Market Direction?

Commodity Marketing

Tools

Market Direction?

Jul 10, 2019 | 07:58 1 Out of interest I looked this morning back at the bids that are emailed to me from one company. For CPS wheat the highest price I could get for Oct-Dec was on June 14 at $6.48. The price today for that same period is $5.69, a drop of $.79. For CWRs wheat the highest price was also on June 14 for the Oct-Dec period at $7.13. The price today for Oct-Dec is $6.46, a drop of $.67. For canola the highest price was on June 18 at $10.19 for Dec-Jan delivery. The price today is $9.56 for Dec-Jan, a drop of $.63. Back in June the dominent story was delayed corn and soy plantings in the U.S. and very dry conditions in western Canada. The corn story seems to have changed with more optimistic yield scenarios but the crop is a couple weeks behind. Western Canada has had rain return to many but not all areas. Just wondering where everybody sees the market going from here? We are ok for moisture here but it has been probably a week and a half since any measurable rain so rain wouldn't hurt. Having said that I would like to cut some hay but it has been cold and humid and the hay wouldn't dry if I did cut it. The 2 week forecast going forward has 1 day out of 14 above historical average, the rest are below. Enjoy your day. Reply With Quote
Jul 10, 2019 | 08:59 2 Will not be shorting new crop canola for a bit here. Any pull back will be treated as an extremely risky buy opportunity. We'll see....

This is not advice Reply With Quote
Jul 10, 2019 | 09:02 3 The canola crop isn't there....this year....and there isn't the carryover the industry is trying to promote... Reply With Quote

  • Jul 10, 2019 | 09:21 4 August/September U.S. weather premiums may build. Corn remains a sleeper. Crop is very late . . . .

    For those wanting to stick-their-toe into the long side, (cash replacement strategy), November canola $450 calls may trade @ $10/MT or lower. September corn $4.60 calls @ 10 cents/bu. Reply With Quote
  • 1 Like


  • Jul 10, 2019 | 10:27 5 Considering the delayed start both countries have, ours due to dryness, US due too wet to seed, our weather market may not occur until closer to fall. With every frost or snow scare, the markets may respond. And just like the short weather market we got last month, it will likely be just as sharp and fleeting unless the problems turn out to be real. Reply With Quote
    Jul 10, 2019 | 11:00 6 1 more month and I feel the market will have to move out of this ridiculous low end ......... I hope Reply With Quote
  • 1 Like


  • Jul 10, 2019 | 11:46 7 My myopic view of the canola crop is that it isn’t any screaming hell whether in the dried out areas or even areas like mine that did get adequate moisture. It looks good from the road but walk through it and it tells a different tale. Was at the crusher other day and good god guys are talking like there’s such a good crop out there to keep markets down. Felt like telling them to get outta the fucking car and look inside. Reply With Quote