GDD and Crop Staging

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GDD and Crop Staging

helmsdale's Avatar Jul 13, 2020 | 10:55 1 Neighbor was over the other day and his daughter got married last year the last weekend in June. Got married on the farm with crop in the background for wedding photos. They were just looking through them and the wheat was just heading. It's the 13th of July, and we're at about the same stage now as we were last year. We're pushing 2 weeks behind!

I was going on peas the first week of August last year. There is NO WAY that is going to happen this year. If we're going the 3rd week of August that'll be about the soonest. July has been COLD! Next two weeks look to be below normal on the temperature side as well.

GDD (base 5*) - May 1 to yesterday: here i made 600 as of yesterday, but long term normal is about 675.

The crop certainly shows it. Durum isnt fully headed, and it was seeded late april. Wheat seeded beginning of may is about 25% headed. Peas are still highly vegetative, blooming, and just filling bottom pods.

What are other guys seeing?

Seen an article here the other day as well saying that NOAA has issued a "La Nina Watch". 50-55% chance of La Nina forming in the fall and lasting throughout the winter months. Also looking at NOAA seasonal outlooks for fall are certainly not looking conducive to a prolonged harvest season... It has to be a tragic train wreck for guys in this particular area not to get harvest off, but if we're behind schedule, Im hazarding a guess that areas further west and north are also behind? It's still pretty early to call, but what are guys feelings on whether this crop makes it to the bin this calendar year?

https://www.climate.gov/news-feature...i%C3%B1a-watch
Last edited by helmsdale; Jul 13, 2020 at 11:04.
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helmsdale's Avatar Jul 13, 2020 | 11:00 2 Name:  noaa seasonal precip.jpg
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Jul 13, 2020 | 11:03 3 It’s the same over the vast majority of western Canada , GDD is way down for May , June and now the first half of July . Lack of Sunspots tell the tail .
Areas north of here now have a slime chance of getting some crops to maturity before frost
Some will need a miracle . Reply With Quote
helmsdale's Avatar Jul 13, 2020 | 11:04 4 Name:  jas ec temp june 30.jpg
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helmsdale's Avatar Jul 13, 2020 | 11:08 5 Name:  gdd base 0.jpg
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If you take the base GDD 0* its not much better.

Sitting at 975, should be 1050 Reply With Quote
helmsdale's Avatar Jul 13, 2020 | 11:10 6
Quote Originally Posted by furrowtickler View Post
It’s the same over the vast majority of western Canada , GDD is way down for May , June and now the first half of July . Lack of Sunspots tell the tail .
Areas north of here now have a slime chance of getting some crops to maturity before frost
Some will need a miracle .
Kind of what I'm seeing anecdotally as well. Neighbors in laws are around Mundare and they are still trying to spray herbicide in crop... Its the middle of July... Reply With Quote
Jul 13, 2020 | 11:46 7 A week behind for our area maybe? Some cereals just heading, canola just starting to get a bit yellow. But lots of cereals barely shot blade, lots of canola just starting to bolt. Peas just showing a few blossoms. Everything is tall, everything is thick.

If it stops raining, chance of a whopper around here. Hay and pasture kicked it up a notch with the near daily rains.

Always a fight to get to maturity in this area though, so nothing new at all. Red river valley moisture with Iqaluit heat units in this area makes it tough! Reply With Quote
blackpowder's Avatar Jul 13, 2020 | 11:58 8 I've covered fairly large area looking at machinery this summer.
I concur on all crops. 1-2 weeks. Most look quite good from road however. Reply With Quote
biglentil's Avatar Jul 13, 2020 | 14:05 9 Durum is turning and will be combining in road gear in 3 weeks. Reply With Quote
helmsdale's Avatar Jul 13, 2020 | 14:57 10
Quote Originally Posted by biglentil View Post
Durum is turning and will be combining in road gear in 3 weeks.
Father in Law is 30ish miles away as the crow flies. Durum headed out at less than knee height with top third of the head already burnt out. Recent rains should likely plump up whats there, but his heavy gumbo has exhausted all the moisture reserves, so perhaps it wont last very long and he'll be in the same boat. Lots of Canola crops in his neighborhood that aren't going to make expenses... Reply With Quote
Jul 13, 2020 | 16:20 11 I would say about 2 weeks behind here. Canola just starting to flower and the odd wheat head starting to emerge. Have seen a few cutter bee farmers just taking bees out now when normal would be on or before July 1. Almost daily rain showers and temp is 16 degrees right now has me looking for a Jacket. It used to be we would try and keep the house cool by opening the windows at night and closing them in the morning and closing all the blinds to keep the sun out. Now its opposite getting the sun in to warm the house. Reply With Quote
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  • Jul 13, 2020 | 20:06 12 Even there are sun dogs and they are usually a winter feature! Reply With Quote
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  • Jul 13, 2020 | 21:32 13
    Quote Originally Posted by seldomseen View Post
    I would say about 2 weeks behind here. Canola just starting to flower and the odd wheat head starting to emerge. Have seen a few cutter bee farmers just taking bees out now when normal would be on or before July 1. Almost daily rain showers and temp is 16 degrees right now has me looking for a Jacket. It used to be we would try and keep the house cool by opening the windows at night and closing them in the morning and closing all the blinds to keep the sun out. Now its opposite getting the sun in to warm the house.
    Furnace kicked in the other morning. I be like, this is July already. One odd year this year... Reply With Quote
    Jul 13, 2020 | 21:43 14 Cool tonight again Reply With Quote
    Jul 14, 2020 | 07:54 15 Good morning all.


    My son and I did a crop tour yesterday, and right now our peas are podded , but still have blooms on them, triticale is in soft dough stage ( also was seeded first week in May), durum wheat is headed and not far behind that. As far as growing degree days down here in the SW corner, we have plenty of them as wind and 85 degrees for a few days speeds everything up for maturity. Having some timely rains and a cooler July (so far ) is what is saving this crops ass down here!

    95% of my hay crop is cut and baled ,and is about 1/3 of what I get on a good year. Gee I can't wait to buy some , or else I am going to put up more green feed to compensate. Aaahhh , learning to do more with less seems to be a farmers motto. Thanks god my parents taught me how to do this , because there are a lot of farmers in this area who spend $ like they live in Manitoba , and don't harvest Manitoba style crops. Reply With Quote
    Jul 14, 2020 | 09:47 16
    Quote Originally Posted by GALAXIE500 View Post
    Good morning all.


    My son and I did a crop tour yesterday, and right now our peas are podded , but still have blooms on them, triticale is in soft dough stage ( also was seeded first week in May), durum wheat is headed and not far behind that. As far as growing degree days down here in the SW corner, we have plenty of them as wind and 85 degrees for a few days speeds everything up for maturity. Having some timely rains and a cooler July (so far ) is what is saving this crops ass down here!

    95% of my hay crop is cut and baled ,and is about 1/3 of what I get on a good year. Gee I can't wait to buy some , or else I am going to put up more green feed to compensate. Aaahhh , learning to do more with less seems to be a farmers motto. Thanks god my parents taught me how to do this , because there are a lot of farmers in this area who spend $ like they live in Manitoba , and don't harvest Manitoba style crops.
    Ya going through some very tough years between droughts , early frosts and hail has took us down the same path
    Many retailers here have guys spending a fortune on their crops . Extremely risky here too Reply With Quote
    Jul 16, 2020 | 08:17 17 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) just officially issued a La Niña Watch.

    https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca...-la-nina-watch Reply With Quote