How much has been lost????

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How much has been lost????

Sep 11, 2019 | 07:38 1 How much has this rain cost western canadian farmers....

My guess is easily a billion dollars in downgrades and lost crop...

Canola might even out for lowering green counts but then the price will go down...

Tough grain will be a real problem...

But its early ...is what the crop report will say this week... Reply With Quote
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  • Sep 11, 2019 | 07:47 2 What’s the price from a 1 to a feed , add that up by average yields on 80% of the crop still out .... and that’s just wheat .
    This is on top of already horribly low 1970’s prices .
    Yes grades held somewhat last year , but it was -5 every night from about this same time till mid October.... to cold to sprout . Much different scenario right now Reply With Quote
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  • Sep 11, 2019 | 07:51 3 I can see inputs/seed, machinery/parts and elevation/handling going way downNOT! Reply With Quote
    Sep 11, 2019 | 07:53 4 How much did we loose before harvest even started? Prices were garbage at the start and are going to drop further. Reply With Quote
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  • Sep 11, 2019 | 08:08 5 The law of diminishing returns.....2016 we sold red lentils off the combine at 30 cents barely an extra 3 ...

    Today we get 16.5 cents for #2reds....but its been done in steps so you can never see the effect...sort of like frog boiling...

    Dad bought a combine in 1975 for 36000 dollars and we still got the harvest done in reasonable time frame...


    The same combine costs 20 times that and wheat is worth less than in 1975...My fuel bill is more than that 1975 combine and I don't put anywhere near the hours on machinery than we did back then,,,and equipment at rest does not emit pollution..

    We are so fu cked for being told we should feed the world... Reply With Quote

  • Partners's Avatar Sep 11, 2019 | 08:10 6 Maybe it's time to swath it all..let it rot in the fields and collect crop insurance?
    Will be more net dollars than fighting with muck grain just to get feed anyway..
    Growing cereals might be a thing of the past..just when we thought to increase them because of stupid canola seed prices.. Reply With Quote
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  • Sep 11, 2019 | 09:38 7 Maybe a billion dollars in crop quality is pretty accurate.

    But Canada has lost 1000 times more than that having skippy in charge. That will be hard to recover from. Reply With Quote
    Sep 11, 2019 | 09:49 8 If elevators couldn't fill a train before the rain...how the **** are they going to fill one after it?????

    We will sit for a week minimum now.... Reply With Quote
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  • Sep 11, 2019 | 11:07 9 we got another 1/2 inch this morning Reply With Quote
    Sep 11, 2019 | 12:40 10
    Quote Originally Posted by bucket View Post
    The law of diminishing returns.....2016 we sold red lentils off the combine at 30 cents barely an extra 3 ...

    Today we get 16.5 cents for #2reds....but its been done in steps so you can never see the effect...sort of like frog boiling...

    Dad bought a combine in 1975 for 36000 dollars and we still got the harvest done in reasonable time frame...


    The same combine costs 20 times that and wheat is worth less than in 1975...My fuel bill is more than that 1975 combine and I don't put anywhere near the hours on machinery than we did back then,,,and equipment at rest does not emit pollution..

    We are so fu cked for being told we should feed the world...
    One thing I don't get is that we are told we need a seed tax to increase yields, that not enough is being spent on research. All grain prices are in the tank right now because everybody is predicting a large crop. Why should we spend more to grow more and receive less!?!? Reply With Quote
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  • farmaholic's Avatar Sep 11, 2019 | 12:52 11
    Quote Originally Posted by Hamloc View Post
    One thing I don't get is that we are told we need a seed tax to increase yields, that not enough is being spent on research. All grain prices are in the tank right now because everybody is predicting a large crop. Why should we spend more to grow more and receive less!?!?
    This isn't being persued for Primary Producer's benefit, but we are going to pay for it! Reply With Quote
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  • fjlip's Avatar Sep 11, 2019 | 13:11 12 Come on Climate Emergency, destroy more crops, shortages to teach consumers about hunger? Reply With Quote
    Sep 11, 2019 | 13:23 13
    Quote Originally Posted by jazz View Post
    Maybe a billion dollars in crop quality is pretty accurate.

    But Canada has lost 1000 times more than that having skippy in charge. That will be hard to recover from.
    What absolute nonsense you post. That would imply a $1 Trillion loss due to Trudeau. Canada's total GDP rose from only $1.55 Trillion in 2015 to $1.7 Trillion in 2018 so where did your fictitious $1 Trillion loss come from? Reply With Quote
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  • Sep 11, 2019 | 14:20 14
    Quote Originally Posted by grassfarmer View Post
    What absolute nonsense you post. That would imply a $1 Trillion loss due to Trudeau. Canada's total GDP rose from only $1.55 Trillion in 2015 to $1.7 Trillion in 2018 so where did your fictitious $1 Trillion loss come from?
    Hundreds of billions of dollars in lost investment, resource revenue, cancelled projects, money fleeing.

    Want me to add it up for you grass.

    Lost resource revenue - TMX and Energy east. canola. easy $50B
    Lost opportunity cost not closing the heavy differential with export capacity easy $50B
    NGL plant cancellations - $200B
    Investment leaving the country $250B
    Extra debt added since election $125B Reply With Quote
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  • Sep 11, 2019 | 17:46 15 In answer to the thread starting question, I hate to say it, but far, far less than most think. I have lived through swamp conditions, and to be frank, if the crops are standing, not much will occur. Swathed sure, lots of hurt. Canola will be just fine, in fact, more than fine. the talk of bushel weight loss from rain is especially puzzling; maybe for 27 years I have been exceptionally lucky to not have weights lowered because of rain.

    There is LOTS of time. And besides, feed wheat prices are darn close to milling prices anyway if you shop around. If you KNOW your crops have gone to feed quality, I would be booking some in now!

    I am completely serious, and do not mean to belittle this weather, or the concerns over its effects. I can see how if this is an unusual occurrence, rain during harvest, it could be concerning. But this is just typical for us, and a far greater concern is frost in the next two weeks or so...

    Chin up guys, it truly is not as bad as you may currently think...

    Cheers Reply With Quote
    Sep 11, 2019 | 18:07 16
    Quote Originally Posted by Sheepwheat View Post
    In answer to the thread starting question, I hate to say it, but far, far less than most think. I have lived through swamp conditions, and to be frank, if the crops are standing, not much will occur. Swathed sure, lots of hurt. Canola will be just fine, in fact, more than fine. the talk of bushel weight loss from rain is especially puzzling; maybe for 27 years I have been exceptionally lucky to not have weights lowered because of rain.

    There is LOTS of time. And besides, feed wheat prices are darn close to milling prices anyway if you shop around. If you KNOW your crops have gone to feed quality, I would be booking some in now!

    I am completely serious, and do not mean to belittle this weather, or the concerns over its effects. I can see how if this is an unusual occurrence, rain during harvest, it could be concerning. But this is just typical for us, and a far greater concern is frost in the next two weeks or so...

    Chin up guys, it truly is not as bad as you may currently think...

    Cheers
    Agree on most , but .... do the math on “milling” prices now from last year . Even feed . That drop in price was the thin profit margin .... its gone .
    Prices down at least a dollar a bushel or more for last year . Add in higher inputs and extra tax’s .... that’s the point .. Reply With Quote
    fjlip's Avatar Sep 11, 2019 | 18:08 17 Our canola swaths sat 40 days last year, and in crap weather Sept 8- Oct 4, all #1, very little dry of course till AFTER we got done. Larry shows little % in swath this year, 2010 and 2014 way more acres in swath, that makes feed grades. Hell in my career, remember combining swaths that were growing and GREEN easily seen from cab! Yes all feed. Not a pea /lentil expert up here. Agree sadly prices are same as 70's with 10 times the input costs! Ah the good old days, but we never knew it then.
    Last edited by fjlip; Sep 11, 2019 at 18:11.
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    Sep 11, 2019 | 18:14 18 Bushel weight losses occur in oilseeds when they are dried down ready to harvest and then get an extended wet spell. Took a hit to flax in '16 and canola last year. (Still graded a 1)
    If still curing when it rains no loss Reply With Quote
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  • Sep 12, 2019 | 07:05 19
    Quote Originally Posted by jazz View Post
    Hundreds of billions of dollars in lost investment, resource revenue, cancelled projects, money fleeing.

    Want me to add it up for you grass.

    Lost resource revenue - TMX and Energy east. canola. easy $50B
    Lost opportunity cost not closing the heavy differential with export capacity easy $50B
    NGL plant cancellations - $200B
    Investment leaving the country $250B
    Extra debt added since election $125B
    Thanks for the laugh Jazz. So you get called out and you make up a bunch of numbers that don't even add up to the claim you were called out for. And if you are going to make up numbers at least make up numbers that are not so easily fact checked. For example, your 125 B extra debt you claimed Trudeau added. Statscan publishes the federal debt numbers monthly, and there are lots of debt clocks that mirror that information on line so not hard to check debt added. Debt oct 2015 613.269 B Debt currently 694.476. The extra debt added is not the 125 B you claim but 81.207B. Math must be hard for you.

    Lets do one more for fun. YOu claim investment leaving the country is 250B. 2017 was the worst year for net FDI since 2010 and it came in at a negative 4 billion. But then you probably did not want anyone to look at inflows of foreign investment into Canada. For if they did they would see that last year FDI into Canada rebounded above the 10 year average. And Jazz, how much of that outflows you claim were due to low world oil prices and to Trumps opposition of NAFTA, neither which Trudeau controls. Name:  bc-foreign-investment-hits-3-year-high-in-canada-despite-oil-woes.jpg
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    You claim to be a smart guy. Prove it by providing facts to back your claims rather than made up guesses and BS Reply With Quote

  • Sep 12, 2019 | 07:21 20 Harper was in power from 2006 - 2015. He sure caused foreign investment to drop after he came to power! LOL

    Facts don't matter to the hyper partisans like Jazz. Trump has shown that it is okay to make up lies based on "alternate facts". Jazz is just following his example. Reply With Quote
    Sep 12, 2019 | 07:30 21
    Quote Originally Posted by chuckChuck View Post
    Harper was in power from 2006 - 2015. He sure caused foreign investment to drop after he came to power! LOL

    Facts don't matter to the hyper partisans like Jazz. Trump has shown that it is okay to make up lies based on "alternate facts". Jazz is just following his example.
    How’s the solar powered aeration fan working these past 5 days ? Just curious Reply With Quote
    Sep 12, 2019 | 07:37 22
    Quote Originally Posted by dmlfarmer View Post
    You claim to be a smart guy. Prove it by providing facts to back your claims rather than made up guesses and BS
    Don't claim anything but the truth.

    Skippys debt doesn't stop with his ousting Oct 21 if that happens. It continues on for yrs until some govt can get a handle on it. Add his debt promises this summer and you are well over $100B.

    And Chinese buying Vancouver homes doesn't replace multi billion dollar projects being scuttled.

    $50M dollars a day lost on TMX probably a same number on EE. A tide water pipeline would have closed that heavy differential by $10. Hundred of billions in LNG cancelled projects. It all there if you want to look. But its not reported on.

    Canada is literally a trillion dollars poorer in the past 4 yrs.

    Name:  Macleans-Budget-Deficits-01.jpg
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    Sep 12, 2019 | 07:40 23 JT became Liberal leader in 2013 and PM in 2015, the decline in foreign investment from 2013 is constant decline. The slight uptick in 2018, I’d like to see the underlying reason. I am very suspicious of statistics that are generated, much like some of the recent polling. 👁 Reply With Quote
    Sep 12, 2019 | 07:43 24
    Quote Originally Posted by chuckChuck View Post
    Harper was in power from 2006 - 2015. He sure caused foreign investment to drop after he came to power! LOL

    Facts don't matter to the hyper partisans like Jazz. Trump has shown that it is okay to make up lies based on "alternate facts". Jazz is just following his example.
    Harper steered this country through a near depression and left skippy a $2B dollar surplus just 5 yrs later.

    I would be interested to see what skippy does when the next recession comes but it would be the end of the country so I don't like to think about it. We would be like Greece having to sell islands to stay solvent.

    Hope he is out before it happens. Reply With Quote
    Sep 12, 2019 | 07:45 25 Looks like Jazz has the Trudeau fan club distracted for a while.

    The Northern Gateway Pipeline will be another project that Trudeau’s legacy of fleeing capital will get credit for.
    How many billions will this cost Canada over the next 20 years? Reply With Quote
    Sep 12, 2019 | 08:55 26
    Quote Originally Posted by jazz View Post
    Don't claim anything but the truth.

    Skippys debt doesn't stop with his ousting Oct 21 if that happens. It continues on for yrs until some govt can get a handle on it. Add his debt promises this summer and you are well over $100B.

    And Chinese buying Vancouver homes doesn't replace multi billion dollar projects being scuttled.

    $50M dollars a day lost on TMX probably a same number on EE. A tide water pipeline would have closed that heavy differential by $10. Hundred of billions in LNG cancelled projects. It all there if you want to look. But its not reported on.

    Canada is literally a trillion dollars poorer in the past 4 yrs.
    You are too funny. The office is wondering if we can share some of your "factual" posting with a political satire TV show so all of Canada can enjoy. I mean to base your debt numbers on projections rather than actual data is priceless.

    And just wondering, since you claim future debt must be credited to Trudeau, why are you blaming Trudeau for no pipelines when it was on Harper's watch that Northern Gateway (mid 2000's), Keystone XL (2008) TMX (2013) and Energy East (2014) were initiated. Seems the Conservatives could not get these done on their watch so why are you blaming Trudeau?

    And given 2017 was the only year that FDI was below the 10 year average and you consider this an economic crisis of Trudeau's making, why was it not a problem when the FDI was below the 10 year average in 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014 under Harper; and in fact even worse numbers than the Trudeau numbers.

    And if you discount the impact of low world oil prices during Trudeau's leadership, do you blame Harper for the 2009 crash and debt he incurred rather than the world wide economic recession? Reply With Quote
    Sep 12, 2019 | 09:00 27 The slight uptick in investment is only because foreign money is coming in buying up companies for pennies on the dollar. This isnt investment its a fire sale. Reply With Quote
    Blaithin's Avatar Sep 12, 2019 | 16:47 28 The frost a couple weeks ago probably did more damage than this rain. At least around me. The rain has delayed everything, yeah, and put it more at risk, but it probably hasn’t done that much to quality yet. Unless your grain is lying in swaths and sprouting.

    Crops are so far behind here that hardly anything is swathed though. Next to no wheat has even been touched and there’s some barley done, but not much swathed and lying around. Perhaps we should blame the politicians for the shitty spring, poor germination, cooler summer and the fact that nothing was ready to combine when the weather was still on our side. Reply With Quote
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  • fjlip's Avatar Sep 12, 2019 | 17:30 29 Too dry and COLD in spring, and summer and STILL COLD! Camping in July heard many days camper furnaces running in morning. Furnace running every day now! Everyone needs to be aware...Libs, Greens, NDP ALL want less CO2= COLDER, because heat will kill us all in 12, 11, 10...Years, McKenna knows probably the day we all die.
    Last edited by fjlip; Sep 12, 2019 at 17:32.
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    Sep 12, 2019 | 18:35 30 I would assume most wheat was getting close to harvesting so the grain buyers will have their X-ray goggles on looking for mildew and sprouts. Sounds like it doesn’t take a lot of sprouts to go from a 1 to a 3. Reply With Quote