Wheat losses

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Wheat losses

Jun 22, 2020 | 16:49 1 Straight currency futures maths since March 23 we’ve lost $93 per tonne aust dollars.

Currently $264

Ps no positive basis added in the equation.

If basis factored in only current foward prices around the $291. Take off roughly $30 to get my on farm price these are export numbers domestic tad higher but not bidding for grain at moment waiting watching

You guys similar? Reply With Quote
Jun 22, 2020 | 16:51 2 Edit yeah sorry you guys price per bushels have to wok it out when you talk Reply With Quote
Jun 22, 2020 | 17:11 3 #1 13.5 around 235 CAD give or take. Hasn't been much higher for about a year Reply With Quote
helmsdale's Avatar Jun 22, 2020 | 17:20 4 Nearest wheat bids with freight taken off to get to farm gate for here...

#1cwrs 14.0: $237.21 p+h
#1cwrs 14.0: $233.42 paterson
#1cwrs 14.0: $224.91 viterra

#2cwad 12.0 or better: $284.14 paterson
#1cwad 12.0: $275.45 p+h
#1cwad 12.0: $252.08 viterra

All july movement
Last edited by helmsdale; Jun 22, 2020 at 17:22.
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helmsdale's Avatar Jun 22, 2020 | 17:22 5 Except on yellow peas, viterra doesn't even seem to care to be competitive anymore. What are others seeing with regards to viterra? Reply With Quote
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  • Jun 22, 2020 | 18:29 6
    Quote Originally Posted by helmsdale View Post
    Nearest wheat bids with freight taken off to get to farm gate for here...

    #1cwrs 14.0: $237.21 p+h
    #1cwrs 14.0: $233.42 paterson
    #1cwrs 14.0: $224.91 viterra

    #2cwad 12.0 or better: $284.14 paterson
    #1cwad 12.0: $275.45 p+h
    #1cwad 12.0: $252.08 viterra

    All july movement
    Hmmm
    $216 for feed barley at the bin for July movement currently. No grades, trucking, farting around, etc........ Is it worthwhile to grow people chow when stuff that becomes moo poo is within a few dollars?
    Disclaimer......... I can’t seem to grow gradeable wheat out in the muskeg anyways. Reply With Quote
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  • helmsdale's Avatar Jun 22, 2020 | 19:12 7
    Quote Originally Posted by woodland View Post
    Hmmm
    $216 for feed barley at the bin for July movement currently. No grades, trucking, farting around, etc........ Is it worthwhile to grow people chow when stuff that becomes moo poo is within a few dollars?
    Disclaimer......... I can’t seem to grow gradeable wheat out in the muskeg anyways.
    Most years we cant grow very good barley. July tends to burn it down, resulting in light weights and low yields. Reply With Quote
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  • Jun 23, 2020 | 03:13 8 Call me negative but optimism is a great thing. It's absolutely necessary to be an optimist in agriculture, but it does us a disservice sometimes by allowing us to ignore obvious signs and keep hoping instead For higher prices and or better basis.

    Looking for a black swan event errr we’ve had it cv19

    Not ultra negative more got my realism hat on.

    The ole die hard handful of em left......oh if we had single desk this wouldn’t be happening , yeah right $355 here a mid March AWB would have said yep we will caputure that in a pool and you will benefit over next 18 months.

    Saw something on twitter is it saskwheat commission look like a bunch of single desk hacks clinging on for dear life.

    Err shit I think I’ve gone off topic sorry Reply With Quote
    Jun 23, 2020 | 14:45 9 Wheat is a commodity and like most any other, ag or otherwise, its price will tend to fall as long as interest rates fall. There is next to zero possibility of a rise in interest rates for years to come, so the long term trend is unfortunately down. Reply With Quote
    Jun 26, 2020 | 11:12 10 Chicago and Kansas City wheat price snorkelling today . . . Fresh contract lows.
    September KC broke below $4.25/bu this morning. IGC London raised their global wheat production to 768 million MT, up 2 million MT largely due to production increases in Australia and China.
    Technically, these futures are quite oversold, but with little reason for cash recovery right now.

    Changing commodities . . . fat cattle across North America under heavy selling pressure as well this week. Texas cash slipping to $95 to $97/cwt. Alberta fed cattle tubing with the live market breaking below $1.25/lb on limited packer buying. Cattle remain backed up in lots which is contributing to feed barley price strength. Alberta finished cattle losses may be approaching $500 per head. Believe grass cattle and cows holding up well . . . . Reply With Quote
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  • Jun 26, 2020 | 12:57 11 Until the Kurgan, aka USD is replaced, we commodity producers, can expect more of the same. Just goose it to 160+ and get this shit over with. Reply With Quote
    Jun 27, 2020 | 07:39 12 The battle for wheat market share is on . . . .

    Ukraine export wheat prices generally undercut Russian export values. But now they are running neck and neck. Russia has become quite aggressive through June.

    Black Sea export prices have eased about 6 percent since late May . . . . Reply With Quote
    Jun 27, 2020 | 07:59 13
    Quote Originally Posted by Austrian Economics View Post
    Wheat is a commodity and like most any other, ag or otherwise, its price will tend to fall as long as interest rates fall. There is next to zero possibility of a rise in interest rates for years to come, so the long term trend is unfortunately down.
    I really don’t blame lower commodity prices on falling interest rates. Falling interest rates and lower commodity prices are all linked to lack of consumer demand and the attempt to increase that demand or to increase consumer spending. Unfortunately farmers can’t collectively curtail production so we try to produce more from the same land and spend less doing it, hence the race to the bottom and the resulting over production. When I was a pig farmer I watched many farms go under and then watched somebody buy that farm for half of what it cost to build and the second farmer could then make a go of it. In grain farming this doesn’t work because land continues to appreciate due to the aforementioned low interest rates. And of course you have to throw in Mother Nature who sometimes determines your fate. So I certainly don’t have an answer except that those with the best balance sheet will be left standing at the end. Reply With Quote
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  • Jun 27, 2020 | 08:02 14 Where's the #5 durum going? Elevators paying over $7.00 for #5 durum, means it has to be used for human consumption, maybe Africa, as I thought I heard something a week or so ago about shortages in north Africa area? Can #5 durum be turned into pasta,,, low quality pasta??? What gross price would an importer have to pay for this low quality durum, if it's over $7.00 on the east side of Sask(pretty much the highest freight area)???

    And why pay over $7.00 for #5 when, #1 is only a $1.50-1.75 more per bushel?

    Makes me wonder what the real price for #1 is??? $12.00 bucks ,,, or more???

    Is any #1 or #2 durum Canadian making it's way into Europe??? Reply With Quote
    Jun 27, 2020 | 08:12 15
    Quote Originally Posted by errolanderson View Post
    Changing commodities . . . fat cattle across North America under heavy selling pressure as well this week. Texas cash slipping to $95 to $97/cwt. Alberta fed cattle tubing with the live market breaking below $1.25/lb on limited packer buying. Cattle remain backed up in lots which is contributing to feed barley price strength. Alberta finished cattle losses may be approaching $500 per head. Believe grass cattle and cows holding up well . . . .
    High yielding feed barley could end up being a better option than malt again this year. Reply With Quote
    blackpowder's Avatar Jun 27, 2020 | 08:56 16 Interesting on the durum.
    Local terminal here loading some.
    Funny tho we're at least 200 km from the nearest durum field. Reply With Quote
    Jun 27, 2020 | 09:08 17
    Quote Originally Posted by Oliver88 View Post
    High yielding feed barley could end up being a better option than malt again this year.
    China demand for Cdn feed barley may be a sleeper in the new crop year. This could stimulate feed barley rail movement out of Sk and Mb.

    Miss the Western Barley contract for feedlot price discovery . . . It worked, but it worked too well. Reply With Quote
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  • Jun 27, 2020 | 10:08 18
    Quote Originally Posted by errolanderson View Post
    China demand for Cdn feed barley may be a sleeper in the new crop year. This could stimulate feed barley rail movement out of Sk and Mb.

    Miss the Western Barley contract for feedlot price discovery . . . It worked, but it worked too well.
    What is your thought process behind that? Will we be picking up the slack from the Australian trade war? Or the US trade war? Recovery in pig numbers? A happy ending to the Meng extradition?

    I would think that US corn would be cheaper as a feed grain, or do you see Canadian feed grade grain going into the human supply chain, where corn couldn't? Reply With Quote
    Jun 27, 2020 | 15:58 19
    Quote Originally Posted by AlbertaFarmer5 View Post
    What is your thought process behind that? Will we be picking up the slack from the Australian trade war? Or the US trade war? Recovery in pig numbers? A happy ending to the Meng extradition?

    I would think that US corn would be cheaper as a feed grain, or do you see Canadian feed grade grain going into the human supply chain, where corn couldn't?
    Dairy is becoming huge as well.

    I kinda thought the same corn will drag barley down or replace it.

    Went for a crop tour with the boy yesterday did 150 kms through known “dry areas” wow best I’ve ever seen em. May do 3 t ha in absence of frost damage only thing that can stuff em.

    $200 per acre country Reply With Quote

  • Jun 28, 2020 | 02:02 20
    Quote Originally Posted by AlbertaFarmer5 View Post
    What is your thought process behind that? Will we be picking up the slack from the Australian trade war? Or the US trade war? Recovery in pig numbers? A happy ending to the Meng extradition?

    I would think that US corn would be cheaper as a feed grain, or do you see Canadian feed grade grain going into the human supply chain, where corn couldn't?
    Sk and Mb feed barley makes some fine beer in China. And Cdn barley may not be a large enough political target plus the Chinese love their beer.

    Cheap U.S. corn is apt to be railed into southern Alberta this fall, but our barley market may have added export competition to the domestic feed market. Feed barley bids remain strong heading into crop year end as cattle have backed up in feedlots due to COVID. Lethbridge, High River still heard around $245/MT delivered July. Aug/Sep delivered bids Calgary south likely to slip toward $220/MT into harvest market. Reply With Quote
    Jun 28, 2020 | 04:57 21 Correcterrol Chinese love lager type beers.

    The more yellow paler ones and mid strength beers are popular the 3.5% beers.

    We got approached to grow barley for a malt steer in China. When I say we it was a group of 50 local farmers. Specs 1% above normal malt protein but had to have very test weight.

    Never got of the ground there so called premium was a grey area.

    But they were basically buying of grade malt or high grade feed Reply With Quote
    Jun 28, 2020 | 16:27 22 Not real good at tech stuff.

    Maybe error or McDon austraneconomics or was it tech someone a while back or any off you.

    But reading sept wheat support is 475 that were it closed.

    If it breaks one way street or what, harvest pressure wouldn’t be full throttle just yet would it?

    Roughly worked out wheat fallen 55 cents in June.

    If corn stabilises and doesn’t edge lower it’s gotta help whole grain complex?

    Ps non grain comment year on year June 30 19 to jun 30 20 wool has lost 38% since peak in mid sept 45% a fair hit. No demand no factories open and synthetic cheap cheap people buy with there hip pocket Reply With Quote
    Jun 29, 2020 | 15:23 23 Good to see wheat bounced of support Reply With Quote
    Jun 29, 2020 | 15:57 24 Weak support in here I guess. Needs to see some back to back days higher or this could turn lower and draw a bead on the 4.30 area Chicago Reply With Quote
    Jun 29, 2020 | 16:06 25 Great corn crop developing. Sub 3 corn likely. Hope I'm wrong Reply With Quote
    Jun 29, 2020 | 16:24 26
    Quote Originally Posted by farming101 View Post
    Great corn crop developing. Sub 3 corn likely. Hope I'm wrong
    Guess I don’t farm in NHemisphere and understand it all but always been told “ultimately corn is king both high and low prices all the rest are followers”

    Probably not quite true nowadays as grain is global or more than it was in 1981 when I started Reply With Quote