Canola futures/West Coast grain

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Canola futures/West Coast grain

Feb 12, 2020 | 14:08 1 Canola futures prices had the best close in 13 trading days. Trend is still lower but a reach for mid 480's in the July would be encouraging.

Meanwhile GMP says there are 47 ships on the west coast for grain. 11 more expected to arrive by the 16th. 13 cleared this past week.
The last Grain Stats Weekly seems to indicate that G3 Vancouver is receiving grain. Haven't heard anything in the news? Reply With Quote
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  • Feb 12, 2020 | 14:21 2 Grain shipments to Prince Rupert now stalled. Thats the word from local elevator . Our wheat may not be shipped now for a month they said .
    Hopefully something changes ASAP, if this lasts into road ban season it will put a huge strain on many farms already struggling to cover bills . Reply With Quote
    Feb 12, 2020 | 14:26 3
    Quote Originally Posted by farming101 View Post
    Canola futures prices had the best close in 13 trading days. Trend is still lower but a reach for mid 480's in the July would be encouraging.

    Meanwhile GMP says there are 47 ships on the west coast for grain. 11 more expected to arrive by the 16th. 13 cleared this past week.
    The last Grain Stats Weekly seems to indicate that G3 Vancouver is receiving grain. Haven't heard anything in the news?
    Doesn't do us much good if we cant get it there. These blockages are just starting and the police are letting it fester instead of snuffing it out. Reply With Quote
    Feb 13, 2020 | 23:24 4 Any thoughts as to which way demurrage will go this year?

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    Feb 14, 2020 | 02:53 5 Only the Canadian Wheat Board received dispatch which then went to farmers. Seems like you boys need the CWB. Vancouver has near 60 ships waiting well that doesn't matter to grain companies they just increase the basis. Farmers pay for this inefficiency.
    Good luck boys with the grain monopoly in charge you will need it.
    Last edited by Integrity_Farmer; Feb 14, 2020 at 03:00.
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  • Feb 14, 2020 | 08:27 6
    Quote Originally Posted by Integrity_Farmer View Post
    Only the Canadian Wheat Board received dispatch which then went to farmers. Seems like you boys need the CWB. Vancouver has near 60 ships waiting well that doesn't matter to grain companies they just increase the basis. Farmers pay for this inefficiency.
    Good luck boys with the grain monopoly in charge you will need it.
    Since the end of the CWB, grain shipments have set a series of new records. That shows that inefficiencies within crop production and grain handling systems are less than they used to be. The green bar marks the last year with the CWB coordinating exports.
    Regarding the present situation, I wouldn't be surprised if the grain trade is close to claiming force majeure
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    Feb 14, 2020 | 08:32 7 Farmers can't claim force majeur with crop in the field....

    And while exports out of the west coast are growing....dig deeper into the sales and grades....

    Plus train length since 2012....


    There is a lot of factors that have contributed to that export growth ...

    Not saying you are wrong...and not arguing.... Reply With Quote
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  • Feb 14, 2020 | 08:53 8
    Quote Originally Posted by bucket View Post
    Farmers can't claim force majeur with crop in the field....

    And while exports out of the west coast are growing....dig deeper into the sales and grades....

    Plus train length since 2012....


    There is a lot of factors that have contributed to that export growth ...

    Not saying you are wrong...and not arguing....
    I agree. It's complicated. Obviously not everything is running smoothly and producers are loosing out because of some of these aggravating factors. However, it is reasonable to say that not every cost saving or gain in efficiency should automatically be accrued to the primary producer. Not arguing Reply With Quote
    Feb 14, 2020 | 08:57 9
    Quote Originally Posted by farming101 View Post
    I agree. It's complicated. Obviously not everything is running smoothly and producers are loosing out because of some of these aggravating factors. However, it is reasonable to say that not every cost saving or gain in efficiency should automatically be accrued to the primary producer. Not arguing
    True....the only thing I can say is everyone has to be making some profit on this....if it sways too far either way....it can also have lingering effects on the industry as a whole...

    I am not against graincos making money...but occasionally the families have to leave some scraps for farmers....there has to be money for expenses and upgrades on the farm as well....it can't keep coming from equity?

    Further....even if a farmer is astute enough to follow everything in the world....how do you make the required calculations for coronavirus hitting and the hereditary chiefs protesting across canada?
    Last edited by bucket; Feb 14, 2020 at 09:07.
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  • Feb 14, 2020 | 09:35 10
    Quote Originally Posted by bucket View Post

    Further....even if a farmer is astute enough to follow everything in the world....how do you make the required calculations for coronavirus hitting and the hereditary chiefs protesting across canada?
    No one can. There have been countless "Grapes of Wrath" "When The Levee Breaks" events in human history. Some things an individual or entrepreneur can do to withstand tough times do not have a cash value. Look after your health, work hard to maintain a strong family, continually improve your education/knowledge, learn from past mistakes. It forms part of your own personal safety net. Sooner or later it will be there to provide a soft landing Reply With Quote
    Feb 14, 2020 | 10:49 11
    Quote Originally Posted by farming101 View Post
    Since the end of the CWB, grain shipments have set a series of new records. That shows that inefficiencies within crop production and grain handling systems are less than they used to be. The green bar marks the last year with the CWB coordinating exports.
    Regarding the present situation, I wouldn't be surprised if the grain trade is close to claiming force majeure
    Name:  West Grain Exports.jpg
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    Every grain company wants to put more grain through Vancouver. What about Thunder Bay, Rupert and Churchill. When the grain was marketed by the CWB all wheat was moved.

    The 47 ships waiting and Vancouver and another 11 scheduled to arrive is a testament to inefficiency and stupidity.

    The $4.00 a bushel basis (Sask Wheat 2RS) at Vancouver is from inefficiency and robbery. The grain companies only operate for themselves. Reply With Quote
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  • blackpowder's Avatar Feb 14, 2020 | 10:53 12 Ah yes, the myth of the Lost Cause. Reply With Quote
    Feb 14, 2020 | 10:59 13
    Quote Originally Posted by Integrity_Farmer View Post
    When the grain was marketed by the CWB all wheat was moved.
    Baloney Indicator went off again....Ending stocks are trending down in spite of much larger production

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    Feb 14, 2020 | 11:57 14
    Quote Originally Posted by farming101 View Post
    Baloney Indicator went off again....Ending stocks are trending down in spite of much larger production

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    Why the $4.00 a bushel basis in Vancouver Reply With Quote
    helmsdale's Avatar Feb 14, 2020 | 12:00 15
    Quote Originally Posted by Integrity_Farmer View Post
    When the grain was marketed by the CWB all wheat was moved.
    Yea, I wouldn't go around saying that too loudly in the Durum growing areas. Reply With Quote
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  • Feb 14, 2020 | 13:32 16
    Quote Originally Posted by Integrity_Farmer View Post
    Why the $4.00 a bushel basis in Vancouver
    You do realize that $4/bu is about $147/t?
    That inflated figure that has been circulating around for years is not based on reality.
    December customs figures indicate wheat exports for all of Canada not including durum came in at $298.65/t.
    https://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cimt-cicm...thStr=December
    About two-thirds give or take of this year's crop is grading a 2 at port. There is a higher than usual amount of 3 and feed. There is also small amounts of other types of wheat in the 298.65 mentioned above.
    1CWRS 13.5 has been around $225 with #2 about $7 off that and #3 another $20 below that. Your area may be different. An estimate would indicate that the difference between farm gate pricing and that realized at port is about 85-90 for the majority of the HRS this year, with #3 higher at 90-105. I would think feed is higher yet. I feel sorry for areas with no good local market for feed.
    Add up primary elevator charges, administration, rail costs, terminal costs and see if that doesn't seem close.
    Here is an old cost workup from years ago under the CWB.
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    blackpowder's Avatar Feb 14, 2020 | 16:15 17 He's so busy rewriting history, facts are but a mere nuisance. Reply With Quote
    Feb 14, 2020 | 23:34 18
    Quote Originally Posted by farming101 View Post
    You do realize that $4/bu is about $147/t?
    That inflated figure that has been circulating around for years is not based on reality.
    December customs figures indicate wheat exports for all of Canada not including durum came in at $298.65/t.
    https://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cimt-cicm...thStr=December
    About two-thirds give or take of this year's crop is grading a 2 at port. There is a higher than usual amount of 3 and feed. There is also small amounts of other types of wheat in the 298.65 mentioned above.
    1CWRS 13.5 has been around $225 with #2 about $7 off that and #3 another $20 below that. Your area may be different. An estimate would indicate that the difference between farm gate pricing and that realized at port is about 85-90 for the majority of the HRS this year, with #3 higher at 90-105. I would think feed is higher yet. I feel sorry for areas with no good local market for feed.
    Add up primary elevator charges, administration, rail costs, terminal costs and see if that doesn't seem close.
    Here is an old cost workup from years ago under the CWB.
    Name:  CGC historic transportation costs.jpg
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    This is from Sask Wheat they list the basis for 2 RS at $141.46 and 3 RS at $149.34. This basis would include transportation and handling.
    You may want to call Sask Wheat.
    People on here are screaming for price transiency and when someone like Sask wheat provides it they scream at you for posting it.
    https://saskwheat.ca/
    Last edited by Integrity_Farmer; Feb 14, 2020 at 23:39.
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    Feb 15, 2020 | 06:41 19
    Quote Originally Posted by Integrity_Farmer View Post
    This is from Sask Wheat they list the basis for 2 RS at $141.46 and 3 RS at $149.34. This basis would include transportation and handling.
    You may want to call Sask Wheat.
    People on here are screaming for price transiency and when someone like Sask wheat provides it they scream at you for posting it.
    https://saskwheat.ca/
    IF why would you reference this again when you chose not to respond to invitations for comment the last time?
    https://www.agriville.com/threads/39...rewing-farmers
    Would you please comment on the values I linked to in the above post?
    https://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cimt-cicm...thStr=December
    Do you understand the role of the Canadian International Trade Database? Have you done research as to where the values posted to the website originate and what they reflect regarding actual value of export goods?
    https://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cimt-cicm...&mode=concepts
    Have you researched the export basis research carried out by the Grain Monitoring Program since 2002?
    http://grainmonitor.ca/reports.html#AnnualReports Reply With Quote
    Feb 15, 2020 | 09:37 20
    Quote Originally Posted by Integrity_Farmer View Post
    This is from Sask Wheat they list the basis for 2 RS at $141.46 and 3 RS at $149.34. This basis would include transportation and handling.
    You may want to call Sask Wheat.
    People on here are screaming for price transiency and when someone like Sask wheat provides it they scream at you for posting it.
    https://saskwheat.ca/
    The question is where does Sask Wheat get their numbers as their price for wheat appears to be anywhere from 35 dollars per tonne for the U.S. to almost $70 a tonne for Indonesia to high. Obvious grade variability but the point remains where does Sask Wheat get their price? Is Statscan in cahoots with the grain companies? Reply With Quote