US Wheat exports and crop conditions

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US Wheat exports and crop conditions

Jul 6, 2020 | 17:31 1 Is It A Bottom or Just Consolidating

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  • Jul 6, 2020 | 19:41 2 Chicago wheat has got to do better or it's down we go.
    Sept has to break 5.07 for a few days. Even then it is best to look for a selling opportunity all the way up to 5.80 or so if there is a rally. Reply With Quote
    Jul 6, 2020 | 20:26 3 #BlackSea #wheat production may be lower than expected after drier than avg weather. Early yields in Sth #Russia are coming in at 2.5-3MT/ha vs. 3.6MT/ha avg, whilst dryness in June also caused #Ukrainian officials to revise their local wheat production estimate 15% lower YoY. Reply With Quote
    Jul 7, 2020 | 08:56 4 Here's a pretty cool historical MGE Wheat monthly chart;

    https://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/MW/M

    There is a sliding bar at the bottom of the chart that can be moved forward/backward to show a greater or lesser time in history.

    Seems $4.75 is long term support.

    Really sad too see in graphic form, just how much of this chart traded between $4.75 to 5.75USD since 2006.

    Ya, we may have received more in Canadian dollars, but the lower dollar didn't help us buy equipment, fertilizer, chems, seed, parts, etc. Reply With Quote
    Jul 8, 2020 | 02:29 5 The #French #agricultural ministry put out their first 2021 production estimates for soft #wheat at 31.3MMT, compared to 39.5MMT in the 1920 season. This is down 20.8% YoY and is due to sizeable cuts to planted area and yield estimates following unfavorable early season weather. Reply With Quote
    Jul 8, 2020 | 11:06 6 Well, if I live by my self-imposed rules for charting, I have to say we are no longer on the road to negative wheat by Sept 2021. See WTI April 20, 2020.

    Sept Chicago wheat currently 5.12 7/8 Reply With Quote
    Jul 8, 2020 | 11:21 7
    Quote Originally Posted by farming101 View Post
    Well, if I live by my self-imposed rules for charting, I have to say we are no longer on the road to negative wheat by Sept 2021. See WTI April 20, 2020.

    Sept Chicago wheat currently 5.12 7/8
    So, you are optimistic enough to confidently say that $0 might stop the free fall before then? Excellent news. Reply With Quote
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  • Jul 8, 2020 | 11:24 8 Yes, optimism abounds here today.
    This doesn't change the stance that right now any moves higher are selling opportunities. But be patient. There may be more room above. All too early to call...need some confirmation of this baby step Reply With Quote
    Jul 8, 2020 | 16:19 9 CBOT Sep wht up A$9.83/t & Dec up A$9.03. Wht fires up as prodn concerns emerged for Argentina where less wht than thought has been planted. Wht ylds lower than expected in nth Kansas & in Russia. Wht surplus excluding China under pressure. Sharp drop in French export forecasts.

    Wheat should step up to $$275 plus on farm new crop. Doubt many will be foward selling at that.

    More than a few pockets in oz turning dry early days yet plenty of time for upside errr or downside Reply With Quote
    Jul 15, 2020 | 10:01 10 Very positive price advances in Chicago wheat today. See if 5.38 ZWU holds into the close.
    With possibly over 70% of the winter wheat harvest done in the US it is good to see a bit of strength. Reply With Quote
    Jul 15, 2020 | 13:54 11 $5.5075 ! I'd say she held all right !

    What caused the big moves in wheat? that big corn sale ???

    Sept and Dec Minneapolis wheat up $0.09USD Reply With Quote
    helmsdale's Avatar Jul 15, 2020 | 15:16 12
    Quote Originally Posted by AlbertaFarmer5 View Post
    So, you are optimistic enough to confidently say that $0 might stop the free fall before then? Excellent news.
    In this brave new world, even $0.00 doesnt provide a short term floor... Reply With Quote

  • helmsdale's Avatar Jul 15, 2020 | 15:17 13 And on a side note... What the hell is this thread? How did we get derailed and start talking about commodities/ag in general? Reply With Quote

  • Jul 15, 2020 | 16:15 14 Found this , this morning 6.40 am currently

    WASDE:

    The world is awash with wheat with record stocks. However China is holding close to 52% of the global stockpile according to the USDA.

    In all likelihood these stocks will not enter the global market.


    Begs the question Errol macdon02 farming 101 does China actually physically own this wheat or on paper to a degree wheat purchased not received just a deal?

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    Jul 15, 2020 | 16:21 15 CBOT Sept wht up A$21.32/t & Dec up A$9.79. Prices at 2 1/2 mth high after Egypt paid US$8/t more for Russian wht this week compared to last week. This is seen as signalling a rise in global wheat prices. There was also short covering by funds. Reply With Quote
    Jul 16, 2020 | 08:01 16
    Quote Originally Posted by helmsdale View Post
    And on a side note... What the hell is this thread? How did we get derailed and start talking about commodities/ag in general?
    Marketing commodities, gasp!

    p.s. for a few here on agriville, it doesn't interest them in the least, they have other motives. Reply With Quote
    Jul 16, 2020 | 08:05 17 The world is awash with wheat with record stocks. However China is holding close to 52% of the global stockpile according to the USDA.


    And china purchased 2 mmt of wheat from canada last year with farmers finding out after had been offloaded in their ports. Reply With Quote
    Jul 16, 2020 | 18:37 18 September #wheat is down 15.50 USc/bu, as the USDA reported lower than expected export sales of wheat to China, and no mention of the rumored SRW sales. The #AUD is down 0.34c, as the amount of COVID-19 cases in Vic and the rest of the world increases, weighing on risk sentiment. Reply With Quote
    Jul 24, 2020 | 08:34 19 Wheat news from Allendale;

    "The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said that dry weather in central and northern parts of Argentina will likely reduce the amount of wheat planted in the area, and is impacting the development of what is already planted there.

    The International Grains Council cut its global wheat production estimate to 762 million tonnes, a drop of 6 million. The cut came from lower outlooks in the E.U. and Russia."

    other wheat news:

    DJ IGC Cuts Wheat, Corn Production Forecasts
    By Will Horner
    Wheat and corn harvests next year will be slightly lower than expected, the International Grains Council said Thursday, leading it to cut its forecast for total grains production.
    The IGC in its monthly report said the 2020-21 grains harvest is estimated to yield 2.225 billion metric tons, 13 million tons less than the intergovernmental body expected last month.
    The revision is driven by smaller-than-expected wheat and corn harvest, the IGC said. It said global wheat harvests would produce 762 million tons, six million tons less than its previous estimate, and corn harvests would produce 1.164 billion tons, five million tons less than previous estimates.
    Despite the downgrade, the IGC still expects next year’s harvest to be the largest on record and 48 million tons larger than this year’s. The change means the IGC now expects carryover stocks to be 625 million tons next year, 10 million tons less than previous forecasts though still the largest since the 2017-18 season.
    The IGC left its forecast for consumption and trade broadly unchanged.

    WHEAT
    General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were higher on changes in the US Dollar Index. The index fell below 95.00 in the September contract and trends in the index are down. The moves in the index help US grains prices get more competitive overseas. The Winter Wheat harvest is starting to get complete. Spring Wheat was developing under good growing conditions and futures prices closed lower. All markets felt selling pressure from reports of improving yields in Europe and especially Russia. The yields had been poor but have improved as combines have moved into growing areas that developed under better conditions. Yield reports from the central and southern Great Plains have been variable, but generally a little better than expected. Soft Red Winter yields are expected to be high. Australia remains in good condition and is getting beneficial rains.
    Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
    Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 531, 517, and 494 September, with resistance at 540, 552, and 564 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 444, 432, and 430 September, with resistance at 454, 464, and 468 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 513, 510, and 508 September, and resistance is at 518, 520, and 528 September. Reply With Quote

  • Jul 26, 2020 | 04:00 20 Seemingly plenty oF grain about

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    Jul 26, 2020 | 16:26 21 CBOT Sept wht up A$4.98/t & Dec up A$5.24. A delayed reaction to an IGC report last wk that cut prodn estimates for many countries. China may also import more US wht. Two ships were sold to China last wk. US export sales ahead of last yr. EU wht up against a higher euro. Reply With Quote
    Jul 27, 2020 | 04:14 22 Will USDA downgrade as well

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    Jul 29, 2020 | 04:49 23 FYI canola not your or mine

    #Chinese #canola oil futures have rallied signifcantly, currently trading at US$1,236/T due to #supply concerns. In contrast to the drought conditions in NE #China, excessive rain and destructive #floods are hitting Sth China, damaging over 2 million hectares of summer crops. Reply With Quote
    Jul 29, 2020 | 16:46 24 CBOT Sept wht up A$3.38/t & Dec up A$2.85. Some short covering after yesterday’s losses. US spr wht yields may fall short of forecasts. SovEcon reduced their Russian wht forecast by 400kt to 79.3 mill t. Argentine wht area & prodn estimates reduced but still a record 20 mill t. Reply With Quote
    Aug 2, 2020 | 03:47 25 2010 to 2015 51 million tonne
    2016 to 2020 76 million tonne

    So yield improvement is Australia’s whole output or your in western Canada not sure. Mind boggling and they have shitloads more they can bring into production apparently

    Russia will continue to drive world wheat pricing. At present the range of estimates remains quite wide - roughly 5mmt from lowest to highest.

    Even at the low estimate the crop will be still be the second highest on record according to USDA data. Reply With Quote
    Aug 2, 2020 | 06:09 26 Black Sea wheat port export values continue to climb. Believe both Ukraine and Russian wheat moving between $210 to $215/MT FOB port as compared to $192 to $195/MT a year ago.

    U.S. continues to lose large export tenders to the Black Sea. Egypt has been the largest buyer of U.S. wheat, but lost to Black Sea. But stiff fallout in the USD is what the U.S. export market needs badly.

    The ruble is recently recovering against the dollar as is the Cdn dollar. Our loonie might trade in a 75 to 77 cent range into 4th quarter, unless the COVID crisis stateside can be contained (IMO).

    Russian wheat yields ard down about 5 percent after being down 30 percent early in the growing season. Stocks in southern Russia are down as much as 50 per cent year over year according to Sovecon.

    Bottomline . . . There is a lot of wheat globally, but the watch is on the Black Sea and the USD. This could trigger a post harvest recovery in wheat futures. Corn remains in a dowtrend due to massive 180/bu plus average yields, soybeans must receive ongoing China export news or risk fallout, but wheat might have seen the worst. Recovery possible post-harvest . . . . Reply With Quote
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  • Aug 2, 2020 | 06:20 27 Sovecon also reporting that spring wheat production in Siberia and the Urals now estimated @ 11 million MT, down 2 MMT from last year due to drought / high temps this summer. Reply With Quote
    Aug 2, 2020 | 23:22 28
    Quote Originally Posted by malleefarmer View Post
    2010 to 2015 51 million tonne
    2016 to 2020 76 million tonne

    So yield improvement is Australia’s whole output or your in western Canada not sure. Mind boggling and they have shitloads more they can bring into production apparently

    Russia will continue to drive world wheat pricing. At present the range of estimates remains quite wide - roughly 5mmt from lowest to highest.

    Even at the low estimate the crop will be still be the second highest on record according to USDA data.
    I see on tweeter some of these tracts Russia intends to bring back into production again. From what I’ve read about said lands they’re not prime ground. They were farmed before but abandoned when the curtain fell. To me I get the sense soil is marginal, moisture limiting, and growing season is short. More suited to grazing than cropping. There is a real deficit of red meat in Russia and this would be better utilized as cow ground but any scheme to do so in the past had ended in failure. They aren’t stockmen. Reply With Quote
    Aug 3, 2020 | 00:33 29
    Quote Originally Posted by WiltonRanch View Post
    I see on tweeter some of these tracts Russia intends to bring back into production again. From what I’ve read about said lands they’re not prime ground. They were farmed before but abandoned when the curtain fell. To me I get the sense soil is marginal, moisture limiting, and growing season is short. More suited to grazing than cropping. There is a real deficit of red meat in Russia and this would be better utilized as cow ground but any scheme to do so in the past had ended in failure. They aren’t stockmen.
    That is my impression from our travels. The prime farmland is already in production, with not much room left for expansion. Especially in the south.
    Then there are large tracts of what looks to have been farmed at some time , but now doesn't even have livestock on it, and I think you are right, much of it is probably better suited to livestock. There is a big push to bring livestock back, government support, and great local prices, we met one entrepreneur who was importing cattle from Canada to start a herd( by plane).

    I wonder if part of what is holding back expansion is security. Any grain farms, or intensive livestock farms have concrete and razor wire fences around, with armed guards and dogs at the gate. Kind of hard to protect livestock spread over thousands of acres 24/7? Reply With Quote
    Aug 3, 2020 | 09:05 30 Trade Stays Focused on Demand

    https://www.barchart.com/story/futur...used-on-demand

    "early morning commentary for August 3, 2020.

    Grain Marketswere mixed with corn and soybean futures higher on weather outlooks, while wheat futures slid lower on ample global supplies as the Brazilian wheat crop has the potential to be over 7 million tons this year (a record high)."

    "USDA Weekly Crop Progress Reportwill be released this afternoon at 3 p.m. CDT. Trade is expecting corn crop conditions to gain 1% to 73% GTE (72% last week, 67% average). Soybean crop conditions expected to gain 1% to 73% GTE (72% last week, 67% average). Hard red spring wheat is expected to be stable at 70% GTE (70% GTE last week). Hard red spring wheat harvest seen between 9-11% complete (10% average)."

    "U.S. Ag Departmenthas identified more than a dozen plant species ranging from morning glories to mustard in bags of unsolicited seeds arriving in the mailboxes of thousands of Americans, mostly postmarked from China. Another concern is what appears to be an unknown coating, possibly insecticide or fungicide on the seeds, said Robin Pruisner, state seed control official at the Department of Ag and Land Stewardship in Iowa." Reply With Quote