar, would result in generation shortages when the sun starts setting.
    Perhaps you should have found one of the multitude of experts who have been warning California that this was inevitable, And that it will only get worse With more natural gas and nuclear plants scheduled to be decommissioned.
    Incapable of original thought , it happens in far left socialism . Reply With Quote

  • Aug 19, 2020 | 12:35 15
    Quote Originally Posted by chuckChuck View Post
    3 electricity plants shut down and imports from other states weren’t available
    but it is still all the fault of solar? LMAO. Apparently you know more than the California Operator!
    From the alleged “engineer” who said “carbon is just soot”.
    So now I'm a soot based life form. Who knew Reply With Quote
    Aug 19, 2020 | 12:58 16
    Quote Originally Posted by Braveheart View Post
    So now I'm a soot based life form. Who knew
    Now just wait until your wife finds out That you gave her an Engagement ring made of pure soot.
    Does anyone else want to volunteer to teach Chuck chemistry? At least some very simple concepts such as the difference between a molecule and element? It looks like I am going to have my hands full explaining the law of holes, Judging by the increasing depth of his hole so far today. Reply With Quote
    Aug 19, 2020 | 14:21 17 In 1977 the price of solar photovoltaic cells was $77 for just one watt of power. Today, it’s around $0.13 per watt, or about 600 times less. The cost has generally been following Swanson’s Law, which states that the price of solar drops by 20% for every doubling of shipped product.

    CPV panels cost today around 5000$ for a 6 kw. People get ****d on installation costs, that is where the money is for companies.

    But none of that matters unless you are completely off the grid because the majority of the cost is not electricity, its distribution and fixed generation costs even if you use no power.

    If you used no power from your utility, your bill should be zero, but we all know exactly why that isn't the case. It's not that solar is a scam, what the scam is is your power bill and how you pay for power. Reply With Quote
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  • LEP
    Aug 19, 2020 | 14:38 18
    Quote Originally Posted by tweety View Post
    In 1977 the price of solar photovoltaic cells was $77 for just one watt of power. Today, it’s around $0.13 per watt, or about 600 times less. The cost has generally been following Swanson’s Law, which states that the price of solar drops by 20% for every doubling of shipped product.

    CPV panels cost today around 5000$ for a 6 kw. People get ****d on installation costs, that is where the money is for companies.

    But none of that matters unless you are completely off the grid because the majority of the cost is not electricity, its distribution and fixed generation costs even if you use no power.

    If you used no power from your utility, your bill should be zero, but we all know exactly why that isn't the case. It's not that solar is a scam, what the scam is is your power bill and how you pay for power.
    True but if you are really worried about it and all in on solar, disconnect from the grid.

    Poof, no more bills. Reply With Quote
    Aug 19, 2020 | 14:48 19 And, coincidentally, the more unreliables that get added to the grid, the higher the fixed costs go up, every single time. Reply With Quote
    Aug 20, 2020 | 07:37 20
    Quote Originally Posted by LEP View Post
    True but if you are really worried about it and all in on solar, disconnect from the grid.

    Poof, no more bills.
    Talk about completely missing the point. Do i have a pipeline line item and refinery line item monthly if i buy no diesel?

    Power should be priced based on use, no power used, no cost. Around here that cost is about 35 cents per kwh. Solar can easily compete with that. That is the scam. And that is what makes renewable energy almost impossible to incorporate along side the grid.

    Make that one little legislative change and there will be solar/wind/fuel cell/microturbines everywhere.

    Take a look at your power bill, mine shows 150 for distribution, 30 for actual power. If i used 5$ in power the distribution is still 150. Actual power cost, 33 cents per kwh. Reply With Quote
    Aug 20, 2020 | 08:11 21
    Quote Originally Posted by tweety View Post
    Talk about completely missing the point. Do i have a pipeline line item and refinery line item monthly if i buy no diesel?

    Power should be priced based on use, no power used, no cost. Around here that cost is about 35 cents per kwh. Solar can easily compete with that. That is the scam. And that is what makes renewable energy almost impossible to incorporate along side the grid.

    Make that one little legislative change and there will be solar/wind/fuel cell/microturbines everywhere.

    Take a look at your power bill, mine shows 150 for distribution, 30 for actual power. If i used 5$ in power the distribution is still 150. Actual power cost, 33 cents per kwh.
    I certainly agree that in Alberta my distribution costs are higher than my power. I pay 6.8 cents for power, my total cost works out to 20 cents a kwh. Now if I install a grid tie solar system I am payed 6.8 cents a kwh for the power I sell back to the grid. So if I install a net zero solar system for my farm it would be roughly a 14000 watt system. A ground mount makes more sense to me as it would be easier to adjust the panel angles seasonally. Total installed price last time I priced it $3 a watt or $42000. This system will produce roughly 18000 kWh of electricity per year, at 6.8 cents a kWh that is $1224 a year. 42000/1224=34 years, that doesn’t make much sense or cents to me!!! Reply With Quote
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  • biglentil's Avatar Aug 20, 2020 | 08:15 22 Solar is a rather poor investment until inflation is factored in. The economics get much better when you consider that electricity costs will likely be multiples higher 5 to 10 years from now. Its a nice hedge against inflation imo.
    Last edited by biglentil; Aug 20, 2020 at 08:18.
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    ALBERTAFARMER4's Avatar Aug 20, 2020 | 08:36 23 I priced out a system recently. 17KW DC/15KW AC at $1.43/watt (modules, wiring, inverter, and racking). Plan on doing it myself so labour costs shouldn't be too bad.

    I used to really want to go off grid until I realize that being off grid is a huge disadvantage. All surplus power in an off grid system is waste.
    Last edited by ALBERTAFARMER4; Aug 20, 2020 at 08:40.
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    Aug 20, 2020 | 08:36 24
    Quote Originally Posted by biglentil View Post
    Solar is a rather poor investment until inflation is factored in. The economics get much better when you consider that electricity costs will likely be multiples higher 5 to 10 years from now. Its a nice hedge against inflation imo.
    Yes, as Chuck keeps reminding us, the economics will only get much better in the future, as more unreliables are added to the grid, both the fixed, and the generation costs will increase out of all proportion to even inflation. One of the few things he gets right. Just look to California, or Australia for an example. Reply With Quote
    Aug 20, 2020 | 08:39 25
    Quote Originally Posted by ALBERTAFARMER4 View Post
    I priced out a system recently. 17KW DC/15KW AC at $1.43/watt (modules, wiring, inverter, and racking). Plan on doing it myself so labour costs shouldn't be too bad.
    Have you looked into using your Tesla battery as storage? Would that improve the economics? Reply With Quote
    Aug 20, 2020 | 08:46 26
    Quote Originally Posted by ALBERTAFARMER4 View Post
    I priced out a system recently. 17KW DC/15KW AC at $1.43/watt (modules, wiring, inverter, and racking). Plan on doing it myself so labour costs shouldn't be too bad.
    $24,310 + your labour?
    You will be able to run 5 HP aeration fans only when it is sunny out? Reply With Quote
    ALBERTAFARMER4's Avatar Aug 20, 2020 | 08:48 27
    Quote Originally Posted by AlbertaFarmer5 View Post
    Have you looked into using your Tesla battery as storage? Would that improve the economics?
    Vehicle to grid (v2g) is not available for Tesla vehicles. I think Nissan Leaf has this capability. It's in the future once EV batteries can have a million mile life (Sept 22 of this year). Reply With Quote
    ALBERTAFARMER4's Avatar Aug 20, 2020 | 08:55 28
    Quote Originally Posted by Oliver88 View Post
    $24,310 + your labour?
    You will be able to run 5 HP aeration fans only when it is sunny out?
    $21,800, I calculated the cost per watt on the AC power because that is what you actually use. This system will be for our house and will displace the annual energy used by the house and charging 2 cars. Reply With Quote
    Aug 20, 2020 | 09:48 29
    Quote Originally Posted by ALBERTAFARMER4 View Post
    $21,800, I calculated the cost per watt on the AC power because that is what you actually use. This system will be for our house and will displace the annual energy used by the house and charging 2 cars.
    Charging EV's with solar actually makes a lot of sense, at least in your case, as a farmer, your vehicles likely sit at home unused during the sunny part of the day. You can use the power while it is being produced, instead of selling the excess into the midday glut when solar is at its peak, and inevitably, smart meters will punish grid tied systems like Chuck's.

    How those economics, and logistics will work for the average 9-5 er is not so certain. Reply With Quote
    ALBERTAFARMER4's Avatar Aug 21, 2020 | 07:12 30
    Quote Originally Posted by AlbertaFarmer5 View Post
    Charging EV's with solar actually makes a lot of sense, at least in your case, as a farmer, your vehicles likely sit at home unused during the sunny part of the day. You can use the power while it is being produced, instead of selling the excess into the midday glut when solar is at its peak, and inevitably, smart meters will punish grid tied systems like Chuck's.

    How those economics, and logistics will work for the average 9-5 er is not so certain.
    Agreed. Solar may not be a good use of capital depending on your location or needs. That is why it’s critical to do the math. In Alberta we have no time of use billing so it doesn’t matter when you buy or sell. Reply With Quote