USA situation virus?

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USA situation virus?

Blaithin's Avatar Jun 28, 2020 | 20:48 31 Darn those experts for not knowing how something unknown would react and affect the world.

Where’s Nostradamus when you need him. Reply With Quote
fjlip's Avatar Jun 28, 2020 | 21:07 32 We didn't start testing for COVID-19 until March, and testing didn't ramp up in earnest until a month or two later in most parts of the country. How many cases already existed when the panic set in during mid-March? According to a peer-reviewed study by Penn State, "the number of early COVID-19 cases in the U.S. may have been more than 80 times greater and doubled nearly twice as fast as originally believed."

The study, which was published in the journal Science Translational Medicine, analyzed influenza-like illnesses (ILI) surveillance data over a three-week period in March 2020. Researchers calculated the likely excess cases that clearly were not the typical flu and estimate that "excess ILI corresponds to more than 8.7 million new cases during the last three weeks of March, compared to the roughly 100,000 cases that were officially reported during the same time period."
This finding is significant for several reasons:
1) Lockdowns missed the boat: By the time we locked down, this virus was already spreading far and wide. The CDC's own research on mitigating the spread of flu indicates that "the effectiveness of pandemic mitigation strategies will erode rapidly as the cumulative illness rate prior to implementation climbs above 1 percent of the population in an affected area." According to the Penn State study, the virus had already hit 4% of the nationwide population and 9% of New York residents. That explains why 66% of those who were hospitalized in New York were people who were already staying at home. Lockdowns were never going to work. According to the study, the overwhelming majority of states were already at more than 1% prevalence.
We know from numerous reports that the virus was already here as early as December. Last week, a study from Italy's National Institute of Health found that the virus was in the wastewater in Milan and Turin as early as December 18. Researchers discovered the virus in 40 samples of wastewater during standard checks of sewage treatment plants in northern Italy. Obviously, the U.S. has more travel to and from China than even Italy, so there's no reason to believe it wasn't here in December as well.

2) Testing metrics are meaningless given the enormous number of those infected with few or no symptoms: Given that there were 87 times more cases than what had been unidentified through testing in March, imagine how many tens of millions have gotten the virus since then? What this study shows is that the virus spreads like the flu, unlike SARS-CoV-1 in 2003, which was rare and deadly. This is the context the media fails to provide when trumpeting more cases in the southern states. Now that we have universal testing in hospitals and anyone can obtain a test anywhere else, we are discovering more of what already was spreading for a while. It's not surprising, now that hospitals are back up to capacity with typical patients, that a large percentage of them are testing positive for the virus, even though they don't have serious cases.

For example, Rhode Island health director Nicole Alexander-Scott said already in May, "We are now identifying more people who are in the hospital with COVID-19 as opposed to just people who are in the hospital because of COVID-19 or for COVID-19-related illnesses. Someone could have a sprained ankle and if they are screened for COVID-19 and their test returns positive … they may be in the hospital with COVID-19. We want to make sure we are capturing that data as well." (Emphasis hers.)
This was not true in March or April. My wife gave birth in a Maryland hospital in early April, at the peak of the virus, and was not tested.

This new study demonstrates that had we implemented universal testing at that period, along with the regular flow of patients, we would have reported exponentially more hospitalizations.
3) It's all about borders and quantity of initial introduction of a virus into a country: How much of the virus was actually introduced into a given region – country or state – likely played a large role in how bad the epidemic was. A new analysis of 500 regions in Europe shows that the areas that had a large spread at the beginning were the ones that fared much worse than those with little prevalence in March. The bottom line is that once a virus is brought in large numbers to a region, the effect of human mitigation is limited until it runs its course.

We see a similar dynamic from this Penn State study. States like Arkansas and Arizona had almost no prevalence in March, according to their research, while New York already had over 9%. California, Texas, and Florida also had much lower prevalence of the virus, even though they are the biggest states. This explains the ultimate death tolls diverging so widely between those states and New York and why those states are experiencing a longer, more drawn-out, yet milder curve, rather than an acute spike and then a precipitous drop as New York and New Jersey had.
Arizona has only become a hot spot after it reintroduced the virus from Mexico with a surge of medical tourism across the border.

While the virus peaked in the U.S. from late March to early April, fatalities in Mexico didn't begin to spike until May, which is when people with proper documentation to enter the U.S. began stampeding toward U.S. hospitals at the border.

Thus, the lesson is that the one thing you can do is prevent the introduction of a virus before it takes off. There's not much to do after it has already started. Yet our government refused to shut off international travel when it matters, but shuts down the lives of citizens when it will no longer help." Reply With Quote
biglentil's Avatar Jun 28, 2020 | 21:45 33
Quote Originally Posted by jazz View Post
BL, think, stop and really think instead of what you feel like is happening.

The CDC model of march showed that a group of unrestained carriers in the US with no lock down and no measures at all would result in 2.2M deaths in a population of 350M by August, just 5 months. Those were the experts right?

Now apply that to the planet for twice as long. A group of carriers sprreading over the entire planet March 2019 to January 2020. That's 9 months of spread in a population of 7B before any lockdowns were even considered. That would have result in more than 100M dead.

You would have thought our experts might have noticed 100M dying people going through the hospital systems of the world.

Deaths are dropping, the recorded mortality rate in the entire population is 0.26% right now as verified by Stanford. More than 98% survival. Lots of things rip through nursing homes. People dying at 85 are not a representative sample of any cause of death in the general population.
US closed cases data

For .26% to be correct that would mean 50 million Americans have already had it, did not get tested, and have since recovered. I call bullshit. And no shit Sherlock an 85 year old dying is not representative of the general population. A nursing home is a canary in coal mine, when the CCP virus gets in one. You'll know it. An obvious marker as to why we know the CCP virus has not infected most of the planet like you claim.
Last edited by biglentil; Jun 28, 2020 at 21:55.
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Jun 28, 2020 | 23:46 34 Diamond Princess 712 cases, 13 deaths

Saskatchewan 778 cases, 13 deaths

there's your ratio, or close to it.

There are so many factors that will dictate a unique outcome for a given jurisdiction. There are no rules.
In Italy it is clear now that the virus got into the elderly population and caused a disproportionate amount of death.
In the US there are many who have health issues that is making the virus so much more deadly. In Canada the virus got into the elderly population in Quebec.

There's over 50,000 people in SK that are 80 years old or older. The virus hasn't infected any great percentage of SK people Reply With Quote
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  • fjlip's Avatar Jun 29, 2020 | 13:34 35 More from CDC...millions had a mild hardly a cold infection


    Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Robert R. Redfield speaks after a White House Coronavirus Task Force briefing at the Department of Health and Human Services on Friday.

    Robert Redfield, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, estimates that there may have been 10 times more COVID-19 cases in the U.S. than the number that is reflected in official statistics, based on the results from antibody studies.


    "The traditional approach of looking for symptomatic illness and diagnoses obviously underestimated the total number of infections," Redfield announced last week, Time reported. "Now that serology tests are available, which test for antibodies, the estimates we have right now show about 10 times more people have antibodies in the jurisdictions tested than had documented infections."

    How did they estimate this? The estimate comes from the results of serology studies from six locations: the western part of Washington state, New York City, south Florida, Connecticut, Missouri, and Utah.
    The surveys found the actual number of cases, based on the number of people in whom they found antibodies, was 11 or 12 times higher in Washington, NYC, south Florida, and Utah. It was 6 times higher in Connecticut and 24 times higher in Missouri.
    Further studies in more locations are being conducted to provide more insight on the true scope of the virus.

    What does this mean? Media reports in recent weeks have focused on increases in the number of new COVID-19 cases. The U.S. currently counts about 2.6 million total COVID-19 cases.
    If the CDC estimate is even close to being accurate, and there have more than 20 million cases, the recent uproar over new positive tests becomes less meaningful, especially if the number of new deaths stays flat or continues to decrease over time even as cases increase

    If there have been 20 million cases in the U.S., then the mortality rate is much lower than previously thought, and millions more people than previously known have contracted the virus and not even gotten sick, let alone had to go to a hospital or faced severe and potentially deadly illness. Reply With Quote
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  • Jun 29, 2020 | 14:29 36
    Quote Originally Posted by fjlip View Post
    More from CDC...millions had a mild hardly a cold infection


    Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Robert R. Redfield speaks after a White House Coronavirus Task Force briefing at the Department of Health and Human Services on Friday.

    Robert Redfield, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, estimates that there may have been 10 times more COVID-19 cases in the U.S. than the number that is reflected in official statistics, based on the results from antibody studies.


    "The traditional approach of looking for symptomatic illness and diagnoses obviously underestimated the total number of infections," Redfield announced last week, Time reported. "Now that serology tests are available, which test for antibodies, the estimates we have right now show about 10 times more people have antibodies in the jurisdictions tested than had documented infections."

    How did they estimate this? The estimate comes from the results of serology studies from six locations: the western part of Washington state, New York City, south Florida, Connecticut, Missouri, and Utah.
    The surveys found the actual number of cases, based on the number of people in whom they found antibodies, was 11 or 12 times higher in Washington, NYC, south Florida, and Utah. It was 6 times higher in Connecticut and 24 times higher in Missouri.
    Further studies in more locations are being conducted to provide more insight on the true scope of the virus.

    What does this mean? Media reports in recent weeks have focused on increases in the number of new COVID-19 cases. The U.S. currently counts about 2.6 million total COVID-19 cases.
    If the CDC estimate is even close to being accurate, and there have more than 20 million cases, the recent uproar over new positive tests becomes less meaningful, especially if the number of new deaths stays flat or continues to decrease over time even as cases increase

    If there have been 20 million cases in the U.S., then the mortality rate is much lower than previously thought, and millions more people than previously known have contracted the virus and not even gotten sick, let alone had to go to a hospital or faced severe and potentially deadly illness.
    Could be, but even these much larger numbers draw one to the conclusion that the majority have yet to be exposed. Reply With Quote
    Jun 30, 2020 | 18:21 37 So now finding that many of those that get this and don’t die do not recover fully in fact other problems linger on.

    What a gamble the USA is playing expecting 100,000 cases a day possibly???

    The only social and financial distancing may be that other countries that are banning travel and looking at trade as well with the USA. Ironically the open may cost more than not. Looks like it anyway.

    We shouldn’t be allowing travel there otherwise we re going to be screwed in a month Reply With Quote
    RTK
    Jun 30, 2020 | 18:43 38 I thought closing borders would not help in fact weren’t we told it could make it worse. The only thing that saved us so far from this virus is population density. USA will be better equipped to come out of this in the end because they will have herd immunity built up or medical experience. Besides if this virus wipes them out do you really think Canada survives? I personally think we had all better be pulling for the USA because without them there is no Canada. Reply With Quote
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  • Jun 30, 2020 | 19:21 39
    Quote Originally Posted by RTK View Post
    I thought closing borders would not help in fact weren’t we told it could make it worse. The only thing that saved us so far from this virus is population density. USA will be better equipped to come out of this in the end because they will have herd immunity built up or medical experience. Besides if this virus wipes them out do you really think Canada survives? I personally think we had all better be pulling for the USA because without them there is no Canada.
    How do you get herd immunity when people are getting it again and again?

    Of course pulling for the USA but they’re out of control and doing it to themselves trump will wipe quarter of a million people by December easily with no vaccine
    Can’t blame China which is a joke now also since trump the fool is now saying the virus is nothing then why was he blaming China for his collapsed economy?

    But maybe the Russian army can save the USA they’ve paid people to kill Americans and trump doesn’t give a shit about it.

    Absolutely we can save ourselves without the USA in fact there will be opportunity but not if we re fkd as much as they are. But there is no brains in our government either just an eagerness to open things up for the election. Reply With Quote
    Jun 30, 2020 | 19:44 40

    UK numbers, seems the healthcare professionals are doing their job and solving the riddle. Lots more data here on how they are figuring it out. California is as well.

    https://twitter.com/Trinhnomics/status/1277819144449089536?s=20 Reply With Quote
    RTK
    Jun 30, 2020 | 21:29 41 If there is no immunity being built, shut the world down civilization is done... come on you actually think that immune systems will not respond this virus. You get a response, the problem appears that response in some is too active. I am no doctor so no sense trying to profess I understand how the immune system works, but I think reinfection is not going to be a massive problem. Seems things tend to settle down over time in hot spots.

    As for the USA, yes we can step up and find some opportunities, but I suggest we make sure we are considering their welfare as well. Would you try and rent or buy land out from under a neighbour who was just told he had cancer and needs treatment or are you offering to seed some of his crop for him and helping him get through his treatments.

    And yes if the USA goes down in a blaze of glory, Canada is done period. There is no Canada without the USA to protect us... some of us might have the will but our 22’s, Quad tracks and spray planes aren’t automatic weapons, tanks and planes. Russia, China would steam roll us without even needing to use their military, the threat alone would cause us to retreat. Reply With Quote
    Jul 1, 2020 | 03:51 42 https://nationalpost.com/news/canada...-f2041ce3e22e/

    Directly from someone who spent time alongside a Swedish epidemiologist - the severity is decreasing, the decline is expected to continue through summer, and then more severe again in the fall.

    If the CCP disease and its effects should take 2 to 3 years to sort itself out worldwide, Sweden's survivors will be miles ahead of the pack since they will not have suffered from the devastating collateral damages that locked-down countries are experiencing.

    Nor will they have to rebuild a shattered economy. Reply With Quote
    Jul 1, 2020 | 05:07 43
    Quote Originally Posted by RTK View Post
    If there is no immunity being built, shut the world down civilization is done... come on you actually think that immune systems will not respond this virus. You get a response, the problem appears that response in some is too active. I am no doctor so no sense trying to profess I understand how the immune system works, but I think reinfection is not going to be a massive problem. Seems things tend to settle down over time in hot spots.

    As for the USA, yes we can step up and find some opportunities, but I suggest we make sure we are considering their welfare as well. Would you try and rent or buy land out from under a neighbour who was just told he had cancer and needs treatment or are you offering to seed some of his crop for him and helping him get through his treatments.

    And yes if the USA goes down in a blaze of glory, Canada is done period. There is no Canada without the USA to protect us... some of us might have the will but our 22’s, Quad tracks and spray planes aren’t automatic weapons, tanks and planes. Russia, China would steam roll us without even needing to use their military, the threat alone would cause us to retreat.

    Haven’t been listening to what I m saying I guess. Open business in ways that are most safest. Don’t be opening up parties and picking magical numbers for groups to be safe out of thin air that aren’t necessary. You could have a thousand people outside safely distanced in a group and 10 not safe by the way they are grouped there is no direction to this.
    1 person at a time in a store but an airliner can seat you side by side? That’s brilliant.

    The current USA leader wants to destroy all his allies including us simply because he may have been emberrassed by our leader. Lmao there isn’t a country in the world I bet that hasn’t emberrassed him since he does it all by himself the shmuck. Until they have someone that hasn’t got that Agenda hope them well but look after ourselves.
    And in the extreme they aren’t going to disappear there are enough sane people there that won’t happen. But they will be set back greatly as other countries basically are quarantining the entire USA. What a moron to let that happen.

    With trump the Russians and Chinese are already steamrolling us and have been since day one of his presidency. Why hasn’t he said a word of condemnation over the Russians paying to
    Have USA troups murdered? Because in his pea brained intelligence he s worried about the pee pee on the prostitute video. Lmao what a disgrace.
    He needs Vladimir to rig the vote machines !!

    If we want to open up as we are here without more we’ll thought out direction we must shut down the border. Reply With Quote
    Jul 1, 2020 | 05:15 44 Sweden has announced it will form a commission to evaluate its response to the novel coronavirus.

    More than 5,300 Swedes have died compared to around 250 in Norway, 600 in Denmark and 325 in Finland, all of which have populations around half the size.

    Sweden, unlike the rest of Scandinavia, chose not to close schools and businesses to fight the spread of the virus.

    A group of people use outdoor gym equipment in a park in Sweden during the coronavirus pandemic
    Criticism of Sweden's decision to let its citizens take responsibility for not spreading the virus has prompted a review.(Reuters)
    "It is not a question of whether Sweden is going to change as a result of this — the question is how," Prime Minister Stefan Lofven said.

    Sweden's toll is still lower than in some European countries, such as Britain, which has one of the worst death rates in the world.

    Criticism in Sweden has focused mainly on the death toll among elderly residents of care homes — who make up the majority of deaths from the virus — and the late start to widespread testing.


    PS just passing it on. No idea anymore what’s right Or wrong pathway foward.
    Last edited by malleefarmer; Jul 1, 2020 at 05:17.
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