November Canola

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November Canola

Jul 18, 2020 | 08:33 31 Farmaholic, do you have a 13bpa ACT Of God contract with your specialty canola? (I believe that’s what Nexera is but unsure about Cargill program)

The November futures hit $500 for about 2 days in the winter, hopefully it gets back there. Reply With Quote
Jul 18, 2020 | 08:45 32
Quote Originally Posted by Oliver88 View Post
Farmaholic, do you have a 13bpa ACT Of God contract with your specialty canola? (I believe that’s what Nexera is but unsure about Cargill program)

The November futures hit $500 for about 2 days in the winter, hopefully it gets back there.
The basis is 100% AOG and they are committing to all the production. But as soon as I price any the priced portion has no AOG. Reply With Quote
Jul 20, 2020 | 08:09 33 Canola up slightly this morning again, over 486. Reply With Quote
Jul 20, 2020 | 10:03 34 $490 next or free fall? Reply With Quote
Jul 20, 2020 | 21:45 35 Right or wrong I sold the last half of my canola today, what bugs me is why canola seems to be showing it’s own strength the last couple of weeks and what is driving soyoil? Are acres down on canola or are we crushing and exporting more canola than usual?
Last edited by Sodbuster; Jul 20, 2020 at 21:52.
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Jul 20, 2020 | 22:06 36 After pre-pricing some new crop off July 2021 last week, I have to sit tight now and wait til it looks like I can put some in the bin first.

Can't imagine there is alot of canola left on farm. Gotta wonder what Trash-Can has figured out. Remember how bad harvest was last fall and all the canola that was spring thrashed. Got to wonder what carry-over will be going into 2020-21 crop year.

Market Pundits? Reply With Quote
Jul 20, 2020 | 22:11 37
Quote Originally Posted by Oliver88 View Post
Farmaholic, do you have a 13bpa ACT Of God contract with your specialty canola? (I believe that’s what Nexera is but unsure about Cargill program)

The November futures hit $500 for about 2 days in the winter, hopefully it gets back there.
bunge nexera has 10 bpa you can price with AOG
richardson had $10.50 for canola today immediate delivery Reply With Quote
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  • Jul 20, 2020 | 22:48 38 Palm is driving soy is driving canola.
    Talk of steady business to Europe. Europe canola imports from Canada really took off in 2019.

    November may back off here. Staying above 476 or so could set up another chance for a bit higher prices.
    Did some old crop 15.50 under Nov for August del. picked up.
    Last edited by farming101; Jul 20, 2020 at 22:51.
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  • Jul 29, 2020 | 11:48 39 November finally broke $490 Reply With Quote
    Jul 29, 2020 | 12:21 40
    Quote Originally Posted by Oliver88 View Post
    November finally broke $490
    Of course it did. I emptied the bins last week. Reply With Quote
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  • Jul 29, 2020 | 13:28 41 A little bit of what's going on. Mallee posted about it in the US wheat thread.
    That's 1238.90 USD for September(I think) delivery. The high price of the day.
    1656.06 CAD.
    May shipments of crude Canola oil to China from Canada were 983.86 CAD Vancouver
    Looks like some good business to be done for someone.

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    Jul 29, 2020 | 13:30 42 Very strong price action today. Volume wasn't fantastic though, so still caution needed.

    I would be looking at Errol's suggestion of Jan puts Reply With Quote
    Jul 29, 2020 | 16:44 43 Domestically here canola not used to much in feed rations but some is needed.

    See local mill is $670 delivered.

    Guessing they only need a 2 or 3 hundred tonne but must be short in supply that’s good coin Reply With Quote
    Jul 29, 2020 | 17:53 44 I wouldnt be tempted by that Nov contract. The canola crop is going to come in short this yr. Too much moisture in some areas, lacking moisture in others and now flower blasting and lygus bugs having a field day. Reply With Quote
    Jul 29, 2020 | 20:05 45
    Quote Originally Posted by farming101 View Post
    Very strong price action today. Volume wasn't fantastic though, so still caution needed.

    I would be looking at Errol's suggestion of Jan puts
    Can you of Errol elaborate on January puts?
    Future price is approaching $500. Reply With Quote
    Jul 29, 2020 | 21:39 46
    Quote Originally Posted by Oliver88 View Post
    Can you of Errol elaborate on January puts?
    Future price is approaching $500.
    Oliver . . . we bought Jan 500 (in-the-money) puts for $15.80/ MT today. Jan strike $500 - put premium (say $16/mt) for easy math = $484/MT ($11/bu) - your fall delivered basis. Advantage of Jan is it expires around Xmas. This allows the grower to watch for a narrower post harvest basis. Also, no production or delivery obligation. Pure ol insurance that the grower can manage without risk of cash contract payout penalty.

    Note: Given the strong close today, these options may be cheaper tomorrow. But don’t nickel and dime this market as canola could suddenly drop once current sales are covered.

    Puts are an added tool for a producer’s marketing toolbox. Part of a risk management plan. Hope this is useful. Reply With Quote
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