Seasonal/Counter seasonal Canola prices

[farming101]

2020 is running counter seasonal so far.
Likely the late harvest and the Covid-19 disruption sent prices lower early in the year and we have missed the usual spring/early summer 6-7% bump higher

Seasonal charts have a starting point (in this case wk 1 of the calendar year) and then track percentage change from there.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Thanks for posting. Have you looked for any analagous years?

Looks like if you shifted the 2020 chart a few weeks they would line right up.

[bucket]

A dumb question....does this mean higher prices will hit during harvest?

[furrowtickler]

A dumb question....does this mean higher prices will hit during harvest?

Was just wondering the exact same thing
I think it’s possible for early September
The majority of the canola crop in the traditional canola growing area is 2 weeks behind and nothing but coolish temps in forecast.
And no , the bins are not full . The last train last week could not get full locally . There is some left but not a lot and it’s in tight hands now

[farmaholic]

The 2020 line might be lagging twelve weeks and like bucket says, put the trajectory for the price peak at harvest. My answer is, no way will prices peak in harvest. Probably just lost potential this year.

I wonder how much canola is still on farm. Our Nexera contract was picked up in spurts well in advance of the contracted delivery date.

Commodity canola prices a bit higher in "specials", probably need to fill a sale or train at those times.

[farming101]

Looking back at past years with a pattern similar to what 2020 has done so far:
There is no rule. Some years have finished higher and some lower.
Likely there is a very slight bias to the year finishing lower than it started.

As far as rallying into harvest season, it doesn't happen very much in other years with the 2020 pattern.
2010 has a very similar pattern with a rally into harvest.
2019 had a very mild rally into harvest but finished the year weaker than it started, so not really comparable