Don't Count on The Herd

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Don't Count on The Herd

Jul 7, 2020 | 12:23 1 Latest study of 60000 recovered COVD-19 victims shows immunity may only last weeks. Absent of a miracle vaccine , sanitation may be the only course of action. Contact tracing and preventative measures may be the only hope. Of course it is just the flu. Reply With Quote
Jul 7, 2020 | 12:44 2 Driving the death rate to around 0.013%. Sounds like herd immunity to me.

Unless you think an evolutionary process that has worked for billions of years isnt going to work this time. Have any scientific evidence to back that up? Thats a pretty big claim. Cause it happened in the other 3 recent corona strain related viruses, pig flu, SARS, MERS.

I suspect the herd immunity will kick in fully about Nov 4th or so. Reply With Quote
ajl
Jul 7, 2020 | 13:10 3
Quote Originally Posted by jazz View Post

I suspect the herd immunity will kick in fully about Nov 4th or so.
At least using Covid as a political football will die down then. After which we can get a handle on actual infection rates and outcomes. Until then, doubt pretty much everything being reported, especially new case numbers in Florida. Reply With Quote
Jul 7, 2020 | 13:20 4
Quote Originally Posted by ajl View Post
At least using Covid as a political football will die down then. After which we can get a handle on actual infection rates and outcomes. Until then, doubt pretty much everything being reported, especially new case numbers in Florida.
Study reported in the Lancet medical journal with only 5 % of Spanish population showing significant antibodies. Reply With Quote
Blaithin's Avatar Jul 7, 2020 | 13:28 5
Quote Originally Posted by jazz View Post
Driving the death rate to around 0.013%. Sounds like herd immunity to me.

Unless you think an evolutionary process that has worked for billions of years isnt going to work this time. Have any scientific evidence to back that up? Thats a pretty big claim. Cause it happened in the other 3 recent corona strain related viruses, pig flu, SARS, MERS.

I suspect the herd immunity will kick in fully about Nov 4th or so.
But viruses are also trying to get one up in the evolutionary process so you can’t say just because we get immunity to most of them, we always will.

There’s no immunity for HIV. I’m sure there’s others as well. Herpes V1 and V2 don’t have immunity that I know of. Or it isn’t common anyway.

Mortality rate has nothing to do with immunity. Mortality is only based on deaths of those infected. If you can get infected multiple times than your chance of dying also multiplies. Especially if it’s a virus that does lasting damage. Why would you assume the mortality rate would drop in preceding infections, it could just as easily increase.
Last edited by Blaithin; Jul 7, 2020 at 13:40.
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Jul 7, 2020 | 14:54 6
Quote Originally Posted by Blaithin View Post
But viruses are also trying to get one up in the evolutionary process so you can’t say just because we get immunity to most of them, we always will.

There’s no immunity for HIV. I’m sure there’s others as well. Herpes V1 and V2 don’t have immunity that I know of. Or it isn’t common anyway.

Mortality rate has nothing to do with immunity. Mortality is only based on deaths of those infected. If you can get infected multiple times than your chance of dying also multiplies. Especially if it’s a virus that does lasting damage. Why would you assume the mortality rate would drop in preceding infections, it could just as easily increase.
Viruses are not alive, they do not evolve like we do. They co-opt your biological mechanism to replicate. In that process they sometimes mutate and, but usually attenuate and reach balance with the host population.

Immunity and a stalemate against an infection are two different things. Tuberculosis is never clear in people, it just becomes attenuated enough that your body keeps the viral load in check long term. Those people still test positive for the disease for decades and will never be free of it, but are also asymptomatic for that time as well and not infectious. The simian form of AIDS has already reached stalemate in that species and will in ours as well. Reply With Quote
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  • Jul 7, 2020 | 14:55 7 So cute how worried you guys in the sticks are about WuFlu.

    Looking beyond the fact that recent polls say 2/3 Canucks ready to lock down country again is cases go up again.

    As if there isn't going to be a ****ing Depression when this is all done. Movie theaters, hotels, restaurants, tourist camps. Boom. Gone.

    If kids don't go back to school this fall, we might as well start closing them as well. Move it all online.

    Already in Manitoba, schools are deciding which 1/3 of the kids are going to be bused this fall. The rest will have to be dropped off each day by parents. Parents are pissed. Reply With Quote
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  • Jul 7, 2020 | 15:15 8 Jazz , did you have trouble with math
    In school.
    Based on the US right now.
    Confirmed vs dead. It is running at
    1.05 % not .013 % as you claim.
    And that would assume that none
    Of the 6 million not recovered will die
    From it.
    Donnie said 40 million tests have been
    done ,10 million confirmed.
    You are only out by a factor of 10
    If no one else dies.
    With your # s if every US citizen had
    Contracted it , 320 million x .013 percent
    = 41,600 deaths.
    And now running at 130,000 already .
    Back to remedial math for you. Reply With Quote
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  • Blaithin's Avatar Jul 7, 2020 | 15:24 9
    Quote Originally Posted by jazz View Post
    Viruses are not alive, they do not evolve like we do. They co-opt your biological mechanism to replicate. In that process they sometimes mutate and, but usually attenuate and reach balance with the host population.

    Immunity and a stalemate against an infection are two different things. Tuberculosis is never clear in people, it just becomes attenuated enough that your body keeps the viral load in check long term. Those people still test positive for the disease for decades and will never be free of it, but are also asymptomatic for that time as well and not infectious. The simian form of AIDS has already reached stalemate in that species and will in ours as well.
    So if something doesn’t evolve as we do, it doesn’t evolve?

    Oh dear.

    Viruses carry genetic information, they reproduce and they are subject to natural selection, just as any other organism that evolves. Whether you call it evolution or mutation is rather irrelevant. A virus has one goal and that is to reproduce. In order to successfully reproduce, they must find new hosts. If a host develops antigens that inhibit the virus’ survival and reproduction that does not mean the virus dies off existence. If a mutation occurs that allows it to bypass antigens in some way so that it can once again survive and reproduce, then that mutation is going to most likely be highly successful. This is the process of evolution.

    The fact that you can’t think of viruses that have managed this evolution does not mean they can’t. Reply With Quote
    Jul 7, 2020 | 16:14 10
    Quote Originally Posted by sawfly1 View Post
    Jazz , did you have trouble with math
    In school.
    I was off one decimal place 0.13%, half of the number Stanford published at the height of the pandemic in April. Take it up with them.

    Death rate is still dropping no matter what the msm tells you. There are 8-10 times the undetected infections out there because this was active in the population months before it was even identified.

    But let's just play devils advocate for a second. What do you propose we do? Lock down again? Say it's just the US you hate and you only want them to lock down and punish trump real good. Do you have any clue what would happen to the world and a country like ours if the number one economy failed? Not thinking. Reply With Quote
    Jul 7, 2020 | 16:22 11
    Quote Originally Posted by Blaithin View Post
    So if something doesn’t evolve as we do, it doesn’t evolve?

    Oh dear.

    Viruses carry genetic information, they reproduce and they are subject to natural selection, just as any other organism that evolves. Whether you call it evolution or mutation is rather irrelevant. A virus has one goal and that is to reproduce. In order to successfully reproduce, they must find new hosts. If a host develops antigens that inhibit the virus’ survival and reproduction that does not mean the virus dies off existence. If a mutation occurs that allows it to bypass antigens in some way so that it can once again survive and reproduce, then that mutation is going to most likely be highly successful. This is the process of evolution.

    The fact that you can’t think of viruses that have managed this evolution does not mean they can’t.
    Viruses do not look for new hosts. They cant do that. They rely on you and I to spread it. And their goal is not to just reproduce and overwhelm their host because that would kill them too which would go against self preservation if they have any.

    Their goal is to achieve stasis with their host. That involves an initial virulent phase which eventually attenuates. The virus actually weakens with mutations. Reply With Quote
    Jul 7, 2020 | 18:11 12 Jazz your math is still wrong.
    Mine too , actually you were out 2
    Decimal places.not 1.
    AGAIN , lets use your new # which
    Is 10 times what you said at first.
    If the entire US population was infected.
    Your % says there would be 416,000 deaths total.
    You are already at 130,000 deaths with
    10 million infected out of 320 million population.
    32 x130,000 is a long way from 400,000.
    And you still don't get it. Reply With Quote
    Jul 7, 2020 | 18:59 13
    Quote Originally Posted by sawfly1 View Post
    Jazz your math is still wrong.
    Mine too , actually you were out 2
    Decimal places.not 1.
    AGAIN , lets use your new # which
    Is 10 times what you said at first.
    If the entire US population was infected.
    Your % says there would be 416,000 deaths total.
    You are already at 130,000 deaths with
    10 million infected out of 320 million population.
    32 x130,000 is a long way from 400,000.
    And you still don't get it.
    10 million infected already? Reply With Quote
    Jul 7, 2020 | 19:36 14
    Quote Originally Posted by sawfly1 View Post
    And you still don't get it.
    Sawfly, covid and covid related. Big difference in the death totals. Semantics matter. Reply With Quote
    Jul 7, 2020 | 19:49 15 This is interesting and seems to be relevant


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    biglentil's Avatar Jul 7, 2020 | 19:53 16
    Last edited by biglentil; Jul 7, 2020 at 20:03.
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    Jul 7, 2020 | 20:04 17 Sorry too many numbers , where I got
    10 million infected.
    So 3 times worse yet Reply With Quote
    Jul 7, 2020 | 20:21 18 Speaking of math, how do you guys reconcile the US with 4.5% of the world population has 29% of the worlds cases and 23% of the deaths. Because CNN says so?

    Funny how that little virus just ignored the laws of physics and skipped over africa and india forgot about a 2nd wave in china and just went where trump was. Even better its going to 3 critical swing states, TX,AZ and FL. Amazing coincidence. Reply With Quote

  • Jul 7, 2020 | 20:54 19 Either way..... this thing is going to have to run it's course.

    Which means more dead people.

    I guess it's only catastrophic if someone in your life who you dearly love dies.

    Everyone else and people you don't know are indespensible. NIMBY. ......even if they had an underlying condition but could live years had they not contracted Covid-19.

    Did we have to shut down to prolong the inevitable? I don't know.

    Isn't the first and sure as hell isn't going to be the last pandemic.

    It's what we learn from past and current episodes, and if that knowledge can or can't be applied to the new pandemic is yet to be determined. Reply With Quote
    Jul 7, 2020 | 21:16 20
    Quote Originally Posted by farmaholic View Post

    Isn't the first and sure as hell isn't going to be the last pandemic.

    .
    Well Canada is running more than 100 suicides, homicides and overdoses per day since the lockdown started. That's well above our corona deaths. Should we worry about that? Reply With Quote
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  • Jul 7, 2020 | 21:27 21
    Quote Originally Posted by jazz View Post
    Well Canada is running more than 100 suicides, homicides and overdoses per day since the lockdown started. That's well above our corona deaths. Should we worry about that?
    Oh boy here we go with math again....

    What percentage are due to Covid-19. I can imagine there was an increase in some types of causes of deaths.

    Are some of those supposed to be attributed to Covid-19? ....even if they never contracted the virus? Reply With Quote
    Jul 7, 2020 | 21:46 22
    Quote Originally Posted by farmaholic View Post
    Are some of those supposed to be attributed to Covid-19? ....even if they never contracted the virus?
    I have no idea but there are always unintended consequences for any radical action. We as a society choose to ignore them. Apparently 2/3rd of Canadians want a lock down if cases spike again. They have no idea what they are even asking for. Reply With Quote
    Jul 7, 2020 | 21:52 23
    Quote Originally Posted by jazz View Post
    I have no idea but there are always unintended consequences for any radical action. We as a society choose to ignore them. Apparently 2/3rd of Canadians want a lock down if cases spike again. They have no idea what they are even asking for.
    They're asking for more CERB and other free money..... Reply With Quote

  • Jul 8, 2020 | 00:43 24
    Quote Originally Posted by jazz View Post
    Well Canada is running more than 100 suicides, homicides and overdoses per day since the lockdown started. That's well above our corona deaths. Should we worry about that?
    No, because the 1st and 3rd categories are just taking out the trash.

    Homicides and domestic abuse, yes.


    Now I am sure somebody is gonna have a bleeding asshole from what I just said. Reply With Quote
    Jul 8, 2020 | 00:46 25
    Quote Originally Posted by farmaholic View Post
    They're asking for more CERB and other free money.....
    Exactly. So many people have taken the summer off work, its unreal. Many want to take the rest of the year off. Reply With Quote
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  • Jul 8, 2020 | 06:19 26
    Quote Originally Posted by jazz View Post
    I was off one decimal place 0.13%, half of the number Stanford published at the height of the pandemic in April. Take it up with them.

    Death rate is still dropping no matter what the msm tells you. There are 8-10 times the undetected infections out there because this was active in the population months before it was even identified.

    But let's just play devils advocate for a second. What do you propose we do? Lock down again? Say it's just the US you hate and you only want them to lock down and punish trump real good. Do you have any clue what would happen to the world and a country like ours if the number one economy failed? Not thinking.
    Fact: If the USA goes down , pretty sure this country will go down with it. WHY ? because 75% of our exports go to the USA. Reply With Quote
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  • Jul 8, 2020 | 06:42 27 Speaking of suicides...I know 2 people that have committed suicide over the last 3 months. I know zero people who have contracted the virus. Reply With Quote