Canola intra-day and daily charts....

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Canola intra-day and daily charts....

Apr 23, 2020 | 07:03 1 Is there any "technical" correlation between short(not sell) trends on an intra-day chart and movement on a daily futures price chart?

INTRA-DAY

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DAILY

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Does the activity on the intraday chart dictate movement on the daily going forward. When intraday has trouble maintaining upward momentum.......

If and when canola gets close to that $475 range again, I'm pricing the last 25%.

Can intra-day be used as a futures precursor? Reply With Quote
Apr 23, 2020 | 07:34 2 Maybe the open-high-low-close of the daily is all thats needed? Especially candlestick? Reply With Quote
Apr 23, 2020 | 08:12 3 The answer to all your questions would be a no IMHO.

Rule: The shorter the time frame you are monitoring, the more time you have to dedicate to watching the charts and prices, and also the greater the chance of making a decision based on some noise that will whipsaw you.

What is of some value is looking at the tail end of the trading day. What were the volumes, which way did the prices go in the last hour, which day of the week and month is it, what were the sizes of bids and asks and which direction were they taking prices?

To make intraday trading even begin to make sense you need access to bids and asks, bid/ask sizes, bid/ask spreads and volumes Reply With Quote
Apr 23, 2020 | 10:02 4 It has been my anecdotal observation that canola never closes at, or even close to the daily high, as compared to soybeans, or soyoil. I've never verified if this is statistically true, but it seems that on a day when all grains are up, an everything else closes very close to the daily highs, canola will end the day closer to the middle of its range. Not sure it makes much difference for long term charting, but it seems to make target orders a necessary evil to get the last few pennies in a rising market. Reply With Quote
Apr 23, 2020 | 10:50 5 So don't pay much attention to a 5-7 day span on a intraday chart?
Do the same rules apply to it as a daily chart, higher highs etc, closing higher than the previous day's close, opening higher than the previous day's close, and all the other important stuff I know nothing about.

I realize the timeframe is a blink in a loooong stare! Reply With Quote
Apr 23, 2020 | 11:13 6
Quote Originally Posted by farmaholic View Post
So don't pay much attention to a 5-7 day span on a intraday chart?
Do the same rules apply to it as a daily chart, higher highs etc, closing higher than the previous day's close, opening higher than the previous day's close, and all the other important stuff I know nothing about.

I realize the timeframe is a blink in a loooong stare!
Have you studied fractals at all? Reply With Quote
Apr 23, 2020 | 11:28 7
Quote Originally Posted by AlbertaFarmer5 View Post
Have you studied fractals at all?
Honestly, without googling that I have no idea what that is.

I've been production oriented my whole life under the CWB Mother Hen's wing. Lol.

Too old to study, my brain is full.

Ok. What are they? Reply With Quote
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    LEP

  • Apr 23, 2020 | 12:09 8 Fractals in my own words;
    Same patterns will repeat as you zoom in or zoom out, in resolution, Or in time in this case. The classic example is a coastline, keep zooming out, or in, and the random patterns keep showing up.

    Is that helpful at all? probably not. But if you are trading with monthly charts, and monthly time-frames, you should therefore be able to apply the same logic to a millisecond chart. Reply With Quote
    Apr 23, 2020 | 14:44 9
    Quote Originally Posted by farmaholic View Post
    So don't pay much attention to a 5-7 day span on a intraday chart?
    Do the same rules apply to it as a daily chart, higher highs etc, closing higher than the previous day's close, opening higher than the previous day's close, and all the other important stuff I know nothing about.

    I realize the timeframe is a blink in a loooong stare!
    A 5-7 day span can easily be seen on a daily chart.
    Intraday charts are for day traders or high frequency trading.
    A lot of the charting indicators break down on an intraday chart Reply With Quote
    Apr 23, 2020 | 15:16 10 Ok yòu guys, so I did see the pattern in the daily, and I'm hoping July will make its way back to about 475.

    Unless some fun-da-mental news takes it out of its range? Rhythmic technicals....? Reply With Quote
    Apr 27, 2020 | 22:33 11
    Quote Originally Posted by AlbertaFarmer5 View Post
    Have you studied fractals at all?
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    Kinda like this? Reply With Quote
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  • Apr 27, 2020 | 22:57 12 If you’re interested in fractals from a stocks and commodities point of view “Trading Chaos” by Bill Williams is pretty good. For a good introduction (not trading related) “Chaos” by James Gleick is worth a look. You’ll never look at a coastline the same. Both books a bit dated but very well written. Reply With Quote

  • Apr 28, 2020 | 10:47 13 I sure don't like where canola seems to be flattening out. Where are we going? Reply With Quote
    May 13, 2020 | 06:22 14 JULY is approaching that 475 mark again.
    Is there any news to propel it past and rally?
    Might just pull the trigger on the last bit we have delivered but is unpriced.

    Chart people and analysts? Reply With Quote
    May 13, 2020 | 06:25 15 JHC , farma , this is not a marketing forum * Reply With Quote
    May 13, 2020 | 06:29 16
    Quote Originally Posted by caseih View Post
    JHC , farma , this is not a marketing forum *
    I know, I know, but I contribute more than my fair share of non marketing crap here so it's good to throw some marketing stuff in here every once in awhile.

    Canola gained about ten bucks a tonne in the last two to three weeks but had to really work for every bit of it. Reply With Quote
    May 13, 2020 | 06:32 17 You would think that the poor spring harvest would propel higher - maybe. Reply With Quote
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  • May 13, 2020 | 07:02 18 I wonder what the price of canola would be if all of last year's canola crop came off when it was supposed to.
    I know some likely got burned, some was left behind this spring because it was in mud and water holes, the over- winter losses due to shatter..... but I think that is all already factored into the price today.

    Did the market really need all those lost tonnes? Although it seems if something is cheap enough it always finds a new home. Reply With Quote
    May 13, 2020 | 07:12 19
    Quote Originally Posted by farmaholic View Post
    I wonder what the price of canola would be if all of last year's canola crop came off when it was supposed to.
    I know some likely got burned, some was left behind this spring because it was in mud and water holes, the over- winter losses due to shatter..... but I think that is all already factored into the price today.

    Did the market really need all those lost tonnes? Although it seems if something is cheap enough it always finds a new home.
    Had it been a normal harvest last year I think you would be seeing 8 dollar canola right now...

    I think it could go there this year as well... Reply With Quote

  • May 13, 2020 | 07:33 20 Resistance to closing above ML (red arrows)

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    May 13, 2020 | 07:57 21 I wish I knew where to draw the lines. Reply With Quote
    May 13, 2020 | 08:19 22 472/44.092= too cheap Reply With Quote
    May 13, 2020 | 08:30 23
    Quote Originally Posted by sumdumguy View Post
    472/44.092= too cheap
    Don't forget the basis!

    Actually, I have a positive $77.36 basis. $12.45/bu today picked up.

    The negative basis on commodity canola makes the price spread even wider compared to the specialty canola.

    Like probably about $2.60/bu.

    But I wouldn't grow it because it's slow and has a big yeild drag.

    Storage and fuel costs money, so a smaller lighter crop is cheaper to grow and store.

    Stayin Ghetto poor growing specialty canola.....
    Last edited by farmaholic; May 13, 2020 at 08:32.
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    May 20, 2020 | 06:52 24 Name:  Screenshot (19).jpg
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    stuck below 475 Reply With Quote
    May 21, 2020 | 11:00 25 Higher not working....well, try lower than..... Reply With Quote
    May 21, 2020 | 14:28 26 Spot prices are about 10 bucks. Trigger trigger trigger. I really hate the way marketing has evolved with target price contracts. Reply With Quote
  • 1 Like

    LEP

  • May 21, 2020 | 14:52 27
    Quote Originally Posted by farming101 View Post
    Higher not working....well, try lower than.....
    At risk of sounding conspiratorial, I think you are right. Need to play the emotions of fear and greed against us to keep shaking bushels loose. Up a bit and we sell, but As soon as it appears to be an uptrend we get greedy and stop selling holding out for higher, So the trend has to reverse Until we all think it's going to zero and fear takes over and we sell. Reply With Quote
    May 26, 2020 | 12:45 28 Good to see a green day and that canola avoided sinking below 458 July.

    Watch for closes above 466.50 to give a chance for 475.
    Failing that watch out for that sub 458.... Reply With Quote
    May 26, 2020 | 22:20 29 Now,
    Wouldn’t it be interesting if part of the CGC mandate was to, collect :
    - every Tuesday and Thursday licenced grain buyers must report
    - number of farmers that have a price offer formally with a exporter
    - the commodity, grade and tonnage
    - delivery month

    Then CGC to report this info every Monday morning. Skippy could do this, no doubt in my mind. Reply With Quote
    Jun 1, 2020 | 10:06 30 Sub 458 hit this morning-RSN. Gunning for a new low for July contract now. Reply With Quote