A Game-Changing Crash . . . .

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A Game-Changing Crash . . . .

Mar 16, 2020 | 20:58 181 I know very little about the stock market.
Is all this new money to cover the loss in stocks.
Stocks bought on margin.
Or is it needed to cover payouts on derivatives?
Or both Reply With Quote
Mar 16, 2020 | 21:32 182 Commercial paper is now in freeze-up. The Fed must provide massive liquidity in addition with more problems in the repo market again surfacing. U.S. now heading into a monetary black hole and recession.

Saudi’s flooding global markets with oil. Supertanker rates have shot up more than 650% of-late.

We may hear and see a major shoe or shoes drop in the financial / banking industry. This may lead to financial contagion in North America (IMO).

Gold and bitcoin have been hammered. This broad based meltdown is even too much for even go-to alternate investments.

Interest rate cuts normally just increases consumer debt loads . . . which is the big problem in the first place. Rate cuts now will backfire (IMO) . . . Consumers are hooped and totally tapped out.

Could the Dow lose 50 percent of it’s value? Not out of reason should financial sector continue to unravel. In 2008 financial crisis, the Dow plunged to a low of 6,500 points, more than 1/2 its value.

Coronavirus was the fuse that imploded this burgeoning debt bomb. And it has opened up a gapping hole for market contagion on several fronts. Write offs are inevitable and just beginning to appear.

The pain of cleansing artificially supported markets and the failure of Keynesian economics has begun . . . . Reply With Quote

  • helmsdale's Avatar Mar 16, 2020 | 21:43 183 Discussion on FBN this afternoon...

    Host:"Is helicopter money an inevitability now?"

    Guest:"we're beyond that... its C-130 or C-5 Galaxy time!" Reply With Quote
    Mar 16, 2020 | 21:45 184
    Quote Originally Posted by errolanderson View Post
    The stock market crash this week will have a big impact on attitudes toward easy money, the price paid from Fed manipulation, consumer debt and leverage. Credit markets globally are going to be impacted . . . some may seize-up . . . . much like what happened in 2008. Liquidity problems between lenders is a real risk. This is called the repo market. But this time, supplies chains are also disrupted.

    China produces 90% of the ingredients required for U.S. drug manufacturers. Also, China has clear global control of rare earth metal alloys. This could trigger shortages. The U.S. economy was already struggling, now this. Global commodity markets will be hit hard.

    In my view, the watch is now on credit markets. Credit markets are the inner plumbing. U.S. 10-year treasury yields hit an all-time low of 1.25% today.

    Debt no longer generates growth, it hasn't for a long time. But the Fed kept bailing the market out. Now debt has now become an insidious risk to both consumers and business. And there are no big guns left to save the day from the Fed. Rates cuts now offer what?

    Group; this is history in-the-making and a changing-of-the-guard and attitudes in-progress . . . Buying the dip mentality is clearly old school. For those that have cash in their pocket, there may be massive opportunities ahead (IMO).
    Do you think the Govt will order banks to reduce & limit the amount of cash we can withdraw? Reply With Quote
    Mar 16, 2020 | 22:09 185
    Quote Originally Posted by parsley View Post
    Do you think the Govt will order banks to reduce & limit the amount of cash we can withdraw?
    Pars . . . it’s possible. The current financial crisis is deeper than in 2008. The Fed really has no rounds left in its holster. This is a financial crisis with no vaccine (so to say). Reply With Quote
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  • Mar 17, 2020 | 07:23 186
    Quote Originally Posted by parsley View Post
    Do you think the Govt will order banks to reduce & limit the amount of cash we can withdraw?
    If a federally regulated bank is failing, the bank can legally seize your savings to effect a "bail-in". The Harper government enacted legislation years ago to allow banks to do this.

    Two things will have to happen in order for the equity markets to find a bottom: short term interest rates fall to around negative 2.5% and a rerun of the Troubled Asset Relief Program that will make the 2008 version look like a Sunday school picnic.

    If businesses can get access to capital at negative rates, many money-losers could eke out a profit again. What this means though is that savers subsidize the losses of borrowers. But an economy can't function very long in that scenario. Eventually savers will run out of real capital. We would literally be like a farm which eats all of its seed corn. A Zimbabwe situation would not be far behind. Reply With Quote
    Mar 17, 2020 | 07:44 187 Why are there so many CEOs jumping ship right now when the govt is pumping trillions in? That seems counter intuitive. Eventually that money will get into share prices and those guys will make big bank again.

    In 2008 the govt had to forceably remove some of these bad players. Now we see them resign on their own?

    My radar going off. Reply With Quote
    Mar 17, 2020 | 07:52 188 Insider trading? Reply With Quote
    Mar 17, 2020 | 08:20 189 Austrian, I knew about the legislation. That why I asked about whether they would•, as opposed to whether they could• raid cash. I wasn’t pleased with the legislation at the time. Another socialist scheme to overspend and then rob the responsible folks.

    Morality got flushed when the economy gets feeling• flush. Reply With Quote
    Mar 18, 2020 | 06:54 190 Dow futures not trading again. Locked limit down.
    Anything below 17,600 indicates a very prolonged battle for recovery Reply With Quote
    Mar 23, 2020 | 04:12 191 Cash run on U.S. banks in past 24 hours. U.S. Fed governor interview on 60 minutes stated they won’t allow bills to run out. Money will be printed till the cows-come-home. A lot of mattresses appear being stuffed with cash.

    Fed promotes they have the big weapons ahead . . . they simply don’t. Stock markets may be headed for a 40 to 50 percent collapse (IMO). Stimulus bill stateside (1 trillion dollars) has now yet to be passed.

    Grains holding up well, cattle board appears quite oversold.

    Markets need to take a deep breath for stability to return. Reply With Quote
    Mar 23, 2020 | 08:55 192 The Fed has officially thrown-the-kitchen-sink at the stock market this morning . . . “ QEternity “ . . . and the Dow is still down . . . not good. Reply With Quote
    Mar 26, 2020 | 08:54 193 Jobs data released this morning . . . . A record 3.3 million filed claims for U.S. unemployment this past week. New jobless claims filed seeking unemployment benefits rose by more than three million to 3.28m from 281,000 the previous week. The figure is the highest ever reported, beating the previous record of 695,000 claims filed in October 1982. Reply With Quote
    Mar 26, 2020 | 09:37 194 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NEnuWv38urI

    This unfolding before our eyes ? All points that way
    Last edited by furrowtickler; Mar 26, 2020 at 10:09.
    Reply With Quote
    Mar 26, 2020 | 10:18 195
    Quote Originally Posted by errolanderson View Post
    Jobs data released this morning . . . . A record 3.3 million filed claims for U.S. unemployment this past week. New jobless claims filed seeking unemployment benefits rose by more than three million to 3.28m from 281,000 the previous week. The figure is the highest ever reported, beating the previous record of 695,000 claims filed in October 1982.
    And this news surprised absolutely no one:
    Name:  Dow.PNG
Views: 731
Size:  15.9 KB

    Almost like 2008 period where the market cheered on bad news because it meant more stimulus money and policy, while selling good news, since it could mean the end of the largesse. Reply With Quote
    helmsdale's Avatar Mar 26, 2020 | 10:35 196
    Quote Originally Posted by AlbertaFarmer5 View Post
    Almost like 2008 period where the market cheered on bad news because it meant more stimulus money and policy, while selling good news, since it could mean the end of the largesse.
    The, "Don't fight the fed" mentality is going to take longer to die than many think... From those more knowlegeable than I, a No Bullshit Assessment would be appreciated to this question:

    What is your best guess as to how far they can "kick the can" down the road?

    It was punted far further than I thought was possible post '08. I *feel* like the outcome is inevitable, but it seems delusion is still more powerful than reality! Reply With Quote
    Mar 26, 2020 | 10:40 197
    Quote Originally Posted by AlbertaFarmer5 View Post
    And this news surprised absolutely no one:
    Name:  Dow.PNG
Views: 731
Size:  15.9 KB

    Almost like 2008 period where the market cheered on bad news because it meant more stimulus money and policy, while selling good news, since it could mean the end of the largesse.
    The $2 trillion U.S. Congress corona stimulus may have the shelf-life of a jug-of-milk. Retracement in-progress (usually 50 to 66%) of the crash and then the next shoe classically drops . . . . likely in April. Reply With Quote
    helmsdale's Avatar Mar 26, 2020 | 11:59 198 on DOW:
    50% retracement = 23,891
    60% = 25027
    70% = 26,162

    S&P
    50% = 2793
    60% = 2913
    70% = 3033

    At current levels that leaves upside room of:
    Dow 50%: 1737
    60%: 2873
    70%: 4008

    S&P 50%: 213
    60%: 333
    70%: 453

    Thousand point swings to the upside, with a few gyrations down, put us there early april easily I think. Reply With Quote
  • 1 Like


  • Mar 26, 2020 | 12:24 199 Right now I'm with Errol on this one, 50% retrace. As I also mentioned on another thread the DOW is not something that can be successfully charted over time. It seems to break the rules with striking regularity Reply With Quote
  • 1 Like


  • Mar 26, 2020 | 12:32 200
    Quote Originally Posted by farming101 View Post
    Right now I'm with Errol on this one, 50% retrace. As I also mentioned on another thread the DOW is not something that can be successfully charted over time. It seems to break the rules with striking regularity
    I believe that's because there is no other market with as much manipulation for political purposes. Pardon the pun but politics Trump fair price discovery there. Reply With Quote
  • 1 Like


  • Mar 26, 2020 | 12:35 201
    Quote Originally Posted by errolanderson View Post
    The Fed has officially thrown-the-kitchen-sink at the stock market this morning . . . “ QEternity “ . . . and the Dow is still down . . . not good.




    Getting kinda hard to kick the can down the road.
    Hard to make contact and when you do it doesn't go very far.
    Note the logo on the can. Reply With Quote

  • Mar 26, 2020 | 17:59 202
    Quote Originally Posted by TechAnalyst View Post
    I believe that's because there is no other market with as much manipulation for political purposes. Pardon the pun but politics Trump fair price discovery there.
    Donald Pump doing his best! Reply With Quote
    Mar 26, 2020 | 21:51 203 October, 1929

    The S&P index plunged 34 percent in a month.

    This was followed by a crazy 18 percent two (2) day relief rally.

    Then, the S&P crashed a further 26 percent in next 13 days.

    Eerie resemblance of market cycles repeatIng . . . . Reply With Quote
    Mar 26, 2020 | 22:51 204 Is it too late to say strap in?

    Thankfully, my portfolio is as diverse as it is. If the bulk of it was in ETF's, Mutual Funds and the stock market....I might be looking for a tall tree and a short rope.

    Farmland, farm cash, grain inventory and personal cash values "Trump" my "retirement SAVINGS"....by a long shot.
    Since I was about 20 years old I've been saving money.... in Mutual funds after the wheels fell off the GIC interest rates.
    I've kept track of my deposits and I'm afraid to look if I even have all my initial money I put in to those useless things.
    And I fed the lazy parasites along the way....you know the guys....financial "advisors" and Fund "managers"....both terms used as loosely as possible, who never seem to want to sell "highs" and crystallize some gains but are sooooo quick to encourage buying the crashes and dumping more money into those stingy useless bottomless pits(ETF'S and Mutual Funds). I'm tired of all the old clichéd mantras..... Buy and hold, you can't guess the highs, you can't time the market, buy the dips, inflation is eroding your GICs.... ad nauseum.

    Record high stock markets, a precarious world economy, and Covic-19 about to unleash itself on the world.....
    Should have seen the economic turmoil coming 1000 miles away. When I mentioned sitting in cash(after the fact) to my "Advisor", he laughed at me, maybe he misunderstood the timeline of my comment, I'm not always crystal clear you know!
    Maybe I shouldn't be where I am....RBC Dominion Securities.

    I've endured more "corrections" in the market than my parents ever did, and speaking in relative terms, my parents did better than I did saving for their retirement. It wasn't just how much they invested as how good the returns were!!!
    Remember, in speaking in relative terms.

    This time it might leave a scar. Reply With Quote

  • Mar 27, 2020 | 06:32 205
    Quote Originally Posted by farming101 View Post
    Right now I'm with Errol on this one, 50% retrace. As I also mentioned on another thread the DOW is not something that can be successfully charted over time. It seems to break the rules with striking regularity

    .382 anyone? Reply With Quote
    helmsdale's Avatar Mar 27, 2020 | 11:19 206 There's one hell of a short term racket that the US fed has set up for institutional investors at the moment...

    US treasury is issuing its short term treasury notes at the moment for 0.00%, even though they are trading on the open market at negative rates. Investment banks are buying those treasuries and turning around and re-selling them immediately on the open market for more than the government says they're worth thereby making them into negative return assets... NICE! Literal FREE $$$.

    Also seeing that repo market is essentially failing... The FED has substantially upped their repo funding, but on the other hand their QEternity is straight up purchasing MBS's, and treasuries. Why the hell would you commit to take them back in the short term, when you can simply dump them onto the Fed's balance sheet and recieve cash! At that point, you know full well you're going to be dumping your "questionable" or uncertain securities and holding on to your most solid, so you can unload your possibly toxic shit onto the fed! Damn, these are interesting times indeed! Reply With Quote
    Apr 9, 2020 | 16:03 207 50% retrace in the DOW tried out today. Reply With Quote
    Apr 9, 2020 | 17:59 208 "At the peak of the 2008–2009 recession, the "recent labour underutilization rate" was 12.8%. In March, about a quarter of the potential labour force (23.0%) was unemployed, working reduced hours or recently out of the labour force."

    Stocks always go up.

    It's all priced in. Reply With Quote
    Apr 9, 2020 | 18:45 209 **** the stocks buying guns and ammunition will keep you fed and safe Reply With Quote
    Apr 9, 2020 | 18:46 210 Really, what’s wrong with the F word??? Reply With Quote