Really cool chart!

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Really cool chart!

wd9
Mar 31, 2020 | 09:11 1 There are some cool charts out there, but this one is really cool. Will drop off the list here very quickly because there aren't a bunch of comments you can make, its just data. You can see Canada is just starting to flatten. This is encouraging!

Amazing how every country follows the exact same trajectory, however their actions affect when the curve drops.

But wow! USA.

https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/ Reply With Quote
wd9
Mar 31, 2020 | 09:12 2 Companion video



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Mar 31, 2020 | 10:56 3 Sadly it becomes very clear that the world has a long way to go on this one.

Only South Korea has wrestled this thing down and has put out what most would be confident are reliable statistics Reply With Quote
Mar 31, 2020 | 11:09 4 I've been watching that one too Brian - I hope you're right that we're peaking.

If you plot only Canada, Italy & South Korea, we all follow identical trajectories until we don't. I'm still afraid we may be following Italy. Its increasingly clear we are not following S. Korea.

I think we are following exactly the wrong protocols. We should be completely isolating the most vulnerable populations and the rest of us should be actively trying to get infected. Reply With Quote
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  • Blaithin's Avatar Mar 31, 2020 | 11:24 5
    Quote Originally Posted by bobofthenorth View Post
    I think we are following exactly the wrong protocols. We should be completely isolating the most vulnerable populations and the rest of us should be actively trying to get infected.
    Sorry, no. I’m not going to go out and try and get infected just because I’m young and have no known underlying health concerns.

    The one person I knew who died from swine flu was a 17 yr old who ended up having leukaemia and didn’t know it. I’ve heard similar stories coming out of the UK of 18 and 21 yr olds dying of covid, and fast, even though they had no known underlying health conditions.

    I believe a large portion of the stats coming out of New York are middle aged and young adults who think they’re safe and end up hospitalized. They are taking space from those more vulnerable. Absolutely no part of flattening the curve involves go out and get infected and hope. This isn’t the chicken pox. Reply With Quote
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  • biglentil's Avatar Mar 31, 2020 | 11:47 6 How can expect to flatten the curve like South Korea and China if we do not encourage masks for everyone? Reply With Quote
    Mar 31, 2020 | 11:53 7 I think your right big l if we all were masks if going out to get groceries even a cheap mask if can't get good ones is still better than nothing Reply With Quote
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  • Mar 31, 2020 | 12:05 8 Could probably add Taiwan to the list.
    Reliable reporting, low numbers and it look like the trend will hook lower.
    Only if the trendline hooks lower can one confidently say protocol is working. Reply With Quote
    Mar 31, 2020 | 12:13 9
    Quote Originally Posted by biglentil View Post
    How can expect to flatten the curve like South Korea and China if we do not encourage masks for everyone?
    How do I get on the list.
    I am self isolating big time....so ten masks would go a long way in my life.

    I would rather look silly and alive than stupid and dead. Reply With Quote
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    wd9

  • Mar 31, 2020 | 12:19 10 I would honestly like to contract this and "hopefully" survive and have immunity. But I am not that confident this virus wouldn't put me in the ground. So I will continue to mitigate as much risk as possible from getting it....and hope an effective vaccine is soon developed. Reply With Quote
    biglentil's Avatar Mar 31, 2020 | 12:40 11
    Quote Originally Posted by farmaholic View Post
    I would honestly like to contract this and "hopefully" survive and have immunity. But I am not that confident this virus wouldn't put me in the ground. So I will continue to mitigate as much risk as possible from getting it....and hope an effective vaccine is soon developed.
    There is some evidence that 14% are getting reinfected weeks after recovering. They are not sure how long immunity lasts.
    Last edited by biglentil; Mar 31, 2020 at 13:09.
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    Mar 31, 2020 | 12:42 12
    Quote Originally Posted by biglentil View Post
    About 14% are getting reinfected weeks after recovering. They are not sure how long immunity lasts.
    Where are you getting that figure from? Last I saw, the decimal place was two digits to the left. Reply With Quote
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  • Mar 31, 2020 | 12:48 13
    Quote Originally Posted by biglentil View Post
    About 14% are getting reinfected weeks after recovering. They are not sure how long immunity lasts.
    Seems soon to be mutating....unless it was "engineered" that way.

    Maybe time to wrap myself in a protective layer of tinfoil. Reply With Quote
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  • biglentil's Avatar Mar 31, 2020 | 12:51 14
    Quote Originally Posted by AlbertaFarmer5 View Post
    Where are you getting that figure from? Last I saw, the decimal place was two digits to the left.
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucele.../#6aec202d5c0f
    The February 14 article from*Caixin, a Beijing, China-based media group, that was entitled “14% of Recovered Covid-19 Patients in Guangdong Tested Positive Again.”* Reply With Quote
    Mar 31, 2020 | 13:56 15 Name:  65442895-A47D-436B-8178-EBB59BA1739F.jpg
Views: 396
Size:  12.0 KB
    Quote Originally Posted by farmaholic View Post
    Seems soon to be mutating....unless it was "engineered" that way.

    Maybe time to wrap myself in a protective layer of tinfoil.
    Im not pissin around with tim foil, lol! Reply With Quote
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    wd9

  • Mar 31, 2020 | 14:02 16
    Quote Originally Posted by biglentil View Post
    There is some evidence that 14% are getting reinfected weeks after recovering. They are not sure how long immunity lasts.
    That's bullshit. They are testing positive for the virus because of latent virus load. its not a reinfection. Reply With Quote
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  • wd9
    Mar 31, 2020 | 15:08 17
    Quote Originally Posted by jazz View Post
    That's bullshit. They are testing positive for the virus because of latent virus load. its not a reinfection.
    Finding a phrase on google does not equate to understanding it. They have no idea how effective the antibodies are, how long they last, how effective against mutations, in short they just don't know whether the immunity produced from SARS-Cov-2 can prevent reinfection. Reply With Quote
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  • biglentil's Avatar Mar 31, 2020 | 15:38 18
    Quote Originally Posted by jazz View Post
    That's bullshit. They are testing positive for the virus because of latent virus load. its not a reinfection.
    Did you lick some handrails at the park and now regret it? Reply With Quote
    Blaithin's Avatar Mar 31, 2020 | 16:54 19 I don't know if the "reinfection" rate is still at 14%, I think it's dropped some. However there have been patients that tested positive, recovered and tested negative, all of a sudden test positive again. However none of them seem to have symptoms.

    The last theory I heard was that maybe the tests were throwing false positives but nobody really knows yet.

    Also because there are two strains of it going around right now, I haven't heard anything that catching one would give you immunity to the other one.

    It's all a learning as we go process. Nobody can say for sure it is one thing or not another thing. Reply With Quote