Canadian Barley Exports

[rain]

Charlie we have export a little over 1 million toone of barley this year. What is the likely hood of moving the rest of the forecasted level. With 14 weeks left we need to average about 93,000 tonne a week to export 2.4 MMT of barley?

[charliep]

I get the national supply demand tables that go along with the March 31 stocks report. To the end of March, Canada had exported about 1.1 MMT of barley and 350,000 tonnes of malt product. Total of close to 1.5 MMT. In the last 4 months of the crop, the CWB has to export a combined 900,000 tonnes of barley/malt product to achieve this target. During April, only 100,000 tonnes of barley was exported (not data on malt product). Wouldn't hold my breath on hitting this target - malt barley exports remain slow and my guess is deliveries to the CWB will dry up (domestic market is paying a much higher price than the CWB currently).

As another note, the Statistics Canada domestic feed consumption estimate for the first 8 months of the crop year is 6.4 MMT. The domestic consumption same period last crop year (drought/imported corn) was 5.5 MMT. Normal year consumption (if there is such a thing) is about 7.5 MMT. The next 4 months on the domestic side are the real wild card. How many calves in feedlots?