Markets- soybeans, canola,corn, wheat

Commodity Marketing

Tools

Markets- soybeans, canola,corn, wheat

Nov 1, 2019 | 07:40 31 In 2019 Canola has once again turned into a hot potato. 1.4 mmt in the system with over a million in the primary elevator system.

No need to bid it up and it isn't going to slow down coming to town. Thus the lower values both futures and cash the last little bit.
Even though there will be over 1 mmt stranded in the field for quite some time and of an unknown quality the industry won't concern itself about that till it has to, if ever.

price trend, sideways Reply With Quote
  • 1 Like


  • Partners's Avatar Nov 1, 2019 | 08:53 32 Viterra rep.says the company has sold very little canola going into jan and feb.. Reply With Quote
    Nov 5, 2019 | 15:31 33 See wheat is refusing to lie down. Not a runaway price wise but supportive seems we’re as beans corn seem to have downside and want to push lower.

    Wheat almost punching above it weight as they say Reply With Quote
    Nov 5, 2019 | 16:17 34
    Quote Originally Posted by farming101 View Post
    In 2019 Canola has once again turned into a hot potato. 1.4 mmt in the system with over a million in the primary elevator system.

    No need to bid it up and it isn't going to slow down coming to town. Thus the lower values both futures and cash the last little bit.
    Even though there will be over 1 mmt stranded in the field for quite some time and of an unknown quality the industry won't concern itself about that till it has to, if ever.

    price trend, sideways
    Have been selling $10.90 here aug del , not bad ?
    And $2.90 oats from combine , sept
    Last edited by caseih; Nov 5, 2019 at 16:23.
    Reply With Quote
    Nov 5, 2019 | 16:26 35
    Quote Originally Posted by caseih View Post
    Have been selling $10.90 here aug del , not bad ?
    What? Marketing talk in a marketing forum? Reply With Quote
    biglentil's Avatar Nov 5, 2019 | 16:44 36
    Quote Originally Posted by caseih View Post
    Have been selling $10.90 here aug del , not bad ?
    And $2.90 oats from combine , sept
    Is that direct to crush plant? Reply With Quote
    helmsdale's Avatar Nov 5, 2019 | 17:37 37
    Quote Originally Posted by farmaholic View Post
    What? Marketing talk in a marketing forum?
    Don't goad them into finding an article relating current market struggles to climate change... Reply With Quote
    ajl
    Nov 5, 2019 | 17:50 38
    Quote Originally Posted by farming101 View Post
    In 2019 Canola has once again turned into a hot potato. 1.4 mmt in the system with over a million in the primary elevator system.

    No need to bid it up and it isn't going to slow down coming to town. Thus the lower values both futures and cash the last little bit.
    Even though there will be over 1 mmt stranded in the field for quite some time and of an unknown quality the industry won't concern itself about that till it has to, if ever.

    price trend, sideways
    Some of that 1 mmt will be coming off tonight if the combines start and will join the millions of tons of damp canola currently sitting in grain bags. -22 here tonight will get the snow dry enough to get blasted out of the combine. -22 is not enough though to set a record low for this date in Vegreville. That was -23.4 set two years ago. How cold does it have to be to keep the green weinies happy? Anyways as this canola is dried and comes to market that will be enough to kill market rallies for quite a while. Reply With Quote
  • 1 Like


  • Nov 5, 2019 | 17:52 39
    Quote Originally Posted by farmaholic View Post
    What? Marketing talk in a marketing forum?
    Sorry , will try to stick to left agenda Reply With Quote
    Nov 5, 2019 | 17:52 40
    Quote Originally Posted by biglentil View Post
    Is that direct to crush plant?
    Yes to bunge
    Oats -RP Reply With Quote
    Nov 5, 2019 | 17:58 41
    Quote Originally Posted by ajl View Post
    Some of that 1 mmt will be coming off tonight if the combines start and will join the millions of tons of damp canola currently sitting in grain bags. -22 here tonight will get the snow dry enough to get blasted out of the combine. -22 is not enough though to set a record low for this date in Vegreville. That was -23.4 set two years ago. How cold does it have to be to keep the green weinies happy? Anyways as this canola is dried and comes to market that will be enough to kill market rallies for quite a while.
    Good luck ajl !!
    Check your top sieve lots but that glowbull warming temp you are experiencing in early nov. should be enough to keep ice off
    If only those assholes knew what we go through so they can eat Reply With Quote
    GDR
    Nov 5, 2019 | 17:59 42
    Quote Originally Posted by ajl View Post
    Some of that 1 mmt will be coming off tonight if the combines start and will join the millions of tons of damp canola currently sitting in grain bags. -22 here tonight will get the snow dry enough to get blasted out of the combine. -22 is not enough though to set a record low for this date in Vegreville. That was -23.4 set two years ago. How cold does it have to be to keep the green weinies happy? Anyways as this canola is dried and comes to market that will be enough to kill market rallies for quite a while.
    Not sure you could find a swath here today, almost a foot of new snow. Reply With Quote
    Nov 6, 2019 | 03:03 43 Drought induced or enough malt barley n the world.

    Currently only a $10 premium malt barley over feed and only $3 for malt 2

    Best to sell direct of farm to end user will be in front.

    Haven’t started harvest here yet getting closer 5 to 7 days

    Sarcasm humour intended but fark it’s cold hrefor harvest weather been about 17c all day should be 25 plus it’s November Reply With Quote
    Nov 6, 2019 | 05:23 44
    Quote Originally Posted by malleefarmer View Post
    Drought induced or enough malt barley n the world.

    Currently only a $10 premium malt barley over feed and only $3 for malt 2

    Best to sell direct of farm to end user will be in front.

    Haven’t started harvest here yet getting closer 5 to 7 days

    Sarcasm humour intended but fark it’s cold hrefor harvest weather been about 17c all day should be 25 plus it’s November
    Broker here reports a malt deal on 13500 bushels @ $5.10, I don't know how that compares to the specs of Oz Malt 2 though. I would think good premium malt is as rare as unicorns in Western Canada. Reply With Quote
    Nov 6, 2019 | 05:53 45 Local elevator quote for Metcalfe malt variety is $4.77 bushel, $3.03 for feed. Reply With Quote
    Nov 6, 2019 | 08:01 46
    Quote Originally Posted by macdon02 View Post
    On Minneapolis, I'm watching Chicago for guidance. Nothing much happening till the new year, then i would want July futures somehow if you don't want to use a brokerage account. Really need Chicago to close over 535 roughly, we were close last December. There's a story but it'll take time. CAD should top out at 78 then reverse. Look to move on Feb/ March delivery but roll into July. I grew zero wheat this year so I'm just at the top of the bleachers. We need uzzdah to have the come to jesus moment and say we have a problem. They won't do it overnight. Baby steps.
    How would you handle this using a brokerage? Reply With Quote
    Nov 9, 2019 | 05:05 47 World barley production in 2019/20 is projected to be the highest since 1994/1995. Exportable supplies of barley are plentiful across the globe. USDA forecasts world exports of barley in 2019/20 at 28.0 MMT, a 9 % increase over last year and the third-highest on record Reply With Quote
    Nov 9, 2019 | 08:17 48
    Quote Originally Posted by malleefarmer View Post
    World barley production in 2019/20 is projected to be the highest since 1994/1995. Exportable supplies of barley are plentiful across the globe. USDA forecasts world exports of barley in 2019/20 at 28.0 MMT, a 9 % increase over last year and the third-highest on record
    Definitely a big barley crop in the prairies since it was one of the first crops harvested.
    (Unlike canola which several million acres will be harvested in spring.)

    A larger than normal % of it is feed though. Reply With Quote
    Nov 9, 2019 | 14:58 49 Feed barley slumping harvest ain’t really started. $235 on farm basically $40 fall since late sept.
    Wheat still healthy $285 on farm. Canola $550 Reply With Quote
    Nov 9, 2019 | 17:38 50 Feedlot barley bids delivered southern Alberta are quite firm. There is a pickup in placements and of course cold weather supports demand. Lethbridge-area feeders now contracting around $225/MT ($4.90/bu) for Nov/Dec movement. For Jan/Feb, delivered bids approaching $230/MT ($5/bu) heard.

    Export market fairly quiet. China business is apt to pick up in the new year. Reply With Quote
    Nov 11, 2019 | 06:54 51
    Quote Originally Posted by Sodbuster View Post
    So with the lower wheat planting numbers, and what looks like a pile of feed wheat coming off this fall and next spring in Canada and the US, why is Chicago wheat gaining ground on MPLS wheat? Is there a abundance of good quality somewhere?
    Pure supply demand fundamentals are "bullish" compared to Minni and KC, although looking at export inspections this past week for soft wheat,it appear the market is doing its job in trying to destroy demand for soft wheat. Reply With Quote
    Nov 11, 2019 | 08:50 52
    Quote Originally Posted by HappyFarmer View Post
    Pure supply demand fundamentals are "bullish" compared to Minni and KC, although looking at export inspections this past week for soft wheat,it appear the market is doing its job in trying to destroy demand for soft wheat.
    An anomaly. SRW exports 216,300 Mt ahead of last year.
    Gulf bids are higher than last year but ending stocks are forecast to be down a fair bit. So exports will likely trail off a lot as the marketing year progresses.
    Quite a lot more than the total production of SRW is traded every day in Chicago. Chicago is not really a great price discovery tool for SRW Reply With Quote
    Dec 3, 2019 | 21:00 53 World is awash of wheat....

    Will the futures, basis price or currency be the factor to push HRS wheat higher when it does finally improve? Reply With Quote
    Dec 3, 2019 | 21:37 54
    Quote Originally Posted by Sodbuster View Post
    So with the lower wheat planting numbers, and what looks like a pile of feed wheat coming off this fall and next spring in Canada and the US, why is Chicago wheat gaining ground on MPLS wheat? Is there a abundance of good quality somewhere?
    Big question is if quality wheat with Falling Numbers >300 rally? Reply With Quote
    Dec 3, 2019 | 22:14 55 Canada feed

    Name:  20190904_160128-1.jpg
Views: 513
Size:  95.4 KB Reply With Quote
  • 2 Likes


  • Dec 3, 2019 | 22:56 56
    Quote Originally Posted by farmaholic View Post
    Canada feed

    Name:  20190904_160128-1.jpg
Views: 513
Size:  95.4 KB
    Are you kidding me? I think it is finally time to stop growing HRS and grow garbage with the rest of them. Reply With Quote
    Dec 4, 2019 | 00:27 57 First off was fairly fortunate as we got our Brandon wheat off in good shape considering the fall. Was all binned in the 15.2 to 15.5 moisture range. Took samples to various grain companies and they agreed with the moisture levels. It all graded #1 and #2. Falling number ranged from 315 to 369. The kicker was protein ranged from 10.8 to 11.1. Most prices quoted around here are $6 to $6.40 for top grading hard red wheat. The protein discount in most places is $1.20 for 11 protein wheat. With freight, protein discount and drying it 1 point it pencils out to just under $5. So I sold it all into the feed market for $5.48 at the bin. There is a 8 cent deduction for grain testing between 15 and 16. So far have shipped 2 loads, 1 tested 15 and the other 14.7. Grain was binned for 7 weeks in bins with Gatco tubes in them. Overall fairly disgusted with the grain companies and their pricing. Very sad when #1 wheat brings more as feed. Reply With Quote
  • 1 Like


  • Dec 8, 2019 | 16:34 58 Stating to think Australian harvest over estimated all commodities except barley Reply With Quote
    Dec 12, 2019 | 12:44 59 Haven’t read market comments but seems all green, Reply With Quote
    Dec 12, 2019 | 13:35 60
    Quote Originally Posted by Hamloc View Post
    First off was fairly fortunate as we got our Brandon wheat off in good shape considering the fall. Was all binned in the 15.2 to 15.5 moisture range. Took samples to various grain companies and they agreed with the moisture levels. It all graded #1 and #2. Falling number ranged from 315 to 369. The kicker was protein ranged from 10.8 to 11.1. Most prices quoted around here are $6 to $6.40 for top grading hard red wheat. The protein discount in most places is $1.20 for 11 protein wheat. With freight, protein discount and drying it 1 point it pencils out to just under $5. So I sold it all into the feed market for $5.48 at the bin. There is a 8 cent deduction for grain testing between 15 and 16. So far have shipped 2 loads, 1 tested 15 and the other 14.7. Grain was binned for 7 weeks in bins with Gatco tubes in them. Overall fairly disgusted with the grain companies and their pricing. Very sad when #1 wheat brings more as feed.
    and i have 17 protein going the same place because of .04 ss
    its a ****ing joke Reply With Quote