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Apr 5, 2020 | 18:05 1 ok chickies, this guy has the govt models on his site compared with the actuals coming in now.

In case any of you are math deficient, the models used to shut down the economy are coming in with hospitalizations 2-5 fold higher than the actuals.

More than 100,000 americans were supposed to be hospitalized by now, only 30,000 currently are. The curve is going to be less than half as high and half as long as predicted and its got nothing to do with social distancing. Another blown forecast by our egghead modellers. They must have moved the climate change folks on to this.

https://twitter.com/justin_hart/status/1245798197533896704

Sorry if you don't like the message, prove it wrong if you can. Funny how a little bit of real data can destroy a narrative but we have seen that before. Reply With Quote

  • Apr 5, 2020 | 18:29 2 Because it is working , esp. In sask.
    That is what we want, I do not have
    It . Have not left the farm.
    You want us to fill the Hospitals.
    Make it unmanageable.
    Kill it first, starve it for victims.
    Then when we have a battle plan and
    Testing , we will all be back to work Reply With Quote

  • biglentil's Avatar Apr 5, 2020 | 18:50 3 Name:  Screenshot_20200405-183507_Samsung Internet.jpg
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    Not sure what planet you live on Jazz. Your flu is worse bs was a terrible fail but you wont give up. That type of thinking is what got us into this mess. Even with the protocol in place cases in Canada are doubling every 7 days, 15531 confirmed cases in Canada as of today. Without everyone wearing masks the model will likely continue expect 31000 in a week, 62000 in 14 days, 124000 21 days, 248000 in 28 days, 596000 in 35 days, 1.2m in 42 days, 2.4m in 49 days, 4.8m in 56 days, 9.6m in 62days... Around then we will hit an inflection point in which the rest of the population will take longer to infect. Why don't you look at my models posted here over a month ago damn near bang on. Doesn't take a rocket surgeon.
    Last edited by biglentil; Apr 5, 2020 at 18:59.
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    GDR
    Apr 5, 2020 | 19:18 4
    Quote Originally Posted by jazz View Post
    ok chickies, this guy has the govt models on his site compared with the actuals coming in now.

    In case any of you are math deficient, the models used to shut down the economy are coming in with hospitalizations 2-5 fold higher than the actuals.

    More than 100,000 americans were supposed to be hospitalized by now, only 30,000 currently are. The curve is going to be less than half as high and half as long as predicted and its got nothing to do with social distancing. Another blown forecast by our egghead modellers. They must have moved the climate change folks on to this.

    https://twitter.com/justin_hart/status/1245798197533896704

    Sorry if you don't like the message, prove it wrong if you can. Funny how a little bit of real data can destroy a narrative but we have seen that before.
    Dr Jazz, why you fight the reality that the rest of the world can see is beyond me?? Reply With Quote
    Apr 5, 2020 | 19:23 5 Screw the inatimate economy, I would rather err on the side of caution and have the people in my life I'm closest to be here for as long as possible. I refuse to put a price on life.

    Anyone with high risk friends and relatives who are poor candidates for recovery from CV-19 should understand this. Reply With Quote
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  • Apr 5, 2020 | 19:39 6
    Quote Originally Posted by GDR View Post
    Dr Jazz, why you fight the reality that the rest of the world can see is beyond me??
    Jazz sounds like a fellow who called into Gormley on Friday. He went On and On about how this was no worse than ordinary flu..... Gormley did politely tell him no it wasn’t. Way more polite than I would have done. Maybe it was you jazz ?

    Couldn’t believe that this many weeks In to this and some people haven’t heard the message Reply With Quote
    fjlip's Avatar Apr 5, 2020 | 19:43 7 "Without everyone wearing masks the model will likely continue"

    You all know that MAX 95% is stopped by a surgical mask worn properly. 5% will still get you. Any other type/cloth is meant to protect others from YOU if you have the virus. They do way less % than a N95, some zippo. And consensus is that the wetter/more moist they get the less effective. And if you have EYES, guess what? Droplets of exhale with virus will get in that way. Never seen an unvented set of googles. Face Shield, well shit can swirl around that into your eyes. That's how we get ANY virus/bacteria, nose and eyes, DON"T TOUCHA DA FACE!

    Over thinking might get you paranoid, best STFAWAY from every one! 6' apart outside is fine, visit talk for FS! Going to see folks through a window tomorrow, poor very senior couple going bonkers not seeing any kids/grandkids for 3 weeks!

    Admit NOTHING is 100%, maybe a head in a plastic bag with wicked filters and pressurized air?

    Try your best but don't scare the shit out of everyone. Especially those RISKING daily working, providing YOU with essential/ important stuff everyday. Not everyone can hide out on the farm.
    Last edited by fjlip; Apr 5, 2020 at 19:52.
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    wd9
    Apr 5, 2020 | 19:46 8 No one can prove you're wrong. It's too late.

    Only 30,000.

    Grandmothers, Mothers, University graduates, musicians, engineers, fathers, grand fathers, brothers, sisters.

    Spouses. Helpless people in seniors centers, locked up and dying alone, their siblings heartbroken and alone as well.

    Doctors, nurses, RT's, ICN's, EMTs, working endlessly to save lives, dying.

    I feel bad for you Jazz. No one in your life, or at least no one that matters. You're a victim of careful social engineering with cognitive science. We all are.

    https://www.sacbee.com/opinion/calif...193085404.html Reply With Quote
    Apr 5, 2020 | 19:54 9 If I read it right Jazz is saying the modelling is flawed, 100,000 projected and actual 30,000 hospitalized. An emergency nurse in Regina says hospitals are pretty empty and very few are ill enough to need to see a doctor. She says just 1 or 2 in hospital, with compromised body issues. Dr Knut Wittkowski says fastest route to seeing an end is herd immunity. (80% need to contact the virus.) He claims this social distancing only extends the virus’ life. Not saying one way or other but just saying there’s many perspectives and many levels of fear. Reply With Quote
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  • fjlip's Avatar Apr 5, 2020 | 19:58 10 Italy is seeing lower deaths per day, NOT ALL MASKS..

    Name:  italy- Daily deaths.jpg
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    fjlip's Avatar Apr 5, 2020 | 20:01 11
    Quote Originally Posted by sumdumguy View Post
    If I read it right Jazz is saying the modelling is flawed, 100,000 projected and actual 30,000 hospitalized. An emergency nurse in Regina says hospitals are pretty empty and very few are ill enough to need to see a doctor. She says just 1 or 2 in hospital, with compromised body issues. Dr Knut Wittkowski says fastest route to seeing an end is herd immunity. (80% need to contact the virus.) He claims this social distancing only extends the virus’ life. Not saying one way or other but just saying there’s many perspectives and many levels of fear.
    Latest report today said 4 in hospitals? Out of 246 positive, some recovered, 14000 tests, still 98.3% negative, what were those sick of if they had Corona symptoms bad enough a Dr. decide to test? Never an answer to that. Reply With Quote
    biglentil's Avatar Apr 5, 2020 | 20:02 12 It's known that the amount of virus innoculem load is correlated with the severity of the illness. A light load and your immune system has a much better chance of building a defense rather than a direct cough in the face.

    If no one in public is wearing a mask your particle intake is 100%. If you are the only one wearing an N95 mask your particle intake is 5%. If everyone is wearing N95 your particle intake is 5% of 5% or .025%. If everyone is wearing a homemade mask at say 80% effectiveness the total particle intake is only 4% of everyone without. I protect you and you protect me. Reply With Quote
    Apr 5, 2020 | 20:13 13 Why aren't masks optional for frontline workers?

    Or, I will still leave the air filters in my tractor this spring knowing they aren't 100% effective.

    Those damned delicate lungs eh, bet that virus wouldn't stand a chance in the gastro-intestinal tract.(just a guess on my part) Reply With Quote
    Apr 5, 2020 | 20:20 14 Sask's saving grace is probably our population density, I hate going to Regina, next time I'm wearing a burka. Maybe even double up the face part.

    I like sumdum's last post and agree. Reply With Quote

  • ajl
    Apr 5, 2020 | 20:44 15 Your likely right Jazz, the numbers do not support the hyper levels of paranoia out there but you will have to accept that the damage is already done. If you want to go about your business in full Hazmat gear, knock yourself out. Picking up the pieces is what to focus on now. If your over 50 and out of a job, you are likely researching suicide methods now as you will never hold one again. At least not one with any quality. The economy was already headed down and the Covid just put that in process into overdrive. As another pointed out an economic restart oversight committee for canuckistan would need God himself on it as the situation is hopeless. Reply With Quote
    Apr 5, 2020 | 20:50 16
    Quote Originally Posted by ajl View Post
    Your likely right Jazz, the numbers do not support the hyper levels of paranoia out there but you will have to accept that the damage is already done. If you want to go about your business in full Hazmat gear, knock yourself out. Picking up the pieces is what to focus on now. If your over 50 and out of a job, you are likely researching suicide methods now as you will never hold one again. At least not one with any quality. The economy was already headed down and the Covid just put that in process into overdrive. As another pointed out an economic restart oversight committee for canuckistan would need God himself on it as the situation is hopeless.
    The economy was largely fake and on a steady drip of manipulation. The problems weren't dealt with long ago and now no dose of medicine can resuscitate the patient. In palliative on morphine.... Reply With Quote
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  • Apr 5, 2020 | 21:09 17 I'm an immunocompromised individual due to being on an immunosuppressing drug for a neuro disease. My spouse is in frontline healthcare and is in contact with 500+ people per day. I feel like maybe I've got more skin in the game than a lot of folks on here. That said I think this whole covid19 thing has been blown so far out of proportion its sickening (more that the damn virus). I appreciate people like Jazz bringing different numbers/charts to the narrative being shoved down our throats. At times like this skepticism and critical thinking are more important than ever. I'm not seeing that anywhere. When Ontario brings out worse case stats saying that 15,000 will die that sounds bad, but their population is over 14.5 million so thats a death rate of .1%. SFA. Of those 15,000 many will be knocking on deaths door due to comorbitities and/or old age. I just don't see how this is worth destroying the world over. If it takes me out so be it but the numbers say that won't happen. When this is all over, and a few people have died, most of you will pat yourselves on the back and say you did what you had to do to keep the old folks breathing a few more years, but you won't acknowledge the repercussions of this path you wanted to take. Repercussions being massive increase in bankruptcy, suicide, terminal diagnoses not being caught in time due to the focus on covid, massive increase in crime, government getting increasing and unlimited power to control our everyday lives, etc which will in time dwarf the negative consequences this virus physically caused. Though well intentioned and noble, there are some very short sited viewpoints on this site. Wake up and look at the big, long term picture!
    Last edited by OvernOut; Apr 6, 2020 at 11:18.
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  • Apr 5, 2020 | 21:25 18
    Quote Originally Posted by fjlip View Post
    Latest report today said 4 in hospitals? Out of 246 positive, some recovered, 14000 tests, still 98.3% negative, what were those sick of if they had Corona symptoms bad enough a Dr. decide to test? Never an answer to that.
    We are doing well not overloading the hospital system which I believe is what the goal is.
    For Saskatchewan 60-70 from that amount have recovered.
    3 deaths
    1 currently in ICU, 3 others in hospital.

    Small towns seem like ghost towns and there is hardly any traffic on any roads or highways.
    People are being very sanitary and some people in Moose Jaw are walking around in hazmat suits....one guy even made his German Shepherd wear one. (I’m not joking) Reply With Quote

  • Apr 5, 2020 | 21:52 19 In Ontario one nursing home with 65 residents has had a shocking 23 deaths.

    I wonder how many have DNR/ DNI requests in place?

    I'm betting most.

    I know most come to a point they don't fear death.

    IF that is the case where does that fit with these scary reports of not enough ventilators for the oldest?


    The media's reporting on this is sometimes outright scare mongering.


    Maybe that's what they think we need?

    Stay safe. Reply With Quote
    Apr 5, 2020 | 22:07 20 We have two 95 year old moms in full-time care. We have been locked out for about three weeks. Our concern is the fact that they won’t have their supports advocating for them should they need us. Kinda uncomfortable feeling. Fingers crossed and hoping this will be over soon..... but prolly not. Reply With Quote
    Apr 5, 2020 | 22:40 21 Overnout,

    I've stated, "financially, who and what business/industry will be left to pay for all the money the gov is handing out like its worthless and accruing debt like its meaningless....."

    There will be economic casualties. I've instructed my kids to use up any gift cards to small ma and pa shops. The repercussions are going to be mind boggling.


    I also stated as many people will likely die whether we flatten the curve or let it spread rampantly, flattening it only makes it more manageable....therefore maybe enabling us to save afew more lives.


    Damned if you do, damned if you don't. Very difficult situation to manage. Reply With Quote
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  • Apr 6, 2020 | 08:52 22 Jazz is not claiming that the coronavirus is harmless. Merely pointing out that the worst case scenario models are just that: models. The mainstream media, on the other hand, routinely parades them as if they seamlessly reflect the current state of affairs.

    I have to agree that a lot of leaders are taking a page from the climate change playbook. Reply With Quote

  • Apr 6, 2020 | 09:01 23 Correctimundo Austrian! Actors act and Modellers muddle. I don’t buy into all the hype generated by the “system” of paid-off prophets of doom. Reply With Quote
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  • fjlip's Avatar Apr 6, 2020 | 09:24 24 What about the EYES? Masks no help there. No comments, what do others think? Viruses enter there too... Reply With Quote
    biglentil's Avatar Apr 6, 2020 | 09:30 25
    Quote Originally Posted by fjlip View Post
    What about the EYES? Masks no help there. No comments, what do others think? Viruses enter there too...
    Masks keep upwards of 95% of the particles out of the air, but yes you're right eye protection is a good idea.
    Last edited by biglentil; Apr 6, 2020 at 09:34.
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    wd9
    Apr 6, 2020 | 10:08 26 As soon as society starts going back to "normal'" the numbers will once again sky rocket. This will go on for months. Reply With Quote
    Apr 6, 2020 | 10:13 27 Many who comment on the present covid-19 situation say the authorities were listening to scientists and health organizations and then forming policy. I think that is true.

    Many lament that the authority's choice and implementation of policy has seemingly got many nations behind the curve and in danger of having their hospital facilities overtaxed and unable to give the best care possible to the sick.

    What could or should have been done to get ahead of the curve? Any comments?

    Just a thought, while we may not see ICU's all across the world overflowing with covid-19 cases, really is that a bad thing? How exactly could the spread of a contagious disease be managed so that just the right amount of admissions into ICU's were maintained? This is not something that can be managed with precision in an open society with individual rights.

    Unrelated but I will add it here: This situation is exactly why an individual should draw up a health care directive. It relieves the system from going all out to try save someone with an incurable or terminal disease/illness. Reply With Quote
    fjlip's Avatar Apr 6, 2020 | 11:14 28 "What could or should have been done to get ahead of the curve? Any comments?"

    I said way back, anyone travelling out of country should be clearly informed that they MIGHT not get back in if something like this shows up else where. All flights and entry points will be SLAMMED shut till we understand WTF is out there. We had ZERO cases domestically, ALL were imported and spread here later.

    Yes us and parents have all directives in order... Reply With Quote

  • Apr 6, 2020 | 11:43 29 Sorry guys, but the argument is over. CDC dropped all the projections in half today. There is nothing left to debate.

    Did some people die, unfortunately yes. Flus have hot spots every year and yes young people die too. Those hot spots may be exacerbated by unsrestriced travel from and to major metro areas. We have stuffed a lot of people in more cities. The MSM just never told you about every hour before like this. Reply With Quote
    Apr 6, 2020 | 11:48 30
    Quote Originally Posted by wd9 View Post
    I feel bad for you Jazz. No one in your life, or at least no one that matters. You're a victim of careful social engineering with cognitive science. We all are.
    Its called being around the block a few times wd9. I have lots of people who matter to me and a lot who have died from all causes include almost 10 to cancer, but I am sure as hell not going to concede my freedoms and my rights for this or anything, nor will I risk my kids economic future for slim evidence.

    I am not sure how you grew up wd9, but my family has been down in the pits many times and we don't cower from anything and all the older people in my family would say the same.
    Last edited by jazz; Apr 6, 2020 at 11:57.
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