Baltic Dry Index (Ocean Freight)

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Baltic Dry Index (Ocean Freight)

Jan 24, 2020 | 12:49 1 Tumbling . . . . Baltic Dry down nearly 4% today alone and now at lows not seen since April 2016. This reflects the cost of shipping goods around the world. Heavy commodity price pressure globally right now. Reply With Quote
Jan 25, 2020 | 09:12 2 Sell-off being led by king of commodities ‘crude oil’ . . . . WTI crude has pulled back nearly $12 per barrel since assassination of Iran general.

Shippers were optimistic that the Phase One Trade Deal signing would buoy ocean freight values. But a quiet China and now coronavirus have ocean freight rates tanking.

Monday stock markets are apt to come under further pressure as even the massive liquidity push by the Fed may be getting long-in-the-tooth. Just when I thought I’ve seen everything in markets I’m my career, I haven’t.

Markets ahead may be written up in the history books . . . . Reply With Quote
Jan 25, 2020 | 09:19 3 China buys Australian wheat, catches trade off guard..... Reply With Quote
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  • Jan 25, 2020 | 09:35 4 China buys grain from Australia ....a country that is currently importing wheat from Canada....Or is it Australian wheat from Canada????


    Its sort of like the longer route the canola is taking....


    And people ask why do we need sales reporting in Canada???? Reply With Quote

  • Jan 25, 2020 | 09:45 5 China was in last year to Canada to buy a shitload of wheat that hardly made news after the fact....


    China bought 1.5 million tonnes of wheat from Canada from August 2018 through April 2019, nearly double the pace of a year earlier and the most since 2004-05, according to Canadian Grain Commission data Reply With Quote
    Jan 26, 2020 | 06:52 6 https://www.agricensus.com/Article/C...ard-10279.html Reply With Quote
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  • ajl
    Jan 27, 2020 | 08:55 7 Trust the chicoms to buy wheat from the highest price supplier in the world. They do that a lot. I'm sure they could have gotten similar product from canuckistan at 2/3 the price. The chicoms bought into the oil sands at their 2013 high as well so savy investors they are not. Does look like the chicoms are not planning to make good on their commitments under phase 1 and thus cut their own threats. Might as well prepare the tariffs Mr. President. Reply With Quote
    Jan 29, 2020 | 08:10 8 Massive copper selloff in-progress . . . . Copper prices plunging 10% in the past week, largest weekly plunge in decades. Copper or Dr. Copper is viewed as the bellweather indicator of global economic health. China consumes 50% of global supplies.

    This has contributed to the swift drop in ocean freight. You don't want to own a container ship these days.

    This is a huge warning to equity markets (IMO) . . . . Reply With Quote
    Jan 29, 2020 | 08:26 9 I will believe you when fertilizer starts to come down in price along with fuel and all other inputs....

    Why isn't everything suffering like the grain markets. ...oh yeah that's right .....mosaic and nutrien had a collusion conference call and shuttered two potash mines for the foreseeable future....colonsay and vanscoy. ....

    Inputs are not dropping....why not?

    If ocean freight is down then there is no logical reason to increase prices on inputs.....grains are going down even though with the lower freight rates a importer could buy more??????
    Last edited by bucket; Jan 29, 2020 at 09:00.
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  • Jan 29, 2020 | 10:23 10
    Quote Originally Posted by errolanderson View Post
    Massive copper selloff in-progress . . . . Copper prices plunging 10% in the past week, largest weekly plunge in decades. Copper or Dr. Copper is viewed as the bellweather indicator of global economic health. China consumes 50% of global supplies.

    This has contributed to the swift drop in ocean freight. You don't want to own a container ship these days.

    This is a huge warning to equity markets (IMO) . . . .
    This drop in global commodities also warns of a possible sudden decline in precious metal prices, barring geo-political tensions (ie: gold and silver) on deflationary pressures. Realize this is contrary to all the internet chatter out there. It's a crazy economic world out there . . . . Reply With Quote
    Jan 29, 2020 | 11:08 11 So my micro nutrient package with copper will be cheaper? Reply With Quote
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  • ajl
    Jan 29, 2020 | 16:22 12
    Quote Originally Posted by bucket View Post
    So my micro nutrient package with copper will be cheaper?
    NTR stock has taken quite the beating the past couple of trading sessions so all is not well in the fertilizer market. Reply With Quote
    Jan 29, 2020 | 22:52 13 Heavy selling pressure in Asia tonite. Shanghai down nearly 3 percent, Nikkei index off nearly 2 percent.

    North American markets setting up for heavy selling tomorrow in both commodities and equities. Reply With Quote
    Jan 29, 2020 | 23:58 14
    Quote Originally Posted by errolanderson View Post
    Heavy selling pressure in Asia tonite. Shanghai down nearly 3 percent, Nikkei index off nearly 2 percent.

    North American markets setting up for heavy selling tomorrow in both commodities and equities.
    So the question remains...are inputs to the farm going down like the commodities produced on them? Reply With Quote
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  • biglentil's Avatar Jan 30, 2020 | 00:54 15
    Quote Originally Posted by errolanderson View Post
    This drop in global commodities also warns of a possible sudden decline in precious metal prices, barring geo-political tensions (ie: gold and silver) on deflationary pressures. Realize this is contrary to all the internet chatter out there. It's a crazy economic world out there . . . .
    Comparing oil and copper (consumables) to gold is like comparing apples to oranges. Gold does great in a deflationary environment and in an inflationary environment. It doesn't do well when everything is stable and peachy.
    Last edited by biglentil; Jan 30, 2020 at 08:39.
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  • Jan 30, 2020 | 10:51 16 Commodities yikes! . . . lean hog collapse, copper, ocean freight fallout continues, soybeans breaking major support . . . . gold and silver power up on wall of worry. Reply With Quote
    Jan 30, 2020 | 12:04 17
    Quote Originally Posted by errolanderson View Post
    Commodities yikes! . . . lean hog collapse, copper, ocean freight fallout continues, soybeans breaking major support . . . . gold and silver power up on wall of worry.
    Canola , wheat and most others have taken a beating as well .
    Oh , fertilizers and other inputs going up here while in the US there inputs are dropping ie : fuel and fertilizer. Reply With Quote
    Jan 30, 2020 | 12:07 18 Errol is not worried about 5G, sounds like he is more worried about the 3 G’s -Gold, Guns, and a Getaway. Reply With Quote
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  • Jan 30, 2020 | 14:30 19
    Quote Originally Posted by errolanderson View Post
    Commodities yikes! . . . lean hog collapse, copper, ocean freight fallout continues, soybeans breaking major support . . . . gold and silver power up on wall of worry.
    Errol what do you think will turn this around, my personal opinion is the concern over the coronavirus is over blown but maybe I am wrong. Feeder cattle off a bit this week as well. Certainly a bad day for canola. Reply With Quote
    biglentil's Avatar Jan 30, 2020 | 15:01 20
    Quote Originally Posted by Hamloc View Post
    Errol what do you think will turn this around, my personal opinion is the concern over the coronavirus is over blown but maybe I am wrong. Feeder cattle off a bit this week as well. Certainly a bad day for canola.
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    Or the response has been too little too late, and the consequences under blown. I'm not worried one bit about the sell off it grains, fear over the next 18 months could drive the prices higher than we have ever seen. Throw the TA out the window, this is a black swan event. Lock the ****in bins and throw away the key.
    Last edited by biglentil; Jan 30, 2020 at 15:17.
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    Jan 30, 2020 | 15:31 21 Little resistance to gold heading higher. Closes above the Jan 8 high should open up further gains.
    A failure to reach the Jan 8 high by Feb 8 could result in a retracement before upward moves resume.
    Timing is good. Reply With Quote
    Jan 30, 2020 | 15:35 22
    Quote Originally Posted by biglentil View Post
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    Or the response has been too little too late, and the consequences under blown. I'm not worried one bit about the sell off it grains, fear over the next 18 months could drive the prices higher than we have ever seen. Throw the TA out the window, this is a black swan event. Lock the ****in bins and throw away the key.
    biglentil . . . markets always react poorly to rising emotions. WHO has now declared a global emergency, which suggests more potential fallout near-term for commodities.

    The hog fallout caught a lot of attention today. Soybeans broke key support of $8.85/bu on the March contract, which caught my eye. Brutal close today . . . weekly chart points toward $8.55/bu on the beans, which unfortunately suggests further near-term pressure on ICE canola futures.

    This is a global broad-based selloff now in-progress. It will spill into equities (IMO). Reply With Quote
    helmsdale's Avatar Jan 30, 2020 | 16:38 23
    Quote Originally Posted by errolanderson View Post
    This is a global broad-based selloff now in-progress. It will spill into equities (IMO).
    Honest to god, so long as there are two computers left to bid against one another, the developed world could be a radioactive wasteland and the damned market would still be setting new records. Reply With Quote

  • Jan 31, 2020 | 01:47 24 Delayed re-opening of Chinese financial markets to next Monday, Feb 3 have Asian traders on-edge.

    This market Lunar holiday re-start may be a serious test for global equities and commodities next week.

    Expect docile VIX to potentially awaken . . . . Reply With Quote
    Jan 31, 2020 | 08:17 25 I dont understand how an event which could disrupt supply chains sends the product in that supply chain down? Harder to get raw commodities should raise their perceived value. Something is not right. Reply With Quote
    Jan 31, 2020 | 08:23 26 Group, my apologies for being so yappy right now, but much news flowing in that impacts us . . . .

    Sunday nite will be key . . . China financial markets re-open. Talk that Yuan may be under heavy pressure. That will be bearish U.S. exports to China. Cotton, soybeans are in the gunsights. Long term soybean chart show a line at $8.40/bu, Chicago traders have brought that to our attention. Many traders will either just want to square up today, or get out of their long positions.

    Copper down for 13 straight trading sessions . . . Crude oil has plunged 14% of-late . . . a broad-based selloff.

    If you do own new crop canola put options, hug 'n hold. Taking a profit is tempting, but price protection is more important.

    Nov Cdn GDP was slightly better than expected released this morning, but fallout in commodities will remain a drag on our loonie (IMO). Key support is 75 cents U.S.

    This situation will be a drag on western Cdn cash prices. Barley holding firm. Green peas showing cracks.

    If you do have price protection . . . hold it. Markets and emotions still remain too unstable. Reply With Quote
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  • Jan 31, 2020 | 08:30 27 Can you answer why inputs are not being dragged down....

    Fuel at the pumps hasn't moved. ...it's a commodity like grain...

    Fertilizer is going up.... Reply With Quote
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  • Feb 3, 2020 | 09:47 28 Ocean container freight rates remain in freefall . . . .

    Baltic Dry index now around 450 points, this compares with 2,500 points last Sept. Collapsing global commodity values and lack of shipping demand have ships dry-docked looking for any business to maintain shipping routes. Ocean freight losses accelerating.

    China stock indexes locked limit down (8.7%) despite government banning short selling and injecting billions in overnight stimulus. When the game doesn't go your way, you just change the rules . . . .

    Meanwhile . . . back at the ranch . . . the Dow is up more than 300 points today. There is apparently nothing to see here. Reply With Quote
    Feb 3, 2020 | 09:51 29 Good ..... chinese glyphosate should be going down in value since it doesn't cost as much to get it here....

    Hahaha....funny how entire chinese cities are shut down with little vehicle traffic and the price of gas can stay up....along with little ocean freight according to Errol.....wondering why fuel inputs are not coming down as fast as grains????? Reply With Quote
    ajl
    Feb 3, 2020 | 10:05 30
    Quote Originally Posted by errolanderson View Post
    Ocean container freight rates remain in freefall . . . .

    Baltic Dry index now around 450 points, this compares with 2,500 points last Sept. Collapsing global commodity values and lack of shipping demand have ships dry-docked looking for any business to maintain shipping routes. Ocean freight losses accelerating.

    China stock indexes locked limit down (8.7%) despite government banning short selling and injecting billions in overnight stimulus. When the game doesn't go your way, you just change the rules . . . .

    Meanwhile . . . back at the ranch . . . the Dow is up more than 300 points today. There is apparently nothing to see here.
    ALL of the money that the folks who sold first got is headed to US markets pushing them even higher. What is also interesting is that no one is talking about the US federal deficit these days. When the dust settles the US is likely to have smaller deficits as tariff revenue comes in to service the deficit and then US markets will go higher and higher thus generating more revenue for the treasury. Game, set and match: USA. Reply With Quote