Crude Oil

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Crude Oil

Mar 29, 2020 | 08:33 61 The Russians and Saudis have been left to run roughshod over the middle east by the Trump government. They are turning the screws to the worlds oil producers to drive them out of business. They will then cut oil supplies and raise the price to infinity and beyond. Reply With Quote
Mar 29, 2020 | 08:44 62
Quote Originally Posted by sumdumguy View Post
Oil was over $100/barrel for quite a while. Maybe tables have turned and wheat will goto $100 a bushel? Dreamer, but crazy things happen in a crazy world - Vive la Prairie!
$100 wheat would cause land prices, rent, fertilizer, and machinery values to skyrocket immediately. Lets say if wheat went to $100/bu, with an average yield of 60 bpa, that would be a gross of $6000/acre. In no time, our costs would jump to $5900/acre, so that we would be lucky to net $100/acre on an average year. So basically same net income as now, except we've increased our financial risk by many multiples, this is how it has always worked in the past, and i don't see things changing in the future. Reply With Quote
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  • Mar 29, 2020 | 08:52 63 This shit show has been coming for years. Commodities have tanked in the past and regenerate themselves again eventually. We’ve just been living high on the hog for so long we forget that the good times have to end to bring some reality to the situation. Just look what everything costs. Something needs to happen to reset the clock. Shud have happened in 08 but the baby boomers couldn’t stand to let their 401k’s and RRSPs and pensions go in the toilet so here we sit. Some of them now dead due to Corona no less. Print, print , print ain’t gonna fix this. Reply With Quote
    Mar 29, 2020 | 09:11 64 I will say this.....at 5 dollars a barrel ..80.9 cents is much too high for a posted gas price locally....

    And once the oil price starts to go up...what will gas prices be...

    You would think the refiners would be locking it supplies for as long out as they could....

    5 liters of gas buys a barrel of WCS....
    Last edited by bucket; Mar 29, 2020 at 09:14.
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  • Mar 29, 2020 | 09:31 65 Starting to here talk of North American putting tariffs on all OPEC oil entering continent.
    $40/barrel should be sufficient and the refineries in North American have no reason to import unethical oil from some of these dictatorships when North America is energy self sufficient. Reply With Quote

  • Mar 29, 2020 | 09:48 66 But ...but ...but ...what happened to the open market?????

    Oh yeah that little capitalist when shit hits the fan needs price controls and a guaranteed price support ...for oil....

    Who would have thunk it....

    What are farmers told ???? Why do some farmers still believe in open markets....its a fallacy...

    Every industry is getting help.....except farmers....and those that represent us are doing a shit job getting the message out...

    .

    If the government engages in price control for oil then there should be price controls on gas and diesel...

    Don't think for a minute the refiners don't have their supply locked in at 5 bucks a barrel for the foreseeable future???? Reply With Quote
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  • Mar 29, 2020 | 10:08 67 The big picture that most pundits seem to be missing here is that Saudi Arabia, and OPEC in general have lost the ability to put a floor under oil prices. This is the only tool they had left, this is desperation. Shale has been that disruptive. They no longer control the world oil market, and likely won't ever again. Now all they can do is try to put their competition out of business by flooding the market. But in the case of shale oil, it takes a matter of weeks to get a new well on line, US is the easiest place to raise capital, the government sees energy independence as vital, and so will ensure they get that financing to rise from the ashes in record time when the need arrives.

    As soon as oil prices rise back to where shale oil is profitable ( and that level will be even lower when this is all over, thanks to bankruptcies wiping the legacy debt off the books, and new companies taking over without that cost burden, plus cost efficiencies thanks to the low price environment), shale will once again flood the market, making Saudi's sacrifices all for nothing, and proving they are impotent in the shale era. Reply With Quote

  • Mar 29, 2020 | 10:47 68
    Quote Originally Posted by AlbertaFarmer5 View Post
    The big picture that most pundits seem to be missing here is that Saudi Arabia, and OPEC in general have lost the ability to put a floor under oil prices. This is the only tool they had left, this is desperation. Shale has been that disruptive. They no longer control the world oil market, and likely won't ever again. Now all they can do is try to put their competition out of business by flooding the market. But in the case of shale oil, it takes a matter of weeks to get a new well on line, US is the easiest place to raise capital, the government sees energy independence as vital, and so will ensure they get that financing to rise from the ashes in record time when the need arrives.

    As soon as oil prices rise back to where shale oil is profitable ( and that level will be even lower when this is all over, thanks to bankruptcies wiping the legacy debt off the books, and new companies taking over without that cost burden, plus cost efficiencies thanks to the low price environment), shale will once again flood the market, making Saudi's sacrifices all for nothing, and proving they are impotent in the shale era.
    Peak oil was a fallacy....and when you think about it ..if OPEC and then Russians have to lower prices to get business or maintain it....who is really in control????...sounds like a buyer's market not a seller's...

    Wouldn't anyone that buys oil for refining be as far out as possible at the current and future price???? Reply With Quote
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  • helmsdale's Avatar Mar 29, 2020 | 11:03 69
    Quote Originally Posted by bucket View Post
    Peak oil was a fallacy....and when you think about it ..if OPEC and then Russians have to lower prices to get business or maintain it....who is really in control????...sounds like a buyer's market not a seller's...

    Wouldn't anyone that buys oil for refining be as far out as possible at the current and future price????
    Peak oil was indeed a fantasy. Wish I had the contact info for all my old classmates back in ~ '05. I wagered a case of beer with the lot of them that we'd see $20/bbl sooner than we'd see $200. I was thought a dullard...

    That aside, there's still a decent contango play to be had. Ships are being loaded and put to sea stuffed with oil that is sold months out into the futures. The market craters in about 10-14 weeks when storage (both land and sea based) will be used up with current production #'s. SHTF when that happens. Reply With Quote
    Mar 29, 2020 | 11:11 70
    Quote Originally Posted by bucket View Post
    I will say this.....at 5 dollars a barrel ..80.9 cents is much too high for a posted gas price locally....

    And once the oil price starts to go up...what will gas prices be...

    You would think the refiners would be locking it supplies for as long out as they could....

    5 liters of gas buys a barrel of WCS....
    agreed , but a lot is taxes , and the $170 k refinery workers are to blame also
    federated is a heavy handed control freak , but rural Sask would have SFA if not for them Reply With Quote
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  • Mar 29, 2020 | 11:21 71 Bucket

    "Oh yeah that little capitalist when shit hits the fan needs price controls and a guaranteed price support ...for oil....

    Who would have thunk it....

    What are farmers told ???? Why do some farmers still believe in open markets....its a fallacy..."

    Spot on !

    When oil was $100.00 USA/barrel from 2012 to 2014 and 2006 to 2012 also had strong prices where did all the profits go the Oil Companies made? We as farmers had to pay those high fuel prices. I also had to tighten my belt to survive as a farmer and made sure I saved money in the good years

    So I as a farmer will have a lower fuel bill hopefully for one season and now some idiot farmer posts on here preaching that unethical should be cut off to North America!

    I stated post after post calling out the so called capitalists here on Agriville. But then again they follow every word the Orange Man says so what can you expect from them. Reply With Quote
    Mar 29, 2020 | 11:43 72
    Quote Originally Posted by bucket View Post
    But ...but ...but ...what happened to the open market?????

    Oh yeah that little capitalist when shit hits the fan needs price controls and a guaranteed price support ...for oil....
    Doesn’t Saudi Arabia currently have a tariff on our grain due to Freeland lecturing them? Reply With Quote

  • Mar 29, 2020 | 11:44 73 The logical sidea of brain says capitalists are the socialists of the world....

    Capitalism is the quickest way to socialism...

    The last two issue in the world ...one in 2008 and now this one....have proven that the capitalists beg for bailouts...so society says phuck it ....why work when the capitalists are never held to account...

    Record bank profits in Canada and they still get help in the name of helping the population...bank profits won't go down and if the record a loss then they can write down against profits .... Reply With Quote
  • 1 Like


  • biglentil's Avatar Mar 30, 2020 | 08:07 74 WCS crude $3.82 a barrel. Reply With Quote
    Mar 30, 2020 | 08:18 75 WTI crude was down to $19.85 a few min ago! NYH RBOB gas is down 9cents as well.
    Canola up $3.60 and wheat up a penny.
    Grains were up more just after the open. Reply With Quote
    Mar 30, 2020 | 09:05 76 A lot of people are only using gas to go to the grocery store.... Reply With Quote
    Mar 30, 2020 | 09:20 77 Check out Kijiji - enterprising folks are offering their old fuel tanks for sale. Stock up on fuel while cheap!
    One asking price of $500 was for an old 500 gallon on a stand! Reply With Quote
    AllisWD45's Avatar Mar 30, 2020 | 09:22 78 Same thing as those old batch dryers in a wet year. Reply With Quote
    Mar 30, 2020 | 09:50 79
    Quote Originally Posted by helmsdale View Post
    Peak oil was indeed a fantasy. Wish I had the contact info for all my old classmates back in ~ '05. I wagered a case of beer with the lot of them that we'd see $20/bbl sooner than we'd see $200. I was thought a dullard...

    That aside, there's still a decent contango play to be had. Ships are being loaded and put to sea stuffed with oil that is sold months out into the futures. The market craters in about 10-14 weeks when storage (both land and sea based) will be used up with current production #'s. SHTF when that happens.
    Your prognosis came true sooner than mine, and I'm not sure I wouldn't have joined your classmates in doubting you.

    When oil first broke down through $100, my colleague and owner of a large oilfield fabrication company was pouring through the production and inventory data every week looking for hope that price would recover, and $100 was normal, under was the exception. I insisted that we wouldn't see $100 oil again for at least 10 years, which at the time seemed a ridiculous assumption, but as of today, looks prophetic. Reply With Quote

  • Mar 30, 2020 | 09:58 80
    Quote Originally Posted by Oliver88 View Post
    Doesn’t Saudi Arabia currently have a tariff on our grain due to Freeland lecturing them?
    Yes and India doesn't like us all that much , since our sneaky asshole of a leader made a complete fool of himself a while back also.

    I think all of the people in this country who voted for Trudeau should get a 75% cut in their salaries just to show them what voting for an incompetent fool gets you for your money. We have a graphic arts designer for a health minister, a journalist for a deputy Prime minister , an astronaut for a transport minister! Just look at the Ag minister, does she even know what a farm is ?

    Poorly thought out in their handling of the country at all levels , and not equipped to do any job they are given.

    They are still in complete denial that the oil and gas sector pays a lot of bills in this country. They just can't seem to put their finger on why their gov't revenues are down for the count, WOW !

    Another thing. I am sick and tired of hearing on the tv about how the oil and gas business only seems to exist in Alberta ! Lots of it going on here in SASK. in case anybody was wondering .

    Low commodity prices are a CANADIAN problem . Not just Alberta. Reply With Quote

  • fjlip's Avatar Mar 30, 2020 | 10:17 81 Finally a bu of wheat is worth more than a barrel of oil...bottled water is more expensive too... Reply With Quote
    Mar 30, 2020 | 10:19 82
    Quote Originally Posted by fjlip View Post
    Finally a bu of wheat is worth more than a barrel of oil...bottled water is more expensive too...
    History tells us that this situation won't last long, so which is going to correct? Not long ago a barrel oil was worth almost 30 times what a bushel of wheat was worth, we don't want to do the math on that ratio today. Reply With Quote
    Mar 30, 2020 | 10:28 83 diesel up 8 cents a litre her this morning Reply With Quote
    fjlip's Avatar Mar 30, 2020 | 14:09 84
    Quote Originally Posted by caseih View Post
    diesel up 8 cents a litre her this morning
    Because they CAN. Or was it Turd's C02 tax early markup? Try mark up your grain...be in jail Reply With Quote
    Mar 30, 2020 | 14:12 85
    Quote Originally Posted by caseih View Post
    diesel up 8 cents a litre her this morning
    What was the excuse ... Reply With Quote