Zeihan Calgary

Commodity Marketing


Zeihan Calgary

Jan 17, 2020 | 09:24 1 Props to AF5 and macdon for digging up this speech from last spring. There are some very critical pieces in here so I encourage people to listen a couple times.


1. Unless infrastructure to our oil sands is built pronto, that resource is going to be beat by US shale and lose value and perhaps be stranded so that clock is ticking.
2. Transfer pmts are only going to go up and there will be no consideration from Ottawa because the are trying to fund an aging population in Quebec and soon Ontario. And we have no say in that policy.
3. AB has no good options. Suck it up in Canada and get bled, go independent while the cost of production of oilsands is higher than shale and could upend that market, or join the US and get a market for the product but probably get shafted somehow in the process.
4. Canadas social contract will not last. It is unsustainable with the revenues available without some extreme measures.
5. Our special relationship with the US is over and Canada is in no position to take a globalist stance without the US at our back.

edit; One other I missed. IF we are to strike a deal with the US, that window has a short life as well. 2-6 yrs and it will be closed forever.
Last edited by jazz; Jan 17, 2020 at 09:42.
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