Who Do I Believe?

[zeefarmer]

When I read things on Agriville, I get the feeling that most believe western Canadian agriculture as we know it is poised to fall apart at the seams. That the days of yor were the best ever and one should get out while the getting's good.

Then I hear about local land happenings, and think that the individuals involved must not frequent Agriville often.

So, who's right?? Should a young(er) guy like myself cut and run, or push all in?

[hobbyfrmr]

When I read things on Agriville, I get the feeling that most believe western Canadian agriculture as we know it is poised to fall apart at the seams. That the days of yor were the best ever and one should get out while the getting's good.

Then I hear about local land happenings, and think that the individuals involved must not frequent Agriville often.

So, who's right?? Should a young(er) guy like myself cut and run, or push all in?

Very good observation and question. I think most of AV posts balance out. It is hard to decide what the future will bring. The primary producers on AV vocalize the real problems in Ag. At least you are now aware of them. If you push all in, be prepared to make a 20 year commitment. There is a positive life management aspect to farming but I think there is a big cash premium to pay for it. I think so many years in the industry makes a person jaded. At least that is how I see it.
It looks like the economies of scale are working well “around here”. Land prices are still high, plenty of modern machinery and good farming practices over years seems to be a recipe for success.
Note: I have tried to lay off my sarcasm when posting.

[jazz]

So, who's right?? Should a young(er) guy like myself cut and run, or push all
in?

Well nothing ever falls apart overnight but boiling frogs and all that.

We face some huge obstacles that could grind this business, collapsing trade, high costs, expensive and unreliable transport and former 3rd world countries standing ready to eat our lunch. Add in zero govt support and here we are.

To counter this, people have expanded but how far can you expand especially after a fall like this.

And those prices are locked. We had a weather disaster here and prices barely moved. So what will move them? Probably nothing. So that hope is lost.

[farmaholic]

Zee, Rome wasn't built in a day, you don't have to build an empire overnight either.

I found that paying attention to what was happening on my side of the fence was better for me and realized the grass isn't always greener on the other side...even if it looked like it was.

Using modest machinery and paying down debt early helped. Being incorporated earlier probably would have helped too. Too many years I seemed to use low tax personal living income to help pay for the farm...of course that meant personal sacrifice. You can build a farm quicker with corporate after tax dollars than with personal after tax dollars....especially if those personal dollars are taxed at the higher personal rates above what you need to live and raise a family. Living income and farm debt repayments are made from net income....keep as much as you can to build your empire and "manage" the "deferred" tax later.

I always valued Richard5's input and opinions...he seems to have a good handle on this stuff.

[blackpowder]

Only you know your operation.
I was told several times to quit by the experts.
Bear in mind Wienerville mostly jaded old men.

[furrowtickler]

When I read things on Agriville, I get the feeling that most believe western Canadian agriculture as we know it is poised to fall apart at the seams. That the days of yor were the best ever and one should get out while the getting's good.

Then I hear about local land happenings, and think that the individuals involved must not frequent Agriville often.

So, who's right?? Should a young(er) guy like myself cut and run, or push all in?

I would not cut and run, nor would I push all in.
More younger farms have failed going all in than not. And that is after 10-12 decent years.
The risk is now extremely high, and rewards are slim and far and few between.
The younger farms that will do well, will have grow different crops, more on farm marketing of those crops and or livestock

[farmaholic]

Only you know your operation.
I was told several times to quit by the experts.
Bear in mind Wienerville mostly jaded old men.

Lol, I think I've been here to long. You seem to know me too well even though we've never met.

ps, you forgot "cynical".

[zeefarmer]

Zee, Rome wasn't built in a day, you don't have to build an empire overnight either.

I found that paying attention to what was happening on my side of the fence was better for me and realized the grass isn't always greener on the other side...even if it looked like it was.

Using modest machinery and paying down debt early helped. Being incorporated earlier probably would have helped too. Too many years I seemed to use low tax personal living income to help pay for the farm...of course that meant personal sacrifice. You can build a farm quicker with corporate after tax dollars than with personal after tax dollars....especially if those personal dollars are taxed at the higher personal rates above what you need to live and raise a family. Living income and farm debt repayments are made from net income....keep as much as you can to build your empire and "manage" the "deferred" tax later.

I always valued Richard5's input and opinions...he seems to have a good handle on this stuff.

Not looking to build Rome. Heck, 3% of what Monette does would make me happy. Machinery wise, we're alot leaner than most, as the picture shows. Probably too scared of debt, but come by that honestly. Dad nearly lost his little bit in the 80's.

As a small youngish guy, I can't/refuse to compete with the rents and land prices that are in our area. My pencil just isn't that sharp, and I'd like to make a little $$.

I admit, it's hard not to watch the neighbours. I watch so I can make myself better by learning from others.

It's hard not to watch when they start moving into my garden though.
Loosing 30% of the land we've been farming, and having people back out on their words and agreements are tough to swallow. Opportunity is few and far between.

[Sheepwheat]

It is a tough question because every farm is so very different. Some are struggling to pay for last falls inputs, some have fertilizer ordered and paid for for 2020, grain in the bins, holidays booked.

I think it depends on many factors. Again, I will say there are so many types of farms, ways to farm, different stages of farms, different fortunes of late. Some guys have had tremendous crops, some simply haven’t. Friend of mine with 160 bushel oats at 3.50 is pretty happy and raring to go. The guy who had 60 bushel oats due to hail etc, is pretty disgruntled indeed. Some guys have wives with good jobs, some don’t. Some have the backing of lots of land, some have very little.

It is therefore impossible to assume anything, to make blanket statements, because there is scarcely anything similar farm to farm, other than they are farms!

Around here, the guys going hard are the ones who have had little hardship. The funniest or saddest thing is most guys complain, even if well heeled and raring to go. There are some of those on here! Lol

You just gotta look at your farm, and do what works I guess?

[farmaholic]

Every area has it's vultures.

Do what you can and what you're comfortable with. We never bit off alot more than we could chew at one time either.

Some vultures may NOT make it either.

I jokingly said we have some of the laziest capital around. If the right land came up for sale in the right place and not even maybe the right price....I would probably think about buying it. Not for my career anymore but the Apprentice's.

I like to think farm size in somewhat incremental according to machinery size and capability....even the area the farm is located dictates how much land a set of machinery can comfortably handle.

There is no "one size fits all".

Best of luck zeefarmer, I hope you have a long successful career so you can get jaded and cynical like me. Those are my positive qualities.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

If anyone is using Angryville as a gauge of farmer sentiment and optimism, they will be sorely misled. I get the impression most just use this as a place to vent. And those with the least to complain about are the most vocal and negative, and vise versa.

Like you say, in regards to land prices etc. look at what your fellow businessmen are doing, not what they are saying. There still appears to be unbridled optimism in agriculture, judging by the investments. Which in itself may mean it is still not time to be investing, from a contrarian point of view.

I too, as a youngish producer, trying to build an operation from a very modest start, have a tough time reconciling the almost universally negative sentiment on here, or even from my neighbors, vs. our own financial situation, and my own optimistic outlook. I expect it is like most things, there is a silent majority just quietly going about building their businesses without all the drama, and a very vocal minority who attract most of the attention.

[zeefarmer]

I hope you have a long successful career so you can get jaded and cynical like me. Those are my positive qualities.

Well, ten years ago I guess I was optimistic, now I guess I'm optimistic and cynical. I wonder what that leads to in 10 years from now? My wife will be so impressed.......

[ajl]

Are you young and have good job prospects? Pull the pin. The high cost of land is a signal that there is no opportunity. Every opportunity that exists has players competing over it. I farm marginal land because there is no opportunity to get the better stuff as I have not inherited any of it. If you can inherit some good land you can leverage it for more. Combine marginal land with the worst weather this area has seen for the past number of years and returns to production are minimal at best. What keeps me going is being 50 with poor job prospects as I don't have any in demand unique skills and few contacts. Most farmers are in that boat as well, they, just think themselves more valuable than they are. Most farmers are land speculators and returns on land speculation have been spectacular as governments print money and that is what drives most investment decisions. Most of the money I made over 20 years of farming has been land inflation even though I don't own a large land base. Things do happen over the years like getting an oil well which has helped a lot of farmers over the years including me on one occasion. The high flyers all have secrets to their success and it has little to do with hard work and good farming. Right place at right time is a lot of it. Guys farming across the road from me used to own that land, now investors do. 4 JD S680 combines look impressive in the field together though. Guys have gotten land from relatives etc. so there are all sorts of secrets to success. I have over the years learned a few of these and as I said earlier it is never better production practices or hard work.

[Quadtrack]

Interesting question zeefarmer. And some good advice from others.
I know it’s tempting, but one really has to not look at what some of the BTO are doing and pine for that. Pretty sure it’s not all sunshine and rainbows. Several around me are on marriage 2, or 3 or none. Not that a successful marriage is essential for a successful life, but for some of us it’s highly important. As is our relationship with our children.
Who do you believe? You have to believe in yourself and have a long term belief in what you are doing. Personally, I have much more satisfaction in owning some land, and having paid for it, than renting thousands of acres and leasing a bunch of equipment and orchestrating a van load of employees to operate it all. You just gotta decide what really your goals are and how to achieve them. Or try to achieve them-it doesn’t always go as planned.
Successful farmers (and people) I’ve observed commonly know what they want and have a plan to get there. And they stay somewhat nimble, so as to adjust or change course if needed. I think a number of BTO have got themselves on a treadmill that is going faster and faster and it’s not easy to jump off. Maybe that’s success for them? Not for me.
Best of luck to you, and stay in primary agriculture if you truly like it.

[Guest]

And it kinda grows on you after awhile , and you cant imagine doin anything else !