Kenney address

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Kenney address

blackpowder's Avatar Apr 7, 2020 | 18:32 1 Not quite like King Ralph but a page from the book. More info in a believable voice than uh, uh, uh you know who could ever act out.
Projection numbers have peak into May. Lockdown April at least.
Real numbers 800000. Distancing till end of May. $20B deficit.
%25 unemployment possible. Called out Ottawa on foreign flights and said we'll put in our own restrictions. Total case numbers expected higher than think. Curve following S Korea tho. Foresee negative oil prices.
He's gotta have a fireside chat every week lol.
Last edited by blackpowder; Apr 7, 2020 at 18:49.
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  • Apr 8, 2020 | 07:15 2 Yes the projections of as many as 3300 deaths, the $20 billion dollar deficit and 25% unemployment are certainly a wake up call. If you are Jason Kenney a politician that got elected promising lower deficits, more jobs and getting pipelines built so that we can market more oil the Ovid-19 virus has basically blown it all up. The immediate human cost and then the long term effects on our economy are undoubtedly disturbing. Fortunately my cows are keeping me well entertained and I don't have much time to dwell on the uncertain future. Reply With Quote
    Apr 8, 2020 | 09:02 3 Listened to Kenney address this AM on https://globalnews.ca/edmonton/ Given the positive comments about Kenney speech on here I expected some direction and plans to cope with the current situation, yet all he delivers in his speech is despair and excuses.

    I cannot believe his comments starting at 11:30 mark where he states: Western Canadian oil in the last week has fallen as low as $3.00/barrel. There is a very real possibility that as global inventories overflow our energy will hit negative prices. We will be paying people to take away our energy.

    No wonder so many on this list like him. He follows the same production model many posters do. Produce more if prices are low. However, he even goes one step further than most farmers - raising the possibility of Alberta paying people to take away our oil. Wow! Most farmers will at least reduce production when production costs exceed variable costs, Kenney actually raises possibility of not only giving away production but paying people to take it.

    Couple this with the 1 plus billion Alberta just announced spending on XL plus another 6 billion in loan guarantees to sell our resources at below cost of production? At least Trudeau bought an existing pipeline first that is still generating revenues with 4 billion. And you think Kenney is a better money manager? or even a Conservative? Ha Ha.

    He talks of diversifying the economy but he has now totally disseminated Alberta agriculture. He has cut every department except energy. What a joke. Reply With Quote
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  • Apr 8, 2020 | 09:09 4 i merely commented that he uh, duh, umm, umm, dah , speaks clearly Reply With Quote

  • Apr 8, 2020 | 09:20 5 Good thing Tech Resources project, Energy East, Northern Gateway projects have all been chased away by the Trudeau-Butts clown show. Hopefully the enviro-kook friends of Butts don’t get their way with the TransMountain pipeline.

    History will be hard on these Western Canada hating traitors. Reply With Quote

  • ajl
    Apr 8, 2020 | 09:51 6
    Quote Originally Posted by dmlfarmer View Post
    Listened to Kenney address this AM on https://globalnews.ca/edmonton/ Given the positive comments about Kenney speech on here I expected some direction and plans to cope with the current situation, yet all he delivers in his speech is despair and excuses.

    I cannot believe his comments starting at 11:30 mark where he states: Western Canadian oil in the last week has fallen as low as $3.00/barrel. There is a very real possibility that as global inventories overflow our energy will hit negative prices. We will be paying people to take away our energy.

    No wonder so many on this list like him. He follows the same production model many posters do. Produce more if prices are low. However, he even goes one step further than most farmers - raising the possibility of Alberta paying people to take away our oil. Wow! Most farmers will at least reduce production when production costs exceed variable costs, Kenney actually raises possibility of not only giving away production but paying people to take it.

    Couple this with the 1 plus billion Alberta just announced spending on XL plus another 6 billion in loan guarantees to sell our resources at below cost of production? At least Trudeau bought an existing pipeline first that is still generating revenues with 4 billion. And you think Kenney is a better money manager? or even a Conservative? Ha Ha.

    He talks of diversifying the economy but he has now totally disseminated Alberta agriculture. He has cut every department except energy. What a joke.

    Yes unfortunately Kenney had nothing new in his speech. Going to need some new ideas. He is subsidizing XL as I am sure that the economics of this project is negative just like the bungled trans mountain pipeline. Reply With Quote
    blackpowder's Avatar Apr 8, 2020 | 10:55 7 The time to upgrade the farm is when wheat is $9.00
    If you don't good luck at $4.00
    If you blame the markets all the time and do nothing ever, you won't be farming long. Same thing for letting others tell you what to plant.
    Govts have done both. Some want us to pack er in.
    How would you fix the oil industry by doing nothing ever?? Following outsiders interests? Reply With Quote
    Apr 8, 2020 | 11:46 8
    Quote Originally Posted by blackpowder View Post
    The time to upgrade the farm is when wheat is $9.00
    If you don't good luck at $4.00
    If you blame the markets all the time and do nothing ever, you won't be farming long. Same thing for letting others tell you what to plant.
    Govts have done both. Some want us to pack er in.
    How would you fix the oil industry by doing nothing ever?? Following outsiders interests?

    Best time to upgrade is 5 years into $4 wheat.

    Save and invest the profits from $9 so it's like $13 wheat when you go to buy land equipment and bins at $4 prices Reply With Quote
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  • Apr 8, 2020 | 12:29 9
    Quote Originally Posted by dmlfarmer View Post
    Listened to Kenney address this AM on https://globalnews.ca/edmonton/ Given the positive comments about Kenney speech on here I expected some direction and plans to cope with the current situation, yet all he delivers in his speech is despair and excuses.

    I cannot believe his comments starting at 11:30 mark where he states: Western Canadian oil in the last week has fallen as low as $3.00/barrel. There is a very real possibility that as global inventories overflow our energy will hit negative prices. We will be paying people to take away our energy.

    No wonder so many on this list like him. He follows the same production model many posters do. Produce more if prices are low. However, he even goes one step further than most farmers - raising the possibility of Alberta paying people to take away our oil. Wow! Most farmers will at least reduce production when production costs exceed variable costs, Kenney actually raises possibility of not only giving away production but paying people to take it.

    Couple this with the 1 plus billion Alberta just announced spending on XL plus another 6 billion in loan guarantees to sell our resources at below cost of production? At least Trudeau bought an existing pipeline first that is still generating revenues with 4 billion. And you think Kenney is a better money manager? or even a Conservative? Ha Ha.

    He talks of diversifying the economy but he has now totally disseminated Alberta agriculture. He has cut every department except energy. What a joke.
    I will agree on certain points, disagree on others. From a transparency standpoint Jason Kenney is at least willing to share government projections unlike Justin Trudeau who is not. Jason Kenney is certainly easier to listen to and better at answering impromptu questions.

    As far as investing in the XL pipeline I believe it is beneficial to get as much done as possible before the fall election in the U.S.

    Governments in Alberta have been discussing diversification for decades. Many government investments have been made with limited success. The biggest problem in Alberta is that voters have had many years where oil royalties have contributed as much as 25% of government revenues. Voters therefore refuse to entertain the imposition of a sales tax which would provide a more consistent source of revenue. I do agree that cutting funding to agricultural programs is wrong and short sighted. The fact remains the post covid-19 era will be less prosperous regardless of which province you live in in Canada. Reply With Quote

  • GDR
    Apr 8, 2020 | 12:47 10
    Quote Originally Posted by dmlfarmer View Post
    Listened to Kenney address this AM on https://globalnews.ca/edmonton/ Given the positive comments about Kenney speech on here I expected some direction and plans to cope with the current situation, yet all he delivers in his speech is despair and excuses.

    I cannot believe his comments starting at 11:30 mark where he states: Western Canadian oil in the last week has fallen as low as $3.00/barrel. There is a very real possibility that as global inventories overflow our energy will hit negative prices. We will be paying people to take away our energy.

    No wonder so many on this list like him. He follows the same production model many posters do. Produce more if prices are low. However, he even goes one step further than most farmers - raising the possibility of Alberta paying people to take away our oil. Wow! Most farmers will at least reduce production when production costs exceed variable costs, Kenney actually raises possibility of not only giving away production but paying people to take it.

    Couple this with the 1 plus billion Alberta just announced spending on XL plus another 6 billion in loan guarantees to sell our resources at below cost of production? At least Trudeau bought an existing pipeline first that is still generating revenues with 4 billion. And you think Kenney is a better money manager? or even a Conservative? Ha Ha.

    He talks of diversifying the economy but he has now totally disseminated Alberta agriculture. He has cut every department except energy. What a joke.
    You have to understand he is trying to explain the situation to a large segment of the population that thinks money grows on government trees. As depressing as it sounds you have to hammer home what the problem is because people just dont get it. Most of us as farmers understand economics and consequences of production and prices, a lot of people are oblivious to financial facts. Hopefully some will listen and understand that with no dollars coming in that the government handouts and unnessecary spending needs to be stopped or at least reduced.

    DML you say farmers are smart enough to cut back production but I say when have we ever seen that. You are wrong, low prices means you need to produce more bushels to most people. And to say you would stop production if was negative again is not true, fortunately ag has not quite seen that... yet. But think about it if all of a sudden there was a "no bid" in July for grain would you still harvest it? I bet you would. If there were a "no bid" before seeding do you seed anyways hoping for improvement or do you summerfallow, with costs of tillage or chem? Wouldn't both of those choices being the same as what you are criticizing - taking a business loss while operating? Those big mines with thousands of employees and billions of investment can't just turn the tap off because its Wednesday and then turn it back on the following week when prices change, or if they moth ball it they still have huge costs to produce nothing.

    I do however agree that the Kenney government is too focused on oil and almost feel offended as a farmer that we get dismissed often as I think we do our part keeping the economy rolling. FT. McMurray and some of those other real oil towns are for sure sustained by oil but how many towns would be left accross the prairies without ag?

    Sometimes I think we all need to keep quiet and let the "chosen" ones do their jobs. Often even though we think we know better we may not. Reply With Quote

  • blackpowder's Avatar Apr 8, 2020 | 14:17 11 Why was the oil industry not making hay while the sun shone?
    The anti oil lobby had nothing to do with it???
    Govt squandering in good times is a separate issue.
    Rachel Suzuki Fonda better lay low for a while.
    We'll need all the income we can get while the getting is good. That's business. Good luck taxing dreams. Reply With Quote
    Apr 8, 2020 | 14:32 12
    Quote Originally Posted by GDR View Post

    DML you say farmers are smart enough to cut back production but I say when have we ever seen that. You are wrong, low prices means you need to produce more bushels to most people. And to say you would stop production if was negative again is not true, fortunately ag has not quite seen that... yet. But think about it if all of a sudden there was a "no bid" in July for grain would you still harvest it? I bet you would. If there were a "no bid" before seeding do you seed anyways hoping for improvement or do you summerfallow, with costs of tillage or chem? Wouldn't both of those choices being the same as what you are criticizing - taking a business loss while operating? Those big mines with thousands of employees and billions of investment can't just turn the tap off because its Wednesday and then turn it back on the following week when prices change, or if they moth ball it they still have huge costs to produce nothing.

    ...
    Read what I said again. It is opposite of you say I said. Most farmers do not cut production as prices fall but prefer to try to increase production volume to account for lower prices thereby maintaining income levels.

    However, I know of no farmers who actually pay buyers to take their production which is what Kenney said the oil industry would have to do it prices turn negative. Farmers would rather store grains for years rather than pay a buyer to take it. They already have invested a fortune in growing a crop and certainly would not throw more money away by paying someone to take their production away.

    Your analogy of not seeding or harvesting if there is no bid is not comparable. Farmers have invested in that crop and will seed or harvest it but then store it until it can be sold. They will not pay someone simply to get it off the farm. The only comparison that could be made is if they have livestock which die and then they resort to hiring someone to haul the dead animals away. But at this point the livestock have no value, unlike live animals, or grain, or oil for that matter which are all saleable assets, if not now but will have value sometime in the future.. Why would anyone, including Kenney even suggest paying someone to take our assets and resources? You say oil industry cannot afford to not to produce - so how could they afford not only to produce but to actually pay someone to take the production away. His comments were ludicrous. Reply With Quote
    Apr 8, 2020 | 17:58 13
    Quote Originally Posted by dmlfarmer View Post
    Listened to Kenney address this AM on https://globalnews.ca/edmonton/ Given the positive comments about Kenney speech on here I expected some direction and plans to cope with the current situation, yet all he delivers in his speech is despair and excuses.

    I cannot believe his comments starting at 11:30 mark where he states: Western Canadian oil in the last week has fallen as low as $3.00/barrel. There is a very real possibility that as global inventories overflow our energy will hit negative prices. We will be paying people to take away our energy.

    No wonder so many on this list like him. He follows the same production model many posters do. Produce more if prices are low. However, he even goes one step further than most farmers - raising the possibility of Alberta paying people to take away our oil. Wow! Most farmers will at least reduce production when production costs exceed variable costs, Kenney actually raises possibility of not only giving away production but paying people to take it.

    Couple this with the 1 plus billion Alberta just announced spending on XL plus another 6 billion in loan guarantees to sell our resources at below cost of production? At least Trudeau bought an existing pipeline first that is still generating revenues with 4 billion. And you think Kenney is a better money manager? or even a Conservative? Ha Ha.

    He talks of diversifying the economy but he has now totally disseminated Alberta agriculture. He has cut every department except energy. What a joke.
    Hog producers are forced to continue to produce at a loss or else its bye bye future contracting with the one or two processors. Reply With Quote
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  • GDR
    Apr 8, 2020 | 20:48 14 DML, where are they gonna store it? We are used to storing a year plus of production. I dont know the numbers but sure it is more like days or weeks at most for the oil companies. I agree doesn't sound like a good production model, but they need to compare it to the other choice of doing a shutdown and restart to see what makes best financial sense, neither of us know that answer.

    And the farmer storing grain doesnt always work either. I have 2 neighbor examples I can think of. One was canola in a hopper bin for 7 yrs, still there cause they cant figure how to chip it out, another had piles of feed wheat in the field with only a tarp over it, 2nd year spread it with a shit spreader. And the reality is price can always go lower. Reply With Quote
    Apr 8, 2020 | 21:17 15
    Quote Originally Posted by GDR View Post
    DML, where are they gonna store it? We are used to storing a year plus of production. I dont know the numbers but sure it is more like days or weeks at most for the oil companies. I agree doesn't sound like a good production model, but they need to compare it to the other choice of doing a shutdown and restart to see what makes best financial sense, neither of us know that answer.

    And the farmer storing grain doesnt always work either. I have 2 neighbor examples I can think of. One was canola in a hopper bin for 7 yrs, still there cause they cant figure how to chip it out, another had piles of feed wheat in the field with only a tarp over it, 2nd year spread it with a shit spreader. And the reality is price can always go lower.
    We are not talking about oil producers merely meeting production costs. We are talking about Alberta citizens actually paying to give away assets. So would the canola farmer have been further ahead by getting 0 dollars for his canola and actually paying a grain buyer to take it off his hands? Or the wheat farmer not even getting the fertilizer value from his wheat and on top of that having to outlay more cash for a buyer to take his wheat. Because that is what Kenney was suggesting.

    You are equating a perishable commodity to oil, which has been in the ground for millions of years. Surely it will keep in the ground and remain a valuable asset until this crisis is over and in my opinion, that is a much better option than Albertans and Canadians paying industry and foreign governments to take it off our hands.
    Last edited by dmlfarmer; Apr 8, 2020 at 21:34.
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    Apr 8, 2020 | 21:33 16 Furthermore, Kenney says Alberta could be looking at unemployment in Alberta of 25% in the next two years. That is higher than unemployment has ever been anywhere in Canada. The worst was in NFLD in the 80's and then it was only 18%. Hell it is worst that the US unemployment numbers at the peak of the great depression at 24%. And Kenney is talking about spending money to give away our resources! If his truly believes his predictions I hope he shares his government plan with us real soon as to how Albertans are supposed to cope instead of just telling us how bad it is going to be.

    Nice touch though, telling the oil industry the day before that the environmental cleanup is now a "collective financial liability." Was he telling the industry to expect another taxpayer gift to cover abandoned well cleanup. When did the oil industry and conservatives become such socialists to demand the taxpayers clean up their mess.

    I guess just add this largess to other support governments from all parties give the oil industry. Industry says we cannot compete with foreign oil because ours cost more to produce so we need support. We cannot afford to build pipelines because of low prices so please subsidize pipeline construction. We cannot afford to build refineries in Canada, it is must better that subsidized pipelines take Canadian oil to US or Chinese refineries. Our increasing production has outstripped pipeline capacity so we need rail transport now so the government needs to build tank cars for us and displace some of that grain being moved and don't worry about safety. Yet when world oil prices fall to historical low levels that same industry tells Canadians faced with gasoline prices that don't come down that the industry is competitive so prices are where they should be.
    Last edited by dmlfarmer; Apr 8, 2020 at 22:05.
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    Apr 9, 2020 | 06:48 17 You guys are comparing apples to oranges here. We can take a crop off and pile it, buy bins, put it in cheap bags to store it. You cant do that with oil! Oil needs to move. Hence a likely scenario to have to pay someone to take it.

    Secondly, you cant just turn off the taps on the oil sands for example and turn them back on next week. It's a long drawn out process. I dont know exactly how long it takes but I'd be willing to bet it would take many months. And then many months to get things going again. Therefore it'll cost more to do that than keep things rolling at a loss for a year. Reply With Quote
    Apr 9, 2020 | 07:11 18 Upon reflection, the only way to make a comparison would be to spend the money putting seed , fert and spray into your crop and then tell the farmer to just leave it in the field, dont harvest it. Would you do that? No. Because even if grain prices tanked like oil has, you would still want to recoup some of your costs while not incurring more costs trying to make fields seedable next year Reply With Quote
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    GDR

  • Apr 9, 2020 | 07:44 19
    Quote Originally Posted by dfarms11 View Post
    Upon reflection, the only way to make a comparison would be to spend the money putting seed , fert and spray into your crop and then tell the farmer to just leave it in the field, dont harvest it. Would you do that? No. Because even if grain prices tanked like oil has, you would still want to recoup some of your costs while not incurring more costs trying to make fields seedable next year
    Good comparison dfarms11

    We need to pray for wisdom and encourage our leaders... not throw rocks at them... they have the toughest job of anyone except/next to health care workers in ICU and hauling out the dead bodies...or dairy farmers dumping milk down the drain.

    Try stopping milking cows and see how well that goes when we need milk in a month...

    Easter Blessings! We pray for wisdom for our MP'S and MLA'S...PM and PREMIERS. Many blessings, safety, health, and good seeding weather! Reply With Quote
    Apr 9, 2020 | 08:35 20
    Quote Originally Posted by dfarms11 View Post
    Upon reflection, the only way to make a comparison would be to spend the money putting seed , fert and spray into your crop and then tell the farmer to just leave it in the field, dont harvest it. Would you do that? No. Because even if grain prices tanked like oil has, you would still want to recoup some of your costs while not incurring more costs trying to make fields seedable next year
    tell me, how do you recoup costs if you get paid nothing for what you produce and in fact have to pay someone to take it.

    in your farm example, you would have less expenses to leave the crop in the field than if you had to actually pay someone to take the crop (note in negative pricing you do not get paid anything for what you are selling and in fact your costs increase because you are paying someone to buy your asset) Reply With Quote
    Apr 9, 2020 | 08:46 21
    Quote Originally Posted by TOM4CWB View Post
    Good comparison dfarms11

    We need to pray for wisdom and encourage our leaders... not throw rocks at them... they have the toughest job of anyone except/next to health care workers in ICU and hauling out the dead bodies...or dairy farmers dumping milk down the drain.

    Try stopping milking cows and see how well that goes when we need milk in a month...

    Easter Blessings! We pray for wisdom for our MP'S and MLA'S...PM and PREMIERS. Many blessings, safety, health, and good seeding weather!
    Tom, in the states today, they basically have stopped milking the cows. Milk is being poured down the drain everyday because there is no market for it. Cheaper for the farmer themselves to pour it down the drain then to pay someone to haul it away. Reply With Quote
    wd9
    Apr 9, 2020 | 08:48 22
    Quote Originally Posted by TOM4CWB View Post
    Good comparison dfarms11

    We need to pray for wisdom and encourage our leaders... not throw rocks at them... they have the toughest job of anyone except/next to health care workers in ICU and hauling out the dead bodies...or dairy farmers dumping milk down the drain.

    Try stopping milking cows and see how well that goes when we need milk in a month...

    Easter Blessings! We pray for wisdom for our MP'S and MLA'S...PM and PREMIERS. Many blessings, safety, health, and good seeding weather!
    So where is God in this? Hasn't shown up for work healing anyone or performing any miracles, must not be an essential service. Is he in isolation too? Reply With Quote
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  • LEP
    Apr 9, 2020 | 08:53 23
    Quote Originally Posted by dmlfarmer View Post
    tell me, how do you recoup costs if you get paid nothing for what you produce and in fact have to pay someone to take it.

    in your farm example, you would have less expenses to leave the crop in the field than if you had to actually pay someone to take the crop (note in negative pricing you do not get paid anything for what you are selling and in fact your costs increase because you are paying someone to buy your asset)
    So when the price of canola was $9 earlier this year did any farmers sell at this or did they wait to sell? It doesn't matter because at that point in time the price was $9.

    The same as when the price goes negative on oil. Does that mean there will still be oil flowing on anything except that which for a whole host of reasons can't be stopped that quick? It doesn't matter because that is still the price offered that day. Reply With Quote
    Apr 9, 2020 | 09:08 24
    Quote Originally Posted by wd9 View Post
    So where is God in this? Hasn't shown up for work healing anyone or performing any miracles, must not be an essential service. Is he in isolation too?
    I will hazard a guess that God's representatives are still raping young children....didn't they just put another one in jail the other day... Reply With Quote
    Apr 9, 2020 | 10:01 25 Did any of you guys listen to Kenney's address yesterday? If you haven't find it on net and listen it is well worth it. Reply With Quote
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  • Apr 9, 2020 | 10:10 26 then listen to the "moistly" incident or the "water box thingy" speech Reply With Quote
    Apr 9, 2020 | 10:34 27 Kenney's prediction of 25% unemployment looks grim.

    Albertans are going to be dependent on the rest of Canada for support until the demand for oil returns to more normal levels.

    Kenney is spending taxpayers dollars on pipelines. And considering asking for import tariffs and production cuts that don't really fit with the Conservative playbook. Desperate times call for government intervention even in Alberta. Reply With Quote
    Apr 9, 2020 | 11:01 28
    Quote Originally Posted by dfarms11 View Post
    Upon reflection, the only way to make a comparison would be to spend the money putting seed , fert and spray into your crop and then tell the farmer to just leave it in the field, dont harvest it. Would you do that? No. Because even if grain prices tanked like oil has, you would still want to recoup some of your costs while not incurring more costs trying to make fields seedable next year
    In most of Agriculture the marginal land gets seeded back to grass or not used when prices of grains drops enough. The low price of oil needs to idle the oil production in the marginal areas. The low prices of oil for the last 5 years has caused a large loss of jobs in Alberta and now the spin off industries like car sales, bars, etc are going to really feel the long tail of pain. I don't see oil ever coming back to its former glory. Going the way of Agriculture.

    So what is Alberta going to do to employ all these previous oil patch workers? I have no idea. Hopefully technology jobs can expand.

    Canada is also in trouble as the big transfer payments to support much of Canada from this oil money is going to dry up.

    Lots of changes coming in the next 10 years. If you have modest amounts of money be prepared for the governments to pick your pockets hard. If you have lots of money, you have already left the country and moved your cash to safer places. Reply With Quote
    Apr 9, 2020 | 11:05 29 Alberta doesn't make transfer payments to the rest of Canada.

    They do however pay a lot of federal tax because of high incomes and a high per capita GDP.

    This downturn is going to hurt every Canadian. But Alberta will suffer more because they are so dependent on the oil industry.

    Is this the the time for Alberta to get serious about diversifying its economy?

    If Kenney wants to pick winners and losers with taxpayers money why doesn't he invest in more food processing and help build agriculture and food related jobs?

    Why invest only in the tar sands that are not going to be a good long term investment?
    Last edited by chuckChuck; Apr 9, 2020 at 11:08.
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    Apr 9, 2020 | 11:08 30 or just start doing most of the business under the table like quebec Reply With Quote