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USDA Corn Acreage Surprise

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    USDA Corn Acreage Surprise

    The USDA's annual final seeded area and June 1st stocks reports were released this morning.

    The most significant number was the final seeded area estimate for corn being only 92 mil ac compared to 97 mil in the March estimate and a survey range of 94 to 96 mil ac.

    That significantly changes how sensitive the corn market and thus the grains overall will be to weather for the remainder of the crop year.

    Using all of the previous USDA figures, such a seeded area would leave a carryover of 2.324 bil bu compared to the June estimate of 3.323 bil. That is using a yield of 178.5 bu/ac. For demonstration purposes, if the yield ends up the same as last years 167.8 bu/ac, the ending stocks will fall to just 1.390 bil bu. That would be the lowest since 2013/14 when prices traded in the $4-5/bu US range. It also shows why the increased sensitivity to weather developments ahead.

    Another factor likely to come into play is the near record net short position of the money managed funds. They are net short 277,479 contracts or 1.387 bil bu (vs a record of -322,215) and they have just been informed their is a much smaller crop than they were trading on. Short covering on their part could result in a short term rally, especially if China does any significant buying for their phase 1 commitments.

    In short, one should expect a short term rally on these developments. Anyone looking to make feed grain sales should monitor the situation closely for signs of it ending.

    #2
    Thanks for the update 👍👍
    Nice to see marketing posts again finally

    Comment


      #3
      Buy the rumour, sell the fact.

      It is very green in corn country.
      Buy some calls if you can't stand being bearish.

      I agree Tech, good for a short term rally but I can't see where this will grow legs and take off

      Comment


        #4
        What happened to missing acres?

        Comment


          #5
          This was a total non surprise. Everybody knew that 97 million acres was pie in the sky. Especially people shorting NTR stock which declined during the spring. If the forecast acres where planted there was no way that fertilizer stocks would decline. The next market surprise will be how small the new crop canola crop is. There is some nice canola but there will be a lot more acres of drowned canola by Thurs morning. Stay tuned and take no sass from canola buyers.

          Comment


            #6
            Are canola acres close to estimates. Looks like it’s down 1 million acres from last year but imagine output will be less given poor conditions in a good chunk of the country. Crops great around here but some are slow and some planted late. More acres not even planted this year. Never see this happen here. Every acre gets seeded but got late for guys getting harvest 19 finished. Thought wasn’t worth another late harvest wreck.

            Comment


              #7
              Devil’s advocate funny ya know when ever there’s a bearish report it’s all guns blazing at usda they don’t know shit from clay, hopeless, conspiracy etc etc put out a bullish report no praise go figure

              Comment


                #8
                Fyi
                [ATTACH]6313[/ATTACH]

                Comment


                  #9
                  Originally posted by malleefarmer View Post
                  Devil’s advocate funny ya know when ever there’s a bearish report it’s all guns blazing at usda they don’t know shit from clay, hopeless, conspiracy etc etc put out a bullish report no praise go figure
                  Lol very true , it’s an interesting dynamic that goes on

                  Comment

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