A Game-Changing Crash . . . .

[errolanderson]

For those that don’t appreciate my past comments, it’s best not to read any further . . . .




My apologies for touching a raw nerve for some Agrivillers with this week’s sell-off, but we are just in the 1st inning of this correction, meltdown, fallout, collapse . . . whatever you want to call it. A spade is a spade . . . .

‘Buy the dip’ investment community mentality is clearly old school (IMO). The Fed is hooped. Babysitting days protecting bad financial management and debt excessives have not only come-to-roost, they have fallen out-of-the-tree. No central banker can print their way out of this fiat money mess. The Fed may cut rates next week 1/2 percent in sheer panic. Markets may rebound temporarily or not. But rates cuts now will have little impact and make the big picture problem even worse?

Corona pushed these markets over this week, but it was eventually going to happen anyway. We need to do what we can personally to protect ourselves. Debt is insidious if it doesn’t create growth. Canada’s standard of living is now clearly in-decline. Gov’t Keynesian fallout is now upon us all . . ..

[bucket]

For those that don’t appreciate my past comments, it’s best not to read any further . . . .




My apologies for touching a raw nerve for some Agrivillers with this week’s sell-off, but we are just in the 1st inning of this correction, meltdown, fallout, collapse . . . whatever you want to call it. A spade is a spade . . . .

‘Buy the dip’ investment community mentality is clearly old school (IMO). The Fed is hooped. Babysitting days protecting bad financial management and debt excessives have not only come-to-roost, they have fallen out-of-the-tree. No central banker can print their way out of this fiat money mess. The Fed may cut rates next week 1/2 percent in sheer panic. Markets may rebound temporarily or not. But rates cuts now will have little impact and make the big picture problem even worse?

Corona pushed these markets over this week, but it was eventually going to happen anyway. We need to do what we can personally to protect ourselves. Debt is insidious if it doesn’t create growth. Canada’s standard of living is now clearly in-decline. Gov’t Keynesian fallout is now upon us all . . ..

All Good Errol....Just tells us when commodities like fertilizer and fuel are coming down please....

Why do they not get hit with price declines whereas grains do?

[AlbertaFarmer5]

You look at the chart again and you will see in 2015 when Trudeau was first elected the divergence actually began decreasing but in 2016 when Trump got in is when it started accelerating. So that brings in to question your claim as to if it was actually Trudeau or Trump which has been a bigger factor in the divergence.

Both of you are looking at this from the wrong perspective. Government intervention can only do harm, it is the degree of damage that different well intentioned but hapless government policies are able to inflict that is in debate. In the short term ( at least) right now, Trump's policies are doing less damage than his predecessor, Trudeau's are doing more damage than his predecessors( of all parties), likely in all time frames.

[macdon02]

Something to consider

[burnt]

Something to consider

Hmmm, what would a Dow around 15000 do, I wonder?

[TASFarms]

Something to consider

That’s interesting

[macdon02]

This is the most important thing to keep in mind. Print it. Frame it. I suspect we are gonna get price action to suck in both sides. There's a new low coming. This coming week will be better to watch then participate.

[shtferbrains]

Kind of a bit off topic but while watching this meltdown and trying to figure how to get through it with the least damage I ran in to this site;

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/ https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/

Kind of crude and lewd but I find it very entertaining.

Check out and open the tabs for rules of posting. Might be something to look at.

[farming101]

This is the most important thing to keep in mind. Print it. Frame it. I suspect we are gonna get price action to suck in both sides. There's a new low coming. This coming week will be better to watch then participate.

This one often comes to mind:

Cheap is only half way down

[farming101]

Something to consider:

Allied Healthcare Products Inc. was up 1829% at one point on Friday over last week's closing price.
Closed this week up 975% from last week's close.

The company makes respiratory health products that are in short global supply.

It's just crappy investing and poor timing is all

[TechAnalyst]

Something to consider

A picture is worth a thousand words, great contribution macdon.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

A picture is worth a thousand words, great contribution macdon.

It is, but I seem to recall seeing eerily similar graphs presented comparing the depression era markets to the current situation quite regularly in recent decades. How often could one pick the right scale for the two, pick the appropriate starting point on the x and on the y axis, and make a very similar and ominous looking chart?

Not saying it isn't useful and possibly predictive, just that it likely provides a lot false positive correlations before the time it actually is useful.

And comparing the vertical scales, if today's market is expected to follow the same trajectory, it will fall to ~60% of its initial value, versus the depression where it fell to ~17% of its initial value(just roughly eyeballing the chart). Quite a difference.

[TechAnalyst]

A picture is worth a thousand words, great contribution macdon.

I should clarify my post. I am not cheerleading a repeat nor suggesting that we will follow the same path as closely as we have. I certainly hope for all our sake we don't go down that path.

What I was suggesting is that it helps put the dangers facing the market into perspective. That such an outcome should be considered in a risk assessment given some of the serious issues the world is facing.

Ignore history at our own peril.

[macdon02]

They say 99% of all original ideas are wrong, so by default the correlation to '29 is likely a 1% possibility and there's a very good possibility it's "bear bait". It'll be interesting to watch the froth and doom and gloom if a new low is set. I have no opinion at present, I'm ok just watching for now. Gold is saying risk off. So we wait imo.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Part of the point I was trying to make, is that if you scale the two y axis on the same percentage, the current move would be 4 times smaller than it looks. Then, the visual correlation falls apart. And I assume that if you extended either back in time any further we would find that there is a reason why the charts start where they do.