Productivity

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Productivity

May 24, 2020 | 19:10 1 Grain production in this area and on our farm has more than doubled in past 40 years.
See periodic comment that this hurts our profitability and is a bad thing.
Some want to take us back to way of life, smaller and diversified farm operations.
This would be bad, our profitability depends on accepting change.
Do not fall for the line that limiting production is a good idea. Reply With Quote
May 24, 2020 | 21:43 2 So why does controlling production work for some industires but not Ag primary commodity production?

Because it's food and a cheap PLENTIFUL food policy placates the general public and they'll have more money to spend on other "stuff" that churns the economy? Reply With Quote
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  • fjlip's Avatar May 24, 2020 | 21:50 3 The more farmers grow/raise, the MORE the rest of the CHAIN makes on volume. We will always be encouraged to produce MORE for less, so that others make BILLIONS. Reply With Quote
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  • May 24, 2020 | 22:05 4
    Quote Originally Posted by Hopalong View Post
    Grain production in this area and on our farm has more than doubled in past 40 years.
    See periodic comment that this hurts our profitability and is a bad thing.
    Some want to take us back to way of life, smaller and diversified farm operations.
    This would be bad, our profitability depends on accepting change.
    Do not fall for the line that limiting production is a good idea.

    Limiting production or capacity works for railways, graincos, fertilizer, oil companies/OPEC,


    Continuing to produce more for less dollars per bushel....can you double your production per acre in the next 40 years again? Reply With Quote
    May 24, 2020 | 22:11 5 In addition to producing cheap food staples/ingredients.....we get to dump an inordinate amount of money into the economy to do it!

    Aren't we special! You're welcome! Thanks for all the support. Reply With Quote
    GDR
    May 24, 2020 | 22:15 6
    Quote Originally Posted by Hopalong View Post
    Grain production in this area and on our farm has more than doubled in past 40 years.
    See periodic comment that this hurts our profitability and is a bad thing.
    Some want to take us back to way of life, smaller and diversified farm operations.
    This would be bad, our profitability depends on accepting change.
    Do not fall for the line that limiting production is a good idea.
    I think you are kinda missing the point of the supply demand logic here. The point is to drive the profit margin up not make less money. I for one would be happier to make twice as much per acre and farm only half as much. Not lazy, just cant always do things as well as I would like because there just aren't enough hours in the day to get it all done. I also think too many of us dont spend enough time enjoying family and other things in life because of time constraints. We need to farm more and more acres to justify the capital expenses, just a vicious circle.

    The mixed farm comment, pretty easy to make arguments on either side of that debate and not sure there is a right answer for everyone. I'm very diversified which works well for me in most ways other than my previous comment on time shortages because there just isnt anytime of year where its slow. Reply With Quote

  • GDR
    May 24, 2020 | 22:22 7 I can see how lots of areas have doubled production with advances in no till and fert/chem and limiting sumerfallow. Cant say the same thing here as moisture never usually limiting, likely 20% increase in yields in the same time frame. But land and machinery has gone up maybe 1500% so not sure it's a better deal. Reply With Quote
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  • May 24, 2020 | 22:25 8 Farmers are greedy. End of story. If farmers would run there business based on returns expected like other industry’s they wouldn’t try to produce products at or just above the cost of production. We do it to ourselves and then bitch and complain about everything that happens that’s out of our control. Most businesses build into the cost of production the expectation of cost over runs but farmers seems to forget the unexpected then cry about it after the fact. How can u change that mentality. The sad part is that the industry knows this and they use this against the farmer as a weakness and exploit it. Drop the mic. Reply With Quote

  • May 25, 2020 | 09:50 9 40% increase in yields ?? How much did you grow and how much did you buy ??? Reply With Quote
    May 25, 2020 | 11:25 10 Farmers are a victim of decades of falling interest rates as much as any entrepreneur. As interest rates are artificially forced downward due to central bank manipulation of the currency, asset prices must rise proportionately. Profit margins will be relentlessly crushed until the next collapse in interest rates ensues. The cycle simply repeats until all the capital in the economy is consumed.

    Governments don't see things this way as the collapse in interest rates allows them to borrow to buy votes seemingly with impunity. But the current crisis is causing an unprecedented cratering in tax revenue, and soon enough they will be looking for ways to fill the holes they have dug.

    My prediction is that before long a "wealth tax" will be implemented on an individual's or a business' net worth, and that includes farmers. The tax will be on the value of capital assets whether they have been disposed of or not. Governments will soon be thirsting for capital to be consumed and will vilify those who still possess any.

    I expect that these clowns will also slash or eliminate the capital gains exemption on farmland sales. Reply With Quote
    May 25, 2020 | 12:55 11 Down here in the southwest where I live , my yields are directly proportionate to the amount of rain we get, period !

    I have grown 50 plus bpa of triticale , rye and wheat. However , 25 bpa of all of the mentioned crops has been way more commonplace.

    Down here , the big crops are the exception to the rule. The land prices are great if you are in the selling side of things. Hoping in about 10 years I can cash in on some of the " greed" that has been going on around our part of the country. Reply With Quote

  • May 25, 2020 | 16:59 12 I’m small and diversified. I and I alone put prices on my products. My own prices. And people pay happily. I fail to see how that is bad. Adapting to change is changing. Not doing the same thing as we have for a hundred years. Grow more more more, for less, less, less? That is the furthest thing from change as I can see. Farmers have zero control over their destiny in this big commodity ag.

    I don’t get how this is positive change. I also fail to see how more small farms would be bad for our communities, our rinks, our stores, our tire shops, our hospitals, our schools.

    This change you speak of, has in my opinion been nothing short of disastrous.

    Final note. On my farm, my yields have been trending sharply downwards due to weather related garbage. I used to grow way better, way bigger crops in the late nineties and early 2000’s.

    If my grain yields doubled, I would be getting 180 to 200 bushel barley, 130 wheat, 120 canola, 70 flax, 280 oats, 130 peas, and so on.
    Last edited by Sheepwheat; May 25, 2020 at 17:10.
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  • May 25, 2020 | 21:18 13 In my opinion, productivity and efficiency gains are definitely real but another cold reality is those gains have also been stolen by Industry always taking more and in some cases the market paying less and our commodity prices definitely not keeping up with the increase in input prices.

    To me productivity gains would be making more money with the same amount of land you farmed 40 year's ago. Not farming multiple times more, getting paid marginally higher now for what we grew then, and substantially more for inputs now.

    For some people it is nothing more than a treadmill.

    Oh, and the risk! We bare it. Most of it.

    Open the check book, max the credit card(s), max the op loan and LOC, max FCC credit and take the cash advance....because the more you spend-the more you grow-the more you make...right?!?!? It's just that easy.
    Last edited by farmaholic; May 25, 2020 at 21:31.
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  • May 25, 2020 | 22:30 14
    Quote Originally Posted by farmaholic View Post
    In my opinion, productivity and efficiency gains are definitely real but another cold reality is those gains have also been stolen by Industry always taking more and in some cases the market paying less and our commodity prices definitely not keeping up with the increase in input prices.

    To me productivity gains would be making more money with the same amount of land you farmed 40 year's ago. Not farming multiple times more, getting paid marginally higher now for what we grew then, and substantially more for inputs now.

    For some people it is nothing more than a treadmill.

    Oh, and the risk! We bare it. Most of it.

    Open the check book, max the credit card(s), max the op loan and LOC, max FCC credit and take the cash advance....because the more you spend-the more you grow-the more you make...right?!?!? It's just that easy.
    Unless you own 4 businesses can lecture others and don’t rely solely on farm income . Just saying Reply With Quote
    May 26, 2020 | 05:28 15 I don't think some guys understand what the word index means nor can they correlate the value of the worth of farmers to the economy...

    If you indexed the price of grain over history to expenses and then to production....

    They only thing indexed is inputs and production...

    Grain prices are lower ...

    In the 70s the old man would buy a half ton truck with a load of grain from a 3 ton delivered 2 miles from the farm...

    Today the trucking bill to buy a half ton would be more than that half ton cost and it would take 6 super Bs minimum to buy a half ton.


    As an example. ..

    I am reminded when people talk change in farming is good...of this...

    From SNL the change bank ....

    We lose on every transaction but we make it up on volume....

    In farming ....we lose on every bushel but guys make it on on volume. ...

    The economy gains but farmers lose. ..

    And the guys spouting the nonsense represent us obviously with somewhat idiotic statements at the start of the thread ....what happens when 100 bpa doesn't pay the bills ....then what?

    Here is something to keep in mind ....the large irrigation districts in Saskatchewan who had their infrastructure built by taxpayers and now have the ability to grow that 100bpa need 40 bucks an acre for 5 years (and that won't end) to be able to irrigate...

    They say they can't afford the infrastructure costs...

    Same thing will happen to the guy that doubled his production in 40 years...it's a no win ...

    And farmers have not extracted their value to the economy....

    more rambling ....was it agvocate nonsense that said 1 in 8 jobs in Canada are ag related. ...with the current pandemic my guess is it's 1 in 5 now...

    Agriculture is a driving force to the economy right now and is totally ignored....

    Air Canada will receive more than farmers...and they will go buy other entities or reduce their debt....

    Meanwhile farmers are told to find it in the marketplace...

    The sad part to my dribbling here is that even voting conservative won't fix farmers problems....the vision of the last conservative government for agriculture is now coming home to roost...

    Liberals thought we enjoyed the conservative ideas for farmers and they are more than happy to run with it...

    If you look at last year when it was dry and how the government ignored ranchers until it rained....you pretty much know government wait for a crisis in order to act....there is no proactive thinking just reactive...
    Last edited by bucket; May 26, 2020 at 05:53.
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  • May 26, 2020 | 06:04 16 Totally agree with you Bucket, imo there's a price crunch coming before we turn back up long term. Velocity of $ is deader then roadkill, the Central banks need to amp it up closer to 10x to repair the 6weeks of damage. There's no possibility of inflation for commods in this environment. We need an "extinction event" to get a turn around of the cycle from 2012, since '16 it's merely been a reaction. Keep your head on and buckle up. The negative crude prices was our early warning. Reply With Quote
    May 26, 2020 | 06:14 17 What really puzzles me is Bibeau said to basically collapse agri-invest accounts before any help will come...

    Odd because it has tax implications ....good for government....and the guys with large accounts are holding it tightly...they have been waiting patiently to jump on the downed neighbour...you guys know the guy thats been licking his lips to take advantage.....

    And while there may be 2 billion in accounts ...the CFA recently asked for 2.6 billion as a start...

    Still leaves 600 million short ....doesnt it?

    I don't think the general population went out and re-mortgaged their house , used up all their savings and sold their toys and extra vehicles before the government started handing out money to watch Netflix....or Kijiji would be swamped... Reply With Quote

  • May 26, 2020 | 06:21 18 BTW ...where are the farm groups....shouldn't they be on the radio every day during seeding explaining to the public what the value is to the economy....the billion dollar project....

    The farm groups current methods of extracting help for farmers isn't and hasn't been working for quite a while...

    When are they going to get serious about action????

    Saskatchewan increased capital spending by 2 billion and had not a penny for agriculture through the last year ...whether is be the poor pastures ranchers faced last year or the shit harvest of last fall...

    Marit told Bibeau they didn't have the money for any agri-recovery program....but the government found 300 million for cities and municipalities... Reply With Quote
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