Low grain stocks on July 31.

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Low grain stocks on July 31.

ajl
Aug 3, 2020 | 10:20 1 Apparently you don't want to get marketing advice from a grain company. We were told last fall and winter that the crop was huge and stocks would be overwhelming. A cargill rep even predicted a 7 million MT canola carry over back in Feb. Apparently the crop was not near as big as they or stats can said it was. I have 6 MT of spring thrash canola looking for a home. All spring thrash canola this year hauled so far graded #1 at elevator with no deer crap found. Is 10.70 enough? Well rest assured a big crop is on its way.
Last edited by ajl; Aug 3, 2020 at 10:25.
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  • Aug 3, 2020 | 11:12 2
    Quote Originally Posted by ajl View Post
    Apparently you don't want to get marketing advice from a grain company. We were told last fall and winter that the crop was huge and stocks would be overwhelming. A cargill rep even predicted a 7 million MT canola carry over back in Feb. Apparently the crop was not near as big as they or stats can said it was. I have 6 MT of spring thrash canola looking for a home. All spring thrash canola this year hauled so far graded #1 at elevator with no deer crap found. Is 10.70 enough? Well rest assured a big crop is on its way.
    I never sell a bushel off the combine. I use that CCGA advance to bridge myself into the new yr until the real numbers are reported. There is no big crop coming off in any class this year that I see.

    I sold an entire super B of 50% grey looking canola thrashed this spring. Got $5 for it in picture butte. Never even though about taking it by the terminal. Dad secretly stuck 300 bushels in an old truck and hauled it in for $10 the other day. Reply With Quote
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  • Aug 3, 2020 | 11:13 3 I really wonder about all that canola that is laying around. Local Richardson has been trying to fill train load all July. They started with a .23 premium then .28 then .34 cent. I sold them some on each of the steps up and as soon as i would sell they wanted it hauled. Even wanted you to haul Saturday. There wasn't a lot of other trucks hauling and over a three week stretch i never really waited in line. Reply With Quote
    Aug 3, 2020 | 11:19 4 I shopped my durum around a bit in dec january and it all came back 17% sprouted after the microscope was put on it. #5 or possibly worse. I decided to wait.

    Magically the same sample had 7% sprouted in June and went #3.

    Same thing as my lentils. There was some durum in the fields that got thrashed out with the lentils, maybe 2%, graded sample in MJ. Hung on to it, made a 2 at AGT this past month and didnt bat an eye at the durum in it.

    Selling late Q2 in the year after harvest has been a windfall for my marketing. I don't mess with futures or hedging or any BS like that, just prepare to store it 9 months.
    Last edited by jazz; Aug 3, 2020 at 11:24.
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  • Aug 3, 2020 | 12:20 5
    Quote Originally Posted by ajl View Post
    Apparently you don't want to get marketing advice from a grain company. We were told last fall and winter that the crop was huge and stocks would be overwhelming. A cargill rep even predicted a 7 million MT canola carry over back in Feb. Apparently the crop was not near as big as they or stats can said it was. I have 6 MT of spring thrash canola looking for a home. All spring thrash canola this year hauled so far graded #1 at elevator with no deer crap found. Is 10.70 enough? Well rest assured a big crop is on its way.
    Many of us called b/s on this big carry over a long time ago
    Bins are empty in this neck of the woods and so are elevators for the most part and it the first week of August .
    There was never going to be a huge carry over , they lie just like politicians Reply With Quote

  • Aug 3, 2020 | 12:48 6 Sure wold be nice to have sales reporting throughout the year and then with a Walmart calculator a guy could keep track instead of waiting until the grain cos announce low stocks....

    Their hand has been played..... Reply With Quote

  • blackpowder's Avatar Aug 3, 2020 | 14:07 7 Gee, no one pays the $7500 fee for advice from that same afore mentioned rep???
    Bins will earn some carry on canola for a while this year. Not necessarily bullish, just looking even out to Jan for now.
    Wheat the new cash crop here.
    Last edited by blackpowder; Aug 3, 2020 at 14:10.
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    SASKFARMER's Avatar Aug 3, 2020 | 14:34 8 It was a total lie. Total Bullshit.

    Grain companies enjoyed the shit show and made money.

    Canadian farmers got ****ed again Reply With Quote
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  • Aug 3, 2020 | 15:01 9 2 years to adjust numbers at statscan is bullshit. ..they shouldn't be given 2 weeks...it's 2020 after all.


    It took less than a month to hand out CERB with data compiled from government agencies and the banks....

    WTF is so hard about a simple plus minus of grain stocks at the end of every week....at the end of November the stocks should be known and it's all minus until August.... Reply With Quote
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  • Aug 3, 2020 | 17:43 10 I have been hauling into 2 different elevators lately. Have been picking off targets well above the market for immediate delivery. And the elevators are slow, as in 5 trucks total in one day, I showed up at noon and I was the first one there for the day. Yet prices here are the highest they have been for 18 months at least.

    Is everyone holding out for higher prices, after holding this long? Or are the bins all empty? Reply With Quote
    Aug 3, 2020 | 18:22 11 I make the assumption you are from Alberta so I can see that is a quick haul for the railways and graincos logistics with G3's new port facility needing to be fed..... Reply With Quote
    Aug 3, 2020 | 19:22 12
    Quote Originally Posted by bucket View Post
    I make the assumption you are from Alberta ..
    Darnit, how did you guess, so much for anonymity on a public forum, now that you gave away my location, I'm afraid Chuck might stalk me. Reply With Quote
    Aug 3, 2020 | 19:28 13
    Quote Originally Posted by AlbertaFarmer5 View Post
    Darnit, how did you guess, so much for anonymity on a public forum, now that you gave away my location, I'm afraid Chuck might stalk me.
    I am slowly learning not to take things for granted. Some things are not always as they appear....for all I know you could be a land baron with roots in Saskatchewan...

    And I don't have time to stalk you...now back to the matter at hand ....it seems someone hasn't been keeping the industry abreast of the export pace which I think is a disservice to farmers considering the weekly crop reports they give during the growing season. Reply With Quote
    blackpowder's Avatar Aug 3, 2020 | 21:20 14 Local terminal here has been pounding the wheat out. Crusher here crying for canola. Reply With Quote
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  • Aug 3, 2020 | 21:47 15 My bins rattle in the wind. Only have some low grade mustard as carry-over. You keep it long enough and a marketing year sometimes shows up where grade "almost" doesn't matter. Not all mustard is sold in nice little spice jars or small celephane bags with the clear windows in them to see all the pretty little whole seeds. There's a few other uses that "appearance" doesn't matter. Reply With Quote
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  • Aug 3, 2020 | 23:04 16
    Quote Originally Posted by blackpowder View Post
    Local terminal here has been pounding the wheat out. Crusher here crying for canola.
    I have a target for 1-13.0 hard red wheat well above the market, and they don't seem to want it yet. Time will tell I guess. Reply With Quote
    Aug 4, 2020 | 16:21 17 CBOT September wht down A$7.93/t & Dec down A$7.96. Corn not helping with fall to lowest prices since late June. US seen as struggling to make export sales in a global market where wheat supplies are plentiful. Spring wht & HRW wht both made new contract lows.


    Hope whea5 market isn’t a downward elevator yet to hit ground floor
    Been wondering if wheat would seriously correct Reply With Quote
    Partners's Avatar Aug 4, 2020 | 17:33 18 Local viterra at $4.84 for number 2.12.5...for sept..
    Must be to much wheat yet..?? Reply With Quote
    Aug 4, 2020 | 18:37 19 Add in this ....
    https://www.silverdoctors.com/headlines/world-news/china-buying-up-american-corn-due-to-flooding-creating-food-shortage-crisis/

    Which again has been known for way over a month after their first round of flooding Reply With Quote
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  • Aug 5, 2020 | 00:01 20 https://www.breitbart.com/national-s...ws-moldy-corn/

    "Responding to the increased prices, China has boosted its corn purchases from the U.S. Last week, Beijing inked a deal for 1.937 million tons of U.S. corn, China’s single largest purchase of U.S. corn ever. Confirming the purchase on July 30, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said it “topped the previous biggest deal to China of 1.762 million tons, reported just two weeks ago,” and was the “the third-largest deal for corn to any destination on record.”" Reply With Quote