Us gdp

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Us gdp

Aug 11, 2020 | 08:01 1 Rebounding at 20% per annum levels through Q3 and Q4.

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Aug 11, 2020 | 11:08 2 The problem with GDP as a measure of economic growth is that it simply tallies up all the spending going on in the economy, with no regard as to whether it is useful or not. By useful, I mean investment on plant and equipment that increases the division of labor. Much of the reason for current GDP growth is simply because governments of all stripes are on an unprecedented borrowing spree. Most of the borrowing, however, will be spent on the equivalent of paying some people to dig holes and other people to fill them in. Reply With Quote

  • Aug 11, 2020 | 12:27 3 I hear you AE, but until we have agreement on some new system tio measure output, this is the gold standard.

    I suspect a pretty good rally in the S&P and rebound of the USD is in store. Reply With Quote
    Aug 11, 2020 | 19:55 4 Bloodbath in precious metals today. Gold back down to $1,800? Nasty margin calls triggering ‘git me out now’ selling today. USD appears oversold.

    Rout like this will shake the gold bulls for a spell. Classic commodity washout . . . . Reply With Quote
    ajl
    Aug 11, 2020 | 20:01 5 What is that the 437 or 856th time the US bears have been wrong Jazz? Gotta be the longest broken record playing ever. Just hope they don't screw it up in November. I was in that camp at one time as well but did smarten up in time. Reply With Quote
    Aug 11, 2020 | 21:08 6
    Quote Originally Posted by Austrian Economics View Post
    The problem with GDP as a measure of economic growth is that it simply tallies up all the spending going on in the economy, with no regard as to whether it is useful or not. By useful, I mean investment on plant and equipment that increases the division of labor. Much of the reason for current GDP growth is simply because governments of all stripes are on an unprecedented borrowing spree. Most of the borrowing, however, will be spent on the equivalent of paying some people to dig holes and other people to fill them in.


    Yes, it measures dollars, not goods, devalue the home currency and voila, GDP is up, doesn't matter the country, they all measure the same. So if goods are static but currency devalues, it appears "something" is happening. I refuse to bet against the US till there's a new high in their dollar or at very least a second attempt at 160. They can't measure inflation/ deflation ..... the models are broken,people so my best bet is FED over does it. We are in for a real rodeo of up and down in everything and it'll get extreme. See the metals. I thought sub $1200 was still in play but that might be 1362~ wait and see. Need to raise the entry point. Reply With Quote
    Aug 11, 2020 | 21:46 7
    Quote Originally Posted by macdon02 View Post
    See the metals. I thought sub $1200 was still in play but that might be 1362~ wait and see. Need to raise the entry point.
    OI! I'll wait and see if 1760 holds first Reply With Quote
    Aug 11, 2020 | 21:54 8
    Quote Originally Posted by farming101 View Post
    OI! I'll wait and see if 1760 holds first
    It's left "gaps" at 680, 800~, 1197, 1362, there's all sorts of targets needing filling. But nothing says they gotta fill on the way up, cam happen on the way down. I merely ratcheted up my possibilities, the top is opening as well. It's nasty how far it can go. Reply With Quote
    biglentil's Avatar Aug 11, 2020 | 22:37 9 Get ready for a nasty 2008 style market correction. The commercial banks have it all tee'd up they've been loading up on bonds for some time. They've been tightening credit standards to near all time levels. Without credit real estate and the general market will crater. They want to implode the market. You may say well why do they want to do that? They know the feds hand ahead of time. The fed will slash rates causing the banks bonds to go up in value significantly, debtors will be bailed out. Gold tanks near term but the Fed's quick response of 0% interest rates and QE5 will drive it right back up. The USD will rally while the market is near an all time net short. Its all set up just like the pre 2008 financial crisis. Reply With Quote
    Aug 12, 2020 | 01:17 10
    Quote Originally Posted by biglentil View Post
    Get ready for a nasty 2008 style market correction. The commercial banks have it all tee'd up they've been loading up on bonds for some time. They've been tightening credit standards to near all time levels. Without credit real estate and the general market will crater. They want to implode the market. You may say well why do they want to do that? They know the feds hand ahead of time. The fed will slash rates causing the banks bonds to go up in value significantly, debtors will be bailed out. Gold tanks near term but the Fed's quick response of 0% interest rates and QE5 will drive it right back up. The USD will rally while the market is near an all time net short. Its all set up just like the pre 2008 financial crisis.
    biglentil, you are right on-the-money . . . .

    A money printing rally in a failing economy just doesn’t cut it. Precious metals may become extremely unpredictable. Rallies, followed by disapointnent. No real inflationary undertone except fake money-printing that already has an expired shelflife for any extended impact. Reply With Quote
    Aug 12, 2020 | 05:19 11 Errol how much and what is the effect of companies doing massive buy backs? Less stocks available due to the buy backs have raised rhe stock price but in reality doesn’t this make the stock market value raises a fake? There isn’t actually any more value in these companies as the stock market raises have eluded to. Just less shares at a higher price. Reply With Quote
    Aug 12, 2020 | 07:06 12
    Quote Originally Posted by the big wheel View Post
    Errol how much and what is the effect of companies doing massive buy backs? Less stocks available due to the buy backs have raised rhe stock price but in reality doesn’t this make the stock market value raises a fake? There isn’t actually any more value in these companies as the stock market raises have eluded to. Just less shares at a higher price.
    Stock buybacks on Wall Street almost totally supported the U.S. stock market over the past few years . . . especially since 2016 (IMO). Meanwhile on Main Street, participants have dwindled. Fake you say? . . . you betcha . . . now unlimited money printing. This field is not designed to be level.

    Gold prices have been crushed more than $200 per oz in the past 18 hours with the spot breaking below $1.865 per oz overnight. This is a margin call washout forcing long liquidation. Futures are extremely dangerous. Stick to options, if sticking-a-toe in precious metals. Reply With Quote
    Aug 12, 2020 | 08:28 13 Guys, you are looking at this wrong. Whatever your throughts on our financial system, it doesnt really make sense to go against it.

    I imagine some $20T was printed up over the world and went right into markets and supporting people. Thats inflationary and will land somewhere in regular assets eventually. The stock market is already seeing it. The US GDP is jsut starting its recovery and the S&P is at pre pandemic levels. In a years time that index will be 5,000.

    I understand the allure of gold but if our system was reset against it and it jumped to $15k an oz or something, we would be in a secular depression. Are you going to risk taking your gold wafers into town to barter?

    Farmland is 10x the hedge that gold is and already there are accelerating sales all around me. Sub 2% interest rates with a huge dose of inflation tells me all these are going up, probably even commodities this time. Reply With Quote
    biglentil's Avatar Aug 12, 2020 | 09:21 14 https://youtu.be/oWOiryI_1ns

    Fast forward to the 14 minute mark and watch. The commercial banks control the liquidity in the system not the fed. They have the bowling pins all set up and they can throw a guaranteed strike by tightening lending standards to all time highs. Reply With Quote
    biglentil's Avatar Aug 12, 2020 | 10:01 15 Banks are going to need to pull it off quick. Before the feds policy change to run inflation 🔥 next month. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/the-fed-is-setting-the-stage-for-a-major-policy-change-1.1466900

    In a world of unsound money... Reply With Quote
    Aug 12, 2020 | 23:07 16 Why would banks want to crash the market? Doesn’t make sense.

    Not much room for feds to lower rates Further. Just going massive money printing and buying stocks Reply With Quote

  • Aug 13, 2020 | 08:20 17 Gold still a buy if you got in at the right place and don't mind the recent haircut Reply With Quote
    biglentil's Avatar Aug 15, 2020 | 01:42 18 Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has taken a 20.9M share position in Barrick Gold, according to the most recently filed 13F.*https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1067983/000095012320009058/xslForm13F_X01/960.xml. The stock is up 7% after market on the news.

    Will be interesting to see what this will do to the sector as a whole.

    “Gold gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or some place. The we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head.” — Warren Buffett Reply With Quote