Can anyone tell me what happens when....???

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Can anyone tell me what happens when....???

Jul 13, 2019 | 07:45 1 The first moisture was April 27 with a small snow event...

Seeded into drying ground all of may....

And the rain came On June 19 ...50 some days after the snow event with a few 30 plus days during that period...

The last rain was on June 27 around here...and it doesn't look like there is any rain in the 10 day forecast...

So that would be 25 days without more moisture ...the crops that are headed out are blueing....

The later crops that look better have used up the June rains....

How does this end???? Reply With Quote
Jul 13, 2019 | 08:21 2 Wondering the same thing.
3.5 inches of what I would call beneficial rains spread over 9 events.
Some fields where there is good growth are very dry. Others still have some reserve.

My take on our prospects: Wheat and Barley will hang on and make a poor to fair crop. Good chance both will be feed because they are too uneven.

Canola has gone through most of the moisture that fell just to get where it is now. Flowering under way on the stuff that came up when seeded. The rest that emerged late(maybe 20-30 percent, some in patches and some interspersed) is functioning as a weed. No good rains in the next 10 days = 15-30 bpa for our fields Reply With Quote
Jul 13, 2019 | 08:59 3 I hate to be the barer of bad news but it doesn’t end well. My experience with “88”is the crop had good germination but then the over plus 30 degree days with wind for weeks and only a 1/2” rain June 23rd. The best wheat and barley were around 15b/Ac. The crop was a ft.tall and you would have to quit combining at dark because you would not see a 50’ double swath. Sorry but this is the result. Reply With Quote
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  • Jul 13, 2019 | 09:06 4 Has to be a bumper other wise why haven’t the markets moved? Reply With Quote
    Jul 13, 2019 | 09:19 5
    Quote Originally Posted by AC man View Post
    I hate to be the barer of bad news but it doesn’t end well. My experience with “88”is the crop had good germination but then the over plus 30 degree days with wind for weeks and only a 1/2” rain June 23rd. The best wheat and barley were around 15b/Ac. The crop was a ft.tall and you would have to quit combining at dark because you would not see a 50’ double swath. Sorry but this is the result.
    Wish there was a “dislike” feature that’s what the above comment would get.
    I remember 88, and yes it was ugly.
    We are fortunate to be in better shape, had an inch last Sunday, was thinking we didn’t need anymore for a while but now with the warmer days ahead it was a blessing.
    We are 6.5- 7 inches in the last month. Reply With Quote
    Jul 13, 2019 | 09:31 6 We have enough moisture to make , question is if we have enough time. There was heavy fog last night and this morning and temps were fairly warm. Isnt there some old wives tale about fog and first frost, like 6-8 weeks later?
    Last edited by jazz; Jul 13, 2019 at 09:39.
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    Jul 13, 2019 | 09:37 7
    Quote Originally Posted by jazz View Post
    We have enough moisture to make , question is if we have enough time. There was heavy fog last night and this morning nut temps were fairly warm. Isnt there some old wives tale about fog and first frost, like 6-8 weeks later?
    Hope thats not the case but the fog was so heavy my house windows fogged over. Reply With Quote
    helmsdale's Avatar Jul 13, 2019 | 09:39 8
    Quote Originally Posted by jazz View Post
    We have enough moisture to make , question is if we have enough time. There was heavy fog last night and this morning and temps were fairly warm. Isnt there some old wives tale about fog and first frost, like 6-8 weeks later?
    Full moon Aug 15, then Sept 13... Reply With Quote
    Jul 13, 2019 | 09:56 9
    Quote Originally Posted by helmsdale View Post
    Full moon Aug 15, then Sept 13...
    And Drew is saying there will not be an extended growing season. You just know it because of all the cool nights we have had and few hot days. Reply With Quote
    Jul 13, 2019 | 10:11 10 Sooooooo....agristability will kick in????? Bang.... thump !!!!!








    Don't worry I'm OK,,,,fell off my chair laughing... Reply With Quote

  • SASKFARMER's Avatar Jul 13, 2019 | 11:54 11 You can see in the April seeded wheat on the south side of the valley has yellow or lighter areas. Moisture stress on good dirt. They have been missing most showers.

    I personally think we need a drink soon as crop will slip backwards fast. Heat needed to push it along.

    Face it it’s a shit show year what you get is what you get.

    Ag stab works


    Hahahahhahhahahahah

    Yea I wrote two checks for the farm for over 220000 after the frost years back to them.

    It works so great. Puke gag Reply With Quote
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  • Jul 13, 2019 | 12:00 12
    Quote Originally Posted by helmsdale View Post
    Full moon Aug 15, then Sept 13...
    Sept 15 will be ok here
    Aug 15 will see farmers jumping off bridges here Reply With Quote
    farmaholic's Avatar Jul 13, 2019 | 12:05 13
    Quote Originally Posted by SASKFARMER View Post
    Ag stab works


    Hahahahhahhahahahah

    Yea I wrote two checks for the farm for over 220000 after the frost years back to them.

    It works so great. Puke gag
    The best assessment of Ag$tab I ever heard was on this site...

    Someone called it an "audit" program. Yup pretty much what it is. And a hell of a way for Gov to monitor participating farm's financial needs and health.

    SF, first of all why did you drop the "3"? And secondly, after the frost year, your crops and/or margins(from selling the grain) must have been better than what you included on your report.

    With all the accrual accounting tracking I can see how they could ask for money back. I had to repay some from the 04 frost event too.

    In a way its nothing more than a forensic financial audit. Reply With Quote
    Jul 13, 2019 | 12:42 14 It was intended to top you up in bad years. I don’t know how else they can do that without prior prod’n and financials to create prior year margin to compare to. ( Just trying to be fair). And I can’t speak to anything after 2011 when it went to Melville as I have not been involved since then. Reply With Quote
    farmaholic's Avatar Jul 13, 2019 | 12:53 15 Can't disagree with your "assessment" sumdumguy....unless you re-assessed my 04 claim. Lol 😁 Reply With Quote
    helmsdale's Avatar Jul 13, 2019 | 14:05 16
    Quote Originally Posted by caseih View Post
    Sept 15 will be ok here
    Aug 15 will see farmers jumping off bridges here
    Aug 15 would be brutal. Highly unlikely I would think? I looked them up thinking if it was in the last week of august we'd have trouble. I'd have peas to maturity, and early durum would likely get branned...

    Sept 13 most things I have would make it, but many guys are hoping that the second growth will make the crop. If it gets cooked mid-september, that'll cut production in half or more on those acres. Reply With Quote
    Jul 13, 2019 | 16:30 17
    Quote Originally Posted by farmaholic View Post
    TSF, first of all why did you drop the "3"?
    Maybe he is thinking there wont be a SF4 so no need to keep track anymore. Reply With Quote
    Jul 13, 2019 | 16:43 18 If I remember Bucket yo said you don't grow Canola but you have some cattle.

    In 2002 here the crop was real thin and short and regrew from tillers off the main plant, especially oats.

    When harvested the stuff out of the back of the combine made good feed and the cows liked it.

    It was pea green. The harvested oats were so light they were only worth about 2 cents a lb, less than hay price. Many quit thrashing them and wanted them baled but too late in the season to dry.

    If you need feed you might want to check out where you might rent a bale wrapper in case your area turns out that way.

    Make the best of the worst. Reply With Quote
    Jul 13, 2019 | 19:17 19 Isn't that what crop insurance is for?

    I don't use it other than for the corn we grow but I looked at one of our quarters to theoretically grow canola on this year. Probable yield is 38.9bu for this quarter, $value for coverage is $10.89/bu if you take 80% coverage the premium was $5.05/acre giving you $338.88/acre coverage if you have a total loss. Having this kind of protection surely mitigates a lot of the risk, no? Reply With Quote

  • Jul 13, 2019 | 19:34 20 It's great for a single quarter but because the whole farm each commodity. ..it sucks. ... Reply With Quote
    farmaholic's Avatar Jul 13, 2019 | 19:34 21 Grassman. That premium sounds very low to me. Maybe Manitoba is different. I have hail insurance costing me $10.80/ac for a crop surcharged 2.75 the basic rate.(yellow mustard)

    Hail insurance on Canola here is $5.60.

    These are hail insurance rates....not crop insurance rates.

    Last year when I looked into getting into crop insurance with out any experience discount the premium was $24.11 for 80% on a Ghetto J soil with an area yeild of 37.7 bu/ac. Coverage was $318.06/ac.

    Edit in....that hail insurance information is worthless without telling you what the indemnity is...."$200/ac"
    Last edited by farmaholic; Jul 13, 2019 at 20:55.
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    Jul 13, 2019 | 20:52 22
    Quote Originally Posted by bucket View Post
    It's great for a single quarter but because the whole farm each commodity. ..it sucks. ...
    You'll have to explain that to me. Isn't it the case if you had 10 quarters of canola and 10 of wheat you'd get the same coverage on the canola and whatever the rate is for wheat on the wheat acres. If you had total loss on the 10 quarters of canola you'd get the full amount per acre on all 10? If 2 quarters were total loss and the other 8 were a normal crop you wouldn't get anything - but you've got 80% of a normal crop and you're only out the cost of the premium. I don't see why that sucks unless I'm not understanding how it works. Reply With Quote
    farmaholic's Avatar Jul 13, 2019 | 21:04 23 Its an odds game grassy. Actuaries have it all figured out. Remember, insurance is meant to limit loss not be profitable.

    As far as I know you can't over insure with plain crop insurance like you can with hail insurance. Unless you want to really gamble and do crop insurance and GARS and any other company that will insure you.
    But you won't be farming long if you do.

    The more acres you have and spread out they are the less chance you have of being completely wiped out.

    I wonder if some of the big time BTOs have separate contracts for the different areas they farm in. Say they are in three areas 200 kms apart from each other...is that one contract or three seperate contracts. I bet concessions are made! Reply With Quote
    Jul 13, 2019 | 21:24 24 I buy insurance for every vehicle ....if one gets wrecked they don't say you have three others to use....

    Every quarter should be treated as a stand alone entity no matter the crop....otherwise the crop insurance bill should be substantially lower....but currently I pay full rate on every quarter ...then it should insured as such.... Reply With Quote

  • Jul 13, 2019 | 21:35 25
    Quote Originally Posted by bucket View Post
    The first moisture was April 27 with a small snow event...

    Seeded into drying ground all of may....

    And the rain came On June 19 ...50 some days after the snow event with a few 30 plus days during that period...

    The last rain was on June 27 around here...and it doesn't look like there is any rain in the 10 day forecast...

    So that would be 25 days without more moisture ...the crops that are headed out are blueing....

    The later crops that look better have used up the June rains....

    How does this end????
    Not well for ya, but if you follow twitter and see all the people spraying fungicide on beautiful crops, it'll be a normal year for most. Reply With Quote
    Jul 13, 2019 | 21:53 26
    Quote Originally Posted by grassfarmer View Post
    Isn't that what crop insurance is for?

    I don't use it other than for the corn we grow but I looked at one of our quarters to theoretically grow canola on this year. Probable yield is 38.9bu for this quarter, $value for coverage is $10.89/bu if you take 80% coverage the premium was $5.05/acre giving you $338.88/acre coverage if you have a total loss. Having this kind of protection surely mitigates a lot of the risk, no?
    We have $445 coverage , about $12 premium here in sask Reply With Quote
    Jul 13, 2019 | 22:10 27
    Quote Originally Posted by bucket View Post
    I buy insurance for every vehicle ....if one gets wrecked they don't say you have three others to use....

    Every quarter should be treated as a stand alone entity no matter the crop....otherwise the crop insurance bill should be substantially lower....but currently I pay full rate on every quarter ...then it should insured as such....
    When sask party was in opposition they cried how terrible the ndp were for not changing crapinsurance to be individual quarters. Another lie I guess. Can’t have something actually work for farm families there wouldn’t be a need for input cap or Chinese land investors and middlemen getting kickbacks to set it all up. Reply With Quote
    Jul 13, 2019 | 22:31 28 Individual quarter coverage would be great, but how do you do it feasibly? How do you prevent abuse? How do you bin every quarter separately?

    How could we make it feasible? I just don’t see a way to do it... Reply With Quote
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  • Jul 13, 2019 | 22:44 29
    Quote Originally Posted by Sheepwheat View Post
    Individual quarter coverage would be great, but how do you do it feasibly? How do you prevent abuse? How do you bin every quarter separately?

    How could we make it feasible? I just don’t see a way to do it...
    You think there isn’t abuse now? The ones that want to do it are doing it. Look at who’s getting agristability payments and then going broke right away you think that’s not planned?

    Easily could be paid for by scrapping agrishitabilitly. Making coverages more reflective of today’s yield potential not 10’years ago. We re paying for new canola seed and covering it with the old canola seed yields. In a year like this with al kinds of different maturity and condition of fields it would be beyond valuable.
    You liked grip didn’t you? Every bin was measured.
    Technology is very near to assessing yields by satellite very accurately. Should be persued. Reply With Quote
    farmaholic's Avatar Jul 13, 2019 | 23:01 30
    Quote Originally Posted by caseih View Post
    We have $445 coverage , about $12 premium here in sask
    See caseih, what have I been telling everyone! .....Ghetto!
    , Reply With Quote